Gambling experiment - Doubling small stake for big gains

wxa7115

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Quote from: goinmerry on April 20, 2021, 04:59:31 PM

An experiment where we already see the result.

Slowly but surely is not applicable in parlay betting. Even combining bets with lower than 1.3 odds, it's not a safe bet.

You might be hitting winnings at first but it hard to maintain a winning streak in parlay betting.

At the end of the day this is not going to help anyone win, casinos are full of very smart people and they have algorithms that allows them to see if there is any flaw on the odds they give to the player and using a parlay is not going to suddenly increase your odds of winning against the casino, this is the same that happens with betting progressions, people may deceive themselves thinking they are getting an edge over the casino but with the odds being unchanged then there is nothing you can do to win long term against them.

However that does not mean casinos cannot be beaten but in order for that to happen you need to be an even bigger expert than the ones they have and be capable of evaluating odds better than they can and get and edge over them that way, something which is not easy to do at all.

goinmerry

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Quote from: aoluain on April 21, 2021, 06:22:42 AM

I understand you can increase your winnings but Is there a massive odds difference
between using a parlay or just doing single bets with low odds?

Yes. A Parlay is a combined odds of your picks. That's why others think it's an easy win if they will pick a set of low odds to make a parlay.

In a single bet, you are only focusing on a single game. More likely to win as you don't need to worry about your other bet to win which is in the case of parlay, you need to hit all of your bets to win. Even let's say your parlay is composed of 3 bets @ 1.3 each, still a tough road to win as all those bets should be won.

Trofo

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Second try also busted quite soon. I managed to get first ticket correct and then immediately lost on the second one. You know what they say, third time is the charm, so I will give it another try when I get my next boost on Saturday. If this one ends as quickly as first two I'll just consider this experiment as total failure and give it a rest.

I see there is some discussion about odds. My rule is to never play odds lower than 1.5 when betting for high stakes. There is just no value there for me. This challenge is something different so I did not put any restrictions. This is just what title says, an experiment, and I am using super small stakes so I don't really care if I loose in the beginning of the challenge. It will get more interesting and I'll do more strict management if I ever get to higher amounts.

aoluain

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Quote from: goinmerry on April 20, 2021, 04:59:31 PM

An experiment where we already see the result.

Slowly but surely is not applicable in parlay betting. Even combining bets with lower than 1.3 odds, it's not a safe bet.

You might be hitting winnings at first but it hard to maintain a winning streak in parlay betting.

I understand you can increase your winnings but Is there a massive odds difference
between using a parlay or just doing single bets with low odds?

DoublerHunter

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^ Yeah, I have seen this before but I do not remember where I encounter this somewhere else, it probably here or in the other forum.
This is very usual and we were practicing the same approach before. However, on our end, we ended up not really good. But it does not mean it would apply to everybody. What I can only give is for you to have good luck with the next ticket, we will never know. As long as you still take the responsibility to place the amount you can afford to lose, you never lose my friend. I will support you with this. Have fun and good luck with your experiment.

chaser15

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Quote from: aoluain on April 20, 2021, 05:15:34 PM

This is an interesting concept. Betting with low odds, the theory should be
that you will win more often but by going all in on each bet will mean you only
have to loose once to be liquidated.

The downside is, it's not actually a single low odds bet. OP is doing a parlay with it which it makes more difficult to win.

1.3 is not an odds you can call as safe. OP needs to win on each bet which increases the risks more.

It's not an experiment but OP is just taking chances. How come it can be called an experiment as OP is just doing a common parlay with its desired odds.

Rengga Jati

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Quote from: Trofo on April 17, 2021, 05:52:39 AM

To see how far I can push it. I am starting with just 0.0000649 BTC and I will continue to bet it all until I reach serious money level (maybe around half a BTC) or loose. It is possible that I will split the bank in case things are going well.

Expectations:
I am expecting to bust out after couple of tickets, this is not a system and there is no fail safe. It is just experiment to see how far I can go. I don't think I ever had a run lasting more than couple of days so this is a way to try and challenge that.

Sometimes, reality doesn't meet the expectation.
Well, whatever your plan, ensure that you are really aware of doing this, making your own decision based on the situation of your ways.
Besides, you can also manage your own funds and risks if you are betting more in gambling, moreover about half of BTC. If you are really ready, you can make it, ut if not, you can rearrange your strategy.

Sometimes, we are very attracted to bonuses or rewards but we cannot manage our self-control very well/.

aoluain

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This is an interesting concept. Betting with low odds, the theory should be
that you will win more often but by going all in on each bet will mean you only
have to loose once to be liquidated.

Even though there is no such thing as a sure bet I imagine the favourites win
most of the time.

goinmerry

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An experiment where we already see the result.

Slowly but surely is not applicable in parlay betting. Even combining bets with lower than 1.3 odds, it's not a safe bet.

You might be hitting winnings at first but it hard to maintain a winning streak in parlay betting.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Hypnosis00 on April 17, 2021, 03:28:05 PM

I've seen this kind of experiment before, and I personally tried it my own, betting on small odds through parlay and even using some martingale method on it but it doesn't work in the long run. Anyway, your outcome might be different, so I like to wish you luck and success on this experiment of yours so you can go with the big money.

As it have been explained many times martingale does not work because it does not change the overall odds of the game which means that regardless of how unlikely you think it is you are going to eventually lose your capital to the casino.

The only way to beat the casino is to be capable of selecting the team that is going to win at a rate higher than the house edge the casino has and this is incredibly difficult to do since only a handful of players can do this consistently enough to get some profits out of sports betting.

aysg76

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Trying new strategies and doing experiments is not bad until you are in situation of losing more.You can always try to combine your small wins which you cannot cash out to a single bet with 2-3 multiple of odds and if you are lucky you might be able to win big which you can cash out in the end.Nobody has any perfect strategy for gambling but your develop your owns with time, knowledge,skills and experience.The main point is to be constant and not loose hope until you win..

AicecreaME

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Not that bad, I think having 2 odds is a great way to have an experiment, low risk low reward but still you'll have your result. The only problems always comes after the result, if you won in your experiment, the chance of continuing with higher odds is high because you're confident that you could win it again, if you lost on your experiment, you could still do the same or put higher odds so that if you won, you'll have more profits, but mostly just a trap.

maxreish

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Hope you'll be successful on that experiment, pas sports bet parlay doesnt seem to be always wind as those low odds are just a bait. But picking the best teams can be a good way to win your bet.

But i still prefer single bet though parlays give you big odds but the winning chances for single bets are higher than those parlay bets.

Trofo

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First ticket in second try was success so here comes next one:

It is very bad offer today and if I were further into experiment, ie. already won several tickets, I would probably skip this day. Did not want to play anything on Liverpool game because of the Superleague news otherwise I would add both to score on ticket.

Espanyol is in the superb form and I am taking x2 only because they would be happy with the draw as well.
Monteiro is better player for me and I don't know why he is not favorite today. Maybe bookies know something I don't. Even if he looses 4.5 handicap offers us a solid margin for error.

imstillthebest

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Quote from: swogerino on April 19, 2021, 02:52:58 AM

I think as long as you are trying with free money coming from bonuses you are going to win it one time.This is not entirely luck dependent as in sport betting when you play several bets you are going to win one and this experiment may work in the long time.

not entirely luck but small luck is need . op has a skill in sport but he lost the 1st bet that he made because he is not lucky but he is not stopping .
lets wish him a good luck in his further plays .
playing with a risky style as op is interesting to watch because he is showing if how long he can with continous bets but this is advisable to do if we are using the money that did not came from our main capital because of how risky it is .

swogerino

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I think as long as you are trying with free money coming from bonuses you are going to win it one time.This is not entirely luck dependent as in sport betting when you play several bets you are going to win one and this experiment may work in the long time.

Lorence.xD

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Quote from: Ulven on April 17, 2021, 04:08:29 PM

I think it depends on luck, if you are lucky your expectations will be correct and otherwise the result will be disappointing. Indeed, if you have experience with your options while betting over time, you will have achieved some wins, compensating for some losses. I previously won a lot of bets on the Premier League and Spanish League matches in this way that I think is effective in the long term!!!

It's not luck, it's just probability and analysis of the bet. Good luck with the experiment and hope that OP can get a profit out of it even though OP lost his first bet.

leea-1334

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Sorry to see that your very first bet failed, and in fact on the very first leg. This was a super sure game. West Ham flying and scoring like nobody else and versus a team that finds it so hard to score. Penalty cancelled out own goal but this was not to be. Oh well,,, good luck and keep trying as they say:)

danherbias07

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First time I heard about monthly bonuses in Stake.com.
Yeah, I am still a newbie in their platform and I had been neglecting the e-mails they sent me which is where they provide the link for the bonus.
Just got it now, thanks to this thread mentioning about it. I only have 88 sats in my monthly bonuses. Cheesy

Doesn't matter, that's still free money.

So, this is a new experiment with just using the bonuses. Unique. I will monitor how far it can go. Good luck.

germsite

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Quote from: Trofo on April 17, 2021, 05:52:39 AM

I just got my monthly rewards on Stake and since I did not use them much in the last month they were very small indeed. Idea is place full amount on one ticket every day. Odds will probably be between 2-3 and if the ticket is won, everything goes to the next ticket.

Goals:
To see how far I can push it. I am starting with just 0.0000649 BTC and I will continue to bet it all until I reach serious money level (maybe around half a BTC) or loose. It is possible that I will split the bank in case things are going well.

Expectations:
I am expecting to bust out after couple of tickets, this is not a system and there is no fail safe. It is just experiment to see how far I can go. I don't think I ever had a run lasting more than couple of days so this is a way to try and challenge that.

Re-buy:
I should get some small amounts on Stake every Saturday as weekly bonus so I'll probably give this challenge a couple of tries.

Ticket 1:

Try 1:
Ended on the first ticket. See above.

Try 2:
Starting stake: 0.00004878
Current stake: in play
Ticket 1

Cool, for how long are you going to run that experiment and how many tries will you give it?

My prediction is you will never make it further than match day #4. Tongue

I got you correctly you want to place one bet per day and see how far you can get? Do you apply minimum odds somehow or just bet whatever you like?

I have done similar experiments before and was amazed how often one gets surprised by an unexpected loss or result in general. Even the big clubs usually fail frequently.

Twentyonepaylots

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It's actually a fair technique to use when you have just enough for a single game, or when you have a spare balance on your account that you can afford to lose. That being said, this tactic is heavily reliant in your odds of winning in the first few games, and becomes more and more unforgiving the more games you win. So even if it all came from a spare balance in the first place, there is still some form of risk involved. And this risk compounds the more you win.

leea-1334

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Quote from: magneto on April 18, 2021, 12:12:02 AM

Parlaying does not increase your odds of winning in the long run.

You could always get lucky and win some crazy ticket (unlikely, since you seem to be doing 2-3x odds anyway and nothing in the neighbourhood of 100+x), but at the end of the day your EV is always going to be negative. In fact, your EV becomes progressively worse the more legs you take on on your parlay.

This is an instance where even if empirical evidence suggests that a strategy like this could be profitable, the hard maths still make it unfeasible.

I always wondered about this as well and from my own experience, I have not won more or less doing a lot of singles or a single parlay.

But I do see the point of value in parlays,,, many sites give you extra bonus for many multi legs. For example sports bet gives 5% boost on 5-legs, and it goes up every extra leg. The same as nitrogen I believe. So if you are sure of 5 games, why not?

Trofo

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New try, hopefully I will get at least a bit of green streak going this time:
Napoli and Inter should play an exiting game with lots of goals in it so BTS on this one.
Southampton has dropped drastically in form and I am expecting Leicester to clinch their final spot today.

JohnBitCo

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Quote from: Trofo on April 17, 2021, 05:52:39 AM

I just got my monthly rewards on Stake and since I did not use them much in the last month they were very small indeed. Idea is place full amount on one ticket every day. Odds will probably be between 2-3 and if the ticket is won, everything goes to the next ticket.

The idea seems a good one but i don't think it will last long. Still it will be interesting to know the outcome of this experiment and it will only be possible if you can update your results here on daily basis. If you got successful, i myself will try it out.

ChuckBuck

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Hmm, I want this theme to continue to be updated in the coming days. My expectation could be 4 or 5 wins for you before you lose everything. I like the feeling that someone is hesitant to lose a large amount of money in one bet, just a little regret. Please don't lose the first time, it won't be interesting Cheesy

Good luck, and don't forget to update the results!

Mauser

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Good luck buddy. It is always great to see new strategies being tried out here on the forum. I like the small stakes higher risk bets. Unfortunately I lost a bit with football bets this month so now I need to save up again before i can start gambling again. If we take risks we should get rewarded for it. Keep us posted with your strategy.

ralle14

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I also do the same parlays once in a while, its great when you manage to hit all of them but hitting several parlays in a row is a tough task to pull off though.

It'll be interesting to see the highs and lows of this experiment so best of luck on the next ticket and hopefully you'll get one going.

magneto

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Parlaying does not increase your odds of winning in the long run.

You could always get lucky and win some crazy ticket (unlikely, since you seem to be doing 2-3x odds anyway and nothing in the neighbourhood of 100+x), but at the end of the day your EV is always going to be negative. In fact, your EV becomes progressively worse the more legs you take on on your parlay.

This is an instance where even if empirical evidence suggests that a strategy like this could be profitable, the hard maths still make it unfeasible.

CarnagexD

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This is actually good for the people who got small wins on their accounts that have gone unnoticed for a while. Those small amounts can be compounded through multiple wins which will then offer you huge gains for little to no risk since it's a small amount you've had to begin with. Although of course when it's ballooned up to a point that it's very noticeable, you may have to make the harsh decision of either stopping while you're ahead, or carrying on despite the huge risk margin. Anyhow, best of luck to you fellow gambler!

Ulven

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I think it depends on luck, if you are lucky your expectations will be correct and otherwise the result will be disappointing. Indeed, if you have experience with your options while betting over time, you will have achieved some wins, compensating for some losses. I previously won a lot of bets on the Premier League and Spanish League matches in this way that I think is effective in the long term!!!

Trofo

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First try is already a bust but no matter I just got some more dust today as my weekly bonus so tomorrow I can try again. I expected to fail but no on the first ticket, this was disappointing, especially the way how E. Frankfurt lost 4:0 and I expected them to win today. West ham also lost but they fought with man down and almost managed to snatch a point after loosing 2:0.

Hypnosis00

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I've seen this kind of experiment before, and I personally tried it my own, betting on small odds through parlay and even using some martingale method on it but it doesn't work in the long run. Anyway, your outcome might be different, so I like to wish you luck and success on this experiment of yours so you can go with the big money.

crwth

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Good luck with your experiment. If you manage to make it into the withdrawable state, I think it's best to cash it out and try again. Would it always be a double or nothing type of experiment? It will also be nice to put a summary in your post when you get to the journey.

leea-1334

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Good luck to you fellow gambler! This is also something I do a lot on a few sites when I have some unexpected small balance (it used to be referral fees at my former dice site that closed down every month I would take them).

I also like using the same tactics for freebets. Bet it on small amount of multis for 2-3x, then try it one or two more times to turn "free money" into 5x profit:)

Lordhermes

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2-3 odds with a stake of 0.0000649BTC if we'll predicted will give a good RIO ratio and has a high risk management quotient. I majorly have a longer slip with 15-20 odds although most often I bet with little token. But a few times I stake larger coin. I find comfort staking of few leagues with higher odds.

Staking in Italian and Spanish league has made a huge fortune for me because most at times my prediction comes out right with much winnings

Trofo

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I just got my monthly rewards on Stake and since I did not use them much in the last month they were very small indeed. Idea is place full amount on one ticket every day. Odds will probably be between 2-3 and if the ticket is won, everything goes to the next ticket.

Goals:
To see how far I can push it. I am starting with just 0.0000649 BTC and I will continue to bet it all until I reach serious money level (maybe around half a BTC) or loose. It is possible that I will split the bank in case things are going well.

Expectations:
I am expecting to bust out after couple of tickets, this is not a system and there is no fail safe. It is just experiment to see how far I can go. I don't think I ever had a run lasting more than couple of days so this is a way to try and challenge that.

Re-buy:
I should get some small amounts on Stake every Saturday as weekly bonus so I'll probably give this challenge a couple of tries.

Ticket 1:

Try 1:
Ended on the first ticket. See above.

Try 2:
Starting stake: 0.00004878
Ticket 1 WON Bank:0.00015765
Ticket 2 BUSTED

Topic: Gambling experiment - Doubling small stake for big gains (Read 349 times)