Topic: From 280 PH to 325 PH Overnight Rise? (Read 2136 times)

Things are definitely going up. There's a steady baseline trend of about 2% to 2.5% per difficulty change. The one before last looks like an overshoot, the last one was an undershoot and both are well within a pretty normal statistical range over a 2 week period. The upwards trend makes sense as older equipment will be steadily replaced by large miners.

I'm unsure how you've estimated a 15% change though? The current difficulty is 41.2B and the peak I can see for the blue line was about 45.3B (it's fallen back a little since then) which would be ~10%, but the blue trend isn't much higher than it was in the middle of the last difficulty window where it was up around 43.8B, and that's only 3.4% higher than the recent peak.

If you look at the daily stats there' nothing very interesting about the last few days: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1×pan=&scale=1&address=

The most interesting thing is a few days of bad luck just over a week ago and one day of very bad luck on the 13th, both of which depressed the numbers on the last difficulty change.

We'll be responsible for our small part of that as we continue to bring more miners on-line, with even more on the way.

Using anything less than a week or so does mean pure statistical luck can create all sorts weird artefacts, but we know of quite a few farms that continue to strongly invest given the long term views haven't really changed so I'd generally concur with you view.

Justin
www.megamine.com

You're not looking at day to day. Even the grey line is a 504 block average (/6 per hour/24 = 3.5 days).
The blue line is a week average and its up by ~15% compared to last change.

Its clearly going up.

None of this is out of line with statistical variance with a small (about 2% per difficulty period) steady increase in hash rates.

If everyone's hash rates remain constant then the difficulty will still go up and down by surprisingly large amounts. Day-to-day > 20% changes are really quite common.

KnCMiner has begun shipping the "Bonus Miners" to all those that ordered Neptune's as part of the original "Customer Appreication" batch.  (The Customer Appreciation batch was the first batch of Neptunes that was only made available to people who had previously purchased Juputer and other previous-generation KnC machines.)

I have no idea how many of these Bonus Neptunes are going out.  Could be hundreds or thousands (some people converted their Bonus Neptune order to a Bonus Titan order--Titan isn't a SHA-256 miner.)  Each one can hash at around 3.3 TH.

I have not personally received any shipping notification of mine yet, but there are a few posts on the KnC forums that have received their UPS shipping confirmations and at least one person that has already received the Bonus Neptune.  It seems some people aren't even bothering to take them out of the box, though.  So if they aren't mining, you may see a bunch of Neptunes pop up on eBay soon.  Since they didn't take it out of the box yet, people are wondering whether it is actually new, or a used unit taken out of KnC's farm.

Who knows maybe its the miners that turned back their rigs one week ago when price peaked at $315 or so. Maybe in 2-3 days it will level off and start to head down

don't think so! is going back up! check the graph

One day hashrate is back under 300 PHs so this topic can be closed as another variance false alarm

It didn't happen overnight.
I guess it was a gradual increase in the hashrate. I guess most of the people who added to this hash rate were the mining rig manufacturers themselves.

It may be possible that people mining other sha256 altcoin are changing their miners back to Bitcoin. It may also be the luck, the network happens to be mining more blocks at a faster rate due to the luck or perhaps mining companies testing their new ASICS.  The network total mining hashrate is only for estimation only, it is not 100% accurate as no one can count the machine's hashrates accurately.

I don't think it happened overnight, rather than few days.

Keep in mind that on bitcoin wisdom, even the shortest period trend line (the grey one) is based on 504 blocks. It seems highly unlikely the current spike is just a statistical anomaly (or normality if you prefer ).

It could be previously turned off hardware being turned on again, but more likely IMO is that a next gen asic has arrived. Bitfury was supposed to bring their 28nm 0.2W/GH online by the end of last year. AFAIK, that didnt happen, maybe it did now. Asicminer and SP with very similar specs shouldnt be very far behind.

could easily be variance
could be me toying with the diff by turning my farms on at the right moment in the cycle
is actually worth it despite the 'price'

Don't underestimate the size of the daily variation in hash rate due to statistical noise.  The hash rate regularly varies by 10% to 20% from day to day solely due to statistical variance.  It is only over a week or longer that actual changes in the hash rate become clear.

You should assume a 10 to 20% error in the hash rate if data is taken over just one day.

If data is taken over a longer period the error due to statistical variance declines but it is still there.  

In particular you can still expect the hash rate difficulty changes every two weeks to fluctuate within a range of about plus and minus 2-4% solely due to statistical noise even if there is no change to the total actual network hash rate.  


The mathematical details.

There is a 10 minute block average solve time with a 10 minute variance (poisson distribution).  So the standard deviation percentage error in solve time is 100 / sqrt(number blocks). Most of the time the difficulty change will be within 2 standard deviations.  

There are 144 blocks found on average each day so for one day the standard deviation  error is 100 / sqrt(144) or about 8%.  Two deviations are 16%

There are 2016 blocks found on average between each difficulty change so for each change the standard deviation is 100 / sqrt(2016) or about 2%.  Two deviations are 4%.  So hash difficulty changes may be frequently in error by 2% and possibly as high as 4%.  

it can not be due to variance??? Who's turning on new miners? New Chinese mining farm(s)? Don't they know btc price is in the dumps???