Topic: From DEGENERATE GAMBLER and Back... (Read 377 times)
I take it regression to the mean is the opposite of the gambler's fallacy, so I would say no to that.
I think that's pretty obvious.
Luck is involved everywhere in life.
Luck is involved everywhere in life.
I have always been fascinated with sports and fell in love at very young age. I am also a gambling enthusiast as well. The feeling that came over my body 15 years ago when I placed my first wager on NCAA football. At times it has taken over my life as I searched for a way to balance my true passion (The Big 3 as they are called here in the United States) along with the interest in a game that it created for me by sports-betting. I would categorize myself as degenerate gambler and fit the definition to a tee. I can say one thing; I always paid my debts and rest assured I sure as hell of a lot more than I collected. I've always wondered why I was unable to control and harness the impulsive decision making that would sweep over me. Later somewhere along the way I realized I had become a "Degenerate Gambler." I started to research any kind of information that I could find on the subject and educated myself the best that I could pertaining me to my self-diagnosis. The things I discovered were astounding.
Why Do Some People Win, While Others Seem to Always Lose
Quite simply; it's all about the numbers (the numbers never lie). That's why I never put much stock in the, "It's all about luck." Gambler's and as some individuals refer to themselves as "Sports Investors," because they claim they have a system that never loses. My response is you make your own luck." If you prepare in advance with the numbers in consideration, you can to a small degree offset the variance which comes with sports-betting. Are you going to lose games because one team is a -41.5 point favorite, pull out all their starters; and we all know how the story ends. The back-up quarterback drives the opposing team down the field against the 3rd Team defense and throws a touchdown pass with 11 seconds to go, and after the extra point your winning wager goes in smoke. That half-court shot at the buzzer the underdog getting +2.5 points, cost you a thousand bucks. That's variance it will always occur as will the regression to the mean. Over the course of a season, you’re going to win games in similar fashion as the above mentioned but you will lose some as well. In my humble opinion (I am certainly no mathematics expert or a professional handicapper), luck has nothing to do with it is relative to the numbers. The questions I pose are; "Can you handle the swings that are inevitable in sports-betting? What are your thoughts on the “Luck Factor?" Is it real or a term used by those who would bet on a Hockey game taking place in Russia, when it’s 3:00AM in the United States and it's the only sport in which there is a current line you can find to wager on at the time.
I pose three questions to the sports bettor:
1. Variance- Does account for the swings in Sports Betting.
2. The Luck Factor- Does it exist?
3. Regression to the mean- Can this be used to provide a bettor with a small advantage?
Why Do Some People Win, While Others Seem to Always Lose
Quite simply; it's all about the numbers (the numbers never lie). That's why I never put much stock in the, "It's all about luck." Gambler's and as some individuals refer to themselves as "Sports Investors," because they claim they have a system that never loses. My response is you make your own luck." If you prepare in advance with the numbers in consideration, you can to a small degree offset the variance which comes with sports-betting. Are you going to lose games because one team is a -41.5 point favorite, pull out all their starters; and we all know how the story ends. The back-up quarterback drives the opposing team down the field against the 3rd Team defense and throws a touchdown pass with 11 seconds to go, and after the extra point your winning wager goes in smoke. That half-court shot at the buzzer the underdog getting +2.5 points, cost you a thousand bucks. That's variance it will always occur as will the regression to the mean. Over the course of a season, you’re going to win games in similar fashion as the above mentioned but you will lose some as well. In my humble opinion (I am certainly no mathematics expert or a professional handicapper), luck has nothing to do with it is relative to the numbers. The questions I pose are; "Can you handle the swings that are inevitable in sports-betting? What are your thoughts on the “Luck Factor?" Is it real or a term used by those who would bet on a Hockey game taking place in Russia, when it’s 3:00AM in the United States and it's the only sport in which there is a current line you can find to wager on at the time.
I pose three questions to the sports bettor:
1. Variance- Does account for the swings in Sports Betting.
2. The Luck Factor- Does it exist?
3. Regression to the mean- Can this be used to provide a bettor with a small advantage?
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