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Topic: Grandparents ~ Somebody check my math - something doesn't add up! (Read 378 times)

vip
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1145
You're talking about pedigree collapse, and what doesn't add up is that many of your trillions of great40 grandparents are in fact the same person due to inbreeding, which is unavoidable since everyone is related to everyone else in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedigree_collapse

Quote
Without pedigree collapse, a person's ancestor tree is a binary tree, formed by the person, the parents (2), the grandparents (4), great-grandparents (8.), and so on. However, the number of individuals in such a tree grows exponentially and will eventually become impossibly high. For example, a single individual alive today would, over 30 generations going back to the High Middle Ages, have 230 or roughly a billion ancestors, more than the total world population at the time.

This apparent paradox is explained by shared ancestors, referred to as pedigree collapse. Instead of consisting of all different individuals, a tree may have multiple places occupied by a single individual. This typically happens when the parents of an ancestor are related to each other (sometimes unbeknownst to themselves). For example, the offspring of two first cousins has at most only six great-grandparents instead of the normal eight. This reduction in the number of ancestors is pedigree collapse. It collapses the ancestor tree into a directed acyclic graph.

Are we saying that of the 7.442+ billion people living today along with those who've died during the past 100 years, not a one of them had a quasi-pure ancestor lineage for 30 generations?
vip
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1145
I'm fully capable of conceding my stance once shown where I'm in error. Look forward to reading your arguments. Thanks, guys.>

Here's a table depicting a child born in the year 2000 having parents both 25 years of age (born 1975; first row), with all grandparents also 25 years old [for sake of illustration].

[As with subsequent rows] we can all relate to the second row, all of us having 2 parents and 4 grandparents for a running total of 6 distinct people (excluding ourselves/exampled millennium child), ancestors born in the years depicted in the last column.

I duly hope that the table is self-explanatory from there on out. If not, please inquiry. First, a pic to help illustrate the table:


After 8 generations, all 128 great-grandparents are distinct.
254 distinct people are depicted.

Generations
Dad's Parents
legendary
Activity: 4542
Merit: 3393
Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023
You're talking about pedigree collapse, and what doesn't add up is that many of your trillions of great40 grandparents are in fact the same person due to inbreeding, which is unavoidable since everyone is related to everyone else in the world.
vip
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1145
Facts:

- A generation = 25 years (using the highest number in lieu of 20, the number of years for earlier generations)
- 240 = 1,099,511,627,776
- 40 X 25 = 1,000

Given the above, a thousand years ago I had over a trillion grandparents. Correct?

Question: What was the population of the Earth a thousand years ago? Was it over a trillion?


This is an interesting dilema and thought process.  But I doubt the populations ever grew at that rate.

Think about tribes. They would probably roughly grow to about double or triple in size before probably being annialated by another tribe (At least thats what I beleive happened here in Africa.. )

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20061106182557AAmbeKh

Quote
Scientifically it is considered between 22 and 25 years.

I chose 25 years as a working figure to illustrate my stance, but will gladly recalculate using any number of years between generation up to 50 years on average, albeit hell, even 70 years between gens gleaned from the KJV would suffice.
member
Activity: 101
Merit: 10
Facts:

- A generation = 25 years (using the highest number in lieu of 20, the number of years for earlier generations)
- 240 = 1,099,511,627,776
- 40 X 25 = 1,000

Given the above, a thousand years ago I had over a trillion grandparents. Correct?

Question: What was the population of the Earth a thousand years ago? Was it over a trillion?


This is an interesting dilema and thought process.  But I doubt the populations ever grew at that rate.

Think about tribes. They would probably roughly grow to about double or triple in size before probably being annialated by another tribe (At least thats what I beleive happened here in Africa.. )
vip
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1145
Obviously we share common ancestors, not to mention one male can get any number of females pregnant. You don't need 20 people to generate 10 people, actually just a couple suffices.

Okay, let's do the reverse.

Pretend that a thousand years ago there were only two people on the planet. They had two children, a boy and girl. Forty generations later, that equates to a trillion offsprings, of which there has never been a trillion people total on this planet.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
Obviously we share common ancestors, not to mention one male can get any number of females pregnant. You don't need 20 people to generate 10 people, actually just a couple suffices.
hero member
Activity: 1063
Merit: 502
RIP: S5, A faithful device long time
Reality check: People die. Every single second almost 2 people die

Have you ever listen earth voice on space?
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Coinhoarder
It was on the population thing Tongue Wiki say we was between 255 and 400mill people 1000 years ago.
vip
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1145
Reality check: People die. Every single second almost 2 people die

People dying regardless the rate has nothing to do with what was presented. For you or I to be here today, we each would had to have a trillion grandparents 40 generations ago. That fact is undisputed [unless my math and assessment is in error, hence seeking input from those learned].
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Coinhoarder
Reality check: People die. Every single second almost 2 people die
vip
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1145
Facts:

- A generation = 25 years (using the highest number in lieu of 20, the number of years for earlier generations)
- 240 = 1,099,511,627,776
- 40 X 25 = 1,000

Given the above, a thousand years ago I had over a trillion grandparents. Correct?

Question: What was the population of the Earth a thousand years ago? Was it over a trillion?
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