Topic: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 (Read 3823 times)

Jally should be profitable if the difficulty goes that high... just not quickly...

The line I quoted by BFL_Josh was on the 10-08-2012

And you are right, only bfl, but dont forget its the bulk of it.

please take into consideration that not everyone bought GPU for mining, there is a lot of people who bought GPU for common usage and use them also for mining..

in case of 676Th hashrate Ebay will be full of Jalapenos as soon as their owners realize that they will mine nothing with them even the 60Gh Single is non-profitable in this case..

b.

Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information.
Plus only BFL...

~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards.

IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio

The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x

Hi

Here I am quoting Josh from BFL

"My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far."

I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know!

Keeping it simple as I can.
IMHO

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-sc-pre-order-information-monarch-orders-too-89685

Approx 2500 orders there will be more orders as time goes on of course but then every order number doesn't = an actual unit.

I just assumed the SC single per order = 40Ghash

So I'm gonna give it a range

1250-3000 orders

50 Thash -> 120Thash  4-10X difficulty

Personally I think most GPUs will become unprofitable at the lower end of that threshold and I'm not sure how many FPGAs are out there so I'd say -80% of the current hash rate based on GPUs will dissolve. So +/- on that by 20%

As for Shipping times: BFL gave themselves till OCT +2 months and according to our records they are about two weeks slower than they say 4-6 weeks = 6-8 weeks.

I'd say the very first shipments for the first month of orders will start shipping last week of Sept until as late as the start of the new year. (Oct + 2 months plus "awe screw it it's only two more weeks late" factor)
There's roughly 2000 orders for the first month that technically need to be shipped by the end of that period. But If they get the first batch out the door close to their stated targets then would the guys further down the order list really ask for their money back at that point?

So I'm thinking
4-10X difficulty increase (+/- 20% Hash) between Oct 2012 and Feb 2013

But what happens over the following Six months should be interesting...
If you just tripled your return on your initial BFL product by being an early adopter wouldn't it make sense to buy MORE while the difficulty is low so that when things stabilize you'll have a bigger slice of the pie?

I think the graph of total hash power will look surprisingly similar to the above. Spike, small dip, flatten out with easy rise.

Inaba has already confirmed that it'll be well under 10x for BFL orders.

Predictions on where things will go within 12 months sit at around 10-15x max. My own calculations last month put it around 7x for the first 3 months or so.

it is all estimate because it all has to be calculated on the theory that asic systems bring what is promised [...]

[...] and they could just suddenly adjust there specs 2 mnd before shipments ... nobody knows.

Already know. The majority of those orders are fakes or incomplete. They can't be used to create an accurate model of future hash rates.

Any backing behind your estimate, or is it just a hunch?

Don't forget the ASIC order #'s started around ~1600. My estimate is the total network hashrate will be around 400TH/s by Jan 2013.

I read your paper, it was very good. I came up with a similar number in August, 8x, but for slightly different reasons. I just can't find the link where I posted it....

I wonder if Inaba made his calculations of "under 10x" before or after he knew of the final specs...

I did some quick figuring,
of the first ~200 order numbers about ~50 were reported. (ignoring dates only paying attention to order numbers ~1650- ~1850)
So assuming that 100% of those 200 order #s were actually turned in to ASIC orders AND reported you'd have a lower limit of 4:1 ratio of order numbers to actual orders...
Of course it's hard to believe that would continue across the entire order list.
However it may serve as a possible lower limit to all this guesstimation.

so 1/4 of ~20x is of course ~5x increase.

So ~5x increase to ~20x seems to be a fairly reasonable possibility.

Thoughts? data?

* most of valid orders are 3.5GH jalapenos

I'm just re-posting this math from the BFL ASIC orders page...


30.768 Th confirmed so far...
455 Confirmed orders...

67.62GH per order average...
* 7029 orders =
475.315Th

19x Current ~25Th

No adjustments for unfilled orders

Oh duh...  my mistake. Yes the block reward will be at 25 by then... guess I'll have to half those estimates...

I may have to make another poll:
Which will have greater returns?
Buy ASIC Mining Hardware or just invest in BTC directly.

I'm also coming to the conclusion that despite the technological leap that ASICs are, the $ Invested to $ Returns ratio will be similar to what we had in the GPU days once dificulty/hash rate balances out with most of the gains being as a result of power savings.

I'm also coming to the conclusion that despite the technological leap that ASICs are, the $ Invested to $ Returns ratio will be similar to what we had in the GPU days once dificulty/hash rate balances out with most of the gains being as a result of power savings.

I have a question, does network hash rate directly correlate to difficulty?
For example, right now if 21 TH/sec with a difficulty of 2.86M were to double to 42TH/sec would that directly double the difficulty to 5.72M and so on?