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Topic: Gold/BTC parity guessing game! Guess and win some BTC! (current jackpot: 70mBTC) (Read 8641 times)

sr. member
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hero member
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Bump!

Was trying to find an old address and discovered a strange transaction, so I googled it and discovered this old thread.

There should definitely be a winner now Smiley
legendary
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I still have acces to the private key, so place your bets Tongue

necrobumping this, but I still have the private key lol Wink
legendary
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I still have acces to the private key, so place your bets Tongue
legendary
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let's bump this one again.

I still have the private key to the address, don't worry Wink
legendary
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Let's have a go.  Smiley

2013-09-11
18EahzqVgL2bPmFrcrrexzApfwovZG689j

I should have made this a self moderated thread. Plese read the rules of the game first.
The ticket price to participate is 0.01 BTC
newbie
Activity: 44
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Let's have a go.  Smiley

2013-09-11
18EahzqVgL2bPmFrcrrexzApfwovZG689j
legendary
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2014-06-03
1JgUEs5aJzqM8NcWusuj5zphKPZyA3pqM7

please read the rules in the OP Smiley
You need to send some mBTC to be able to participate
legendary
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Let's begin  Cheesy

2014-08-01

1EeottMHyQSBkDNeZr2ZnKUtg58Xv199XD




great, a potential new participant!  Grin

Did you read the rules? You need to send 0.01140801 BTC to 1Ge7zgS2H6QmxG7m78rgAKsVbfn92nse3G.
Your guess will be recorded by the blockchain and nobody else can claim that date

This incentiveses others to participate because now some days are "locked" AND the jackpot goes up.




Ups, I didn't read with careful, to big 0.01 for me  Roll Eyes
Maybe I'll thinking again  Cheesy

ok, no problem mate Smiley

I know 0.01 isn't cheap. It wasn't intended to be an expensive guessing game. And I should probably made it cheaper, but it is impossible to change it now. I'll create a new one for the 10000 USD mark and the ticket price will be lower Wink
newbie
Activity: 43
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2014-06-03
1JgUEs5aJzqM8NcWusuj5zphKPZyA3pqM7
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Let's begin  Cheesy

2014-08-01

1EeottMHyQSBkDNeZr2ZnKUtg58Xv199XD




great, a potential new participant!  Grin

Did you read the rules? You need to send 0.01140801 BTC to 1Ge7zgS2H6QmxG7m78rgAKsVbfn92nse3G.
Your guess will be recorded by the blockchain and nobody else can claim that date

This incentiveses others to participate because now some days are "locked" AND the jackpot goes up.




Ups, I didn't read with careful, to big 0.01 for me  Roll Eyes
Maybe I'll thinking again  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1470
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Let's begin  Cheesy

2014-08-01

1EeottMHyQSBkDNeZr2ZnKUtg58Xv199XD




great, a potential new participant!  Grin

Did you read the rules? You need to send 0.01140801 BTC to 1Ge7zgS2H6QmxG7m78rgAKsVbfn92nse3G.
Your guess will be recorded by the blockchain and nobody else can claim that date

This incentiveses others to participate because now some days are "locked" AND the jackpot goes up.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
Let's begin  Cheesy

2014-08-01

1EeottMHyQSBkDNeZr2ZnKUtg58Xv199XD

legendary
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*bump*

Still alive guys Wink

If a new rally starts, we could reach the gold price within one month. Don't forget that this rule:
Quote
§2 You can not guess the "parity date" as the current date or a day in the next 2 weeks (so 14 days total).

Wich means that the earliest guess you can make is 2014-07-26

the advantage is that if you do this, you "lock" all dates before that date as yours, because nobody placed a guess close to that date (and it isn't possible due to the rules)
legendary
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*bump*

Goldprice going down... BTC on the verge of a new rally?
Parity date could be closer than we think... Who knows?
Smiley


Also... You can participate in Risto's Prediction game.
You need to predict the exchnage rate for the last day of the month in 2014. And the first prize is above 1 BTC !!  Grin
legendary
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Positive vibes for BTC, negative vibes for gold... Time to bump this thread again. Feel free to post guesses. I verified and still have acces to the game address Wink

legendary
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Also edited this rule:
Quote
§4In case bitcoinaverage.com is not available, we use the bitstamp-price.
In case Bitstamp is not available, we use the BTC-e price.
In case goldprice.org is down, we use xe.com

(the original mentioned gox in stead of bitstamp as secundary source. I added BTC-e as third choice
legendary
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to give this game a boost, I decided to drastically change rule number 2:
Quote
§2 You can not guess the "parity date" as the current date or a day in the next 2 weeks (so 14 days total).
For example: When the current GMT date is 2013-11-01 you can not guess/claim 2013-11-01, 2013-11-02, ..., 2013-11-13 and 2013-11-14.
These invalid guesses will also be refunded (minus transaction costs)

this means that if you think we will reach partity in the next 14 days, you need to post your guess NOW! Cheesy



PS: this change of the rule does not affect any of the current guesses. Only one is still valid, but dates back from januari.
PPS: I still got the private key from this address Wink
full member
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Realbitcoin.info
Just a *BUMP* to tell you the game address was spammed with
"Enjoy Sochi"

If those 2 transactions will ever be confirmed, 2 satoshis are added to the jackpot Cheesy

Now we're talking!
legendary
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Just a *BUMP* to tell you the game address was spammed with
"Enjoy Sochi"

If those 2 transactions will ever be confirmed, 2 satoshis are added to the jackpot Cheesy
legendary
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Lets bump this topic again Wink

I edited rule §6 to distribute more prizes Smiley

Quote
§6 The winner (the one who was closest to the actual date) wins all the tickets. If the winning date is at an equal "distance" of 2 guesses, the jackpot will be split amoung them.
The person on the second place wins 50% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
The person on the thrid place wins 25% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
If the jackpot for the first place was split, the person on the third place will receive 75% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
If there is an ex aeqo for the second place, they will both receive 37.5% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
I keep the remaining 25% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.


Current prizes:

[1] 70 mBTC
[2] 4.644505 mBTC
[3] 2.3222525 mBTC



edit: note that the original rule was that I received 100% of the mBTC paid for the guesses Wink
This should be an incentive to guess again! If you get the second price, you get almost half of your ticket back
legendary
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before the crash, we came really close, but no gold parity...

Will we hit it soon, or will we need to wait for more weeks or even months?
legendary
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We are getting close again...

BTCaverage: 1047 USD
1oz Gold: 1222 USD

 Grin
legendary
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Hi all, hi dnaleor!

I'm the owner of todays vote. Seems like it's not a bad bet, although this being saturday, the market might be slower as in workdays.
Wish me luck!

And dnaleor, regardless of the results, make another interesting guessing game like this Smiley

good luck!  Cheesy
we are very close now! BTCaverage was already >1150 USD. Target is 1252.50 USD !!!

and yes, considering other games, but with a few adjustlents:
*lower ticket price (maybe 0.005 or even 0.001), but I need to think of a way to "shorten" the date then...
*maybe a rule that guesses need to be posted 5 days in advance or something?

What do you guys think?


I was thinking to set up a new game for the 10000 USD mark Smiley (or, if there is enough interest, 5000 USD also)



edit: if it happens between 20:00 and 00:00 GMT today, I will not be able to post it here and celebrate with you, because I need to go to a party... But just wait 12 hours and you will get your prize Smiley


edit2: I found a way to lower the ticket price and still be able to put the guess in the date:
if the ticket price is 0.001, a guess would look like this: 0.00113365
This means year 2013 day 365 (31 december)  Smiley
!!! do not use this method to post guesses for this game. The rule of the first post need to be followed !!!
full member
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Realbitcoin.info
And dnaleor, regardless of the results, make another interesting guessing game like this Smiley
+1

Good luck!
newbie
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Hi all, hi dnaleor!

I'm the owner of todays vote. Seems like it's not a bad bet, although this being saturday, the market might be slower as in workdays.
Wish me luck!

And dnaleor, regardless of the results, make another interesting guessing game like this Smiley
legendary
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@dave3k:

sorry man, you were really close, but...

current gold price: 1252 UD
current BTCaverage: 1128 USD

You really came close!
legendary
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good luck all!!!  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

crazy times, did not expect that it was getting so close this early

we are going up again... Now >1100 USD
But gold also is going up: 1247 USD

Bitcoin is chasing Gold it seems Wink
full member
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Realbitcoin.info
Is it my imagination or wasn't gold parity against Gox reached just before 0600 GMT this morning at US$ 1242?!!!





True, however we are going with average bitcoin price not just gox...unfortunately Wink
still 14 hrs left for my guess.
hero member
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Is it my imagination or wasn't gold parity against Gox reached just before 0600 GMT this morning at US$ 1242?!!!



legendary
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legendary
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I discovered that we you play around with the chart slider at the bottom of bitcoinaverage.com, we can have 5 min close intervals. So we will use that Smiley


gold rising a little, currently 1248 USD
bitcoin is going down a little on bitcoinaverage.com the last 5min close is 1056.25
legendary
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jackpot is now 60 mBTC!

The next days will be exciting:
Quote
2013-11-29: 1GoLdyKwQaaZLuvqwp5Sy99xAKjHeXG52B
2013-11-30: 1AzTfV5DZ1nxrMcyTTFXEpcAsYWVThAczS
2013-12-01: 19eLe663ao4jVPqzTksz2CnESt5eMX9tQA

 Grin Grin Grin
legendary
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I'm not entering a guess or trying to win anything.. but it looks like it will happen in the next hour.

All i can say is WOW! That happened pretty fast.

we use bitcoinaverage.com, so it will take a little longer than on gox Smiley
hero member
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I'm not entering a guess or trying to win anything.. but it looks like it will happen in the next hour.

All i can say is WOW! That happened pretty fast.
legendary
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Although I said I would not change the rules, Bitcoinaverage changed their charts, you can now see the 30min price:
https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts.htm#USD|averages

So we will use that also Smiley
legendary
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And we have a first failed guess.
1Mwbsy6g2fR1DMe1AhDcCeU8Wzoz9NRS6Y, you were close, but, today we are 2013-11-28 GMT.
BTC is 1080 USD and gold is 1238 USD.
Close... You can try again Wink

edit: excuse me. Didnt use bitcoinaverage... at bitcoinaverage we are at 1000 USD, not 1080 Smiley
legendary
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Let's have a go.  Smiley

2013-29-11

1GoLdyKwQaaZLuvqwp5Sy99xAKjHeXG52B

Good concept btw.

ok, date claimed, I will update the topic!
Good luck with your guess  Cheesy

edit: jackpot now 50 mBTC!
full member
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Let's have a go.  Smiley

2013-29-11

1GoLdyKwQaaZLuvqwp5Sy99xAKjHeXG52B

Good concept btw.
legendary
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The earliest guess (2013-11-26 by 1Mwbsy6g2fR1DMe1AhDcCeU8Wzoz9NRS6Y) was wrong, but he still has a chance to win. If it is today or tomorrow, he still wins, because those days are unclaimable due to rule 2.

Exciting times Cheesy We broke the 1000 USD barrier, so now the next significant level is Gold Parity !!! Cheesy
legendary
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new guess => new jackpot: 40 mBTC !!!
legendary
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Ok, reorganized the opening post a little, to make it clear.
This is the first time I organize a game, so the rules were not clear.

The posted rules are final now. No changes to the rules will be made.

Please note that rule §2 changed a little, to avoid "last minute guesses":
Quote
You can not guess the "parity date" as the current date or the next day.
For exemple: When the current GMT date is 2013-11-01 you can not guess/claim 2013-11-01 and 2013-11-02.
These invalid guesses will also be refunded (minus transaction costs)

edit: I waited to change this rule to not affect the game. I introduce this today, because, according to the old rules, you can not guess on todays date. But the date of tomorrow is already claimed, so this rule change does not affect the game. The only thing that changed is that, if you want to guess 2013-11-27 as parity date, you need to claim that date today!
legendary
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I haven't voted in this, but this voting system seems like it could be used widely. A system where every voter can be verified (if necessary) (through signing the address), fraudulent voting could be eliminated, and the record of the vote is permanently recorded in the blockchain so cannot be altered by a corrupt organisation. Would this work? Or am I missing something here...

I guess it would work Smiley you even have a timestamp Smiley
legendary
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I haven't voted in this, but this voting system seems like it could be used widely. A system where every voter can be verified (if necessary) (through signing the address), fraudulent voting could be eliminated, and the record of the vote is permanently recorded in the blockchain so cannot be altered by a corrupt organisation. Would this work? Or am I missing something here...
legendary
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we are getting close again:
goldprice: 1242.70 USD
bitcoinaverage: 826.00 USD
hero member
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Space Lord
Reserved for possible future use.
legendary
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What if nobody guesses the right date?

the closest person wins!

(and if 2 people are the same amount of days off, prize will be split off course)
full member
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What if nobody guesses the right date?
legendary
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And... We have a 3th participant! Cheesy

Quote
2013-11-26: 1Mwbsy6g2fR1DMe1AhDcCeU8Wzoz9NRS6Y
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legendary
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March 17, 2014 before retracing back to around $1000

anybody can guess here, no problem, but if you want to win the prize, you need to send the money. In your case 0.01140317 Wink
legendary
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When this date does happen, I believe there'll be much news and fanfare.

You should allow multiple people to bet on the same date. They would just share the pot.


hmmm, Pente joined with the current rules, so I dont think I can change them.
And I think it is more exciting to "lock" a date now in stead of allowing different people for the same date.
It is too easy to "guess" the date 24 hours before the actual date. Wink
hero member
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What doesn't kill you only makes you sicker!
When this date does happen, I believe there'll be much news and fanfare.

You should allow multiple people to bet on the same date. They would just share the pot.
legendary
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Drunk Posts
I hope to see some major coverage of this event in the media. Pretty cool thinking about a bitcoin being worth as much or more than a 1 oz. gold coin. For me, the next milestone will be when a bitcoin is worth a 10 oz. bar of gold. I think I just might buy one for decoration.  Grin

The day that happens, I'm buying a 100oz gold bar, and stamping a private key into it as a physical wallet.
legendary
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I hope to see some major coverage of this event in the media. Pretty cool thinking about a bitcoin being worth as much or more than a 1 oz. gold coin. For me, the next milestone will be when a bitcoin is worth a 10 oz. bar of gold. I think I just might buy one for decoration.  Grin

or as bookend Wink
hero member
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I hope to see some major coverage of this event in the media. Pretty cool thinking about a bitcoin being worth as much or more than a 1 oz. gold coin. For me, the next milestone will be when a bitcoin is worth a 10 oz. bar of gold. I think I just might buy one for decoration.  Grin
legendary
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Pente, it seems that it will be a bet amoung ourselves, and I fear that you will win Wink

At the time I send my bet, I thought that even the 3th of january was too early, but at this rate...

legendary
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I edited the rules a little, to make it more clear and avoid discussions:
Quote
We use the bitcoinaverage.com price (more precisely: the hourly close on BTCaverage should have been at least equal or above the spot gold price at a certain moment in that hour.
We use these charts:
BTC-price: https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts.htm#USD|averages
Gold-price: http://goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/images/gold_1d_b_o_l_USD.png?0.07548413891345263

In case bitcoinaverage.com is not availible, we use the Mt.Gox-price.
In case Mt.Gox is not availible, we use the bitstamp price.
In case goldprice.org is down, we use xe.com
legendary
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already added Smiley

If we get 100 participants, you basically get the value of 1 oz of gold as a price! Cheesy
legendary
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PS: I am trusted in the dutch community, so do not worry! I will not steal your funds.
The wallet is created with a brain wallet, and I wrote down the password and kept it in a safe space Smiley
(password >50 characters!)
legendary
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Claimed dates:
(color indicates the current period in which a certain guess will win the jackpot. If a new bet is placed, this changes)

2014-01-03: 13c6RBxkAoQAdxVTZ7zWtS7B6ehKkdRNQN
2014-01-04: unclaimable
2014-01-05: unclaimable
2014-01-06: unclaimable
2014-01-07: unclaimable
2014-01-08: unclaimable
2014-01-09: unclaimable
2014-01-10: unclaimable
2014-01-11: unclaimable
2014-01-12: unclaimable
2014-01-13: unclaimable
2014-01-14: unclaimable
2014-01-15: unclaimable
2014-01-16: unclaimable
2014-01-17: unclaimable
2014-01-18: unclaimable
2014-01-19: unclaimable
...
2014-06-01: unclaimable
2014-06-02: unclaimable
2014-06-03: unclaimable
2014-06-04: unclaimable
2014-06-05: unclaimable
2014-06-06: unclaimable
2014-06-07: unclaimable
2014-06-08: unclaimable
2014-06-09: unclaimable
2014-06-10: unclaimable
2014-06-11: unclaimable
2014-06-12: unclaimable
2014-06-13: unclaimable
2014-06-14: unclaimable
2014-06-15: unclaimable
2014-06-16: unclaimable
2014-06-17: claimable
2014-06-18: claimable
2014-06-19: claimable
...



This list is updated regulary, but if you want to be sure, check the date on your calendar and check the blockchain for valid guesses Wink

Failed guesses:
Quote
2013-11-26: 1Mwbsy6g2fR1DMe1AhDcCeU8Wzoz9NRS6Y
2013-11-29: 1GoLdyKwQaaZLuvqwp5Sy99xAKjHeXG52B
2013-11-30: 1AzTfV5DZ1nxrMcyTTFXEpcAsYWVThAczS
2013-12-01: 19eLe663ao4jVPqzTksz2CnESt5eMX9tQA
2013-12-06: 1EN8153W21Us5APk5vSBM8f9zdWWTGyMDo
2013-12-24: 1M8QuYgCUv6WamZkJhyUJ7NhxcNNDxR1F2
legendary
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Hi people,

I have a cool idea: let us guess when 1 BTC equals 1 oz of Gold !!

I open a BTC address and people can send their bets to it by using this format:
ticket price + date in Satoshis
Ticket price is 10 mBTC, so a guess for the 3th of januari 2014 would look like this:
0.01140103 BTC

Every ticket will be added to the jackpot !!

CURRENT PRIZES:

FIRST PLACE: 70 mBTC !!!
SECOND PLACE:    4.64450 mBTC
THIRD PLACE:            2.32225 mBTC



RULES:

Quote
§1 Everyone can post guesses. You guess the date in GMT and 1 date can be claimed by only 1 bitcoin address. I will keep a list here.
If a second user/address claims the same date/ammount, this guess will be refunded (minus transaction costs).

§2 You can not guess the "parity date" as the current date or a day in the next 2 weeks (so 14 days total).
For example: When the current GMT date is 2013-11-01 you can not guess/claim 2013-11-01, 2013-11-02, ..., 2013-11-13 and 2013-11-14.
These invalid guesses will also be refunded (minus transaction costs)

§3 We use the USD price on bitcoinaverage.com price (not the global average in USD)
More precisely: the 1min close on BTCaverage should have been at least equal or above the spot gold price at a certain moment in that minute.
We use these charts:
BTC-price: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_minute_24h_sliding_window.csv
Gold-price: http://goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/images/gold_1d_b_o_l_USD.png?0.07548413891345263

§4In case bitcoinaverage.com is not available, we use the bitstamp-price.
In case Bitstamp is not available, we use the BTC-e price.
In case goldprice.org is down, we use xe.com

§5 We use GMT: http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time/scripts/clock-8/runner.php?tz=gmt

§6 The winner (the one who was closest to the actual date) wins all the tickets. If the winning date is at an equal "distance" of 2 guesses, the jackpot will be split amoung them.
The person on the second place wins 50% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
The person on the thrid place wins 25% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
If the jackpot for the first place was split, the person on the third place will receive 75% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
If there is an ex aeqo for the second place, they will both receive 37.5% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
I keep the remaining 25% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.

§7 Send funds from an address you control (you can sign with it) because the winner will receive his prize on the sending address.

Did you read the rules and accept them? Send your guesses to this address: 1Ge7zgS2H6QmxG7m78rgAKsVbfn92nse3G
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