Topic: Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever (Read 1152 times)

If you are a miner with cheap power never never never never buy a coin out right.

I can buy s9s at 300 and with my power deal it is far better then buying a coin for 9500.

I ordered some s9s they will do fine as for companies like Inno that is now a day late for my t3 t50.

They robbed about 12 dollars for that one day late.
Considering they did ship to others but not to me I will keep a running total public for all to see.

Unfortunately the BTC price does not care about hardware prices. What happens here is that the little greedy bas-ard from Bitmain wants miners to take the risk if BTC price does not rise and he to take the profits - if you buy overpriced new asic miners - you take the risk and the manufacturer take the guaranteed profits. If BTC price goes up you and bitmain will be happy but if the BTC price drops bitmain took the money and you loose. So the solution here is to NOT buy new asics and instead just buy BTC. If BTC stay at current levels you will ROI the S17 after more than a year - no thanks. And it seems other manufacturers change their prices based on bitmain's prices so all new models are overpriced. But BTC price most probably will rise and people who bought new miners will make profits but not so much as manufacturers. On the other side i have no idea what is the manufacturer's cost to produce new models - maybe they have good reasons for higher prices - not just greed. Anyway with such high prices for new asics i dont expect a large number of to be sold - manufacturers are out of stock now but this is because of 300% rise in BTC price since April.

yes i agree, i know, the S9K and the S9SE is the SAME MACHINE !!! with new chip (10nm ? 7nm?) because ? just look the freq !!!

S9K and S9SE are 180chips, (the standard S9 are 189chips) ... is the reason i thinks are new chip size ...

For exemple, S9 show arround 14 000ghs with 650mhz
--------------  S9SE show arround 16 000ghs with arround 460mhz
-------------- S9K show arround 14 000ghs with arround 380mhz

For conclusion, i thinks, the S9K and S9SE are same machine, the S9SE are higher frequency and downvoltage compare to S9K !!!

Yea, hopefully we get an update come Sunday/Monday for the single units. Everything bulk has shipped already.  .. .  :/

yeah I hope for next week.  by then my my 2 s9's are close to shipping and I can add 70-80th to the setup.

I have some orders due as well, I emailed inno support and they said that my orders will ship "by the next week"

Hopefully this gives you some small semblance of hope  

In about 24 hours my innosilicon t3 t50 will officially be shipping late.

I could cancel this and leave minefarmbuy hanging as I did a paypal order with my philipma1957 account. I like minefarmbuy  so I will wait a bit before I cancel order.

I have a good relation ship with minefarmbuy and would like to keep it that way.

this is my alt account.

Checking out bitmain store as I do once in a while, I can agree with philipma1957, the prices are totally nuts.

To me, it seems like bitmain is going the way of big electronics producers and is launching tens of models with a slightly different number and some slightly different specs just to fool you into thinking one of them is a bargain.
What the hell is with those things:

Antminer S9k-13.5TH/s   Hashrate: 13.5TH/s   Shipping date: 20-30, Sep. 2019   $310.00
Antminer S9k-14TH/s      Hashrate: 14TH/s      Shipping in 7                                $464.00
Antminer S9j-14.5TH/s    Hashrate: 14.5TH/s   Shipping in 7                                $479.00

I'm right now looking for 20 minutes at those prices and I really have the impression they are f with us

So if you choose the s9k with 14th which would whip on the 7 you pay 50% more than the s9k with 13.5th that ships barely two weeks after?
Obviously the difference doesn't come from the hashrate since with just 15$ you can get 0.5 th more also on the s9j...

Not even mentioning the s9 se which they claim has new generation chips but the efficiency is all over the place and not matching any other unit.

When did you order them. The discussion here pretty much surrounds what you can currently get, you tend to pop in with half the information. 6140 sounds like a number you might have paid in June.

In regards to the no trumptax, you either aren't having them delivered to the US, or you have made a poor choice in publicly stating you are attempting to circumvent tariffs. Especially considering a few members seem to have been able to dig up most of your personal information that is public.


These do look like a nice option pricewise. I'm hoping there is a LPM that improves efficiency or that the current numbers are on the high side. Either way it's a piece that would work for me if they are available at the end of October.

I got two m20s for $6140 shipped will be sent early next week no trump tax

Well the prices are nuts.

Bitmain  had s17 pros as low as 1750  with under a 1 month wait.
pangolin had m20s as low as 2050 with a 60 day wait.

Everything over that is excess profit taking  on the part of bitmain or  microbt.

Yeah coins  were 4600 when the gear sold at those prices.
Coins are now 9500.

But the diff in april 2019 was  7
the diff is now 10.2

forget trump tax which has simply killed us off in the USA.

take canada 5%  import.      the  s17 pro is now 3950 I saw a listing for it yesterday.

so  9500/4600 x 7/10.2 = 1.417  x 1750 = 2480  asking 3900   that is a flat out gouging of 1420  it is not justified based on coin prices and diff prices.


now the reseller has a tiny broker fee (maybe 100 a unit)  so I don't blame him.

"all prices are out of line. at current coin price and sched diff."

avalon 1066 is fairly decent but s17 and m20s  are jacked way higher then they should be.

Frankly I simply need say this is bad for business.

if you use the 1.41 factor the s17 should be only 2480
the m20s should be only  2850

with  a quick ship in effect.

I am hoping buysolar  gets us a few 1066's

I am hoping my inno t3 50 ships by august 31st.

Any guesses on that shipping on time?  I think not but maybe they surprise me.

Think things will change much based on a recent BTC price of $9526/coin? I kinda wonder if there is now FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the manufacturing side (not charging enough for new gear).

Considering timing the 1066 is a great product to look at.

buysolar has been talking with steve from canaan to get 2 or more 1066 or 1067

So what's wrong with going for the A1041's from Blokforge? Ja not as efficient but -- faster delivery and reasonable pricing per TH. Then there is the side benefit of the individual PSU's not being so damn hungry/fire hazards...

too bad  so 3795 x 1.276 = 4842  to a legit usa buyer.

jeesh lets say they come sept 1 vs sept 30

and they do 68th at 3350 watts.

about 80 kwatts a day

at 1 cent power that is  80 cents
at 2 cent power that is 1.60
at 3 cent power that is 2.40
at 4 cent power that is 3.20
at 5 cent power that is 4.00
at 6 cent power that is 4.80

68 x .00002416 = 0.00164288 btc or 17 a day - 4 = 13 a day

4842/13 = 372 days  So I am still facing gear that is cost prohibited

but even in china  it would be 3900/13 = 300 days at 5 cent  and

3900/14.6 = 267 days at 3 cent.  this is a hard sell.

5 s9's are 1700  do 70 th or  0.0016912 btc a day  or 17.28 usd a day and burn 156 kwatts at 3 cents that is 4.68

so 17.28-4.68 = 12.60 a day

so 1700/12.60 = 135 days.       and only 1700 out of pocket vs 3900.

I just don't see the pricing as working.

I have handled all this gear.  it all breaks down at about 10% a year.

I hate having so much idle power  only 110 of 150 kwatts filled. But  companies are holding the line at over priced items.

I will wait till the inno ships it is due to ship by this Saturday. lets see if they ship on time.

Once that unit arrives I will decide what to do next.

No, unfortunately.

does this include all import taxes?

Nah the late Aug batch was delayed so it is now early september and thats the pre order I purchased bought two one at $2984 shipped and another $3084 shipped.

Possible a reseller who pre ordered the initial September batch has a lower price. This is a bargained price for available units at current market rate.

Where? Links would be nice as I haven't seen anything near that price. Closest I saw was 3950 shipping within 10 days.

These can be had early september at $3100

Still pretty high but we have access to 40 units of M20S for September $3795.

The Russians that made the board with Bitfury is listing on their site are stating $3 a chip, maybe you can get a better price from them in bulk.

At the risk of venturing further off topic...

Right now there's not much to do to help. I'm waiting for the ASIC supplier to get back to me about whether or not I'll get access. If that happens, I figure on starting a hardware dev thread and keeping everyone posted, keeping interest and visibility up, so the source can see clearly that there is plenty of support for the products and they stay feeling good about their decision.

Right now I don't want to say too much, because if that source falls through I have to double back and do something else instead. Cart and horse and all that.

Should probably stop there for now and let this thread get back on topic. I'll let everyone know when there's anything worth knowing.

My apologies guys I've been swamped the last couple weeks it seems. Wife started teaching first year and kid goes to school in a different town while we have 1 car atm so I have from 8:30-3pm to make my money , things have been slow for me on bct and BTC in general.

I think your venture sounds awesome!  And if you flat rate them in USA, you'll be on top fast and should snowball from there (at least I hope) I think we can all agree that we need a true fair asic manufacturer. 8TH at 500watts is nice and should give a nice edge.  Being in the states (made or remade in USA) automatically saves us so much money too. 1/2 price shipping and no taxation besides state . I remember you said you broke a leg and got the design/build 606 expedited , seems like when you have downtime the community benefits well. (Stay in good health) with that being said how can we help expedite this process?

You never did send me your thoughts on that S9 hack either.

Yeah 8th at 500 watts is nice.

Keep up the good work, great to hear bigger is coming.

WhyFy - I'm still working toward building gear bigger than hobby-scale, but still geared toward quiet home mining. I've already got half a design for the next-gen stuff that'll replace my sticks and pods, and if it works it'll extend easily to an S1-chassis blade. Right now I'm waiting to hear back from the ASIC supplier about access to some protocol source to finish the design, and more importantly bulk supply of ASICs, but the (not yet impossible) goal is to be moving a new stick and pod by Christmas that should beat my BM1387 gear by roughly 70% at the top-end. If everything works out we could be looking at an 8TH ~500W S1-chassis miner next spring. IF everything works out.

Not sure what it'd take to build out a low-power 2-board S9 that was also quiet, but it's not impossible.

This question is hard to answer.  Pretend bitmain could do that.  If would drive btc prices lower based  on past history.  When they flooded market with s-5 to crush  the spondoolies s20  btc dropped to 183.

Once spondoolies was busted out they raised gear back up  I guess Jan 2015 to Sept 2015  for market to move from 182 to 400.

They flooded market with s9 last April-July 2018  market tanked..

I think they are better off with slow sales of high priced gear.  But I am an outsider looking in at bitmain.

The S-17 pro 53th  is better then any gear  there is  based on 36 watts a th at lpm.  Now based on 4200 price it is not that good.

or based on 2950 wait til dec price it is also not so good.

Very interesting. This seems to be right up Bitmain's alley ... They are probably ramping up production of their next-gen miner now and will flood the market with it all at once at a price their competition can't come close to competing with.

If they released a huge batch of high efficiency miners at a low enough price, could they force the difficulty high enough to make the s9s unprofitable? Wouldn't that be in their interest, since it would force the farms to buy new miners to replace all their s9s?

I wouldn't call those last couple statements speculation.... that seems to be the only thing you can 100% count on.

Can't access main account. In my current position The only way for me to lose money in btc is to buy coins or gear. So for me I have to mine and sell some coins while I also hold some coins. The risk of that is possible smaller profit. But the profit is certain . Every time the industry has been here and put me in this spot it has crashed. In under four months. So I am playing things for a crash.

well if btc goes up my  900th will be okay. It will earn a lot.

buying  gear now is most certainly stupid for me to do.
 
The bull is too occupied  to do a full  bull run as
The bull is busy getting laid as the asic companies are fucking everyone over.

The asic companies are trying to squeeze every last drop out of that bull  far before it is ready to pop.

But as I said all spec on my part.

The difference between Dec 2017 and Aug 2019 is the overall market condition , at that point of time there was way less people (buyers) who knew about bitcoin to begin with, there were not enough buyers to push the gear prices the way they do now.

Look at how fast the S17 sells on bitmain ,also notice that price went down like 30% yet hashrate is only increasing, everyone and their grandmother wants to buy the gears now before the bull run kicks in , everyone thinks that the same scenario that happened to S9 will happen to S17 and that pretty soon they will be making 50-100$ a day of their S17 which they bought for 4000$ and that later on they can sell it for 8k or even 10k.



Likely YES , I believe that from now until the next bear market or the halving ,gear prices will tend to increase specially after we break 20k , difficulty will take way too long to adjust, gears like the S17 will be making a fortune , the newbies will pay 8-10k $ easily.

Everything above is based on the assumption that BTC price is going to rise and not collapse back to the 3-6k range.

All these points about historical pricing proves to me the greed of the mining manufacturers industry.

I've stated this before , but we need more manufacturers like sidehack.

Sidehack what would you need in order to get to that point?  I get that the chip prices fluctuate would hinder going all in. Would love to see you selling hard modded s9's en mass.  Something like a s9 at 800-900 watts ,  running 10+ th , dreamy I know. I'd support it.

This post is why I did the thread.  In dec 2017. The s9 made 45 usd a day in coin.  You could sell one for three thousand dollars.  And people would be happy you sold it for that price.

Today the s17 pro makes 14 A day you would be loved by all if you sold one for the same 3000.

The s9 pulls 1350 watts the s17 pulls 2225 watts.

Based on 2017 dec numbers the s9 sold for

the s17 should be under 1750 shipped  today. Last I looked it was over 4100 shipped today.

The exposure to buy 10 s17 and waiting until dec makes zero sense.

I would argue what happens if coins moon to 30 k. Will we see s17 for 8000?

Correct, 27.6% will be rate with tariff pending any other news.

Jumping in a little late been busy.


Last I read on that this proposed 10% was on items not previously affected. Mining gear should be excluded from that.

The pricing isn't really a surprise move as far as I'm concerned. 2018 must have killed the manufacturing pace that was being set so now orders for components that are placed months in advance were probably at near minimum levels so that no one was left holding to much stock. Until that run on coin price everything was priced in so that you could be profitable sub $7000. So anyone ordering gear and receiving it within a few weeks was laughing. January you could load up your entire farm in 3 weeks with M10's at 750$ per. If you had a long preorder depending on how you paid you might have got stung and paid a 40% premium.

That price jump pretty much dropped us in November 2017 - Gear several generations old is now profitable again, and there isn't enough new gear available right now. Now manufacturers are scrambling to ramp up production, which costs a lot and they had just been selling gear at a steal. So they know people want it and are just dangling out everything they have, which probably includes gear reserved for warranty repair/replacement, charging in the irrational realm because someone will pay it.

I'm curious to see how many of these pre-orders arrive on time.

true  it does move around.  PM sent.

Until bitcoin is treated more like money instead of an asset you'll see the volatility market wise. Then it will likely be the main off ramp to exit inflationary fiats for a number of years, so the appreciation of value is very likely.

As a business we want to retain the scarcity of bitcoin and so only exchange it as necessary regardless of market finding that gain/loss is negligible long term. Though we operate extremely lean so overhead is much less an issue like for it is for sidehack and other business models. Essentially we recommend bitcoin every time an incentivize it but are firm on allowing users to decide for the best experience possible.

It would not be good for gear builders and or sellers.  It would not be good for those that have a dozen units of gear due in Dec.

The tank was right on time. Just got paid the biggest BTC invoice in months at $11k8 so of course it was going to drop 15%. Don't know about you guys but a drop below $8k would make my business harder.

This is me  I was at a sweet sixteen party just got home.

Niceeeee  coins tanking.

I just grabbed some ltc at 74 bucks.

best thing that can happen is a hard tank  maybe 7777 for btc  and 66.66 for ltc

fingers crossed we really drop.  and that big ass 300 megawatt farm  just  getting built  gets cut hard.

Sooo glad I did not fold and buy  dec gear.

Of course  by the morining  btc could be 11111 and ltc could be 102  and I look like a fool.

The only issue I have with all the "guessing" that we all seem to do is that mining is a game of luck to begin with, in normal business you only have to worry about the competition since product cost and profit margin are almost always static , mining on the other hand, you need to worry about both competition (difficulty) and bitcoin price (product).

a few months ago when I was in the process of making a move that involved exchanging my BTC to hashing power , things were not as clear, now for me and for anyone who bough those cheap S9s we have ROIed  (or at least pretty close) and can easily sell the gears for double the price now, and that was BTC to mining gears, so I can only imagine that $ to mining gears would have been much profitable in all aspects.

While I do agree with phill that "Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever" , this statement is only valid for now, 3-4 months from now phill or anyone else for that matter might look back and regret not buying S17 for 4k , since for all we know BTC can easily hit 50k in a few months even before the halving.

But despite the luck factor, I have always though it's a wise idea to do the math based on what you see and not based on what you expect , so as phill showed doing the math, buying these new efficient gears at these stupid prices looks like a stupid decision as of now.

What is my plan? (not wise at all)

My plan is plain simple, it involves some speculations and some facts - based on those here is how I plan to play the next round, but first , let me put some points.

1-Price moves way faster than difficulty (fact)
2-Price is going UP (speculation)
3-Price will go down later (speculation)

-I expect a rally within a few months that will take us to 20k or (100% price increment)
-difficulty won't do 100% , not even 50% till then
-S9 profit will increase by at least 50% and probably go back to 5-6$ a day
-Mining Fomo hits again , S9 price increases (and so do the other gears)

at this point when we approach the last known ATH , everyone and their grand mother would want to start mining, I will take the chance and sell my S9s for a great price , and hodl USD.

-wait for price to correct (  I do believe it will once we approach the ATH, it always did)
-buy more efficient gears during the correction

rinse and repeat,,,

This is a high risk high reward way of doing things, if things go south you lose a lot , if things go as planned you get to have the same TH at 30-40% less power , if things don't work, you will end up paying more for the same TH you used to have, but to me and since I have already ROIed on almost every gear I bought , I am feeling so comfortable playing with fire.

Well my Father-in-law would love to say we shall see what we shall  see. My Clifton  farm is okay for now.

Where Crypto meets the "real" world, and not just currency exchange rates.

or to the moon and I am completely wrong

trump announced he would postpone some of the new tariffs .   Not sure about mining gear.

But 25% + 2.6

would be better then a jump to 35% + 2.6

Info changes constantly. A very fast world we are in.

Key takeaways from this thread :

> S9's and S9k's are better than the newer efficient hardwares.

> And the newer hardware will cause diff to rise to 20 trillion soon (but not in 4 - 5 months)

> BTC price will dive.

> Trump tax will make things more unprofitable soon.

Damn! this thread has been so depressing man! Thanks for all your calculations @Phillip

Sure some has cycled out.

My small farm is 680th newer  220th s9

But I think  not as much as you may think

diff is 9.9 soon to be 10.2

when we were mostly all s9   diff got to  7.8 in october

so a lot of s9  are mining at the moment

we peaked at 57 eh in october

we have now hit some 83 eh 1 day peaks

that means  57 + 26 = 83

more likely

50 + 33 = 83

s9 have been actively replaced s9 for a while. I would expect well run larger farms already cycled out most of their older gear.

They are going to keep holding pricing too even if we dip under 9000
Demand is about to surge among commercial miners from what I can tell. 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284590-blockstream-launches-bitcoin-mining-service
Just that alone seems like it could have heavy impact.

If your power deal is 50-50 coin split

Buying a pair of s9s is better then buying any new more efficient gear.

I am stuck in the USA so. All gear other then a pair of s9s is subject to the trump tax. Which moves to @ higher number in around a month.

I do not see moving from 9.9 t to 20 t in only 138 days.

Btw for me with a 50-50 coin split  the s9 does not hurt me much .

Obviously buying new gear like an s17 for 4000 simply does not work.

With trump tax it pushes 5200.

Nobody is buying S9's at $400. ...nor are the newest S9's going to sell out....there are 10's of thousands of them for sale through Offordscott alone.
S9's will be obsolete SOON...by Oct. most will be mining at a loss,  because of the Diff increase from new gear and the price WILL DIVE again as new gear comes online worst dive will be before year end. Diff will double by year end to 20 Trillion.

yeah I could have had 10 s17 pro 53th for 22,225  would have been nice.

I ordered 1  not 10.

My S9s are still making decent money. But I fear a "tipping point" when used S9s are going to flood the market. I got stuck with a bunch of Avalon 741s a while back. I could of sold them for decent price, but I waited to long, and got stuck with them. Couldn't even give them away.

Timing is everything. When BTC was $6000, I bought my S9s for $100, now reselling them for $400. There is good money in buying and selling Asics. Kicking myself because I had opportunity to buy a pallet of 10 x s17 for $20k when they first came out. They would have ROId by now just from mining, and then sell them at 4k a piece now.

My power deal is 50-50 coin split    so  the lowest cost per hash favors me  but of course it does not mean I should buy 40 s9's to fill out the farm as I would be lese then fair to my hoster.

I have 900th online about 230th is s9  the other 670th is all more efficient gear.
I also have 11gh of L3+

so better gear is pulling 52kwatts
the s9's are pulling        25kwatts
the L3+ are pulling        18kwatts
some gpu's pull               2kwatts

total                             97kwatts

the better gear earns way better then the s9's  but it looks like  with the trump tax issues I am shut out of everything other then the s9's

yesterday we made 0.17 ltc to spilt and  0.0226 btc to split.

that is  15+260   = 275/2 = 137.50 a day for my 1/2

I can justify adding more s9's  a few at a time.
It legally beats the trump tax.

This is why every time I regret not buying s9s when they were selling dirt cheap I remember how stressful this thing is and congratulate myself for the move.

For bitmain and inno and the rest, it's pretty simple. They charge outrageous prices knowing that, if you buy with the revenue they build two more, you don't buy it, not a problem they will mine themselves with it.

Of course, right now an s9 would make sense, but it all comes to how much gear do have they sold how much they have produced and how much they are going to make for the rest of the year.

Let's take the optimistic scenario
- back in October, we had around 55exa, meaning that we can put the growth of 20exa on new gear.
20exa in 6 months means that by the end of the year we will have another 20ex, not great, not terrible you will still ROI.

The pessimistic conspirationist scenario
- the first growth was actually because bitmain had already deployed new gear and the drop was because older s9 were put out for sale,  the 20 exahash were all new gear and they have another 20 exa shipping.
That would make at the end of the year 60+20(old gear for sale)+ 20 exash new gear deployed, 20 exa in shipping, and add another 40 for the rest of the year...and we're at 160exa by Christmas at which point if you own some s9...you would better be running on zero energy.

As usual, the truth is somewhere in between, but where?

I have........................................................................... ............... 900th mining
I have  1 t3 t50 coming on line this month I hope. ..........................50th
I have    2 s9k     coming on line in sept.............................................27th

I have 1 dead m10  that one fucking m10 just breaks over and over......30th  who knows
I have a 2 board repaired s9 over clocked ..........................................10th

that is 107th
I may over clock some of the partial s9's  about 23th more hash

so with perfect luck    I can add 130th to the 900th  with zero cash outlay

I expect to add 95th to the 900 th  giving me just about 1 ph  by sept 2019

blokforge
minefarmbuy   do miners correctly and you end up paying trump tax.

I would order a t3 t57 for october but I am waiting for the t3 t50 to arrive before I order more.

As I don't want to have 2  separate orders  out in the wild from innosilicion or from anyone other then bitmain.

Manufacturers like Bitmain and Whatsminer recently, are just capitalizing on the resellers market. Essentially they're under cutting their own buyers (resellers) by releasing units out of a typical cadence. This is flooding the available market with more gear. Though now they are selling at higher prices, but still lower or competitive with resellers, so units already sold to resellers won't move as fast. Potentially lowering pricing as a whole as the product that doesn't sell will be available cheaper because more units are being made, will ship, and back log for some manufacturers is pushing into 2020. Of course this only happens if no other variables change.

If market goes gangbusters all bets are off and you either fight off fomo and make good buying choices or hope you set up competitively to ride till bear and pick up on the cheap.

Still imo, it's best to project and calculate a good hash increase to diff increase and look to build up as you need to. Mostly as pre order from manufacturer is usually best pricing, and with your projections you know you'll want X ths, X month(s) from now you want/need. Reducing buying pressure and still getting the upgrades your looking for when you want to light them up, hopefully in an ROI that's acceptable.

Did the math on an 1800 a1041 vs 798 for 2 s9k’s

Running the a1041 on full speed needs a cold space. I tested my 2 1041 on low and high

On low you get 30 th use 1980 watts in a warm room..

2 s9k. You get 27 th use 2500 watts in a warm room.

So you are 1000 usd behind with the a1041 but you gain 3 th a day and pay 12 less kwatts a day.

At a dime a kwatt  it saves 1.20 in power every day
And at a nickel a kwatt it saves 60 cents in power every day

It also earns 3 x 0.0000245 more then the s9 do.  That is 0.0000735 btc a day.

So after 300 days you gain back with 360 in power if you are a ten cent miner
Or 180 in power if,you are a nickel miner..

But 300 x 0.0000735 is  0.002205 btc in extra btc earned  that is 25 dollars 💵 maybe 26 dollars more.

So in theory if btc skyrockets the a1041 could be a better deal after 300 days.

In no method from free to 10 cent power is the s17 better. Since the s9s would earn more btc.

The a1041 has a sound edge if you run at 30th speed. So that is a plus.

And if run at full speed it would earn even more coin then the s9s  so you could at least stand a shot that the a1041 for 1800 from blokforge could beat the 2 s9 from bitmain.

But frankly unless you need to manage noise the s9k is almost certain to be a better buy if your power is at 0 to 10 cents at the 300 day point of use.

The t3 57t is no longer available for sept delivery for 2200. That deal is decent.
I paid 2500 for the m21s it arrived a week or so ago.

The t3 57t will be 2500 for October shipping.

You will want to run it at 52 th and use 2900 watts

As most all Innosilicon suck at full speed. Also if they pull 3400 watts on a c19 plug 🔌 it is borderline safe.

So 52th. At 2900 watts vs. 54th at 5200 watts.

So you save 2300 watts a day with a little bit less hash.

Let’s say you get it to do 55th at 3100 watts I doubt it.

It is a tiny bit more hash then the 4 s9k.

Or let’s argue it safely does 57th at 3300 watts

So you gain 3 th and save 1900 watts

This is pretty good and in 300 days you saved 300 x 4.40 or 1320 at 10 cent power or 660 at 5 cent power.

So a t3 57t coming in sept that cost you 2200 was a good deal.

But a t3 57t coming in oct that cost you 2500 was borderline

Still better then the

S17
a1041

Beats the s9 in 300 days if power is about 9 cents or power.
Loses to the s9 in 300 days if power is about 6 cents or less.

To get correct idea 💡 of these insane prices go back to the s9 in dec. 2017

Bitmain wanted 3000 for 1 s9. And coins were 20000 diff was 1.4

So diff is now 9.8
coins are 11300

The s9 was making. 45usd a day and was 3000 bucks

Today. The s17 makes. 15usd a day and was offered for 4000 bucks by bitmain.

We are so fucking over priced with the s17 it is crazy 😜

S9    The 2017 3000/45 = 67 days with free power
S17 The 2019  4000/15 = 267 days with free power.

So with the numbers above for the s17 to equal the 2017 price   Coins need to,go from 11300 to  well over 35000

So if the gear pricing is correct then coins will moon.

S17 pricing is ridiculous. I did purchase a Innosillicon 57t for $2200 Sept delivery, and a Avalon 10 for $1800, August Delivery. Much more reasonable.

I have done the math and the prices are too high for the efficient gear.

an  s17 53th pro is 4k in hand .  with free power it  earns 53 x 0.0000245 btc a day or 0.0012985 btc at 11,300 = 14.67 a day

4 s9 are 54 th  or 54 x 0.0000245 = 0.001323 btc a day = 14.95 a day

s17 = 2225 watts
4 s9's = 5225 watts

a 3 kwatt power difference that is 72 kwatts a day extra or 300 x 72 = 21600 kwatts in 300 days

at 10 cent cost    it would be  2160 spent in power

4 s9 with psu for 1200 = possible to find

1 s17 53th pro for 4000 = hard but possible to find

so you spend 2800 extra for state of the art   you have 10 cent power  300 days later

1200 + 2160 = 3360 out of pocket

4000 + 0     =  4000 out of pocket    and in both cases 2.2 x 24 x 300 x .10  = 1584  for power

so 3360 + 1584 =   4944   and you have  0.3969 btc 4 s9's about 4484 cash

4000 + 1584 =       5584  and you have   0.3895 btc  s17  about 4401 cash

so both deals are  not good with 10 cent power

we can go back down to 5 cent  and you will see  that favors the s9  more

2225 = 2.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 = 16020 kwatts at 5 cents =    801 in power

5225 = 5.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 =  37620 kwatts at 5 cents = 1881 in power

so 4000 + 801 = 4801  for s17       you will have about 4401 usd in btc = loser
and 1200 x 1881 = 3081 for s9       you will have about 4484 usd in btc = winner

so at 10 cent both units lose at 300 days
but at 5 cent the 4x s9's kill the 4000 dollar s17

this make prices fucking nuts!!

Keep in mind depreciation is much higher on the low efficiency gear. I'm phasing out my S9 while they still have value..I can sell them at $400 a pop, and they will be worthless in 6 months. High efficiency gear should be valuable for at least a couple years. I think long term. You have to stay ahead of the curve.

Window of profitability is important. S9 has ROI of 200days, but you may not even have 200 days to mine before it becomes unprofitable.

High efficiency gear will stay profitable for long time, even with ever increasing difficulty.

Spacer

Okay  direct from innosilicon

https://www.innosilicon.com/html/t3+57t-miner/index.html

uses 80 kwatts a day  does about 55th

so  4 bucks a day  at 5 cent power

and 3.2 dollars a day at 4 cent power
and 2.4 dollars a day at 3 cent power

October delivery 2310      =    0.226130 btc shipping included
November delivery 2230   =   0.219091 btc  shipping included

this unit earns about 0.0013475 btc daily

0.226130/0.0013475 = 167 days for the october order if power is free
0.219091/0.0013475 = 159 days for November order if power is free

167 days at 5 cent power = 668 power cost
159 days at 5 cent power = 636 power cost

167 days at 4 cent power = 534 power cost
159 days at 4 cent power = 509 power cost

167 days at 3 cent power = 401 power cost
159 days at 3 cent power = 382 power cost

So  the t57 if it comes in october  will not pay back for 167 days unless you have free power and flat price in coin and difficulty stay flat.

If you have 5 cent power you will  be looking at 50 more days to break even so the october unit would be 217 to 235 days to break even

---

next the s9 from bitmain

the s9k does 13.5th  2 cost 798 with shipping to the usa.

so 800 at  11500 is 0.06956 btc for 2 shipped to usa under the trump tax

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020190730112951352E0D2y0TF0621

27th x 0.0000245 = 0.0006615 btc a day

0.06956/0.0006615 =  105 days to pay off if power is free  gear arrives in sept

at 5 cent power  it cost 1.56 a day to run the unit  so at 105 days you are down 164 dollars
at 4 cent power it cost  1.25 a day to run the unit  so at 105 days you are down 131 dollars
at 3 cent power it cost   .94 a day to run the unit  so at  105 days you are down  99 dollars

---

there is of course the a1041 from avalon

https://blokforge.com/product/canaan-avalon-1041-31th-s-bitcoin-miner-shipping-august/

---

and there are the  4 models from pangolinminer the whatsminer m20 m20s m21 m21s

they are all now pushed to December delivery dates

https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-series/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21s-with-psu/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-with-psu-shipout-during-august-20-september-15/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21-with-psu-shipout-during-august-1020/

---

right now  with all calculations  the old school s9k  has better break even numbers then any other gear.

you simply need 3-5 cent power  and you will break even in under 200 days

of course if you have  10cent power  and really want to mine  you will be looking at a more efficient piece of gear.

I write this because all the major companies combined are creating a funnel toward the s9k  as you best choice to buy if you have 3-5 cent power.

The math says  buy s9k's nothing matches their payoff times. (if you have 3 to 5 cent power)

I find this very interesting.

Going to list gear  pricing and break even with:

 5 cent power
 4 cent power
 3 cent power