Topic: Going 3x this month for swing trading worth it? (Position closed, half price) (Read 475 times)

The price is getting close to $23k and once it's there I think 24k and 25k is also going to be easy. If it didn't happen yet, it won't be a problem as long as the price stays above 20k and not dip below it as that might give him a lose already. Keep in mind that he isn't investing so his funds can get liquidated automatically when the price fall on the limits that he set but for the investors, they can always wait longer and they continue adding more coins to their stash.

We can only lose money here if not gained, but we should not add in the time that we spend. In case we didn't earn anything, the return of it is still a knowledge and experience.

The strategy still works and is useful, but the realized profits made by traders are lower than during the bitcoin hype throughout 2020 and 2021. The profit targets each trader wants to achieve vary widely, so it doesn't matter if $1K is the initial fund for a $100 profit. I believe the OP's strategy can still make a profit, but so far I haven't tried it.

Leveraging on 3x is very conservative like you've noted. It's almost like doing it the spot way. My thinking is embedded in the African saying – If one wants to eat frogs, one should eat the very rotund or plump ones so that one can thump one's chest when called a frog eater. If one wants to trade Futures, one should take the risk and not be lily-livered like a sissy. Lately, I'm beginning to develop interest in Futures trading. I play around 10x to 20x and it's not even of too much risk, provided there's always a SL to cushion any downside. Again, there's also that display window for liquidation level. So, it's not as if the risks are hidden.

Bitcoin reached half the price today as it got to $22680, but the daily chart is already indicating that bitcoin may not go further for now (never misunderstood me, we all know that the time for all-time-high is coming). I mean just for now. Maybe bitcoin price would still hit $25000, I do not know because indicators are indicating that there could be a mild downturn in a way bitcoin may not hit $23000 for now before the next price uptrend, but I can be very wrong.

You will do swing trades towards the upcoming trend. It was a significant bear market, then best to go towards the bull trend, make some profit and leave the market for a while.

There are certain methods like this that work very well when you are in a trending market. This is why many people got rich back in early 2020 and late 2021 because Bitcoin traded up hill the entire time.

So you would add to your profits and you would make a lot of money. However when the trend turned and when it got choppy like now those methods don’t work anymore.

Political situations, economics, wars, natural disasters, pandemics, stock market conditions are some of the things that can affect the price of bitcoin in the market. The price can go up and down when the situation some of the points I mentioned above get worse, but on the other hand bitcoin also has the potential to go against the flow and go up more expensive.

I don't really know if your strategy can generate a decent return in the long term regardless of the risk, but to be honest some people have been very successful with their trading strategies. If you are confident in your strategy, go for it and avoid doubts. I'm sure your confidence will falter when the response you're expecting doesn't actually appear when you ask a question, so it's better to just do it and start small.

a calculation that is always coveted of course, if it is true that bitcoin will achieve an increase in september according to the prediction by Oshosondy, but if it doesn't happen, of course it won't be a problem because it can be kept and waiting for developments in the following months when it will increase or at least according to the predicted prediction.

maybe if it doesn't match the prediction or even unwanted things happen where the price actually goes down, maybe it's just a loss of time and funds which ends up being stored longer. Of course, if it continues to decline, there may be an opportunity to continue to add more investment so that when there is an increase in the calculations that have been made, it will still happen as previously predicted, there will be no loss of time that has been made with the investment.

You can think war could lead to the fall of bitcoin, but what if it leads to the rise of bitcoin, people can see bitcoin an alternative to bank. Although, I do not know what can during during war, but if mining is not affected, possibly the price if bitcoin may rise.

This is not about holding discussion. Because you are a day trader, does not mean you are not a swing traders. Also because you are a swing trader, that does not mean you are not holding or planing to hold. See this as a speculation about bitcoin price in September. We all know that all-time-high would one day come. Bull run by 2024 is coming, but this is not what this thread is all about.

For this month? I believe not, unless there's a Black Swan.

What could that Black Swan possibly be? Perhaps something like Russia using nuclear weapons on Ukraine, starting a European War.


$28,000. It's SURGE-SEPTEMBER ser.


Risking $1,000 to win $750? If you don't need your $1,000 for anything else, Buy and HODL. The next Bull Cycle will print like the Bull Cycle during 2015 - 2017. Remember this post.

At this point it sounds like a good strategy. Also, if at all bitcoin price goes until 14000 you still have the option to add more funds to secure your funds from liquidation.
The chances of bitcoin going to 14000 are slim but as we all know, anything can happen in the crypto community.
But yeah, if bitcoin goes bullish then it will yield some nice profits from this strategy.

Yeah, I like your choice of leverage, using low leverage for this trade is the best, especially because we are battling the $20,000 level now and there are some fundamental events coming this month, the best example is Ethereum's The Merge, it will for sure affect Bitcoin market for me though.
Another thing is you can set your stop loss before your liquidation price, just put it to minimize your losses but make sure it's worth it from your target price. Use risk:reward ratio.

Anything can happen in the market, we have noticed extremely volatile market countless number of times in the past, the last before the last one I could not forget was when bitcoin falled from $65000 to $30000 in few few days, and also when it falled from $48000 to $17500.

The $20000 that supposed to be a support is now a resistance, but we are in weekend, the weekdays would determine what would happen next, I expect bitcoin to get back to $20000 like on Monday, but anything could happen, and if it couldn't, there is possibility that the market is going down further, especially if the $19500 support is broken.

Never mind that I did not mention that people should still have collateral, I prefer to go 1x. If going 3x, definitely I have collateral that would make the position opened to be like 1x. Assuming I use $100 for 3x, having $200 as collateral is important, that would make the liquidation price to be difficult to attain by the market price.

About volatility, I could be wrong, but I do not use the extent of the last volatility for any calculation, in each halving cycle, bitcoin is becoming less volatile, I am expecting bitcoin not to dip far more than $17500 this time around. Like I have mentioned, we are only speculating, speculation can be wrong, but I have strong stance about this.

Of course it can. $14,000 is not such an unattainable price. Bitcoin could fall as low as $10,000 given the past loss of value in percentage terms, which is usually around 85% of the last ATH. 85% of the last ATH is just in the $10,000-11,000 zone for 1 btc. So your long position is not just in the risk zone, but in the high risk zone, especially during a period of market instability and a deep bear market that we have not yet exited. When I traded on a margin account, I had a leverage of ~x1.36 and several times the market was in a very close state to liquidate me for a very large amount. The only thing that saved me was that I had a lot of collateral and I could replenish my balance to push back the liquidation line, and you have x3 leverage, and even in such a negative market. Those who trade against the market are very often liquidated.

Bitcoin "can never" reach $10,000? That is a strong sentence borne out of the misconception of how the market works. I do tell people that no one controls the market, we are just speculating, so we should not be so affirmative with our positions and ideas about the market. Anything can happen in the financial market, so we should get prepared for the expected and the unexpected no matter how trusting/confident we are with our trading analysis and views. The strongest support/resistance levels have been broken countless times in the past, so do you think such could not repeat in the case of Bitcoin even at the time that the monthly and weekly charts are clearly bearish?

That aside, my reply was borne out of the consideration for better planning by managing your trading account safely because the exposure is too much, not even with your direction. It will be fine if your speculation is right, but what if it is not right? That's where the wisdom of proper risk management comes in.

In other words, I believe you are risking too much with your plan.

Why? I do not think bitcoin would go below $17500 again, but anything can happen, even if bitcoin dip more further, it can never get to $10000. Even if bitcoin will decrease more further, it can't be below $15000. Before bitcoin decreased to $17500, $14000 is what we analyzed before in accordance to previous year volatility, but likely bitcoin may not get to $14000 if it decreased below $17500, unless microstrategy sell its holding.

For 50x leverage, the liquidation is $19600
For 100x leverage, liquidation price at $19800

Those are too risky. I can't go more than 10x leverage, and it has a special time I can do that, not frequent. I prefer to go on just 3x leverage.

I used $1000 for just to know what the PnL would be if the trading fund is $1000, never mind that. I stated it in the beginning that it is better to use the amount of money you can afford to lose. But my speculation is that bitcoin can not get to $14000 again.

But I believe that bitcoin would never reach $10000 again, ever. I understand what you are saying, but I believe as $20000 is a strong support, $17500 would be a stronger support.

The futures market is scary in terms of having no practice with money management. It's really hectic to manage if you cannot monitor it or verify the things needed to do when trading, like setting up different parameters.

• What trade would it be? - market or limit
• Trading Limit - amount of balance per trade
• Stop Limit - price in which you want to sell
• Leverage - for margin/futures trading

You would do many things, but the trick here is knowing how to handle it and accepting losses in the long run. It shouldn't always go to be unlimited, you have to take losses with losing trades, but the decision to see if that's only for the short term or not is hard. Determining if you will hold on or not is the challenge, so you should be firm about it.

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Look at the charts, if the resistance at $21514 is broken, it could go upwards.
If the candles break the $19132 support, it's definitely going to go lower.



A lot could happen. It's the decision to see the bigger picture that is the challenge.

Going 3x is quite impossible as we are still in this bear condition, unlike during the bull market. It is not wrong about trying it and applying the strategy you have but aiming for such an amount seems to fail. However, what is most important is that we make some profit, not losses. At this bear condition, we're not looking more, having s mall profit like x1 is good enough to sustain and live in this current situation - were at least doing well.

It's quite a solid strategy, assuming you can part ways with $1k if things go south ofc. I personally can't do that due to my conditions, so I'd not do it and just focus on collecting more sats or spread it to different assets (alts, bonds, etc).

It's hard to tell and the answer is not a definitive "no". The bear market may not be over yet, you may have to wait 1-2 months for that. Maybe even 3.
But you said it yourself: "Future trading is extremely risky".

September month doesn't really look like it is particularly fantastic for bitcoin so I'm not expecting anything special to happen and trading with high expectations to increase leverage is risky. I expect price range to continue between $20k to $24k till we approach December proper.

Future trading is very tempting to try but is full of risk because if we lose and don't close the trade immediately, we can lose a lot and can't recover it if we can't analyze it well. But even so, I'm always tempted to try it, and sometimes, I can benefit, even if not so much. When the market reverses direction, it is a good time to trade futures because sometimes the price can go up or down sharply and if our trade is in line with the course of the market, we can profit.

First, you have a plan, this is what I like from traders, rather than gambling and thinking they are trading.

Second, you need the patience to actualize this and be sure of the right direction of Bitcoin before opting for this kind of plan. This will increase the chance of your winning.

Third, waiting for the liquidation of as much as $14,000 is a high risk for me. What I have learned in my trading career is to cut my losses short. This approach might eventually work, but another question that should be running through your mind is, what if it eventually hits $14,000? A huge loss would be incurred which is not wise as far as I am concerned.

Lastly, Bitcoin is still bearish in the long-term trend, and based on my weekly chart analysis, if $17625 is breached lower, it might reach around $10,000, which makes it riskier not to manage your trade better.

Yes its quite risky. 3x leverage is a conservative I saw some with 50x to 100x and its movement could be way more profit but also a huge risk to being liquidated. $1k usd is a huge money, so thinking of using that on spot trading and risking it with potential multiplier on altcoins than a very dangerous approach of future trading.

I'm a bad trader. I can only pick the hype (missed the super hype though). Apart from that, in bear market, I look into bitcoin only. I'm accumulating bitcoin ever since BTC got down around $17k. Well, from my experience and thoughts, I think we won’t see any big pump now anymore while it's very likely to get down to $12k or even lower to $10k.
Having leverage position is huge risky. So, play it safely. I would rather buy $1000 worth of bitcoin instead of having leverage poaition. I never had this other than SXP on FTX when we were in a bull market.

Future trading is extremely risky.

This is just a trading discussion and not an advice for anyone to follow. If following it, use the amount of money you can afford to lose. But I think this could be profitable.

Assuming bitcoin is at $20000
Going 3x leverage in long position
That means the iquidation price would be around $14000

Noticing a strong support at $20000, the market is not that going dip further, but we have just entered into the month of September, we do not know what the price of bitcoin could be at some point in the days to come before the end of this month.

Assuming using $1000 for swing trading, but leverage 3x in long position, the liquidation price would be around $14000. Can bitcoin dip down below $14000?

What could be the maximum bitcoin price this month? I am thinking bitcoin could go up to $25000 again this month. What do you think?


The result, if bitcoin reach $25000, from $20000. if using $1000 as trading fund.
If bitcoin increased to $21000, the profit would be around $150
At $22000; the profit of $300
At $23000; the profit of $450
At $24000; the profit of $600
At $25000; the profit of $750

But if it is the other way, so it is the unrealized loss until liquidation at around $14000.

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