Why prediction markets are so accurate or are they?..
Futarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national welfare, and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect..
You do know in life we only act on what happens there and then we can BET on the future BUT doesn't mean it will be so..
I bet on the horses now and then if i win on sports bets BUT on william hill they have a prediction market for the horses and what you do is press go and the computer picks what it thinks will be the best horse to win on in that chosen race NOW it never really wins 1 in 10 goes do you know why? because Futarchy is bullshit..
I will explain.. the fact you have the horse rider cheating the bookies cheating the trainers cheating all facts the Futarchy cannot predict
..
Now take POLITICS what cheating goes on in politics? so did the futarchy take this into account? also what about bad weather can Futarchy predict your electric blew and turned your power off ?..Snow less people out means less buying meaning less sales ..
You do know that only 10% make money on trading on the stocks as a good living..Now with your Futarchy it should be 100% making money on the stocks?..
The answer will be no because you and i know Futarchy is about as good as flipping a coin..
Imagine you have officials who decide what technology or an outcome to put forward on a blockchain then you have Futarchy determine the best outcome will the officials not have to vote on which upgrades or technology will suit your blockchain for the Futarchy to then decide which it will pick?..
So no matter what there is a "VOTE" by the officials to decide which technology to choose to let the prediction computer decide on the best outcome that the "OFFICIALS"
decided to put forward ..
I can decide with 10 of my officials 10 of the best that suit us 10 not you lot but my 10 officials on the technology that best suits us ..
Then even if the Futarchy picks 1 which it will we 10 still win..NO not you lot ..
Now imagine the markets? their is already prediction machines and how many win? not many because it's very hard to predict the future and a future were we bet on it
WHY because when humans bet we cheat..
All prediction Futarchy does is take the stats and give you worthless information because so many unforeseen things can happen..
Take football we all know watching the games who will be a good goal scoring goals so we bet on the outcome they will score again BUT do they on when you bet on it?..
All that will happen is the bots will see what money as gone on the most and do the opposite so more lose than win < your prediction machine for you
..
A crystal ball is just as good..
Futarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national welfare, and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect..
You do know in life we only act on what happens there and then we can BET on the future BUT doesn't mean it will be so..
I bet on the horses now and then if i win on sports bets BUT on william hill they have a prediction market for the horses and what you do is press go and the computer picks what it thinks will be the best horse to win on in that chosen race NOW it never really wins 1 in 10 goes do you know why? because Futarchy is bullshit..
I will explain.. the fact you have the horse rider cheating the bookies cheating the trainers cheating all facts the Futarchy cannot predict
..Now take POLITICS what cheating goes on in politics? so did the futarchy take this into account? also what about bad weather can Futarchy predict your electric blew and turned your power off ?..Snow less people out means less buying meaning less sales ..
You do know that only 10% make money on trading on the stocks as a good living..Now with your Futarchy it should be 100% making money on the stocks?..
The answer will be no because you and i know Futarchy is about as good as flipping a coin..
Imagine you have officials who decide what technology or an outcome to put forward on a blockchain then you have Futarchy determine the best outcome will the officials not have to vote on which upgrades or technology will suit your blockchain for the Futarchy to then decide which it will pick?..
So no matter what there is a "VOTE" by the officials to decide which technology to choose to let the prediction computer decide on the best outcome that the "OFFICIALS"
decided to put forward ..
I can decide with 10 of my officials 10 of the best that suit us 10 not you lot but my 10 officials on the technology that best suits us ..
Then even if the Futarchy picks 1 which it will we 10 still win
..NO not you lot ..Now imagine the markets? their is already prediction machines and how many win? not many because it's very hard to predict the future and a future were we bet on it
WHY because when humans bet we cheat..
All prediction Futarchy does is take the stats and give you worthless information because so many unforeseen things can happen..
Take football we all know watching the games who will be a good goal scoring goals so we bet on the outcome they will score again BUT do they on when you bet on it?..
All that will happen is the bots will see what money as gone on the most and do the opposite so more lose than win < your prediction machine for you
..A crystal ball is just as good..
we where all lied in school when we where told the central bank must be independent from the parliaments and the government, it resulted in the central bank being the the master or dictator that holds all strings, and now we are about to get rid of it.
