Even these estimation may not hold for more than 10 years.
They won't. Take into account that arbitrarily tinkering with the block size limit would result in more reckless usage of the chain space. Meaning perhaps even more Ordinals, and more transactions in general.
Can you explain what you mean by I/O jamming?
It's usual phenomenon when hardware has to deal with lots of data, as in blockchain. There are limitations (read and write speeds), background processes that might interfere, the drive health as a whole. I think it might have to do with the architecture of the drive; Bitcoin Core doesn't work best on everything.
Does it mean that what was defined earlier for the average block size doesn’t matter anymore and would not matter in the future also? Like one post above shows how the block average size has grown above 1 MB and there are also few blocks with 2 MB size.
Also, as far as I have read if the block size is rising then it will definitely cause the problems at mining end. For example if there x time that is required to solve the transactions in one block with 1 MB size then ultimately in the future things could be worst if block size grows let’s say to 10MB per block!!!
Secondly, this could be problem when downloading the core. If it is already needing 1 TB SSD, then what would happen in the future?