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Topic: GOAX (Read 1280 times)

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
January 11, 2015, 11:59:37 PM
#7
Good (old) comments, which stand out from other 1000+ posts topics.

Makes me think:
- 650K fake BTC bought with fiat by bots
- 200K real BTC, belonging to real, honest users
Seems good proportion in this case.

Now it would only take good investigation to put bots 650K bitcoins apart and use the 200K BTC to give back users BTC to the last penny.



Thanks. Actually, I was trying to suggest quite the opposite:

- 650K real BTC bought with nonexistent fiat by bots (essentially borrowed, since they were put on plastic), and then sold by whomsoever controlled the bots to the general public during the big November, 2013 run-up. The disappearance was originally called a "massive theft" in court papers. The language has slowly been shifting to now saying it was a case of "fraud." A subtle difference perhaps, but it would fit if someone had rigged Mt. Gox to sell bitcoins short against its terms of service, and then was permitted to cover the short sales at some later date. Perhaps the cover has been ongoing during this past year and is now almost to a point of completion.

The original idea may have been to quietly replace the "borrowed" (and then sold at peak prices) bitcoins with other bitcoins later bought up on the cheap after the crash. That's how short sellers profit. However, closing the doors on Mt. Gox may have foiled the short and exposed what he was doing by preventing quiet repayment of the borrowed coins.

If true, all this was a carefully planned scheme going well beyond simple fraud. I have written more about it in this thread (especially see the FAQ - Post #6):

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mt-gox-a-case-of-asset-stripping-615261


It might be worth exploring who has the ability to pull something like this scheme off and how do they expect to get away with it.


Covering up while the short(s) finish covering their "borrowed" bitcoins could help explain the reason for the atmosphere of secrecy surrounding the bankruptcy proceedings as duly noted by Kolin Burges in his report on the second creditor's meeting in Tokyo: http://www.mtgoxprotest.com/ For example, if the Mt. Gox addresses were released it wouldn't take very long to figure out what really happened. Yet, trustee Kobayashi has stated "disclosure of the address is withheld."
newbie
Activity: 52
Merit: 0
January 11, 2015, 07:43:59 AM
#6
Good (old) comments, which stand out from other 1000+ posts topics.

Makes me think:
- 650K fake BTC bought with fiat by bots
- 200K real BTC, belonging to real, honest users
Seems good proportion in this case.

Now it would only take good investigation to put bots 650K bitcoins apart and use the 200K BTC to give back users BTC to the last penny.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 05, 2014, 10:56:46 AM
#5
Either way, a proper database audit should be able to make every (real) customer whole, or am I missing something here?
More than likely it is your option 3) since Mt. Gox stated in its bankruptcy filing that it is missing $27 million in bank deposits. It also said that it was missing 850,000 bitcoins, but 200,000 were later found in an "old-format" wallet. That leaves 650,000 still missing.

These could have been sold short, and that explains why they can't be found.

Markus and Willy, through their buying activities, could have created the appearance that these sales were covered, when in fact they were not.
member
Activity: 104
Merit: 10
June 05, 2014, 08:01:22 AM
#4
If Willy and Markus fake trades are the cause of the collapse, I see the following options:

1) Bitcoins bought and fiat used to buy them were both real. "Fake" trades are then actual trades, and should not involve any missing money.

2) Bitcoins bought were not real, nor the fiat used to buy them. In this case, MtGox just forged 650,000 fake coins out of thin air. If we spot all fake accounts (Willy-like and Markus-like accounts, with their buyer counterparts) and discard their balance, no money should be missing. (neither fiat nor BTC)

3) Bitcoins bought by those bots were real, but fiat used to buy them was not. In this case, MtGox should be missing fiat but not BTC.


Either way, a proper database audit should be able to make every (real) customer whole, or am I missing something here?
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 05, 2014, 06:08:02 AM
#3
"in order to protect the site and our users"

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-bots-bought-millions-in-the-last-days-of-mt-gox
The report reviewed above by The Guardian makes the point that the price of bitcoin could have been inflated during the last run-up of bitcoin in the final months of 2013, by two automated bots, Willy and Markus.
Quote
The author suggests that the "Markus" bot, rather than spending random prices per bitcoin, in fact acquired the coins for free, "and the program that generates the trading logs simply takes whatever value was already there before. In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime."
There are always two sides to every trade, so it's reasonable to ask "who sold Willy and Markus the bitcoins?" Since these apparently were purchased without paying, then whoever sold the bitcoins could have been building a very large uncovered short position in bitcoins. That's when you sell something into a market with the promise to replace it later, but have no actual capacity to do so.

When Mt. Gox was closed at the end of February, it could have prevented the short seller from completely making good on replacing the bitcoins. Who was on the other end of the trades made by Willy and Markus? Since 650,000 bitcoins were traded by the bots, and 650,000 are now missing, was the short caught with his pants down? Perhaps that could explain why the exchange was closed, "to protect the site and our users."


newbie
Activity: 52
Merit: 0
February 25, 2014, 01:20:44 PM
#2
"in order to protect the site and our users"


http://s29.postimg.org/qq8zqh1hj/goax.png
newbie
Activity: 52
Merit: 0
February 25, 2014, 12:59:36 PM
#1
Crisis Strategy Plan:

GOAT HOAX


http://s27.postimg.org/ffc7qw9tf/goax_LOGOw2.png
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