I wrote an article explaining the game theory and incentives of all the chaos that is currently happening with Bitcoin. It is to clear up all the concepts and go into the mindsets of the big actors of this Bitcoin war.
https://medium.com/@stevenchen009/bitcoin-forks-ulterior-motives-cf953e4ec7e0
Please take a look if you are interested in this topic. Thanks!
Very interesting read, thanks! You are obviously right, fork threats are all about economic leverages, miners try to scare users with their forks, but it's actually a bluff, because they can't mine coin that will be rejected by the market. Segwit2x clearly shows that they are scared of BIP 148, they have already lost the battle for SegWit, the question is - are they going to fight for bigger blocks in November? Will they try to convince community that 2mb fork is the true Bitcoin, effectively trying to push Core away, or will they fold? I think companies should release their statements about potential HF in November, just as they did about all other forks.
I completely agree and I think it will be dependent on a lot of factors. In the upcoming months I can see miners and developers releasing more statements after Segwit gets pushed through. I think it will also depend on how much the extra capacity from Segwit alleviates the current transaction demand. If the capacity can consistently support the transaction demand, then I think that the demand for a hard fork will be diminished. However, I think it also depends on the success of Lightning Network after Segwit is activated as well. Let's all pray for a smooth ride.