Topic: Future of BTC? (Read 926 times)
By the time 75% of all Bitcoins have been mined, fiat currency and the modern global banking system will be little more than a bad memory recorded in the history textbooks.
Lots of misinformation, and wild guessing in this thread, with very little acknowledgement about how bitcoin actually works.
A few people have pointed out a few pieces of the puzzle.
Yes, transaction fees will have to support the network once bitcoin stops issuing newly created bitcoins.
Yes, Bitcoins can be subdivided, so 21 Million is plenty.
The first thing to keep in mind is that we call it "mining" because those doing it are being rewarded mostly with newly created bitcoins. Essentially they are being paid through inflation. In reality, the purpose is not the creation of new bitcoins. The purpose is confirming transactions to establish a consensus on the ordering of transactions. Creation of new bitcoins is just a way to get the system up and running and a reasonably fair way to distribute the currency.
Every 4 years the amount of new bitcoins that are awarded for a solved block is cut in half (50 BTC, 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC, etc). Meanwhile, as bitcoin gains popularity, the total value of the transaction fees increases. Since the block awards both the subsidy of new coins AND all the transaction fees of all the transactions first confirmed in the block, eventually the total fees will be more bitcoins than the new coin subsidy. At that time, perhaps people will stop calling it "mining" and start calling it "transaction processing".
The new coin subsidy will continue to shrink, and the transaction fees will therefore become a larger and larger percentage of the total block reward. Eventually (somewhere around the year 2140 when most all of us are long since dead) the block reward will shrink from 0.00000001 BTC per block to 0 BTC per block. By then, the system will have been almost entirely supported by transaction fees for several decades.
Since "transaction processors" will want to solve the block in order to get the transaction fees, pools and ASIC will almost certainly still exist. ASIC make it faster and cheaper to solve hashes, making it more likely that you will solve the block instead of some other miner. If even one "transaction processor" is running an ASIC, then every other "transaction processor" will want to run ASIC as well so they can compete for the transaction fees. If NOBODY is running any ASIC, then any miner that decides to run an ASIC will suddenly get a much larger portion of the transaction fees, since they'll suddenly solve many more blocks. If there are enough people (or companies) participating in "transaction processing", then each will only solve a block by themselves once every few months, or years. By pooling their efforts, they can make sure that blocks are solved more frequently within their pool, and then each can receive a fair share based on their hash power.
A few people have pointed out a few pieces of the puzzle.
Yes, transaction fees will have to support the network once bitcoin stops issuing newly created bitcoins.
Yes, Bitcoins can be subdivided, so 21 Million is plenty.
The first thing to keep in mind is that we call it "mining" because those doing it are being rewarded mostly with newly created bitcoins. Essentially they are being paid through inflation. In reality, the purpose is not the creation of new bitcoins. The purpose is confirming transactions to establish a consensus on the ordering of transactions. Creation of new bitcoins is just a way to get the system up and running and a reasonably fair way to distribute the currency.
Every 4 years the amount of new bitcoins that are awarded for a solved block is cut in half (50 BTC, 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC, etc). Meanwhile, as bitcoin gains popularity, the total value of the transaction fees increases. Since the block awards both the subsidy of new coins AND all the transaction fees of all the transactions first confirmed in the block, eventually the total fees will be more bitcoins than the new coin subsidy. At that time, perhaps people will stop calling it "mining" and start calling it "transaction processing".
The new coin subsidy will continue to shrink, and the transaction fees will therefore become a larger and larger percentage of the total block reward. Eventually (somewhere around the year 2140 when most all of us are long since dead) the block reward will shrink from 0.00000001 BTC per block to 0 BTC per block. By then, the system will have been almost entirely supported by transaction fees for several decades.
Since "transaction processors" will want to solve the block in order to get the transaction fees, pools and ASIC will almost certainly still exist. ASIC make it faster and cheaper to solve hashes, making it more likely that you will solve the block instead of some other miner. If even one "transaction processor" is running an ASIC, then every other "transaction processor" will want to run ASIC as well so they can compete for the transaction fees. If NOBODY is running any ASIC, then any miner that decides to run an ASIC will suddenly get a much larger portion of the transaction fees, since they'll suddenly solve many more blocks. If there are enough people (or companies) participating in "transaction processing", then each will only solve a block by themselves once every few months, or years. By pooling their efforts, they can make sure that blocks are solved more frequently within their pool, and then each can receive a fair share based on their hash power.
What happens to Bitcoin happens. It'll always be a currency - something physical and digital. Even if it dies out, something will happen to it again. You can't erase or delete a Bitcoin. What makes you think it can be killed?
Well, mining pools will not be needed, nor asics.
But you still have txfee, so people will still mine it, thus pushing blocks through.
I do not feel it will affect much.
But you still have txfee, so people will still mine it, thus pushing blocks through.
I do not feel it will affect much.
This completely relies on how the "mainstream" public adopts Bitcoin.
21 million bitcoin is not enough to go around if everyone in the wanted some.
2.1 quadrillion satoshis are not enough? What universe do you inhabit?
What is a perfect system ?
A working system that it don't change over the time.
P2P network are always like this ... at the beginning, the developper support the network ... then the geek and developper can correct the software ... then the average computer user fanatic (non-geek like iphone user) and then ... the "value" of the network explose.
And what does the network.
Nothing.
It works like it always does before.
Network is not a human, it don't crash and don't destroy and rebuild and destroy in a loop.
that's why banks have no chance in the futur.
A working system that it don't change over the time.
P2P network are always like this ... at the beginning, the developper support the network ... then the geek and developper can correct the software ... then the average computer user fanatic (non-geek like iphone user) and then ... the "value" of the network explose.
And what does the network.
Nothing.
It works like it always does before.
Network is not a human, it don't crash and don't destroy and rebuild and destroy in a loop.
that's why banks have no chance in the futur.
It depends on whether bitcoin will be adopted by the public. If governments and banks around the world regulate bitcoin exchanges so much that it became impractical to use bitcoin, it may loose a lot of interest. Bitcoin will not die, it will be a niche currency. If bitcoin is adopted by the masses, 21 million bitcoin is not enough to go around if everyone in the wanted some. The demand would be astronomical.
Then it should in theory become more valuable as there is no supply that can be made by anyone the only way for people to get it would be through trading which makes it moer valuable.
So I understand that BTC is being mined and it will be a long time before
all 21 Mil units will be mined, but what once they are what happens to BTC?
Like will people still try to buy it or will it die out?
I just want to know what people have to say about this xDD
all 21 Mil units will be mined, but what once they are what happens to BTC?
Like will people still try to buy it or will it die out?
I just want to know what people have to say about this xDD
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