getting past break even | Bitcointalksearch.org

Marvelman

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Quote from: boyptc on April 07, 2024, 01:39:28 AM

Well, as everyone do not understand you just as me. But if I am going through, what I am understanding is about you literally what the title says.

So, if your strategy dont work at all then retest. Upon doing some retest and backtesting, you will have new results but it might be losses or past your break even.

If you keep on break even, honestly, that is better than losing more.

Breaking even is okay, but it's not exactly a winning strategy. Strive to do better, not just avoid losing more. We should aim higher than that! Otherwise, there is no point in doing anything in the first place.

By the way, I didn't understand what the OP meant, either. Wink

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Maybe you can try more and that could be more profitable if you try to work on fundamentals too because this is the only analysis that would give you a edge in the market while others are complaining why their strategy don't work always for them.
You can shift your focus on fundamentals since it looks like the technical you are building is not doing fine with a better reward for you.
What do you think will happen if price was pumped and dumped at the same time. Go for fundamentals.

boyptc

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Well, as everyone do not understand you just as me. But if I am going through, what I am understanding is about you literally what the title says.

So, if your strategy dont work at all then retest. Upon doing some retest and backtesting, you will have new results but it might be losses or past your break even.

If you keep on break even, honestly, that is better than losing more.

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Quote from: synchronym on April 05, 2024, 04:44:03 AM

Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

I don't understand much from your post but if i understand it seems like you are a newbie if you are new to trade then you must acquire enough knowledge about trade. If you don't have enough knowledge of trading then you will never get success through trading. Of course you need to invest for long term in trading. If you have a long term trading plan and can invest patiently you will definitely get success.

And having qualified knowledge you will only be able to get when you already have
high enough flying hours in terms of the learning process that will give you experience and knowledge. Basically everything requires a process and struggle, there is no success that comes instantly in any case including in the world of trading, meaning however if for example you want to achieve success then obviously there must be something you sacrifice such as time, money and thoughts.

Trading is not as easy as turning your palm because this profession is like you build a company within yourself, you are the one who plans, organizes, manages, controls and looks for strategies to make a profit and not to forget we also really need patience to really make sure that it is the right decision, but overall what is more needed is good self-control such as having the ability to minimize greed and emotions, because usually this is always a problem for most traders who make them experience significant losses, the point is that you must have a warrior mentality, good consistency, and the ability to minimize greed and emotions.
mental fighters, good consistency and never give up if you want to succeed in the world of trading, this is what I know from several successful traders.

gunhell16

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

I have a question for you, Op. Do you understand anything about the trading that you are involved in here in the crypto business? So what kind of indicators did you try to use in the actual trade you made? It's not clear what you made the topic of this section; that's why I'm asking you.

Now, if you tell me that you are just a newbie, it seems that you are in too much of a hurry to get profit in trading. Although I know that is the aim of all of us, there are still some things that we should consider in that matter. And that is a lesson to learn first before jumping into trading.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

What you actually intend to get from this post of yours isn't actually clear because for a post as this, it was expecting you would get to a point where you would state clearly what imputes you would like to get from us who are going to make replies to this post but then you just stated your experience which actually isn't in clear terms and then you aren't even giving room for a clear picture at what it's actually intended with this post.

I would only want to mention that your strategy isn't looking like one that will actually be really effective enough to get you into profitability so it will be better you improve it especially with your risk to reward ratio because for bad days you would need much more than your risk to reward can give you in oder for you to be able to make up for that which has been lost.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

I don't understand much from your post but if i understand it seems like you are a newbie if you are new to trade then you must acquire enough knowledge about trade. If you don't have enough knowledge of trading then you will never get success through trading. Of course you need to invest for long term in trading. If you have a long term trading plan and can invest patiently you will definitely get success.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Basically what you are asking is how can you make more money and not to play longer with break even. The answer is easy. Just hold your position longer so that your risk reward will increase from 1RR to probably 2RR or 3RR. Depending on your risk apatite and how long can you hold your trade. Then overtime as you build your track record, you will notice trades where you bet with greater size.

That is why trading is unlimited game. Because there are so much ways to improve your edge. And the only way to improve your edge is to look unto your trading and know which aspect can you improve. Is that risk management, your exit, your entry strategy, or your psychology.

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At least you tried but don't forget the market is all about human emotions. That is the first reason why we can't get the same positive results on live algo trading from backtested trading strategies. 50% is not a bad ratio but you have to make your edge on the markets without tools. Indicators and other tools don't give you a specific edge over a long time, you have to master price patterns to get desired results within time. Mostly it happens after 10k hours of screen time, from my experience.

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Quote from: nelson4lov on March 24, 2024, 05:57:07 PM

I personally think that trading is not a one-size-fits-all kind of endeavor and there's a high probability that one man's strategy might not work for the next man. You can do some paper trading with different indicators, patterns or strategies and see which one works in hindsight. Once you're done with that phase before you can double down to focus on your chosen strategy.

Even better, you can use a demo account but one thing to keep in mind whether you're trading a demo or via paper trading is that, you will be willing to take on more risks/losses if you're just doing those.

Yes trading is not for all, or not all are capable of doing it and this is why we also have investing, staking and others that people can do and for sure there will be one that will fit for them. I think the explanation on why one strategy might not work for the other is because they don't have the same capacity on how to understand things. Other than that, the market is also changing from time to time.

We must understand this so that we won't hope too much and we won't hurt our selves or the other person that gave us a tip. Practicing trading or our strategies in the paper or a demo account can also differ from the real one.

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I don't think it's anything odd that you're struggling to go above 50%, most traders do afaik. I'd say you'd only profit properly if you took some risks and went past that 1:! ratio. Anyway if it was that easy then a lot of people would've still kept trading and profiting to this day, even I would have. But no, it really isn't that easy lol. As for bots well, they're bots for a reason. They don't have the same flexibility as humans do nor can you actually put said flexibility into it in the first place. It's only good for some specific periods.

Quote from: batang_bitcoin on March 18, 2024, 11:20:28 AM

Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

~

What's a pinescript code? I have heard it this time and despite that I am not the greatest trader here but with that term you've mentioned got me curious on what you really trying to do. But if you're trying to beat the market, you can't beat it and that's why you have to be with it and just do what's necessary as an action and keep on testing strategies that will make you profitable and what's more comfortable to you in doing. Not all of them are going to be green days but somehow it is going to be with your few more tests.

Should be something used for scripting bots used in trading. Not sure how it works I just know of it but I've never used it.

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Quote from: bettercrypto on March 25, 2024, 01:12:46 PM

If you use indicators, that means you have knowledge of trading. The question is, do you experience frequent profit trading in the field of crypto currency? Because in reality,
it's not really easy to trade to get a profit. That's not easy to do.

That's why the 50% rate of chances to gain in trading is difficult to achieve because the usual thing that happens is that the average is high and the community traders still lose.

Hmm, using indicators really refers to strong trading skills, I was unable to judge this physiology throughout my journey, anyway, thanks bro for this stance, in community trading I use this term for the TG communities who join the groups of any influencer and pay for the signals, this is the fact there only community influencer earns and the trader hehe so-called trader lose always for a short term he can make money by those signals at the end of the day they won't have a single penny in the wallet because in bullish momentum anyone can blindly make money.

Skills are tested under the pressure of the market, it's not like there is only a 50% of chance of wining a trade or losing, because if you consider so its not trading it just gambling. I can explain more on it if you want how and why?

bettercrypto

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

If you use indicators, that means you have knowledge of trading. The question is, do you experience frequent profit trading in the field of crypto currency? Because in reality,
it's not really easy to trade to get a profit. That's not easy to do.

That's why the 50% rate of chances to gain in trading is difficult to achieve because the usual thing that happens is that the average is high and the community traders still lose.

Zigabel

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Trading coins actually have got a slight difference as compared to trading currency pairs and so sometimes using currency pairs strategy to trade the crypto pairs could actually not give you the same kind of win rate you get trading currency pairs. In trading your strategy doesn't have to work everytime, sometimes it will work and the other times it will fail buy this still doesn't mean that it's working it is but it's as it's part of the process in trading to experience some losses and aswell some wins room buy if you get to expect only wins then you may not actually get the wins all the time .

Lastly a strategy of. 1:1 risk to reward ratio isn't a good one because it's not rewarding and will not be profitable in most cases because you will need two to three wins to make up for every loss but a 1:3 risk to reward ratio will do more good so even after two losses, a single win can make up for them and you will still be in profit.

adaseb

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In the past with stocks, I tried for hours finding the perfect bot. I would use combinations of RSI, MACD, moving average, etc and what i found was that you can code a bot to work well in a trending market but if the market goes sideways then it won’t work.

Same applies for coding a bot to trade in sideways markets, it will be effective but when the trend changes and it becomes a trending market then it won’t work again.

This is the reason why most bots don’t work. Because they work under certain rules during a certain period, until the period changes and it doesn’t work anymore.

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Quote from: kentrolla on March 24, 2024, 04:41:05 AM

I have tried some indicators and also combination of indicators and well as strategies but could find an accurate or atleast winning one hence I have been suggested to work on basics like RSI, Bollinger bands and MACD as these might help us if we go indepth. Sometimes we get lost by experimenting the combination of multiple indicators as my A/B testing failed but the market conditions play major role we need to experiment with different market conditions to see which indicators or strategy works on which market conditions.

I personally think that trading is not a one-size-fits-all kind of endeavor and there's a high probability that one man's strategy might not work for the next man. You can do some paper trading with different indicators, patterns or strategies and see which one works in hindsight. Once you're done with that phase before you can double down to focus on your chosen strategy.

Even better, you can use a demo account but one thing to keep in mind whether you're trading a demo or via paper trading is that, you will be willing to take on more risks/losses if you're just doing those. You'll learn more when you've an actual skin in the game especially when you lose real money and work very hard to get it back.

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Quote from: tvplus006 on March 18, 2024, 05:56:33 PM

You should not focus on one indicator. Try to test several different trading indicators and during the testing process you will be able to select 2-3 indicators that you will use simultaneously for trading.

Indicators like MA or BB will be good while another one like Bollinger band can be the second. The third can be fibonacci retracement. I will prefer just two indicators for short term trading because almost all of them will still give similar results. Indicators are good but not perfect at all. If you check the market very well and check indicators, you will see how indicators can fail traders. I prefer to just hold instead.

kentrolla

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I have tried some indicators and also combination of indicators and well as strategies but could find an accurate or atleast winning one hence I have been suggested to work on basics like RSI, Bollinger bands and MACD as these might help us if we go indepth. Sometimes we get lost by experimenting the combination of multiple indicators as my A/B testing failed but the market conditions play major role we need to experiment with different market conditions to see which indicators or strategy works on which market conditions.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

And it just shows that no strategies are going to work overtime, sometimes you will take a big L, and then recover on the other day to recoup that lose. That's what trading is all about, you are just giving yourself a hard time to find that perfect strategy or indicators, but at the end of the day you won't.

The market is very volatile, and as far as I can remember, way back 2018, there were a lot of services here being offered and suggesting that they have found a methodology to make money, but at the end of the month, all of then didn't earn a single money and on the contrary they incurred negatives, meaning their strategy doesn't work in the long run.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Hmm, a win rate of 50% is the same as we gamble in the market, as here in the market you can really depend on the historical movement without analyzing the current timeline trend, you need to check the real-time frame trend on the same time need to know about the recent developments, and sentiments of the market in order obtain a higher win rate.

Well, that's the fact only getting dependent on the indicator won't be an efficient strategy, you need to realize that an all-rounder is the best strategy while trading in the risk investment markets. You need to have the how-know of every important factor.

husencoe

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Using several indicators will be better in carrying out analysis. And make sure you doing a backtest so you can find a higher probability from that indicator. You can use the history of the candle sticks in the market or Trading view.

About pinescript, does this mean you are testing a trading bot? If yes, sorry because I'm really ignorant about that. I heard sometimes Bots only work under certain conditions. For example, a bot for a bullish market, it will not work in a bearish or sideway market. Maybe you have to find a bot that suits market conditions.

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Quote from: tvplus006 on March 18, 2024, 05:56:33 PM

Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge ..

You should not focus on one indicator. Try to test several different trading indicators and during the testing process you will be able to select 2-3 indicators that you will use simultaneously for trading.

2-3 indicators will be a good combination for testing, sometimes some indicators do not match the indicators installed. Users must also understand what the advantages and disadvantages of this indicator are. I'm not much of an expert in trading analysis, only using 1 or 2 indicators to determine where the market will go. The OP might create some kind of analysis bot that will give him information about when to buy and sell according to the indicators he uses.

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Lets make it simple, don't try to achieve 50% winning rate in trade especially if you are new in trading or has only a few years of experience because as we know it is very hard to achive that percentage of win in trading and if you keep on chasing that goal and trying so many things in order to achive it, you may stumble at some point and don't know what to do aymore, it is not bad to do experimental trades because you are exploring different ways in order to have a profitable trade, but if you keep on trying different strategy and indicators just because the previous you have used is not effective then it might be bad, because all strategy and indicators have their own different ways in engaging in the market and based on what you are currently using from other indicators and strategy, it has its different way of approach in the market, I suggest choose only a few strategy and master it in order to have more percentage of winning in your trades.

hugeblack

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A profit rate of 50% is very good, as you can exceed the percentage by placing larger amounts for trades that you are certain are likely to achieve profits, versus smaller amounts for trades that do not achieve profits. If you are creating 100 trades and an average of 50% of them are profitable, try to make 70% of them profitable. Your investments average 50% profitable and 30% in less certain investments. This will raise the profit rate to more than 50%, even though the average profit is 50% for transactions.

adaseb

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Yes this is normal. There is no guarantee way of making money in the markets. That’s just the way it is.

If it was this easy, nobody would work, they would just code some bot and go on vacation.

You need to learn how to trade yourself in real time and see if you can be profitable. Using a bot is not a good way to do that.

Bots will work in certain markets such as bull or bear or sideways markets. But once the market changes the bot will no longer work and by the time you configure it to another market sentiment , you would of had huge losses by then.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward.

Winning rate is 50% and risk reward ratio for your entry consideration is 1:1, it is bad for success rate and in risk management it is bad, very risky too.

To manage risk better, the ratio of risk: reward should be 1:3. If you see from your entry to cut loss price, and from entry to take profit price is less than 1: 3, don't open any position from that entry.

Risk to lose your money, even by cut loss, is bigger than chance to get profit.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge ..

You should not focus on one indicator. Try to test several different trading indicators and during the testing process you will be able to select 2-3 indicators that you will use simultaneously for trading.

batang_bitcoin

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

What's a pinescript code? I have heard it this time and despite that I am not the greatest trader here but with that term you've mentioned got me curious on what you really trying to do. But if you're trying to beat the market, you can't beat it and that's why you have to be with it and just do what's necessary as an action and keep on testing strategies that will make you profitable and what's more comfortable to you in doing. Not all of them are going to be green days but somehow it is going to be with your few more tests.

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

You are going to have to tinker around your risk reward ratio mostly and the take profit percentages. You may also explore other strategies and indicators as well. Also, a market condition matters a lot. Certain trading strategies work so well when the market is trending, while others are far better when the market is moving sideways. Nothing comes easy mate.

palle11

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

I don't really understand what you are about to say but in whatever you do you have to stick with whatever works for you. You don't have to leave your working strategy to seek for advise from another person. If you got a win rate of 50% from your new strategy then you have to build more on it to stabilize your growth and add more profit in your trading experience. So I wish you luck in your strategy.

Barikui1

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Quote from: forestx on March 18, 2024, 08:58:47 AM

I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Actually I don't basically don't understand what you are trying to say, but by the look of things, you are actually a newbie when it comes to trading, and as such, the logical thing to do is to seek knowledge first, because in the crypto industry, you only got what you deserve, if you are making it big, you deserve it because you have the required skill to trade and be profitable, so if you lack knowledge and you decide to engage in trades ignorantly, then it's a must that you will surely learn the hard way after you have been liquidated, and that's what you deserve, so it's best you go for knowledge first, so you can know how to navigate your way in the market and come out profitable.

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I have been testing indicators and strategies for a while trying to come up with profitable ways to trade. But I cant seen to beat a winning rate of about 50% on a 1:1 risk reward. Nothing I tried is giving me an edge
While testing some pinescript code yesterday using a basic strategy for testing purposes of entering trades when a green candle appears after a red one I also got a win rate of 50%. So I cant seem to beat a coin toss.

Topic: getting past break even (Read 407 times)