Greed = Bearish, Long-Term-Investment = Bullish [Segwit2x cancellation]

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: d5000 on November 12, 2017, 05:28:32 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on November 12, 2017, 02:21:42 AM

Historically speaking the group that has been causing the rally is obviously much bigger. Bitcoin has been going up since 2009, and at the price it is now, it is still very good considering where it started.

I agree that the price is still high, even $5000 would be a good price.

But how to know why these people that have caused the rally invested?

Since about $3000, price upswings have been related to hopes to get "free coins". It may be a simple correlation and not a causality, but I think a big group has invested in Bitcoin in those last 3-4 months with Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold and Segwit2x "free coins" in mind.

It could be related to that but the main trend is telling us something else. Whatever it is, I do not know. Maybe it is because of Bitcoin's nature as deflationary currency combined with the increased demand for it.

Maybe there are bigger forces at work here that has not yet revealed itself. Drugs, money laundering and other illegal activities are still a big part of Bitcoin whether we like it or not.

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I for myself am bullish long-term, but in the mid-term I believe there could be a bear market (e.g. 2018-19). $6000, an important mark, have been broken now (that would indicate at least a short-term bear market), although it was at a moment with heavy speculation moves between BTC and BCH. So the signs are not really clear.

Then that is good news for you. You will have plenty of time to buy more cheap coins.

pitham1

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Instead of having a target for BTC, I think it is safe to have a price target for BTC + BCH. I think the combined value still has a chance of hitting $10K. You don't need to invest in any other altcoin when you have the chance to invest in Bitcoin Cash.

d5000

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on November 12, 2017, 02:21:42 AM

Historically speaking the group that has been causing the rally is obviously much bigger. Bitcoin has been going up since 2009, and at the price it is now, it is still very good considering where it started.

I agree that the price is still high, even $5000 would be a good price.

But how to know why these people that have caused the rally invested?

Since about $3000, price upswings have been related to hopes to get "free coins". It may be a simple correlation and not a causality, but I think a big group has invested in Bitcoin in those last 3-4 months with Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold and Segwit2x "free coins" in mind.

I for myself am bullish long-term, but in the mid-term I believe there could be a bear market (e.g. 2018-19). $6000, an important mark, have been broken now (that would indicate at least a short-term bear market), although it was at a moment with heavy speculation moves between BTC and BCH. So the signs are not really clear.

Taking everything into account, I think the question "will we see 7800+ prices in 2017 again" is still a 50/50 bet.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

Quote from: xypos on November 12, 2017, 04:12:15 AM

Personally, i see this current pullback is just another one of those corrections that were bound to happen, regardless of forks or BCH. It's just a part of the process of initiating the next pump and so on, we've seen this with $2500 back to $1800 and up to $4000, $4000 back to $2900 up to $5000+ and so on.

we can't call this a correction anymore. I agree with the follow up about this being the same exact process which will lead to the next rally. we have seen it enough times now, it is clearly visible on the charts too if you zoom out to about a year at a time.
but all the previous speculations, at least what I said above was said for a normal situation without an ongoing attack against bitcoin. these attacks always change everything, intensify the drops and panics. but make up for good opportunities for lots of profit, BCH is not the only thing getting pumped these days, you can see how many altcoins are taking advantage and getting pumped.

fill your bags with enough bitcoin while you can ladies and gentlemen...

xypos

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Quote from: d5000 on November 10, 2017, 02:48:40 AM

The cancellation of Segwit2x may be a crossroads for Bitcoin's price: It could fall or continue to rise.

Why could it fall now? Because people may have invested in Bitcoin recently because they greedily wanted to grab "free money" from the Segwit2x fork. The fork won't happen (or would be very weak) and thus these people would sell. This would mean that Bitcoin is heading into a bear market.

Why could it rise now? Because people that haven't invested in Bitcoin in the past months fearing the uncertainty around the Segwit2x fork (e.g. because of the danger of a "stuck" blockchain), now feel safe to do an long-term investment. They buy. This would mean that the bull market will continue - to da moon Wink

.

I'm still undecided which of the two theories is true. What do you think? Or are both of my reasonings wrong?

Personally, i see this current pullback is just another one of those corrections that were bound to happen, regardless of forks or BCH. It's just a part of the process of initiating the next pump and so on, we've seen this with $2500 back to $1800 and up to $4000, $4000 back to $2900 up to $5000+ and so on.

The price isn't a worry as long as you're not trading on leverage, and if you're in bitcoin for the long term anyways.

Keep holding and if you have the chance, buy some at the dip.

Wind_FURY

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Historically speaking the group that has been causing the rally is obviously much bigger. Bitcoin has been going up since 2009, and at the price it is now, it is still very good considering where it started.

There is only one way to invest in Bitcoin. "Buy the dip", then hold and guard them with your life.

d5000

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Quote from: pooya87 on November 10, 2017, 11:05:00 PM

the hard part of speculation at this point is that both of these options are 100% true.
there are 2 groups, those who bought bitcoin to profit from possible SegWit2x additional coin, and there are those who never bought because of the possible SegWit2x split and possible hard drop.

You are totally correct, and that's why I started this thread. Which one of the two groups is bigger? That's the question.

I can disclose now that I voted for the second option (long-term investors outweigh short-term greed). It seems wrong for now because of the little correction Wink

I also think that the first group is dominating the action in the last hours/days.

But I base my vote on the assumption that the cancellation is generally bullish for Bitcoin because institutional investors and other "big money" could be among the second group - they could be buying Bitcoin or at least consider buying it because of less uncertainty. A fork with much drama would have been a "no-go" for these people.

It's possible however, that these big players know that Bitcoin has overheated in the past months, and thus they're waiting until the price is lower a bit. That's why I think it's perfectly possible that we could see e.g. a $3000 retest again.

But the worst case scenarios (a completely unusable "original" Bitcoin blockchain and in consequence a PoW hardfork, with big usability hassles for non-techies) are history now, I think. That means that I dont't think we'll retest $1200 or go even into 2014-15 territory again Grin

.

pooya87

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the hard part of speculation at this point is that both of these options are 100% true.
there are 2 groups, those who bought bitcoin to profit from possible SegWit2x additional coin, and there are those who never bought because of the possible SegWit2x split and possible hard drop.

the first group is obviously selling, this is mostly traders i suppose who saw the opportunity to both buy bitcoin on the rise and get some free tokens in the future. they cause drop
the second group is going to start buying bitcoin because they have missed enough chances to buy (mostly found out about bitcoin at around $5000 and saw the $7888 but never invested). they were afraid of the fork and possibility of a bubble and didn't invest. now they are thinking about investing and will probably wait for the drop to end first. they cause the rally

they both exist but not in the market at the same time which is why they are not cancelling each other out. the first group is most active now that is right after the news about fork came out. and the second will be most active when the first group were nearly out of the market and bottom was reached.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: d5000 on November 10, 2017, 02:48:40 AM

The cancellation of Segwit2x may be a crossroads for Bitcoin's price: It could fall or continue to rise.

Why could it fall now? Because people may have invested in Bitcoin recently because they greedily wanted to grab "free money" from the Segwit2x fork. The fork won't happen (or would be very weak) and thus these people would sell. This would mean that Bitcoin is heading into a bear market.

Bitcoin will not be heading to a bear market. Have you forgotten that Bitcoin started going up since 2015? Segwit2x had nothing to do with the long term price climb.

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Why could it rise now? Because people that haven't invested in Bitcoin in the past months fearing the uncertainty around the Segwit2x fork (e.g. because of the danger of a "stuck" blockchain), now feel safe to do an long-term investment. They buy. This would mean that the bull market will continue - to da moon Wink

.

A correction has to happen before it could start rising again.

Quote

I'm still undecided which of the two theories is true. What do you think? Or are both of my reasonings wrong?

I believe you are wrong in saying Bitcoin will enter a bear market.

mostkey

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although segwit2x is canceled, this does not have any impact on bitcoin prices, the bibcoin market is still high and this is very clearly visible, although segwit2x fails to keep hold bitcoin. in the hope that prices will continue to rise and will give long-term gains, and now bitcoincash is being pumped without a decrease in bitcoin prices

iamTom123

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Quote from: d5000 on November 10, 2017, 02:48:40 AM

The cancellation of Segwit2x may be a crossroads for Bitcoin's price: It could fall or continue to rise. Why could it fall now? Because people may have invested in Bitcoin recently because they greedily wanted to grab "free money" from the Segwit2x fork. The fork won't happen (or would be very weak) and thus these people would sell. This would mean that Bitcoin is heading into a bear market. Why could it rise now? Because people that haven't invested in Bitcoin in the past months fearing the uncertainty around the Segwit2x fork (e.g. because of the danger of a "stuck" blockchain), now feel safe to do an long-term investment. They buy. This would mean that the bull market will continue - to da moon Wink

. I'm still undecided which of the two theories is true. What do you think? Or are both of my reasoning wrong?

Both can be happening but of course not at the same time. Right now, the price just dropped considerably due to the reasons you just cited but it can be back soon as is customary with Bitcoin because there are many buyers and traders who are just waiting for an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at its dip. And this is not surprising with the kind of market dynamism exhibited by Bitcoin in its years of existence. In other words, we can be experiencing a sort of a roller-coaster ride for this period leading up to the end of this year.

BitHodler

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Only idiots chase non existent free money. The cancellation is a fantastic happening for everyone that actually cares about Bitcoin and the community.

It's mind boggling how people were already selling their 2X coins for Bitcoin in their mind. But turns out, there is no "free" money to earn for these people, and thus they have to liquidate their holdings.

If the price happens to go down further and these people keep waiting with selling, and for that reason likely sell at even lower levels at a later point, then the "free" money that they were chasing resulted in them losing money.

d5000

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Quote from: DaMut on November 10, 2017, 03:25:20 AM

i think it should be the first one and then the second one,

That "light version" of my first option (a correction instead of a full-fledged bear market) could be true. If the current downward movement doesn't go too low (I've heard of ~$6000 being a critical level) then I see good chances for another bullish move. However, I think it's clear that the current price is a bit inflated, and thus once the sentiment generally turns bearish, I expect a journey to much lower values - e.g. a re-test of $3000.

Quote from: Pursuer on November 10, 2017, 04:01:09 AM

so I'd say the number of people who invested in bitcoin because they wanted "free money" was not that many. and that is why I chose the second option,

Unfortunately, I definitively "have" seen lots of people investing to grab free money. The question is if they outweigh the long-term investors.

Quote from: fabiorem on November 10, 2017, 06:51:10 AM

The interesting part about it is that nobody would gain "free money" from Segwit2x, as it wont have any replay protection. They would lose all their BTC to the exchanges after dumping their B2X.

I think here you're wrong - this method should work even if a fork decides to not implement any replay protection at all (in short: after the fork, send coins to one of the two wallets and then - once you confirm the other wallet hasn't been funded by a replay attack - withdraw all the coins to another address; on the other chain the transaction would be invalid because there are not enough funds).

Lieldoryn

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Probably the price will fall but it's not for the reason that users sell their coins. This is because whales began again its speculation. Additionally, manufacturers of equipment for mining now take active BCH. This will cause rise of prices on the currency. Accordingly, there would be a decrease of BTC. Wait. The price of BTC will go up.

fabiorem

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The interesting part about it is that nobody would gain "free money" from Segwit2x, as it wont have any replay protection. They would lose all their BTC to the exchanges after dumping their B2X.

So, these people who jumped in the train for it are fools. The price would fall more than it is falling now in case it got to it, the ecosystem would be damaged.

Its good to see that the B2X guys had come to their senses. Block increases should not be done all of a sudden, this is a slow development and it need to follow hdd technology, or we will not be able to run nodes.

There's still BTG which will be released in 12th, but this one is around $100 in futures markets, so not interesting for these greed investors.

The price will fall. But in the long term it will still go up, and this is what I aim to.

Tell them the hodlers will remember.

hase0278

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Quote from: d5000 on November 10, 2017, 02:48:40 AM

The cancellation of Segwit2x may be a crossroads for Bitcoin's price: It could fall or continue to rise.

Why could it fall now? Because people may have invested in Bitcoin recently because they greedily wanted to grab "free money" from the Segwit2x fork. The fork won't happen (or would be very weak) and thus these people would sell. This would mean that Bitcoin is heading into a bear market.

Why could it rise now? Because people that haven't invested in Bitcoin in the past months fearing the uncertainty around the Segwit2x fork (e.g. because of the danger of a "stuck" blockchain), now feel safe to do an long-term investment. They buy. This would mean that the bull market will continue - to da moon Wink

.

I'm still undecided which of the two theories is true. What do you think? Or are both of my reasonings wrong?

I believe both of your reasonings are right. In fact, the former is happening slowly right now. Bitcoin has been slowly going sideways in the past few days, it is just logical to think now that those who bought bitcoin for the sake of free money on segwit2x are unloading. Still, the drop wont be that big, they will probably not unload a lot of bitcoin. After this the latter might happen because uncertainty will be lessened right after they finished unloading some on their stash.

Denker

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Quote from: d5000 on November 10, 2017, 02:48:40 AM

The cancellation of Segwit2x may be a crossroads for Bitcoin's price: It could fall or continue to rise.

Why could it fall now? Because people may have invested in Bitcoin recently because they greedily wanted to grab "free money" from the Segwit2x fork. The fork won't happen (or would be very weak) and thus these people would sell. This would mean that Bitcoin is heading into a bear market.

Why could it rise now? Because people that haven't invested in Bitcoin in the past months fearing the uncertainty around the Segwit2x fork (e.g. because of the danger of a "stuck" blockchain), now feel safe to do an long-term investment. They buy. This would mean that the bull market will continue - to da moon Wink

.

I'm still undecided which of the two theories is true. What do you think? Or are both of my reasonings wrong?

I don't think Bitcoin will go in a bear market because the ones who bought to get free coins are selling. I highly doubt this group of people was that huge.
And if you look at the price we are still above $7k and are sideways since 8 days now.
We may see a correction, but we won't go into a bear market because a fork got cancelled. This makes no sense to me.

And yes there is/was a lot of money on the sidelines and waiting to see how all this drama plays out. I wouldn't be surprised if we continue moving up.
However I would prefer a short term correction before doing so.

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

i made my speculation a couple of days ago and was sure when the email came out making it official that SegWit2x is not going to happen as it was planned. and i still have not changed my speculation.

i say since hard fork like that (with a huge miners support but no core team support and little community support) had risks which some may consider even big risks of split, it meant so many stayed away from investing in bitcoin. specially those new investors that came in due to CME news.

i say we are in it for a nice rally soon. it is is not happening yet probably because there are still contradictory news around and also there is sell pressure from those who are selling because they know they won't get any free fork coins.

squatter

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STOP SNITCHIN'

Quote from: Opquar on November 10, 2017, 03:52:34 AM

I don't think would-be investors were afraid of Segwit2x at all. Heck, most holders around here wanted it for the free coins, the future consequences be damned. There are not too many people who are actually knowledgeable about bitcoin, and only those knowledgeable people really feared Segwit2x. I could be wrong though, I would have predicted the price to drop after the fork cancellation, and it so far has not.

That's really the key here: there is a massive knowledge gap in Bitcoin. And honestly, it's getting worse all the time. It never really dawned on me until recently that this is how the "S-curve" works. As time goes by, more and more of the user base understands less and less about Bitcoin (because at any given time, most users are relatively new).

The whole experience with BIP148, Bcash, Bgold and Segwit2x really show that most people simply don't understand how Bitcoin works at all. Consensus is an opt-in ruleset that you can join or leave; it is not something agreed upon in a room nor by the community at large. Most people do not understand the gravity of a real permanent network split, and how that damages network (and brand) value. Further, most people don't seem to understand how to distinguish bitcoins from altcoins; they just go with the crowd. This doesn't bode well for the future, when the attacks orchestrated by, say, governments will be much worse than these amateur attacks by Bitmain or Blockchain.info.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

most people, specially the newcomers didn't even know about what a fork means, or what a new chain/new coin means and how you get two coins with your bitcoins! and those who knew about these things, also knew that there are risks involved in this and the "free money" may not be that free after all.
so I'd say the number of people who invested in bitcoin because they wanted "free money" was not that many. and that is why I chose the second option, the uncertainty of the fork is also lifter now, despite the bullshit flying around about Bitcoin2x fork still going on.

makila

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so many people got in at 7k so i think its gonna flatline for a bit arround the price and become the new norm.
no one wants to sell at a loss right?

Opquar

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I don't think would-be investors were afraid of Segwit2x at all. Heck, most holders around here wanted it for the free coins, the future consequences be damned. There are not too many people who are actually knowledgeable about bitcoin, and only those knowledgeable people really feared Segwit2x. I could be wrong though, I would have predicted the price to drop after the fork cancellation, and it so far has not.

DaMut

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i think it should be the first one and then the second one,
but before we see another downward movement we will get a little pump/bear trap.
why ? because many people thought that way and always do the opposite,that is the rule for cryptocurrency.
because of the fork many people bought it in order to get a free coin when the split happen,
but in reality they made another decision,they suspended it.
if that thing lead a huge sell we should see it directly after we heard that news,but we did not right ?
that mean we're trying to make another move before the correction.
some people though it's a good news because we will not see the fork soona and the price should be pumping hard because of it,but bear it in your mind that Bitcoin price is at its peak right now.
and we never see a correction before,

d5000

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The cancellation of Segwit2x may be a crossroads for Bitcoin's price: It could fall or continue to rise.

Why could it fall now? Because people may have invested in Bitcoin recently because they greedily wanted to grab "free money" from the Segwit2x fork. The fork won't happen (or would be very weak) and thus these people would sell. This would mean that Bitcoin is heading into a bear market.

Why could it rise now? Because people that haven't invested in Bitcoin in the past months fearing the uncertainty around the Segwit2x fork (e.g. because of the danger of a "stuck" blockchain), now feel safe to do an long-term investment. They buy. This would mean that the bull market will continue - to da moon Wink

.

I'm still undecided which of the two theories is true. What do you think? Or are both of my reasonings wrong?

Topic: Greed = Bearish, Long-Term-Investment = Bullish [Segwit2x cancellation] (Read 646 times)