So to arbitrage, I need to first sell my coins in China, then buy them back outside China. If you know anything about any part of this plan that might help, please contribute.
To sell in China, I can either use an exchange like BTCChina, or sell for cash locally (localbitcoins?)
Once I have the CNY, I will either wire it to Hong Kong through a friend, or fly the cash to Hong Kong. I'm not sure what the rules are in order to be able to just wire straight from a Chinese bank account to my US/UK bank account or bitstamp. I'm a US citizen.
Once I have cash in Hong Kong, I will either wire it to Bitstamp, fly to someone anywhere in the world who will sell me a large volume of Bitcoins at the Bitstamp rate, or convert the cash to gold 1oz pandas and hoard them because they are pretty and shiny.
Thanks for any advice.
If you are planning to maintain a position in Bitcoin throughout the arbitrage, the method you are describing involves a risk that during the time required to wire the cash out of china, the price of Bitcoin on the exchange where you plan to make your final purchase may have increased past the price you bought at in china. Arbitrage by definition should involve a risk-free profit, rather than merely a decent chance of profit if the exchange rates don't change too much in the time required to complete the process. Your method allows you to gain USD essentially risk-free because the time required to buy Bitcoins on Bitstamp, send them to BTC china and sell them for CNY is pretty fast compared to the timescale of price changes. However when you wire out CNY, convert to USD and buy back Bitcoins, this could take a few days, Bitcoin price could change a lot, and it is conceivable that you end up with fewer Bitcoins than you started with.
The best way to arbitrage without risking your Bitcoin or USD holdings would be to have a reserve of cash waiting on Bitstamp to purchase back the coins you sold at essentially the same time as you are selling the coins on BTCchina. So if coins on BTCchina are $1200 and coins on Bitstamp are $1000, you can have $120k and 100 coins on Bitstamp, send the 100 coins to BTCchina, then sell the coins on BTCchina for around $120k and at the same time buy $120k of bitcoins on Bitstamp. This leaves you with 20 more Bitcoins than you started with without any risk to USD or bitcoin holdings.(You could also have gained $20k without risking your original 100BTC, depending on whether your goal is a risk-free increase of USD or BTC) If you send everything to BTCchina you could make twice as much money if all you want to do is gain USD short-term without maintaining a BTC position, but if you want to keep your BTC position, you will have to wait days to get the cash moved back to Bitstamp and the risk efficiency is much lower with respect to your Bitcoin holdings because there is a possibility that your Bitcoin holdings will ultimately be reduced if the Bitstamp price increases substantially while you are waiting for your cash to transfer.