Of course, all of this is speculation, since I don't have access to the server logs.
Fwiw, though, there were over 4.5k regged users on when the problems were happening, probably peaked not too far from the record-number on in April. Closer to 3k, now. I thought it was just an extremely heavy "normal" load on the Pirate news.
ETA: Maybe it's not over? I'm used to 200-1000ms latency wherever I go, so I don't notice it much.