Topic: Good read on the future of the dollar (Read 1744 times)

Yes there is no chance of dollar to collapse in a single day. But we can expect a slow down in dollar's appreciations against all major currencies as well as bitcoin. Bitcoin would replace dollar from the world wide currency reference. Bitcoin would be used as international medium of exchange.

Even if I believe the dollar might collapse, I can still continue to use the dollar as long as my exposure is hedged. Moreover, nobody expects the dollar to collapse overnight. It will be a slow decay.

I think future of the dollar is not so bright but will remain the main currency for global trade. Over the years dollar is falling against the EURO and pound,  its not fighting back so the future is not so bright. Totally agreed as someone said earlier that it also depends on a lot of things and factors like interest rates, the growth rate of the economy and growth rate of other economies etc.

If your prediction will become true there is no sense on it. If the us dollar collapse in the future there is now chance that it continue to be the main currency in international trade. Who will want one currency which is collapse or collapsing in continuation? Only one stupid. Because using that money will lose from the collapse. Needed to use more money the next time of buying something in the same amount. There is no sense to do this.

As for the fall of dollar against euro your are again wrong. Only this year us dollar has gain about 25% of its value. See for more this article: http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/16/investing/us-dollar-fastest-rise-40-years/

I think it is hard to compare the length of time the USD will be top dog with currencies of past empires. We live in a totally different world and there are plenty of different factors that those empires didn't face. Sure, things like over extension of military and over leveraging are common themes among declining empires, but I think the world/US economy post WW2 and especially since the 70's are truly uncharted waters. I do not think this experiment will end well and I feel like it is impossible to predict what will come next. All this quantitative easing, based on their(the fed) past experience, was supposed to bring us out of this recession quicker/stronger. Their unwillingness to raise interest rates because what they expected to happen by now has not, should be people very uneasy about the future of the economy and the dollar.

I think dollar will be collapse in future but will remain the main currency for international trade. Yes it does not look good for years dollar its falling against the euro and british pound and it aint fighting back so the future is not so bright. It also depends on a lot of things and factors like interest rates, the growth rate of the economy and growth rate of other economies etc.

I will admit that the US looks very different from the inside than from the outside.  (Looks better from the outside.)  Life is still not too bad for most people, but to have a good career these days, you basically need to be in finance, technology, or be lucky.  The strong dollar over the last few decades is pricing most other people out of global markets (and global products flooding into the US itself,) and the elites are *not* about to let the dollar decline (since they receive so many benefits from issuing financial assets) if they can help it.  (If this is sustained, it would be similar to the Dutch situation, below.)

We know the US will lose reserve currency status at some point.  Historically, life after loss of this status was OK for Britain, as US monetary power rose immediately after World War I and was happy to help ease Britain's monetary decline.  But I imagine the story must be different when this happened to the Netherlands (after about 1700.)  Life was good for the already-rich and the people who worked in a prosperous financial industry, but I imagine everyone else must have had a pretty tough downgrade in living standards.

For the US, the next ranking (eligible) power is China, which is not friendly.  The only hope for the US IMO is that the world bypasses China and give global reserve status to India in a few decades, but India is still far behind China economically.  My bet is still on a Dutch-style, not British-style transition for the US.

Based on the unfortunately limited historical data points on global currencies in the modern West, a very rough estimate would be 100 years for each reigning top dog under monetary inflation.

The Dutch Golden Age (where monetary inflation took the form of public debt rather than money itself, but with no essential difference) went from early 1600s to late 1600s to early 1700s.

British global monetary dominance went from about 1815 to 1914 (onset of World War I.)

The US was ready to be heir for this status after the founding of the Fed in 1913, but the dollar started rapidly playing the role of gold in the global system only after World War I (1918.)

I will admit that, with data this sparse, it's probably best not to trust it too much, but here it is FWIW.  (And if you're the superstitious type, the almost exact 100-year figures are pretty eerie.)

You are in big wrong. To many people from all the other countries apply to go at United States and if they win it is a great party for those. They go there without nothing and without the needed knowledge. They want only to enter there and then make the impossible to adapted to the life of the Americans. There are intellectuals which make laborer work only to stay there and to secure a future to their children. You are there and want to move? If someone in my country will hear this will remain thunderstruck and shocked.

The dollar's future is very interesting I wonder in 5 years time will it still be at use? Or maybe replaced.

The dollar has dominated the financial and monetary system for more than 50 years.  Even though there has been talks about the rise of yuan, the dollar still dominates.

It is still going to be decades that the dollar will be the world's reserve currency.  This is the consensus among currency experts.

Dollar's value been rising up recently and it helps a lot of people I mean it benefit some people as well.

Dollar's future is something is really interesting, dollar's value may rise and fall and it affects the economy so much and as well as the people.

Meh.. I don't really see a positive future for the U.S. In general so I think moving in the near future would be beneficial to me.

You don't have to move.
Just move your assets. 

I agree that the private banks will do everything in their power to keep the dollar from crashing, including wars and the like... But the truth of the matter is, is that this currency, along with any fiat for that matter, can not last long with trillions of dollars in debt... It's simply not feasible. As for me, I'm looking into the best countries to move too in the next 5 years so I can get as far away as possible from this inevitable disaster.

 Yes dollar is dangerous for the world,currency backed by trilions dollars debt,euro is not alternative for dollar,never will be,but Chinise are working to have two reserve currencys,yuan and dollar

well is true that US have lot of power influence on the world but beleive me, things are changing faster, more than expected, people seems to didnt notice it yet, but im pretty sure than in 5-10 years it will change a lot.

some people still waiting for a crash, but i start to think that a big change it is preparing right now and it will be faster and silent.

Thanks for all your replies.

Even though US political and military power and financial "engineering" help support the dollar, the US economy itself is still a major pillar.  A dollar is, ultimately, a claim on the future products and services of the US.  If the distortions created by the dollar's special status cause the US to decline too fast, it's not good for the dollar.

Military power also used to be more important than today.  The real reason Britain joined World War One (with the official reason still mysterious, as for the 2003 Iraq invasion) was probably to land an economic knockout blow to Germany, so that global reserve currency status went not to Germany but to the US, which was much more willing to help Britain ease into its own decline.  In the modern age, China will probably not share Germany's fate, since all you need is a nuclear deterrent, which China has.

All things considered, China would probably be a worse custodian of global money than the US, but China's presence as a more or less intact big economy will be a constant source of competition for monetary power over the long term.

In a more multipolar world (as during 18th-century global competition between Britain and France,) neutral currencies like gold, silver and Bitcoin tend to benefit from the competitive environment, as no state-issued currency will want to expose itself to its opponents by being too highly leveraged.

I understand that, right now, the dollar looks very strong.  Both the article and the above deal with longer term issues.  In the short term, only the elites can win, anyway.

Dollar is strong despite what people may think. It does not matter that China is the leading economy of the world now.
USD will be official currency of the stock markets and oil traders for years. Central bank of US and FRB won't let it fall so easily.

in fact without even looking at the graph that we already know that the dollar would be the best currency in the world 

The dollar now dominate the world market, making dollar demand much more exposed than other currencies. time saving and speculate to be trading dollars.

Let's hope that's the case because im getting tired of waiting for a crash. As long as people keep accepting USD it seems that the snowball can get getting bigger and bigger indefinitely. I just hope people will jump on Bitcoin by then instead of whatever new coin the goverment comes up with.

From the article:

"For 70 years the dollar has been the superpower of the financial and monetary system. Despite talk of the yuan’s rise, the primacy of the greenback is unchallenged. As a means of payment, a store of value and a reserve asset, nothing can touch it."

"The dollar has no peers."

Despite the subsequent analysis and the dual conclusion at the end of article those above are the most significant words about the us dollar. It was, it is and it will be even for more time to come the king of currencies. Its power is supported by the strength, the agility and the potential to restructure in a fast way itself in moments of crisis, of its economy. To not forget here the almost total dominance in the military field of its country.  

It is not America’s economic might that validates the dollar’s claims as mentioned, and this piece somehow dodges to reveal the true reason behind the dollar supremacy. I mean the US military "muscle". As long as the US controls major naval routes, I think nothing can threaten the US dollar dominance. Russia doesn't seem to be particularly interested in changing the present state of affairs, China is just militarily weak so far (their fleet being locked in the South China Sea)...

The higher the bubble the longer it takes to pop. Dollar was a hegemon of world currencies for over a century.
An it could be another 100 years when we see it fall. I highly doubt that some other currency will take the leading role in next 20-30 years in place of USD.

this time with a stronger dollar graphic increase of almost all currencies in the world, I think the dollar is invest in the short term 

Excellent article. People talk about the baton of reserve currency of the world being passed from dollar to the Euro / Yuan.
It will take a lot more time before people start considering Bitcoin as a serious contender.

Many great empires inflated their currency towards the end of their reigns, They all end up crashing and the USD is no different.

IMO this is one of the more insightful and succinct recent analyses of the Economist magazine (the last defender of the modern world system:)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21669875-americas-economic-supremacy-fades-primacy-dollar-looks-unsustainable-dominant-and