Topic: Government ban on bitcoin will crash bitcoin or the other way? (Read 2720 times)

"necroposter" - Learned a new word today

So, besides being a good necroposter - twolifeinexile has decided to "stir the pot" on his own. What, couldn't find any more Atlas threads to resurrect?

They are LAWS, grounded in the LEGAL system. Obviously we can find holes in the logic of drug laws, but the basic premise that "drugs are bad m'kay", can be supported by real evidence. So I am still wondering on what grounds (ie what premise) could you make a p2p crypto-system illegal. Cryptography IS freedom of speech.

Civ 5!  

Ok, here's my prediction:

- For the sake of example, we'll say that the US deems it illegal.
- A massive sell-off would occur
- Bitcoin would immediately lose at least 90% of its value (there are few who are interested in doing anything illegal).
- Other first-world countries would follow suit.
- Bitcoin would drop another 50% in value (total of 95%).
- It would continue to be used by niche/fringe crowds of libertarians and black market traders.
- Price would very slowly rise after a few months of shrinkage, possibly recovering completely and rising beyond even the current price levels, depending on how much it is used in the underground.
- Bitcoin would never achieve mainstream use at this point.
- Governments might create their own crypto-currencies, but create them in such a way that they still control the issuance of the currency.  People would accept this as ok, because the government knows best, right?

I uhh, Dont see where the logic breaks apart... Yes you could do it with FRN's but that would be considered "under the table" work, wich is frowned upon
Wouldnt it be?

I see what you mean tho, and Im in a position of confusion, so dont take my word for it

To prevent "tax evasion"
Imagine if your boss paied you in BTC, BOOM, No more income tax.

On what logical grounds could bitcoin ever be made "illegal". 

When ever I'm stuck in a bureaucratic process and I ask myself "Why do we need this?" I have to think of this quote:

"The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy."

oh, this is good.

There have been many instances of government bans on products & currencies, all throughout recorded history.

I can't think of a single example where, in the long run, a product or currency went down in price or in demand after a ban.  Price always goes up, and demand stays the same or rises.  Perhaps someone with better memory or research tools can provide counterexamples, but my guess is that they will be very small in number.  Particularly for currencies.

Take a look at currencies banned right now (typically USD) in various economically repressive countries.  In all these places, USD are craved, and carry nice premiums in black markets.  Same thing will happen to Bitcoin if anyone is stupid enough to try to ban its usage:

Current countries with foreign exchange controls

The U.S government is a huge, bureaucratic nightmare where dreams go to die.

I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.

Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:


 "The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
 
Eugene J McCarthy

Didn't the U.S. ban/outlaw the use and possession of gold way back in the day? How did that work out?

No, it doesn't but it would naive to think that a large government (like the US) or a coordinated government move couldn't cause significant disruption if it felt inclined. 

That being said, I bet if I walked down the street and asked 10 people what silk road was, chances are 10 out of 10 would have no idea.  Now if I asked those same 10 people if they knew about the Sandy Hook Elementary tragedy, I'm willing to bet 9 out of 10 would know what I'm talking about.  BTC has obviously come a long ways since silk road, that's not what I'm saying, what I'm saying is politicians want votes and are too busy with bigger fish to fry (right now gun control).  Until BTC becomes a mainstream nuisance that can buy votes, I don't think the politicians will care very much.  A ban would just bring more attention at this point, something I doubt they want.

What government? Bitcoin does not need any government support or permission.

Strike bitcoin down, and it will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine...

*puts on tin foil hat*

you think the central banks don't know their currency is worthless
you think they don't see that people are waking up to this fact.
you think satoshi nakamoto invented bitcoin? hahahahaha

Dude, that's already the case.  For that matter, that's by design.

It's already too late for that to matter.  Certainly some governments will eventually declare Bitcoin illegal within their own borders, but a few in Europe have already acknowledged that it's a legal commodity.  Even in the United States, an outright ban isn't practically possible for complex legal reasons.  The Liberty Dollar isn't illegal, only it's production is, and only because of it's similarities to the US Dollar (which is a rediculous concept, but bitcoins don't, by their nature, use paper at all.)  Regular citizens cannot be prosecuted for the mere possession of bitcoins, although transactions within the US will eventually be illegal; probably by a court precedent that finds that US to US transactions in bitcoins amount to evidence of tax evasion.

No matter how it all goes down, governments are notoriously slow to respond to such things as Bitcoin, and it's already too late to kill it.  That point passed two years ago.

When Obama declares the War on Bitcoin, it is time to go all in.

That is the point I am speculating and not that sure ("Bitcoin will be hit hard"),it may happen initially, but by doing this, they effectively remove a large liquidity out of this market, which cause  a lot coins go cold wallet, and a "bitcoin in exile " p2p roaming in a "darknet", which perfectly make it a collectable in hidden world. Not only that, their  ban will draw people's attention and make it more desirable just like drugs. And even a mafia profiting cartel could form)

All these effects, combining the fact not all government will ban this thing at the same time, very easily to cause a man-made reverse crash in the long run.

I am not saying this must happen, but I do feel this is a possible scenario and want to here people's arguments on both sides.

Thanks for the input, very appreciated.

If ANY goverment "bans" bitcoin, Give them a giant middle finger and stop using thier Fiat and use Bitcoins FUCKING EVERYWHERE, Walk up to EVERY damn store and ask if they take bitcoins "because this paper is worthless, and the goverment is trying to turn this Valuble, International crypto currency into something Illegal to ensure the value of thier Fiat Paper"

Seriously, I live in Canada, in a military family, And I even asked my Lft.Commander father what should we do if someplace in the world (Like Team America, World Police) declairs Bitcoins illegal.
He simple stated "say screw you, im using bitcoins instead then"
Then there came the whole "You must accept this note as legal tender" issue...
Again he said "just dont take it" "Isnt that techincally illegal" "Ofcourse, But dont you think that Banning a form of money should be illegal?, Nothing should require a "ban" it should just die off naturally like the Zimbabwé rupee(?), because we used to trade beaver pelts and peices of shiny metal for food or raccoon hats, Look where we are today"

Yeah, gov ppl and banks hate paying taxes too, u know.

Government won't ban bitcoin because in the future many evil guys in the government shall happily adopt it for various purposes.

Yes: it would crash it upwards.

Also the very way that the "law" (in Western countries at least) works will make a law "banning Bitcoin" extremely difficult to do (the US tried very hard against Phil Zimmerman and lost).

Look where the DMCA ban on DRM circumvention and BitTorrent technology brought them.

With proper precautions, they couldn't prove I owned a single bitcoin.  Plus they would likely have a date for the law to go into effect -- giving time for people to either crash the market or safely store their btcs.

This won't stop them for jailing you. They will just say that bitcoin is illegal and if they find you having them then you are a terrorist and go to jail. You know, national security

When governments and citizens stop trusting each other's fiat currencies (aka the US dollar) what will be used for international transfers that are too small to justify a chartered plane filled with gold?

Well, any Government claiming to be democratic will have a hard time to outlaw the connection of numeric values in form of in-/and outputs to cryptographic Keys and spread of this linking through a p2p network... or however you would describe what Bitcoin actually is.

Better describe it good or have the risk of outlawing Skype right with it.

I don't see any foundation on that Bitcoin could be outlawed.

Maybe outlaw the exchange and the Use as a currency? I don't know the laws for the US, but the laws for Germany (and therefore probably the EU as they Standardize everything) state that it's legal to accept (nearly) everything as payment as long as you pay tax in Euro.

The German Bank Regulation has stated:


Source

So trade is (yet) legal, and I see now way how they could outlaw it without making basically every exchange that has no € in it illegal. And that would create a Shitstorm.

But what is about the exchanges?

The G. Bank regulation states further


So damn it, exchanges will have to qualify as financial service provider in order to operate.

Guess what, Bitcoin-Central already has that.

I think in the future there will be more regulation on how to acquire bitcoins and how to use them.

And just with cash today:

Some will follow all of them
Most will follow them only where they think they might get caught.
Some will follow nearly none of them.

There might be a crash though, when exchanges being closed amass and account frozen in the transition phase from everyone can make an exchange to all exchanges require to be licensed.

Yes, ofcourse Bitcoin doesn't need any goverment to excists or function.
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".

Yes, your premise is wrong. Firstly, there is no consensus that government acceptance is crucial. Secondly, it isn't (just like government acceptance of other p2p networks isn't crucial).

Mt. Gox would eventually have to close if the US passed sanctions on Bitcoin transactions due to Japan's relationship with the US.

The price would crash at least 10% and likely much further. The price may return to its previous norm if a Russian or other offshore exchange took Mt. Gox's place.

Bitcoin will always be in use with or without an exchange.

Thread watched.
I want to know what everybody thinks about this point.

No government will like Bitcoin anonymous nature. Ever.

It seems almost a consensus that bitcoin' future ultimately depend on government acceptance or totally ban, and totally ban means bitcoin crash. Is it possible that propersition maybe wrong?

Who has some colorful/reasonable argument it maybe the other way?

One scenario: one or two super power government ban the currency, but the network of bitcoin really do not depend anyone but a p2p network. People get on bitcoin on darknet (as long as public-privat key cryptography holds, I don't see how they ban a p2p net work totally rely on secure channel unless they ban all secure channel). Now bitcoin are much much harder to get (a lot of people who has bitcoin give up and their bitcoin sunk in a cold wallet and out of circulation, people can only exchange bitcoin and fiat with trust people, no exchange). and still have residual value (black market for bitcoin and other product and services still exist), the rich people begin to realize if they can manage to get certain asset in bitcoin, it is now theirs and get on board a little by little by web of trust. Rich people like things harder to get and non-perishable, they only accumulate.

Now bitcoin become collectible on black market , price can go extremely high.
Government realize they really have no way to totally ban it and change law to regulate.

Any flaw in this scenario?