[Forkin' Mess 101] What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017?

Real_Person

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Quote from: d5000 on October 04, 2017, 11:53:55 AM

Quote from: Rinaze on October 04, 2017, 11:34:28 AM

A layman way of explaining why Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold is not even at the same level of discussion for Segwitx2 is basically because Segwitx2 is going to contest being called Bitcoin too, rather than Bitcoin Segwitx2 or whatever other name.

Branding is surely an important factor (and very likely the reason why Bitcoin Cash did so well). The non-existent replay protection is another one.

But in the Segwit2x case, the most important "strength" they can claim they have is the support of two old and established Bitcoin companies: Coinbase and Bitpay. The stance these two entities adopt at the end will be crucial for the success or failure of Segwit2x. I predict: If one of these two leaves the New York Agreement, then Segwit2x is dead.

I am up to date on the situation and closing the thread, thanks all.

carlfebz2

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Quote from: bob123 on October 04, 2017, 11:31:36 AM

Quote from: MrCrank on October 04, 2017, 11:25:20 AM

Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 10:27:36 AM

Sorry, I have not had time to keep up on the current state of the Forkland events. The original intent of this post is to know the status, not to extend/invite debate, thanks.

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

I think that will be new fork after segwit2x.
We will have BTC+BCC + new fork.

Forking is not good.. but price will be rise again and may be rich $8000-8500.
It's my opinion only.

I Dont think price will rise that high that fast.
Price May Drop slightly before the fork, but i think it will recover pretty fast.

Back to topic:
Bitcoin will still be the "real" Bitcoin.
More interesting is the value of btc compared to the new fork. But this will probably be the Same situation as with BCC

Having 3 kind of coins is really pain my eyes but still my loyalty would only go to the original one no matter how many forks would possibly happen on bitcoin. The original would still be the same. Regarding on prices I do have doubts that it would repeat again just like what happened on august 1.

toltec3000

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this week i sudenly realised there is that another fork Bitcoin golg, freemoney, ok 25.10- 1.11

whats the guestimated date for 2x fork ?

whats the sefe time after the 2x fork to move the real core btc anywhere ? that replay protection I consider a fair bit dangerous...

d5000

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Quote from: Rinaze on October 04, 2017, 11:34:28 AM

A layman way of explaining why Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold is not even at the same level of discussion for Segwitx2 is basically because Segwitx2 is going to contest being called Bitcoin too, rather than Bitcoin Segwitx2 or whatever other name.

Branding is surely an important factor (and very likely the reason why Bitcoin Cash did so well). The non-existent replay protection is another one.

But in the Segwit2x case, the most important "strength" they can claim they have is the support of two old and established Bitcoin companies: Coinbase and Bitpay. The stance these two entities adopt at the end will be crucial for the success or failure of Segwit2x. I predict: If one of these two leaves the New York Agreement, then Segwit2x is dead.

JanpriX

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Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 10:27:36 AM

Sorry, I have not had time to keep up on the current state of the Forkland events. The original intent of this post is to know the status, not to extend/invite debate, thanks.

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

I'm in the same boat as you as I became busy in the past few days. But my take on this is that people will still support the legacy chain and the real BTC at the end of 2017 will still be the same. This will just be another BCH even though more companies/exchanges are backing it (Seg2x). The reason that I'm saying this is that companies who agreed on the NYA are backing out 1 by 1. They're seeing that this is just a futile struggle that they shouldn't get involved with and they just focus their attention to other areas of improvements for their own companies. What I'm interested the most is what will be the price of BTC before and after the fork.

cr1776

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Quote from: BrewMaster on October 04, 2017, 10:45:07 AM

the real bitcoin will always be the chain that has the most support from EVERYONE. so far this has been true and hopefully in the future this will continue to be true.
and everyone consists of all the users (nodes) and services and businesses out there. this has to be the majority so you can call it bitcoin.

the rest doesn't matter if they were the old chain, the new chain, the 2x chain, the cash chain, the 1x chain, the gold chain, .... will be an altcoin doomed to fail.

#consensus

Quote from: OmegaStarScream on October 04, 2017, 10:44:03 AM

(21% of them already)

21% of what? of hashrate (that's what matters anyways)?
do you have a source for it?

Hash rate is not “what matters anyway.” Hashrate isn’t irrelevant, but there are many more important things than hashrate.

Rinaze

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A layman way of explaining why Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold is not even at the same level of discussion for Segwitx2 is basically because Segwitx2 is going to contest being called Bitcoin too, rather than Bitcoin Segwitx2 or whatever other name. That means Segwitx2 is going to overlap with Bitcoin itself while the rest of the soft fork is happy enough to acknowledge themselves as an alternate coin.

bob123

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Quote from: MrCrank on October 04, 2017, 11:25:20 AM

Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 10:27:36 AM

Sorry, I have not had time to keep up on the current state of the Forkland events. The original intent of this post is to know the status, not to extend/invite debate, thanks.

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

I think that will be new fork after segwit2x.
We will have BTC+BCC + new fork.

Forking is not good.. but price will be rise again and may be rich $8000-8500.
It's my opinion only.

I Dont think price will rise that high that fast.
Price May Drop slightly before the fork, but i think it will recover pretty fast.

Back to topic:
Bitcoin will still be the "real" Bitcoin.
More interesting is the value of btc compared to the new fork. But this will probably be the Same situation as with BCC

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 10:27:36 AM

Sorry, I have not had time to keep up on the current state of the Forkland events. The original intent of this post is to know the status, not to extend/invite debate, thanks.

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

Hashpower doesn't matter, it can switch back and forth at any time and it doesn't create value on it's own - it follows the value of a coin. But price can also be irrelevant as price is a subject to manipulation - pumps and dumps. So the real answer is community support. Both previous factors can influence it, so it's possible to have a big split in community when there's roughly equal amount of supporters for both chains - in this case people would be fighting until they will come up with some consensus of how to name both chains - maybe even both sides will abandon the name "Bitcoin". But this is very theoretical, right now the community support for 2x is nearly nonexistent, it's only companies and miners who try to push it, but they risk to suffer giant losses if people will reject their fork. So, the most likely outcome is that the current chain and client developed by Core would keep being the real Bitcoin.

d5000

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One month ago I would have said that the "Segwit2x" incarnation would probably "win" the race, because from the relevant mining pools only F2Pool has withdrawn from the NYA agreement.

Now, I'm not so sure anymore because there are some signs of the Segwit2x movement to be weakening. That could lead to the dangerous situation that there will be no "clear winner" for a larger period of time. The problem is that even if "only" 70-80% of the hashrate changes to the new chain, the old one would become extremely congested for more than 3 weeks. High transaction fees and wild price swings will be very likely. (See this pessimistic article for a worst case scenario.)

If it becomes very chaotic, it is even possible that Bitcoin Cash will be the "laughing third" and becomes more stable than Bitcoin.

I'm not desiring that outcome. The best outcome for me would be if the NYA parties cancel the November fork and plan, together with the Core team, a block size increase for 2019. But that probably won't happen ...

MrCrank

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Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 10:27:36 AM

Sorry, I have not had time to keep up on the current state of the Forkland events. The original intent of this post is to know the status, not to extend/invite debate, thanks.

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

I think that will be new fork after segwit2x.
We will have BTC+BCC + new fork.

Forking is not good.. but price will be rise again and may be rich $8000-8500.
It's my opinion only.

jtipt

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Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 10:27:36 AM

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

There seems to be strong back for segwit2x, the forking matter so far is looking exactly like the BCH fork situation. You can keep a track of the backing Here . Honestly, with segwit being already implemented I don't see the point of increase in block size.

buwaytress

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I think there is less and less concern now (from my perspective as a really average user) for what the "real" Bitcoin is. I know it's a much more complex answer than "Bitcoin will always be the real Bitcoin"; the answers already posted above explain why this is true. Each fork that has already happened and is expected to happen claim advantages over legacy Bitcoin, but also have disadvantages. As yet, the problems of Bitcoin as purported by the fork supporters are either overplayed (Bitcoin Gold: mining cartels too powerful) or artificially demonstrated (BCC + SW2: blocks too small).

My simple logic is this. Can I get all Bitcoin adopters (users, merchants, services) to get off this bandwagon and hop onto another?

Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 11:05:43 AM

Thanks for quality answers. As promised, not looking to debate, I will try to remember to close this thread in ~24 to 48 hours.
Will the Civil War be completely ended by then? Cheesy

Nah, not a civil war... since there is no loser conceding to a winner. Just the freedom to disagree or strike a path of your own.

Kprawn

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Quote from: Real_Person on October 04, 2017, 11:05:43 AM

Thanks for quality answers. As promised, not looking to debate, I will try to remember to close this thread in ~24 to 48 hours.
Will the Civil War be completely ended by then? Cheesy

There are not actually a Civil War, it is more like a Cold War. Both sides think their implementation is the fork of choice and

they do not budge on that. I think the original coin/fork will still be the way to go, because it serve the needs of the scaling

we need to go forward... the alternative bring nothing new to the table for me. Roll Eyes

rifiuti

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Quote from: BrewMaster on October 04, 2017, 10:45:07 AM

the real bitcoin will always be the chain that has the most support from EVERYONE. so far this has been true and hopefully in the future this will continue to be true.
and everyone consists of all the users (nodes) and services and businesses out there. this has to be the majority so you can call it bitcoin.

the rest doesn't matter if they were the old chain, the new chain, the 2x chain, the cash chain, the 1x chain, the gold chain, .... will be an altcoin doomed to fail.

#consensus

Quote from: OmegaStarScream on October 04, 2017, 10:44:03 AM

(21% of them already)

21% of what? of hashrate (that's what matters anyways)?
do you have a source for it?

%21 of the "companies" clearly you know nothing regarding to the agreement.

Real_Person

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Thanks for quality answers. As promised, not looking to debate, I will try to remember to close this thread in ~24 to 48 hours.
Will the Civil War be completely ended by then? Cheesy

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

the real bitcoin will always be the chain that has the most support from EVERYONE. so far this has been true and hopefully in the future this will continue to be true.
and everyone consists of all the users (nodes) and services and businesses out there. this has to be the majority so you can call it bitcoin.

the rest doesn't matter if they were the old chain, the new chain, the 2x chain, the cash chain, the 1x chain, the gold chain, .... will be an altcoin doomed to fail.

#consensus

Quote from: OmegaStarScream on October 04, 2017, 10:44:03 AM

(21% of them already)

21% of what? of hashrate (that's what matters anyways)?
do you have a source for it?

OmegaStarScream

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The SegWit2x attack like I like to call it is more powerful then BitcoinCash indeed because more services are backing it however the outcome will most likely be the same as BCH. We can already see companies that participated and agreed to NYA withdrawing (21% of them already) and It's just a matter of time until more will join because SegWit is being implemented in multiple exchanges and wallets, and fees will continue to get lower and they will realize that there is absolutely no need for a blocksize increase.

Real_Person

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"Quietly Making Noise"

Sorry, I have not had time to keep up on the current state of the Forkland events. The original intent of this post is to know the status, not to extend/invite debate, thanks.

What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? Has that been already determined or will it be fought out on exchanges and mining pools?

Are the people backing Seg2x (still) attempting to have exchanges (and the world) call that one Bitcoin/BTC?

Topic: [Forkin' Mess 101] What will be the real Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017? (Read 291 times)