Topic: [Guide] Using Google Trend to choose right time to accumulate for your portfolio (Read 236 times)

This is hilarious haha!   Reminds me of how the American Indians used to locate the source of a sound.

If you want to measue what they call "trend" which most of us call "hype" then for me honestly its the wrong way to go. If you just followed something because of how loud its noise is making in the media then the sad thing about it is it will mostly be dependent on news or its hype. As a hodler of BTC and other crypto I'll be more interested in studying charts rather than Google trends as its more accurate and its inaccuracy will be bigger as the day less and less people will search the word "Bitcoin" in Google which what happened to Gold in my given example.

Lots of biases but it is still useful in general, in terms of trend indicator.
That's what I meant, acting reversely with the trend in Google Trend.
Combination between price chart, Google trend, and contexts. Perfect, right?

It really can be a manipulated data, but I don't think it's worthless.

When we hit 20k, bitcoin was in media, Google trends, etc... It was clearly a bad time to buy. Now even According to Google trend it looks like a good time.

It's good use combine various tools and data when making a buy/sell decision

It is why I said it is a supplementary strategy/ indicator.
I have a image that I took from a reasearch for you on dengue fever and google trend search. (I will give you link to the article and image later)

Sure. And, I forgot to mention delayed or lagged effects, that should be taken into consideration concurrently with context.
Even Nicholas Darvas does not have need to observe price movements everyday. What he need to find out trend is delayed/ lagged effects, almost the same as what we can have freely with Google Trend.
Of course, potential bias factors should be taken into consideration.

Google trends can be used as an indicator on multiple fields, although some studies have met poor results for its use as a predictor.For example s Google Trends a reliable tool for digital epidemiology? Insights from different clinical settings) concludes that:

"Taken together, the results of our study confirm that Google Trends has very modest reliability for delineating the true population epidemiology of relatively common diseases with poor media coverage or rarer diseases with large audience. Overall, Google Trends seems to be more influenced by media clamor than by the true epidemiological impact of disease, at least in the diseases examined here. Therefore, the real scientific usefulness of the so called "digital epidemiology" remains questionable, at least when using Google Trends."

We could of course find examples in favour and against, and although it certainly does have some appeal, one needs to be extra careful when interpreting the results:

On the one hand we need to understand how those charts are created. The charts set as the 100 threshold score the value where the search pattern is highest in relation to the searches performed in that same timeframe and geographical scope studied. All other readings on the chart are then relativizes to that maximum.

Say for example on day X the Bitcoin search term was sough 100K times out of 10M search searches, then the ratio for that day would be of 1%. If that was the maximum ratio for each date in the chart’s window, then that would be peak of the chart, and be set as base 100. Now if on another day there were 120K searches for Bitcoin, but the total amount of searches was of 16M, then the ratio would be of 0,75%, which is lower than the peak. Is it really lower? Well it is in relative search terms, but not in absolute search terms, where it is up by 20% that will not show on those relative charts.

Another factor to consider is sentiment: the charts ponder the number of searches for the term, but do not give it a context. I.e. Bitcoin could be suffering a severe crash and the number of searched on the engine related to Bitcoin will rise greatly, but the rise in the chart is counterproductive if interpreted alone without a context.
 

Depend on the other search engine, Google still the best for me. I can found almost everything I search, and if I use the other search engine, I cannot get what I want.
Besides that, it depends on how we can use the operators on Google itself, and if we can use the right operators, I am sure that we can found what we need.

There are few bots which do sentimental analysis and sets the bet accordingly. I have read that the bot takes the tweets and based on the tweets and there response the sentiment is calculated. Have no much experience on this bot but have heard that it works good.

This strategy really is not going to work unfortunately. There have been a good amount of times whereas the search volume of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are in the uprise whereas the prices are still going lower.

That's what I implied
You know what.
Acting in the reverse direction / trend that is shown in Google trend.
I don't recommend to buy when Google trend shows figures up, and I don't recommend to sell when Google trend shows down.

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Only one thing, Google Trend gives us a little bit delay figures. So, using it, we can not take profits at peaks, and buy at bottoms.
But, honestly who can sell at peaks and buy at bottoms. What we can do is trying to sell at shoulders, and buy at knees, right?
And, this tip is only meaningful for top projects, good ones, not shitty projects.

here is what your strategy looks like, you keep your ears to the ground and when you hear loud music you assume it is a party and then start moving towards that sound in an attempt to join the party. well by that time you either face some dude rocking his stereo or find the party is already over, and the cake is gone

that is what Google trends show you. when bitcoin has already gone up for a while the media starts hyping it up more, then the newbies start searching more about it which is when it starts showing a spike on the trends. and when the hype slows down the trend goes back to normal too which doesn't show anything about bottoming out or anything it just shows there is no longer enough searches.

and it gets worse with altcoins! for instance if they decide to spam-advertise their shitcoin, there will be a bigger "trend" on google but the price is not going up! and as their spam ends the trend also ends too but the pump and dump of that shitcoin can still continue.

Google Trend is a worthless tool to base on your buy and sell decisions, Google trends only shows you the search results volume happening in Google's search engine and there is nothing more to that. People use Google's search engine all the time and the bad thing about it is if we use GTrends as basis for our buy and sell decisions they can always manipulate the search volume just by searching the word "Bitcoin" in it.

Want a good example on why Google Trends doesn't work? Here is Gold's Google Trend chart you will see that it is almost a flat line while the prices of gold have been soaring lately. It only show that Gold is searched as much as Bitcoin even though its moving upwards.

Welcome to my guide, which gives you supplementary strategy to choose which assets deserved to invest, and when to accumulate cheap assets for your portfolio in order to increase your profit-margins and reduce risks of losses.

This one is totally free, and everyone have rights to access its features.
What I imply is Google Trend.
Now, let's get started.

Notes:
I don't have connections to my imgur account ATM, so I simply give you links to results for Google Trend Search for top digital assets, in descending orders on Coinmarketcap.com's ranking system.

Timespan is last one year.
1) Bitcoin:
https://trends.google.com.vn/trends/explore?q=bitcoin
Downwards trend, but it likely hit bottom, and stood stably recent months.
2) Ethereum:
https://trends.google.com.vn/trends/explore?q=ethereum
Nearly bottomed out yet.
3) Ripple:
https://trends.google.com.vn/trends/explore?q=ripple
Bottomed out, too, but there is a spike in September last year.
You can find out what happened with Ripple this month.
4) Litecoin:
https://trends.google.com.vn/trends/explore?q=litecoin
Bottomed out last four months, and recently rose.

I stopped giving examples here, but you can freely search anything else for your own interests.

It is easily to see the fact that Google Trend results shows figure of those assets decreased simultaneously with its price drops.

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The key point is when both the chart of price and Google Trend bottoms out, it is time to determinantly accumulate more without hesitation and fears of losses.