Topic: Gentlemen, i think it's safe to say we're the new halving elite (Read 7600 times)

damn right it's just the beginning

not even close to the end of the bull run

October 04, 2015: $240 BTC/USD
May 27, 2016: $480 BTC/USD

And this is just the beginning. We're the new halving elite.

If I'm in for a surprise, that surprise will be going higher because it sure as hell isn't going to tank with whale support keeping it above $300.  Some little kid shorters on Bitcointalk who fail shorted at $290 think they can "talk" it lower.

 

You're in for a surprise.

$600 end of August beginning of september 2016 would definitely possible if we hold the 300 now.And it seems to look really good. Maybe 400 until the end of this year and the next one might going crazy ways up.

If $300 holds, which seems like it probably will, halving will probably get us $450-600 now.  Not bad.

Cyndi Lauper wrote a song about the rise of Bitcoin in 1985, explains everything perfectly, read the lyrics:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sKbvN--oH8

People who always scream NO! Are missing the best chances and buy at high's just to not lose another opportunity. My guess that we are heading towards the $350 price point the comming weeks.

Nice timming OP. When you made this thread we still had a lot of doubters. "Ohh Bitcoin is doomed, it will never go 300+". Recently we are staying on the 300 range in a nice healthy way. I can't wait until June 2016 until all the doubters become panic buyers and the price goes higher than anything that would be deemed a sane prediction right now.

you can already see the amount of google searches going up (trends.google.com)

It's not anywhere near 2013 levels but it's growing fast. Once media picks this up, more people will become interested, which will trigger more buys, which will create a positive feedback loop

$1000 is not unlikely at all.

Wouldn't be surprised if it happens.  Bitcoin has been off the media radar for a long time and as soon as the media starts posting "Bitcoin massively increasing in price!", incoming new bubble.

I am optimistic about the halving.
Expecting a $1000+ lol

Well, I am one of those guys who is going to hodl for a couple of years at least. No matter prices go beyond $1000 or not, I am not gonna sell. Long-term investment.  



It is exactly the other way round. If everyone expects the price of something to go up, it WILL go up. In the same way, if everyone expects the price to go down, they would naturally sell causing the price to actually go down. That is true for just about anything.

Took picture of chart too soon, it went up more.  If we break $300 anytime soon, the halving is gonna go way beyond my initial speculation of $400-450.

Such coin wow

Agree. Those two halvings cannot be compared in equal condicitions.

But I think that price is still to go up a bit due to the halving. Miners are likely to wait a little before getting hold of their Bitcoins yet.

Too many people insta selling LTC for BTC for it to be looked at for a comparison.  BTC is sold for Fiat not alt coins it's a different animal.

That is ignoring that it first dropped from 55 dollars to 1 dollar. Even without halving I would expect some dead cat bounce.

I guess it makes sense to compare two crypto-currencies at similar points in their history, e.g. LTC just before the block reward halving with BTC just before its first reward halving. I'm much less convinced that we can gain much insight from comparing BTC now (i.e. before its second halving) with LTC (before it's first and only halving). 70% of total BTC is already mined - the remaining 30% will be distributed over the next 200 years. In contrast, LTC still has (over?) half its total still to be mined. I'll be disappointed if BTC's next halving results in similar results to LTC's first halving.

Nothing wrong in comparing the trend situations of litecoin which faced it's first halving recently. Litecoin prices jumped more than double then settled on double to make sure the miners profit regardless of half mining rewards. Why not same will happen to bitcoin....

Yes, but isn't Litecoin like a dead coin with no future? On all of the forums everybody keeps repeating this and the price drop and development activity suggest this.

On the other side, Bitcoin has dropped in price a lot but not 48 times as the price of Litecoin. Also I don't even need to repeat about all of the investments, etc in the Bitcoin ecosystem. It's strange to me to compare Litecoin halving and Bitcoin halving.

has brought a x2 anyway in price, and it was a different halving, from 50 to 25, so miners should've a bigger margin in profit, vs 25 to 12.5

for this i think the bitcoin halving that it is coming should have a better impact on the price

Yup, these kind of reports create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The run up in 2013 was partly driven by such reports. So we can expect a lot more excitement closer to the reward halving time.

I was expecting $400 from Bitcoin halving, but I'll take $600.  There was always the chance of when the media reports Bitcoin is up 50% from halving it creates a new bubble anyway.

And it did work for LTC. It went from 1 dollar, to 8 dollar, to 3 dollar. So the price more than doubled tripled even after the halving bubble deflated.

The mechanism of halving is the same in bitcoin and in litecoin - if it did not work for LTC then it will not work for BTC.

Probably because most people in the altcoin section don't believe Litecoin's market cap is warranted compared to other alts?  Litecoin price has nothing to do with Bitcoin price.  Litecoin could easily go to 1/10th of it's value while Bitcoin goes to 10x it's current value.  There's nothing to compare between the two.

The halving in LTC does not inspire much hope for bitcoin.  There was some nice anticipation rally - but the halving itself did not stop the crash and looks like it will not get it back high neither.

The shorts tried and failed, didn't go below 260.  I've been to the mountain top and I've seen the coming of the glory of the coin and this is what it said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cF4ZTcuhixc

The only purpose of Bitcoin is a hedge against legacy financial systems imploding.  If they were stable and functioned, there would be no reason to switch.  Since the legacy financial systems are mathematically doomed, a good bit of transfer of wealth is likely to move to Bitcoin.  You're basically front running the transfer before the average Joe is forced to change, like in Venezuela how they became super interested in Bitcoin as their currency implodes.

Average joes are stupid, they don't have an opinion. And you can certainly bet that they won't suddenly start buying bitcoins when the halving comes.

yes, we are still at the bottom long term

You guys really think so?  I was hoping to buy more coins before the rise. Would it still be okay to buy now?

halving can really have only a minimal effect, as it is priced in, being completely known.

I think what happens is over shoot just before, under shoot at time of, then goes up a few months later as the realization dawns there's just so much less BTC around.

Ok, it's been a few days.

Next stop $400, although it will probably take months.

i don't believe this is the reason why average joe are not buying bitcoin

the reason are more to do with its instability(1200-200 that happened) and general security, about losing their coins too easy, for whatever reason

i say this because when there was the 1200 run up, many and many normal traders or even big noobs, were buying at prices like 400-600-800-1200 etc...without even thinking

Nope, it won't hurt anybody.
The uptrend seems to have begun. I am not letting go of my coins till after the halving. 

Yup it is very futile to predict now, it doesn't make sense even if you said it will increase or derease or just stay the same but it is just a suggestion on what will happen in the coming halving of bitcoin, suggesting something isn't gonna hurt no body right?

halving elite...lol
there is or will ever be just enough bitcoin for each person on earth to have 0.003 BTC (3000 millibits)
there is or will ever be just enough bitcoin for each person in OECD countries to have 0.017 BTC (currently ~$4) if non-OECD countries have none (very unlikely)

Ponder this, then come back and ponder it again.

It will be either something close to zero/BTC or a VERY large number (btc price) in 20 years.

I will do agree that it is safe and sure to say all those including me will be part of new halving elite who hold their bitcoins.There will be a steady increase till halving and after halving we will see a speedy increase which is obvious to be.

If anyone doesn't think halving will create huge price pressure, please sell me your btc now.

There is such a thing as predicting, and if you do it right you will pay for your house in a hurry. The price is going to go up. period.

Do yourselves a favor, save your future self from jumping out of that 40 story building and secure your financial future now while a single bitcoin is still within your reach.

Bitcoin has been down or sideways for two years and I buy more every single chance I get. Because the 10 year-in-the-future version of me will hate me if I don't.

Yup, even in hindsight, we cannot calculate what the effect of the block halving was (because so many factors influence price).
So, trying to predict is futile.

18 months is nothing in this game. Patience is key, sit tight & HODL & you will be rewarded in time.

Not now now, but in beginning of 2017 what is not really now, but some might say tomorrow.
Price will not raise straight after halving but with a 3-6 months delay. So is more then a year til then most likely a year and a half. Lots of things can happen in the meantime.

More bullish news:

"The IMF is not saying much other than there are three crisis epic centers within the emerging market crisis including China, Brazil, Turkey, and Malaysia"

China devalues currency and puts in capital controls = all chinamen run to bitcoin again.

Do not blame XT only. There is malleability too. They can do all these experiments after 2020, when 1 BTC becomes equal to 2020 USD.

See, again, you're looking at bitcoin as something like food. A consumable whose main purpose is NOT speculation.


In that case, the supply reasoning works. But what I was trying to tell you, is bitcoin doesn't work that way. 99+% of the value of bitcoin currently comes from speculation, can we agree on that?

If so, what that means, is that the VAST majority of people owning bitcoins are in hopes of it rising in value. That's the value proposition for them; it's why they bought/mined bitcoins in the first place. It's why they're holding.

IF they cannot expect an increase in value, then there is absolutely no reason for them to hold bitcoins. In which case, they will sell. Again, we're under the assumption that bitcoin does not yet have enough intrinsic value to justify even a fraction of its current price.


But what that means, is that demand and supply are HEAVILY influenced by the price. Let's say the price increases from $200 to $300 (as an example). The people who thought that bitcoin is a good deal at $200-$299 will start selling, because the price is already over their threshold, causing a much higher supply.

Because people don't have a need to buy bitcoins (unlike food, clothes, etc), even if the supply is low, as long as they think it's overpriced, they will not buy it.


Now again, I agree that PERHAPS the halving will have some effect; I said less than 5% but probably less than 1%. I'm not saying it will have absolutely 0 effect.

What I am saying, is that you can't just take the halving by itself, ignore all other variables (because you don't know them) and confidently make predictions about the future. The halving is one, small variable in the grand scheme of things, doing that would be like claiming you know the strength of the US army vs the strength of the Russian army because, well, you have a friend who is an American solider and and a friend who is a Russian solider. Let's ignore the rest of the military because we don't know, right?

What do you think is the likelihood - in percentage terms - of that happening, and why? (Personally, I'd assess the chance to be vanishingly small - so small as to be not worth considering - but I'm interested in the reasoning behind higher values).

or satoshi can volunteer to sell 1800 btc per day to keep the price level.

The error in your reasoning is that all those 21m bitcoins will be available to you if you are willing to pay the market price.
I’m Hoarding Bitcoins, and No You Can’t Have Any

Secondly if you look at the halving from a dollar value demand perspective and assume that currently all mined bitcoins are sold immediately:
3600BTC x 250$ = currently 900,000$ demand per day.

Now lets assume that the dollar value demand is still the same after the halving and that all mined bitcoins are still sold immediately (1800BTC instead of 3600BTC).
Something has to move. The dollar value of a bitcoin has to double to 500$ or the current holders need to be willing to supply those extra 1800BTC per day. Each day, every day.

It will likely be a combination of the two.

The point isn't what I think is overpriced or what YOU think is overpriced. I think bitcoin can be worth $200,000 and not be overpriced.

But what matters is what the WORLD thinks is overpriced, and currently, it seems they think $300+ is overpriced.

Bitcoin's demand is a function of the price point it's at.

Yup! I know, I am just saying that the increase or decrease of Bitcoin will not be very high or low, but predicting it now in the recent halving
and base on that alone I think it still be the same as the last time. Well that is only my prediction.

You should qualify that statement saying nothing happened immediately.
The price now is a lot higher than what it was 4 years ago.

So what is overpriced for you? The actual price we are dealing with?
A price of $500-$600?
There is no answer to that imo. What you consider as too expensive might be a cheap and good entry point for others.

The same debate happened before the last Bitcoin halving in 2012 and nothing actually happened to the price. Of course back in 2012 Bitcoin was much less known to the general community.

But Now Bitcoin is well known now but the halving will occur in next year july/aug 2016, and I think bitcoin will increase by that time! 

Here's the thing. The reason your reasoning is wrong, is because you're looking at this like farmers farming for vegetables or miners mining for ores.

In that case, a decrease in supply is a "real" decrease in supply.


However, bitcoin is different. Bitcoin has a known total supply (about 21 million). Ask a random person who has heard about bitcoin, and they would probably know about the 21 million limit (or at least it'll sound familiar; they'll have seen it somewhere even if they've forgotten). On the other hand, ask people how much bitcoins are mined per day. I bet even many people who own bitcoins can't answer that question.

The real supply of bitcoin is just 21 million.

This is further compounded by the fact that the VAST majority of bitcoin's value right now is in speculation. Bitcoin has very little real use cases right now that gives it value. The reason it's worth $200 something is because people are hoping the price will go up in the future.


In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

It's not dictated by how much coins are coming in every day.



So to summarize, as opposed to "real goods" like food, there is real demand. People need it, so when there is less supply, the price will go up. Supply and demand dictates the price.

The MAIN point of bitcoin currently is speculation. That means that rather than demand dictating price, it's the price that's dictating the demand. People don't need overpriced bitcoins.

I totally agree to that, bitcoin fought its way to the top and it deserves some acknowledgements and one way of doing this is getting a coin for ourselves.

Volatility what is that??

Why is nobody looking at things from a logical angle anymore? It's not about what you "feel" will happen. It's about hard facts and elementary human psychology.

The halving will double the price of making bitcoins. This means some miners will be forced to drop out, and some of those dropouts will switch from producing bitcoins to buying them. Others who have hoarded for a while may dump when the price rises, but first the price must rise. For the overall market the supply will shrink which will push the price up assuming the demand remains steady.

The halving is going to push the price up. No way around it. Not in a straight line either, there will be a return of volatility to go with it.

Yes, we had too much hype and speculation until now in Bitcoin ecosystem, even too much. We don't need more of it. I hope that as we grow we will become and seen as very serious ecosystem that depends on its fundamentals and technology.

This is necessary in my opinion if we ever want to become accepted by the masses. Every time there is a speculation, pump and dump, hype we only lose as a community and that's not good at all for our future.

If a rise depends on hype creating artificial demand - that's pretty depressing. I hope there is a rise, but one driven by fundamentals, not hype.

the halving will not lead the new price by itself only, but by the demand it will rise because of the hype around it, this is the truly impact of the halving on the future value

and going by this the impact will be very high, i would say that the price will rise at 99% because of the halving and the hype that will be generated around it

There is a chance that Bitcoin will increase by next year so a lot of people that I know saving bitcoin before that
and I am pretty excited before it happen! 

Miners wont sell their bitcoins at same price if they can mine only half number of bitcoins than earlier.
(Miners will increase their selling price.)

Who bought their bitcoins over X $ wont sell them under X $ nearing to halving.
Also early adopters wont sell their bitcoins.  

The only sellers on "low price"  will be those who needs fiat instantly.
(+ some bitcoin payment processor , but those supply is "constant" )  

Its going up for sure, anyone see litecoin price stable at around $3 for a while now after halving, a very good clue that the halving will at very least double a price.

Too self-aware...but I'll go along with it.

If I give an objective answer, I think the having will account for AT MOST 5% of the value. But I believe it's less than 1%.


How important do you think the having is? 50%? 80%?

To some extent OP is correct..Halving will definitely decrease the supply of bitcoins but this factor alone will not be responsible for increasing the price of bitcoins because it's simple economics for price to rise demand must be very high and supply should be low then only price will skyrocket and when the halving occurs then supply will decrease but demand will be same so price will increase accordingly..if we want price should go very high then we should promote bitcoins and we should tell more about bitcoins to others so that other people who are yet not bitcoiners come and buy some bitcoins and therefore increasing the price

so you think that the halving, which is known to occur at 100% unless bitcoin die before july 2016, to be worth only 0.0000...1%? lol no way

the halving will have the same impact as the supply and demand, after all it's another form of supply and demand with a smaller scale

Actually I feel the same way I mean how who else will dominate of course the coin handlers today and in the future we better gather some more coins.

There was a video in the altcoin forums, but I'm too lazy to search it up.



The problem is, you're ignoring 99.9999999999999% of what affects the price because "you don't know". so you're taking that 0.0000000000001% that you know and confidently making predictions based on it. That doesn't make sense at all.

But we had this argument many times already so I'll stop there.

Assuming demand side remains constant (big assumption), we can hope for some price increase close to the block reward halving.

honestly ?

investissors don't even known how blockchain system (mining, nodes, ledger) work at the begin ... so talk about XT is a no-sens. 

I will say current price is because of debates regarding blocksize and Xt which created atmosphere of fear for little investors.Once things will be settled down for good halving will surely have positive and healthy effect on price too.I also see increase in price after halving.

the supply side has long been known.

but the demand side has been very hard to read. we have lots of market manipulation even by the very exchanges that help "set" the price as they trade in the market too. in the last few months the price has been in the $200-$300 range. I think this range is so large that it will not be possible to see any halving price effect even if there is one. 

I do agree that this is best time to hold as after halving there will be huge increase in price of bitcoin.Bitcoin is on the way to be most previous and valuable digital currency of future.Halving of blocks will be one more step towards this goal.

where i did say that the halving is the only thing that will change the price and everything else will stay equal? you can't assume shit on something you don't know, you don't know if demand will increase or not, so i put aside this factor

but you can know for sure 100% that if there are less coins produced, there would be less dumping, unless you think that right now miners are dumping 1800 coins, and after the halving they will dump all the mined supply(1800 coins)

i'm still waiting for the source that it was a ponzi or pyramid about the recent litecoin pump, until now every halving has brought a pump, there were no exception, so why you should think that bitcoin is different, when we are talking about the king here?

the only thing that should be clear, is that the pump will not occur the same day of the halving, it can occur 6 months before or 3 months after, but it was still caused by the halving in any of these case

I hope we are more than just the halving elite. But yeah, people who aren't holding till Juli 2016 are going to miss out bigtime.

Holding Bitcoin is always the best option, especially if you can buy them at current price. Investing and making profit can't be more easy than it is right now  

Love this GIF . Going to steal it for future use


That's the spirit. Remember this day Gentlemen! Page 1 of the halving elite thread. We were here


Agree Mickeyb!

I also think that the solid floor has been formed. With the upcoming halving I don't think that we will be heading south, on the contrary, I believe we will be going only up in the upcoming moths and just until the halving.

I must agree with the OP, this is a quite safe time to hold some bitcoins.

We may be part of the new elite, but that will not be because of the halving.

It is just generally a good time now to buy as the lows have been tested multiple times and we don't seem to be able to break down more.

It is just a matter of time to enjoy the rise again

There's no such thing as defeat for bitcoin, only delayed victory!

We Will (always) Win.

Litecoin's pump is because of pyramid schemes in China. It has nothing to do with the halving.

Let me tell you again, that your assumption that everything else will stay equal is so completely and absolutely flawed, I can't understand why you are so stubborn and refuse to accept this fact. The halving is a very small part of the equation, we really have no idea what will happen.

However, I do believe that bitcoin's price will change because of the halving. It's not that the halving itself is a really big factor, but there are many people who, like yourself, cannot understand that.

I predict that sometime before the halving, the price will go up, because people like Amph are going to buy coins in hope of a quick profit when the halving comes. But because the halving itself really is not a big factor at all, that pump does not happen, and then these people will start to lose faith and start dumping, which will crash the price for a little while.

The trend is down, we have no way to make a valuation of real market demand for BTC.

You should observe that despite a clear increase in Bitcoin Adoption and healthier state of the market, the price has done nothing but fall. Obviously, the distribution was too un-even at the beginning and the price is unsustainable higher.

The halving will not have as much effect as people 'hope'. People simply don't realise that the people that control the BTC market only move the price in the direction that is most profitable to them. Hence the year long decline.

unless you're making the trend, the pump will happen, almost certain, look at litecoin, it happened despite everyone thinking that it was dead, and it was a x15 if i'm not mistaken

the point in that it not will happen when you expect it, most likely not in the same day as the halving like a dating...

The price will go the path of least resistance. If everybody expects a price pump for the halving, then it simply won't happen. Markets do not work the way you expect them to.

Haha I like the idea of this thread, just needed to get a post in on the 1st page incase the price does go up massively as a result of the halving next summer.

Kind of a - 'I was there' - thing.

why would it? there is already an institutional itbit exchange in NY.

i'm sure people who buy in now and hold it at least untill the block halving will get a very decent reward in return. the only thing you need to have is patience.

Yeah but that dosen't mean that we are going to be rich or anything , I don't think Halving block  reward will do much (at least not the one of the next year) . However I think that the Gemini exchange (by the twins) will do something in Bitcoin for sure .

I do so hope you're right It seems every time bitcoin is rising something happens that fucks it up, latest BS, XT....

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.