I did not expect banks to be bold in proposing that they might invest in cryptocurrencies or put those ideas publicly?
In the past we could only hear criticism and skepticism, but the language seemed more accepting and open, which may be considered a point around building huge investment funds denominated in digital assets.
The current crisis or any future crises may accelerate such measures.
Topic: @GoldmanSachs:“Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin" (Read 629 times)
June 23, 2020, 08:22:26 AM
June 22, 2020, 01:18:48 PM
...
USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...
USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...
This is because the bulk of the issued dollars are used to support the securities market, rather than going into circulation. Therefore, it does not devalue to other world currencies.Therefore, it does not devalue to other world currencies. In addition, other Central banks also include their own printing press.
June 22, 2020, 11:40:30 AM
WHile gold is going north and trading at around 1740 USD/oz, near the recent highs, GS changed their mind.
Now they see XAU trading at aroun 2,000 USD/oz in the next 12 months.
They are quite conservative on this exstimate, inmho.
They are also changing their view on the effectivenes of Gold hedging against inflation:
For gold prices to go materially above $2000, we believe inflation will need to move above the Fed’s 2% target and this move to be met with a muted policy response. Historically, gold’s relationship with inflation is non-linear. Gold does not display a strong correlation with inflation while the latter is moderate but becomes strongly correlated when inflation gets above a certain threshold. Gold also tends to go up moderately in deflationary environments. In fact, we find that what matters most is the deviation of inflation from its trend, rather than its absolute level (see Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12). This is understandable — investor expectations of future inflation changes through time. For example, while a 5% inflation rate in the early 1980’s may have been perceived as relatively low, today it would represent a large upward surprise to the market. The relationship between gold and inflation gets stronger when we adjust inflation for its trend. The relationship holds in the post-Volcker period that excludes the extremely high inflation of the 1970’s.
So, they are now telling us gold is an effective hedge against inflation when inflation is higher than expected values.
Well, when do you want to be hedged? When inflation is expectedly low?
So, basically, this is a U-turn on their stamentent about gold since their last conference. Something makes me believe their true feelings about Digital Gold are not the ones they exposed in that conference.
Now they see XAU trading at aroun 2,000 USD/oz in the next 12 months.
Quote
Gold has struggled to find a direction since rebounding in late March on the back of the Fed’s ‘QE ‘ announcement as it remains torn between a large negative “Wealth” shock to EM consumers and CB demand and a surge in “Fear” driven DM investment demand. Indeed, the covid shock to EM consumer demand this year has been substantial. India’s gold imports plunged by 99% in April/May, while Russia’s central bank stopped buying gold since the oil price collapse. While the Chinese gold premium (a proxy for onshore demand) has recovered from recent lows, it still remains below its historical average.
Offsetting this weakness has been an unprecedented surge in DM “Fear” driven investment demand. Year-to-date gold coin demand is up 30%, total weight of gold in ETF’s is up 20% YoY and there is a large amount of latent gold demand. As a rule of thumb ETFs capture around half of physical investment volume inflows implying that DM investment demand could be up as much as 1000 tonnes which more than offsets the 700 tonne fall in EM consumer demand.
Such an unstable environment has raised concerns that, as risk-on sentiment improves with DM economies emerging from lockdown, the pace of DM investment demand will moderate due to less “Fear”, while EM “Wealth” demand will take longer to recover — creating room for a correction in gold prices. However, as we have argued in the past gold investment demand tends to grow into the early stage of the economic recovery, driven by continued debasement concerns and lower real rates. Simultaneously we see a material comeback from EM consumer demand boosted by easing of lockdowns and a weaker dollar. Accordingly, we are raising our 3/6/12 month gold price forecasts to $1800/1900/2000/toz from $1600/1650/1800/toz and maintaining our long Dec-20 gold trading recommendation
Offsetting this weakness has been an unprecedented surge in DM “Fear” driven investment demand. Year-to-date gold coin demand is up 30%, total weight of gold in ETF’s is up 20% YoY and there is a large amount of latent gold demand. As a rule of thumb ETFs capture around half of physical investment volume inflows implying that DM investment demand could be up as much as 1000 tonnes which more than offsets the 700 tonne fall in EM consumer demand.
Such an unstable environment has raised concerns that, as risk-on sentiment improves with DM economies emerging from lockdown, the pace of DM investment demand will moderate due to less “Fear”, while EM “Wealth” demand will take longer to recover — creating room for a correction in gold prices. However, as we have argued in the past gold investment demand tends to grow into the early stage of the economic recovery, driven by continued debasement concerns and lower real rates. Simultaneously we see a material comeback from EM consumer demand boosted by easing of lockdowns and a weaker dollar. Accordingly, we are raising our 3/6/12 month gold price forecasts to $1800/1900/2000/toz from $1600/1650/1800/toz and maintaining our long Dec-20 gold trading recommendation
They are quite conservative on this exstimate, inmho.
They are also changing their view on the effectivenes of Gold hedging against inflation:
Quote
For gold prices to go materially above $2000, we believe inflation will need to move above the Fed’s 2% target and this move to be met with a muted policy response. Historically, gold’s relationship with inflation is non-linear. Gold does not display a strong correlation with inflation while the latter is moderate but becomes strongly correlated when inflation gets above a certain threshold. Gold also tends to go up moderately in deflationary environments. In fact, we find that what matters most is the deviation of inflation from its trend, rather than its absolute level (see Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12). This is understandable — investor expectations of future inflation changes through time. For example, while a 5% inflation rate in the early 1980’s may have been perceived as relatively low, today it would represent a large upward surprise to the market. The relationship between gold and inflation gets stronger when we adjust inflation for its trend. The relationship holds in the post-Volcker period that excludes the extremely high inflation of the 1970’s.
So, they are now telling us gold is an effective hedge against inflation when inflation is higher than expected values.
Well, when do you want to be hedged? When inflation is expectedly low?
So, basically, this is a U-turn on their stamentent about gold since their last conference. Something makes me believe their true feelings about Digital Gold are not the ones they exposed in that conference.
June 04, 2020, 03:38:55 AM
A couple of other individuals in the financial sector has also fired back at GoldmanSachs criticism of bitcoin;
Co-founder of Gemini exchange, Tyler Winklevoss wrote on Twitter;
The Swiss bank also replied through their head of digital assets;
This shows that knowledge about Bitcoin is growing and being spread, hence obvious FUDs as an attempt to dissuade investors will no longer have the desired effect.
Co-founder of Gemini exchange, Tyler Winklevoss wrote on Twitter;
Crypto used to be where you ended up when you couldn’t make it on Wall Street. The quality of Goldman Sachs’ recent research on #Bitcoin demonstrates that there has been a talent flippening. Today, Wall Street is where you end up when you can’t make it in crypto.
The Swiss bank also replied through their head of digital assets;
Quote
Chris Thomas of Swissquote Bank published a point-by-point rebuttal of Goldman Sachs’ recent critique of Bitcoin, which Thomas decried as being, “very one-sided, unfair to the crypto community…and a disservice to the Goldman Sachs investor base.”
...
Thomas rebuked Goldman Sachs’ opinion that Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, did not constitute an asset class of its own, writing, “The world is witnessing an emerging asset class being formed… Bitcoin, and select others, are the driving force behind the paradigm shift which is happening, “ wrote Thomas.
“Goldman Sachs is ignoring the strong foundations of this emerging asset class based on cryptographic principles, and a world where many, if not all, assets will be tokenized, and trading them will be democratized,” he added.
“Absolutely, Bitcoin did fall 37%... And just one month later, oil markets plunged 333% in the space of 24 hours, nearly a 10x greater drop, touching a low of MINUS $40 per barrel at one point,” he wrote, adding, “In December 2019, Goldman Sachs predicted the average price of oil through 2020 would be $63 per barrel.”
Thomas told Decrypt he felt obliged to offer a rebuttal to Goldman Sachs’ misinformed, “insulting,” argument. He said Goldman Sachs’ view of cryptocurrency isn’t necessarily typical of all major financial institutions, who must balance their fear of disruption with a willingness to adapt.
“The larger banks are on one side scared of being disrupted, but on the other side, want to open themselves up to new revenue streams and investment opportunities,” Thomas told Decrypt, “JP Morgan changed their tune and onboarded two of the largest crypto companies in the last month.”
Source - https://decrypt.co/31089/swiss-bank-fires-back-at-goldman-sachs-over-bitcoin-critique?amp=1...
Thomas rebuked Goldman Sachs’ opinion that Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, did not constitute an asset class of its own, writing, “The world is witnessing an emerging asset class being formed… Bitcoin, and select others, are the driving force behind the paradigm shift which is happening, “ wrote Thomas.
“Goldman Sachs is ignoring the strong foundations of this emerging asset class based on cryptographic principles, and a world where many, if not all, assets will be tokenized, and trading them will be democratized,” he added.
“Absolutely, Bitcoin did fall 37%... And just one month later, oil markets plunged 333% in the space of 24 hours, nearly a 10x greater drop, touching a low of MINUS $40 per barrel at one point,” he wrote, adding, “In December 2019, Goldman Sachs predicted the average price of oil through 2020 would be $63 per barrel.”
Thomas told Decrypt he felt obliged to offer a rebuttal to Goldman Sachs’ misinformed, “insulting,” argument. He said Goldman Sachs’ view of cryptocurrency isn’t necessarily typical of all major financial institutions, who must balance their fear of disruption with a willingness to adapt.
“The larger banks are on one side scared of being disrupted, but on the other side, want to open themselves up to new revenue streams and investment opportunities,” Thomas told Decrypt, “JP Morgan changed their tune and onboarded two of the largest crypto companies in the last month.”
This shows that knowledge about Bitcoin is growing and being spread, hence obvious FUDs as an attempt to dissuade investors will no longer have the desired effect.
June 03, 2020, 04:30:10 AM
Not to mention cites actual "FaCTs" in evidence unlike the Goldmann ballsacks FUD piece.
A previously stated, that call was at an embarrassing low level, I do agree, they basically recycliced a lot of FUD and informations from old presentation adding a few latest bad news and factoids and unproven speculations on ransomware against COVID workers.So, I am not surprised someone decided to counter that with a good quality research. Just to expose their flawed intentions.
June 02, 2020, 01:43:25 PM
Kraken publicly answered to Goldman Sachs' Bitcoin criticism:
Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.
Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.
Not to mention cites actual "FaCTs" in evidence unlike the Goldmann ballsacks FUD piece.
June 02, 2020, 10:45:06 AM
Kraken publicly answered to Goldman Sachs' Bitcoin criticism:
Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.
Quote
Greetings,
Goldman Sachs’ Consumer and Investment Strategy Group gave a presentation last week that, in our opinion, severely underestimated Bitcoin’s value for global payments and savings.
At Kraken, we feel it’s important to inform our clients why we think differently about this innovative asset that’s core to our brand.
Quite simply, Bitcoin has overcome many barriers to adoption, growing to a $170 billion market capitalization in 10 years with no marketing team, no investment bank backing and no support from governments.
If you’re still new to the technology, it’s important to first understand Bitcoin shares many of the properties that give traditional commodities and government monies value – scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, fungibility and acceptability.
Our Bitcoin primer “Vires In Numeris” is a balanced report that addresses many of Goldman’s arguments and covers topics essential to understanding Bitcoin, including its:
Adoption and Use: Not a currency? The data simply tells a different story. Explore how Bitcoin has grown since 2009 by transaction volume, wallet downloads and mining hashrate, and why these metrics matter.
Origins and History: Too volatile? Learn how Bitcoin has grown out of decades of computer science research to achieve a market never before thought possible. We include a timeline of Bitcoin’s major events and inspirations.
Protocol and Technology: Not suitable for investment? Review the major components of Bitcoin’s protocol and learn how they have been combined to secure value stored on the blockchain for nearly a decade.
Download the Full Report
Please feel free to forward this report to friends, family and coworkers who are interested in learning more. You can read the full Goldman Sachs report and its findings here.
The Kraken Team
Goldman Sachs’ Consumer and Investment Strategy Group gave a presentation last week that, in our opinion, severely underestimated Bitcoin’s value for global payments and savings.
At Kraken, we feel it’s important to inform our clients why we think differently about this innovative asset that’s core to our brand.
Quite simply, Bitcoin has overcome many barriers to adoption, growing to a $170 billion market capitalization in 10 years with no marketing team, no investment bank backing and no support from governments.
If you’re still new to the technology, it’s important to first understand Bitcoin shares many of the properties that give traditional commodities and government monies value – scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, fungibility and acceptability.
Our Bitcoin primer “Vires In Numeris” is a balanced report that addresses many of Goldman’s arguments and covers topics essential to understanding Bitcoin, including its:
Adoption and Use: Not a currency? The data simply tells a different story. Explore how Bitcoin has grown since 2009 by transaction volume, wallet downloads and mining hashrate, and why these metrics matter.
Origins and History: Too volatile? Learn how Bitcoin has grown out of decades of computer science research to achieve a market never before thought possible. We include a timeline of Bitcoin’s major events and inspirations.
Protocol and Technology: Not suitable for investment? Review the major components of Bitcoin’s protocol and learn how they have been combined to secure value stored on the blockchain for nearly a decade.
Download the Full Report
Please feel free to forward this report to friends, family and coworkers who are interested in learning more. You can read the full Goldman Sachs report and its findings here.
The Kraken Team
Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.
May 30, 2020, 01:29:58 PM
So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
And when you consider that even if a cryptocurrency has a significant market cap it doesn't qualify it as being a viable project or an investment option, as such figures can be manipulated.Lumping up all cryptocurrencies together is as silly as doing that to Fiats and projecting the failure of one country's currency on all the others. Reason seems to have taking the backseat to agenda
Your post, Upgrade00, highlighting market cap causes me to reconsider the point that davis196 seems to be making, and he is mentioning shitcoins as having less than $100k market cap..... Huh? What the fuck?
Such a classification that requires some low market cap, such as $100k or lower, would cause a whole fucking lot of shitcoins to be considered as something other than shitcoins. Hopefully, you were not wanting to suggest that davis196?
Maybe that is why you felt some kind of need to appendage bitcoin with a "core" descriptive qualifier?
There should almost be no fucking way that anyone should be considering either of the bcashes as having some kind of status that warrants any kind of meaningful credibility. Sure they have been sucking off the bitcoin tit in a variety ways, and even engaging in deceptive practices trying to imply that they are bitcoin equivalents or something less than a shitcoin, but in the end, any kind of meaningful assessment of either of those pieces of crap should not lead quasi-intelligent people to conclude that they are anything but shitcoins.
I don't necessarily want to get into any kind of discussion of the various possible use cases of shitcoins, such as those bcashes because why give them any kind of glory that they do not deserve, and surely, I am not saying that there might not be ways to make short term killings on their various pumpening events, to the extent that you might be able to figure out how to time such short term bets and are willing to stick your toe into crap projects, and surely another dynamic remains with the likelihood that both of the crap bcash shit projects have a decent number of bag holders that might incentivize them to pump that shit, so sure, both of them might continue to persist for way longer than any kind of reason or logic could really explain.
May 30, 2020, 11:40:09 AM
^^^^
Well said.
Well said.
May 30, 2020, 03:05:59 AM
This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)
"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.
This is no surprise, it is just a reminder of their agenda. Anyone who has been watching them has seen this over and over. I am dumbfounded people still want institutions involved at all and help push their agendas. It makes me sick to see otherwise intelligent posters support these scumsuckers.
Agree.
History of those institutions has long proven they are not focused on their client's interest, rather than their own.
Take care when dealing with them.
In this general framework I reinstate my tough on this.
They are reassuring the vast majority of their client: "Investing in dollars is safe" (dollar won't be debased) , "Investing in us is safe" (Gold hasn't protected from inflation, you have to stay inside the financial market"), "Equity markets are safe, and given the fact more stimulus is coming, equity are meant to moon" TINA (there is no Alternative), give us your money.
In addition, they are sending a message to the regulators, like there is a need too, there is a big circular reference here. We are the good guys, bitcoin is a fraud for dark net users and scammers.
But maybe, don't look at what they say, look at what they do.
They invested in circle, they were among the first banks rumored to have a bitcoin trading desk, before officially scrapping out their plans in 2018. I am not rich enough to be a client of their private wealth management (by several orders of magnitude), but I bet my right ball I could have them to handle my physical bitcoin.
So, this is the way I read all those institutions actions toward bitcoin. For the first time in history, people has the option (an option, it is) to skip intermediaries, so essentially skipping bank.
Banks need a way to stay relevant in this new environment, slowly progressing in the Kübler-Ross model.
May 30, 2020, 02:42:22 AM
So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
And when you consider that even if a cryptocurrency has a significant market cap it doesn't qualify it as being a viable project or an investment option, as such figures can be manipulated.Lumping up all cryptocurrencies together is as silly as doing that to Fiats and projecting the failure of one country's currency on all the others. Reason seems to have taking the backseat to agenda
May 30, 2020, 12:22:51 AM
This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)
"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.
This is no surprise, it is just a reminder of their agenda. Anyone who has been watching them has seen this over and over. I am dumbfounded people still want institutions involved at all and help push their agendas. It makes me sick to see otherwise intelligent posters support these scumsuckers.
May 30, 2020, 12:15:53 AM
This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)
"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.
There is no need to refer to bitcoin as bitcoin core... ... there is only one bitcoin, so that "core" qualifier is not necessary.
Otherwise, I agree with your other points.
May 29, 2020, 11:41:55 PM
This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)
"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.
May 29, 2020, 07:04:00 PM
Interesting thread, thanks for sharing the GS slides.
Bitcoin and select few other crypto currencies offer the answer to the fundamental enigma that the world financial markets have had to live with since the quantitative easing and bail-out sessions of the 2007-8 crisis, which has since become the new norm:
USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...
So, outside of the US, Euro Zone, and China & Japan (the last 2 use similar tactics of artificially devaluing their currency for global competitiveness so in fact can be added to the other group), for the rest of the world, Crypto Currencies are a powerful hedge against the systematic theft of their economic output, and have proven to fulfill store of value and unit of account functions far more profitably than their national currencies have done so for the last decade...
Bitcoin and select few other crypto currencies offer the answer to the fundamental enigma that the world financial markets have had to live with since the quantitative easing and bail-out sessions of the 2007-8 crisis, which has since become the new norm:
USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...
So, outside of the US, Euro Zone, and China & Japan (the last 2 use similar tactics of artificially devaluing their currency for global competitiveness so in fact can be added to the other group), for the rest of the world, Crypto Currencies are a powerful hedge against the systematic theft of their economic output, and have proven to fulfill store of value and unit of account functions far more profitably than their national currencies have done so for the last decade...
May 28, 2020, 11:16:51 PM
I am just waiting when Goldman will rename itself to Bitcoinman 
, once they realize what will be the future currency, asset, or store of value.
, once they realize what will be the future currency, asset, or store of value. May 28, 2020, 11:08:24 AM
Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.
That's smart to keep one ball in reserve in case of a dip.
Hugely important to keep the right in reserve.
May 28, 2020, 08:34:04 AM
Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.
That's smart to keep one ball in reserve in case of a dip.
May 28, 2020, 07:17:00 AM
This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)
May 28, 2020, 04:14:11 AM
For the moment this is the best Twitter reply to the call:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1265703864872964108?s=20
Excately as @bkbirge stated, they conveyed a very cheap and lazy message. My guess is that they were sending a "message" to someone to reassure their stance on bitcoin. I cannot believe they genuinely believe in the crap their sold to their client. And I am referring also to the previous slides, not only the bitcoin-related ones.
EDIT: Second position:
https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1265705272678498305
Quote
You are ahead of the curve if you learn why
- You should use log scale for BTC
- BCH/SV & other forks are NOT identical to BTC
- BTC is NOT a Ponzi
- Money laundering is NOT higher for BTC than USD
- Hacked exchange is NOT the same as hacked BTC
- BTC is NOT like 1637 tulip mania
- You should use log scale for BTC
- BCH/SV & other forks are NOT identical to BTC
- BTC is NOT a Ponzi
- Money laundering is NOT higher for BTC than USD
- Hacked exchange is NOT the same as hacked BTC
- BTC is NOT like 1637 tulip mania
 |  | |
 |  |
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1265703864872964108?s=20
Excately as @bkbirge stated, they conveyed a very cheap and lazy message. My guess is that they were sending a "message" to someone to reassure their stance on bitcoin. I cannot believe they genuinely believe in the crap their sold to their client. And I am referring also to the previous slides, not only the bitcoin-related ones.
EDIT: Second position:
Quote
Goldman Sachs: In 2019, $2.8 billion in Bitcoin was sent to currency exchanges from criminal entities.
Fun Fact: Goldman Sachs facilitated $6 billion in money laundering via 1MDB scandal between 2012-13.
Fun Fact: Goldman Sachs facilitated $6 billion in money laundering via 1MDB scandal between 2012-13.
https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1265705272678498305
May 28, 2020, 12:57:34 AM
Well, the content of the client call was quite disappointing especially for those in the Bitcoin community who were very much interested in the discussions. It appears to seem that their stance has not still changed on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, and they're using very crude examples to support that stance.
While I was disappointed, the fact that after theses years they are still trying to slow the growth of cryptocurrency using their influence without success, is a plus to the Bitcoin network. When I last heard of their fud was in 2018, and at that time to now, Bitcoin has soared in price and adoption.
While I was disappointed, the fact that after theses years they are still trying to slow the growth of cryptocurrency using their influence without success, is a plus to the Bitcoin network. When I last heard of their fud was in 2018, and at that time to now, Bitcoin has soared in price and adoption.
May 28, 2020, 12:55:38 AM
Thanks very much for sharing the information and resources.
These guys are such nincompoops, as @bkbirge stated, cherry picking data to support a foregone conclusion they've already made before they began to populate Slide 1.
To keep things in perspective, they should compare the numbers for Ponzi schemes with those that run on Wall St, similarly should compare the $ values of money laundering via crypto to that conducted by the banking industry (maybe to GS' own ML desk). Safe to say - f*ck these nincompoops!
These guys are such nincompoops, as @bkbirge stated, cherry picking data to support a foregone conclusion they've already made before they began to populate Slide 1.
To keep things in perspective, they should compare the numbers for Ponzi schemes with those that run on Wall St, similarly should compare the $ values of money laundering via crypto to that conducted by the banking industry (maybe to GS' own ML desk). Safe to say - f*ck these nincompoops!
May 27, 2020, 08:12:49 PM
Let me state this in the most deferential way possible.
Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.
Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.
May 27, 2020, 07:47:27 PM
This is a case of cherry picking data to support a-priori conclusions. Smartest guy in the room logic.
May 27, 2020, 06:06:06 PM
This is fairly tame and repetitive stuff. A bit niggly on their part - they must have enjoyed screwing with us with their pre-announcements.
Yep, quite underwhelming now that I've seen the whole thing. Hacking, Ponzi schemes, ransomware, money laundering, darknet markets? This could have been written in 2013!
We should keep in mind that this report is centered around investment strategies in the times of covid-19 aftermath, and I think they are correct here - Bitcoin failed to act as short-term hedge, so investors should not view it as such, and instead base their decision to invest in it on either TA or long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin.
Nothing hedges a liquidity crisis.
The more interesting question is whether BTC acts as a hedge against inflation. Too early to judge if you ask me.
May 27, 2020, 05:33:10 PM
This is fairly tame and repetitive stuff. A bit niggly on their part - they must have enjoyed screwing with us with their pre-announcements. It shows a bit of fear, but they have yet to fire off more than a few darts in our direction. Plenty of time yet therefore in which to accumulate before their rising panic pushes the price up beyond our means.
May 27, 2020, 05:08:37 PM
I had the opportunity to listen to the audio and thought that a it would have been a value to share th actual content of the call, in addition to the slides.
First of all, here the link for the slides.
US Economic Outlook & Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin (15th in our COVID-19 Series)
Here instead a transcript of what has been said during the conference, only in the part relative to bitcoin.
Please notice that this took less than 5 minutes at the very end of the call (literally: the call lasted exactly 60 minutes and they started talking about bitcoin in minute 55).
On page 32 we highlighted how these cryptocurrency has been used for very illicit activities from Ponzi schemes to money laundering, to Dark Net where people buy illicit goods to actually ransomware, and it's important just to recognise that least what we've highlighted in red is from 2019, so this not old information, this is current information where people use cryptocurrencies to actually have ransomware attacks on let's say emergency responders and healthcare providers. Obviously, we intentionally highlighted those two, given the current state of the pandemic.
It is also important to recognise that there's a lot of hacking and inadvertent losses with digital wallets, all kind of issues, and we've highlighted them on page 33..
First of all, here the link for the slides.
US Economic Outlook & Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin (15th in our COVID-19 Series)
Here instead a transcript of what has been said during the conference, only in the part relative to bitcoin.
Please notice that this took less than 5 minutes at the very end of the call (literally: the call lasted exactly 60 minutes and they started talking about bitcoin in minute 55).
Quote
What about bitcoin, initially bitcoin had been proposed as a currency and, on page 29, we show what are the requirements for a currency: it has to be a reasonable medium of exchange, it has to be a reasonable unit of account; it has to be a reasonable store of value. Bitcoin does not offer any of that, none of the cryptocurrencies do. And so people have moved from bitcoin being suggested as a digital currency to being an asset class. We don't believe that cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, are appropriate as an asset class. Let’s look at page 30 to see why that the case.
Quote
First, it doesn’t generate any cash-flow like bonds, or the cash-flows from equities that are generated from their business, it is not generate any earning through exposure to Global economic growth, it doesn’t provide consistent diversification given very unstable correlations, it is doesn't dampen volatility given his historical volatility of 76%, compared equities to in the mid to high teens. On March 12 2020 the price of Bitcoin fell 37% in one day, and so we just want clients to actually see the kind of volatility we are talking about and there's no evidence, one way or another, whether it is inflation hedges because we haven't had much inflation since bitcoin was introduced.
So, the thought that one wants to own something because somebody else will pay for it by buying it at a higher price, always relying on somebody else who want to pay for it is not a suitable investment, in our view, for our clients.
So, the thought that one wants to own something because somebody else will pay for it by buying it at a higher price, always relying on somebody else who want to pay for it is not a suitable investment, in our view, for our clients.
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People have also quoted a lot of hedge funds saying they are going to be trading cryptocurrencies, and while something this volatile might be very appropriate for hedge funds and who wants to trade it because of the high volatility, that allure in our view does not s not constitute a viable investment rationale.
We also want to make sure clients know that cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are not scarce commodities. There are many cryptocurrencies out there and even bitcoin has forked and we have not just regular bitcoin, but now we have bitcoin cash and bitcoin SV.
We also want to make sure clients know that cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are not scarce commodities. There are many cryptocurrencies out there and even bitcoin has forked and we have not just regular bitcoin, but now we have bitcoin cash and bitcoin SV.
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On page 32 we highlighted how these cryptocurrency has been used for very illicit activities from Ponzi schemes to money laundering, to Dark Net where people buy illicit goods to actually ransomware, and it's important just to recognise that least what we've highlighted in red is from 2019, so this not old information, this is current information where people use cryptocurrencies to actually have ransomware attacks on let's say emergency responders and healthcare providers. Obviously, we intentionally highlighted those two, given the current state of the pandemic.
It is also important to recognise that there's a lot of hacking and inadvertent losses with digital wallets, all kind of issues, and we've highlighted them on page 33..
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Page 34 is probably one of the most interesting pages. We published this in early 2018, in our 2018 Outlook. What we see in exhibit one is NASDAQ, S&P 500 and TOPIX, TOPIX has different points of equity market bubbles, so 2000 example for the S&P and NASDAQ. We then move on to the middle one and we show the bitcoin in the context of the equity market bubbles as well as the prices for tulip bulbs in 1634 thru 1637, which was considered an extreme mania. So, tulip mania was the poster child for mania and then we show you where Bitcoin prices has gone, so clearly unreasonable pricing. And then we show you on the 3rd exhibit where Ehter was relative to bitcoin, and Bitcoin ended being like a flatline.
So the pricing here in our view is quite arbitrary and random and volatile.
So the pricing here in our view is quite arbitrary and random and volatile.
May 27, 2020, 04:12:32 PM
Thanks for sharing that. Are there more slides available? All the Reddit threads I'm pulling up from searches are from several days ago.
It's actually nice to see they aren't too bullish on the fundamentals (bad for diversification, no evidence of inflation hedging) since I distrust their publicly available opinions, but I'm worried this slide is being taken out of context. I'm curious if they discuss more technical and price-related stuff.
Also curious what they had to say about gold and inflation.
Here's the full report - https://resources.goldman.com/content/dam/pwm/direct-links/isg-calls/client_call_materials_27May20.pdf?sa=n&rd=n
Got the link from Coindesk - https://www.coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-cryptocurrencies-are-not-an-asset-class
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We do not recommend bitcoin on a strategic or tactical basis for clients’ investment portfolios even though its volatility might lend itself to momentum-oriented traders.
We should keep in mind that this report is centered around investment strategies in the times of covid-19 aftermath, and I think they are correct here - Bitcoin failed to act as short-term hedge, so investors should not view it as such, and instead base their decision to invest in it on either TA or long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin.
May 27, 2020, 03:58:05 PM
https://i.redd.it/4b1eoc9dnb151.jpg
Like I said it here earlier, they aren't bullish on Bitcoin, they used it as an opportunity to criticize it.
Like I said it here earlier, they aren't bullish on Bitcoin, they used it as an opportunity to criticize it.
Thanks for sharing that. Are there more slides available? All the Reddit threads I'm pulling up from searches are from several days ago.
It's actually nice to see they aren't too bullish on the fundamentals (bad for diversification, no evidence of inflation hedging) since I distrust their publicly available opinions, but I'm worried this slide is being taken out of context. I'm curious if they discuss more technical and price-related stuff.
Also curious what they had to say about gold and inflation.
May 27, 2020, 12:22:40 PM
https://i.redd.it/4b1eoc9dnb151.jpg
Like I said it here earlier, they aren't bullish on Bitcoin, they used it as an opportunity to criticize it. And I think it's fine, if they don't want to trade it and suggest it to their clients, then they shouldn't force themselves to do so, Bitcoin is still a huge risk and institutional investors hate big risks and unpredictability. And it's not like true bitcoiners need validation from banks or something.
Like I said it here earlier, they aren't bullish on Bitcoin, they used it as an opportunity to criticize it. And I think it's fine, if they don't want to trade it and suggest it to their clients, then they shouldn't force themselves to do so, Bitcoin is still a huge risk and institutional investors hate big risks and unpredictability. And it's not like true bitcoiners need validation from banks or something.
May 25, 2020, 08:25:42 AM
In case you missed, as I did on my first read, here is the link to register to the Webcast.
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1323195&tp_key=71370c5805
From there it would be probably possible also to download slides.
I will try to smuggle all the possible material here, if not too heavilty digitally marked.
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1323195&tp_key=71370c5805
From there it would be probably possible also to download slides.
I will try to smuggle all the possible material here, if not too heavilty digitally marked.
thanks for the link, its always amusing to see confident people do a u-turn without accepting any responsibility for their statements.
May 25, 2020, 07:44:58 AM
In case you missed, as I did on my first read, here is the link to register to the Webcast.
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1323195&tp_key=71370c5805
From there it would be probably possible also to download slides.
I will try to smuggle all the possible material here, if not too heavilty digitally marked.
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1323195&tp_key=71370c5805
From there it would be probably possible also to download slides.
I will try to smuggle all the possible material here, if not too heavilty digitally marked.
May 24, 2020, 06:27:13 PM
It's nice to note the U turn taken by the main host of this conference.
Apparently, back in the 2018 he had a very different approach to cryptocurrencies, and namely Bitcoin:
Apparently, back in the 2018 he had a very different approach to cryptocurrencies, and namely Bitcoin:
That report was more about price than anything else. They cited the 2017 mania and the need for the market to unwind given weak underlying fundamentals. As it turned out they were very right. BTC dropped from $7,500 to the $3,100s in the months that followed publication.
Despite the correctness of that August 2018 call, be wary if Goldman Sachs seems particularly bullish on BTC. Did anyone notice how Paul Tudor Jones hyping BTC marked the top? I will laugh so hard if BTC drops below $8K and confirms an interim bear market now.
Wall Street firms are always thinking two steps ahead. No matter what, they are talking their book and using public sentiment against retail investors.
May 24, 2020, 03:47:23 PM
Honestly, we don't actually know the content of the call, so it's a bit of a stretch to say that Goldman Sachs made a 180 - they could easily be criticizing Bitcoin there, saying that it failed to act as a hedge against covid-caused market crash. But the fact that they talk about Bitcoin is already pretty surprising, I thought that they just don't care, but instead we see that they put it together in one group with gold and fiat. That, in my mind, is already quite remarkable.
May 24, 2020, 03:18:19 AM
I came across a picture that depicts the change in stance within ~2 years
I can't verify the source or when it was created but it should have been sometime last week.
Bitcoin needs more adoption and discussions about it. I organya webinar on bitcoin and blockchain some weeks back and realized that a lot of people have the wrong idea about it, even through they know so little of it.
I can't verify the source or when it was created but it should have been sometime last week.
Bitcoin needs more adoption and discussions about it. I organya webinar on bitcoin and blockchain some weeks back and realized that a lot of people have the wrong idea about it, even through they know so little of it.
May 23, 2020, 11:44:53 AM
Of course all these big companies will soften on bitcoin and that was a given considering even a regular person could make a profit from it, so they wanted to make a profit for themselves. That is how business works, when they see something that others could use to profit and leave them, they will be very against it, after all it lowers their profits but it wasn't really a big deal just yet.
Now that its a bigger deal, they realized that they could not just keep discrediting bitcoin hoping that people will not leave, so what they did was join the wave and become a part of it as well. This way they could at least offer their customers bitcoin purchases and so forth as well and it would help them make even more profits instead of losing profits to begin with. Makes sense that the trajectory was something like this, we wouldn't have expected anything else.
Now that its a bigger deal, they realized that they could not just keep discrediting bitcoin hoping that people will not leave, so what they did was join the wave and become a part of it as well. This way they could at least offer their customers bitcoin purchases and so forth as well and it would help them make even more profits instead of losing profits to begin with. Makes sense that the trajectory was something like this, we wouldn't have expected anything else.
May 23, 2020, 05:58:22 AM
It's nice to note the U turn taken by the main host of this conference.
Apparently, back in the 2018 he had a very different approach to cryptocurrencies, and namely Bitcoin:
https://twitter.com/dogetoshi/status/1263849866524049408?s=21
https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1025389953134542848?s=20
It will be interesting how she will Justify this change of mind, something I think she will be obliged to clarify during the conference.
Apparently, back in the 2018 he had a very different approach to cryptocurrencies, and namely Bitcoin:
 |  |
https://twitter.com/dogetoshi/status/1263849866524049408?s=21
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This Statement was given by Sharmin Mossavar-Rahamani, CIO of the Private Wealth Management Group(Goldman Sachs) while having frappuccino at local Starbucks and fat fingering those $btc market buys on bitmex.
https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1025389953134542848?s=20
It will be interesting how she will Justify this change of mind, something I think she will be obliged to clarify during the conference.
May 22, 2020, 04:54:55 PM
It's a mantra I repeat many time: "It's not that Bitcoin needs Wall Street, it is Wall Street that needs Bitcoin".
So now, in 2020, after a whole decade spent in denial first, anger and then depression, they might have progressed on the Kubler Ross Grief Cyle towards bargaining and maybe acceptance.
Of course a bank is interested in Bitcoin. Forget Jamie Dimon, banks are struggling to use bitcoin as an uncorrelated and high volatility asset to spice up their portfolios.
And even if they don't think Bitcoin would be useful to themselves, they can sell a lot of bitcoin related products and services to their clients, simply profiting on fees and commission without taking directional exposure.
In Italy and Germany many neobanks (some sort of of banking startups) have already integrated bitcoin in their offerings, selling to clients custody and bai trading services.
So I do believe it is more than natural that GS is starting to "sell" bitcoin to their clients.
Banks need bitcoin not to die, to stay relevant in a system that can, for the first time in history, stay alive without them.
I will unleash some spies on mine to access that presentation.
So now, in 2020, after a whole decade spent in denial first, anger and then depression, they might have progressed on the Kubler Ross Grief Cyle towards bargaining and maybe acceptance.
Of course a bank is interested in Bitcoin. Forget Jamie Dimon, banks are struggling to use bitcoin as an uncorrelated and high volatility asset to spice up their portfolios.
And even if they don't think Bitcoin would be useful to themselves, they can sell a lot of bitcoin related products and services to their clients, simply profiting on fees and commission without taking directional exposure.
In Italy and Germany many neobanks (some sort of of banking startups) have already integrated bitcoin in their offerings, selling to clients custody and bai trading services.
So I do believe it is more than natural that GS is starting to "sell" bitcoin to their clients.
Banks need bitcoin not to die, to stay relevant in a system that can, for the first time in history, stay alive without them.
I will unleash some spies on mine to access that presentation.
May 22, 2020, 04:40:25 PM
At the investor's invitation, the investment bank is holding a client call on “US Economic Outlook & “Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin.” Yes Bitcoin, you did not mistake me reading the phrase. 
There is no further information about the contents of the call outside the headline and it may be intended to discuss how the current central bank policy and the risk of monetary inflation affect assets such as bitcoin and gold. Where the Federal Reserve printed more than $ 3 trillion through a mixture of quantitative easing and financial programs.
It's good to see a change in goldman's tone, quote a response from 2014:
Read more and source ---> https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinharper/2020/05/22/goldman-sachs-is-hosting-a-call-about-bitcoin-gold-and-inflation/#f7655bd1effa
There is no further information about the contents of the call outside the headline and it may be intended to discuss how the current central bank policy and the risk of monetary inflation affect assets such as bitcoin and gold. Where the Federal Reserve printed more than $ 3 trillion through a mixture of quantitative easing and financial programs.
It's good to see a change in goldman's tone, quote a response from 2014:
By Currie’s reasoning, commodities become supplanted when a better commodity comes along, so, for him, the question is whether Bitcoin solves an economic problem that currently exists with gold.
“The short answer is no,” Currie writes. “Gold is not failing as a store of value as wood failed as a sources of energy in steam engines. Steam locomotives could go farther and faster on coal. But Bitcoin does not improve upon gold.”
“The short answer is no,” Currie writes. “Gold is not failing as a store of value as wood failed as a sources of energy in steam engines. Steam locomotives could go farther and faster on coal. But Bitcoin does not improve upon gold.”
Read more and source ---> https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinharper/2020/05/22/goldman-sachs-is-hosting-a-call-about-bitcoin-gold-and-inflation/#f7655bd1effa
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