Topic: Hal Finney: each coin a value of about $10 million prophecy (Read 351 times)

Regret is a difficult word here because on the one hand you are of course right that if you sold for a good reason and got some benefit out of it, it should all be good. But on the other hand I think some least amount of regret is unavoidable given that Bitcoin really has been a moonshot once in a lifetime investment that may never occur twice to most of us. I think this gives reason for some people to say to themselves that they do deeply wish they had not sold and instead endured some shortages for a bit longer. I know someone who owned 30,000 Bitcoin and sold them for $1 a piece to then buy a BMW I can tell you that he felt some regret when Bitcoin went 3 figures, then 4 figures and 5 figures eventually.

The problem is that I think too many people pull the hardcore trigger instead of selling only a fraction of their bag. Or they deviate from any upfront considered strategy, for reasons they consider to be right in that moment.

It's different from those people who check lottery numbers even when they didn't play in order to see whether they would have won if they played. That I think is a dumb move and I myself wouldn't do it, but if I did and I would have won, I would not feel regret. But when someone who was among the first miners and was passionate about the technology sells 30,000 Bitcoin to buy a BMW, I think there is a lot of reason to regret it later.

But when we talk about people who can't really afford tens of Bitcoin, but instead put some of their savings into Bitcoin and then sell at a maybe 500% profit, there is really no reason to regret it because from a rational and also risk aversion point of view, selling something at 500% profit would be the right thing to do in 99.9% of the time. Bitcoin just proved to be very different from what most of us have ever seen and probably will ever see.

I suppose the only ones that could do that are the kind of people that not only have great mental strength but that also lead lives that allows them to get away with this, since a person that has a lot of responsibilities over their shoulders and debts to pay cannot really afford to do this even if they wanted, so only a very small minority of the people holding bitcoin today will be able to hold their coins until Hal’s prediction becomes true, or at least until we get close to it, however as long as you could obtain some benefits out of your bitcoin investment and you sold your coins for a good reason then there is no need to regret selling those coins at such low prices.

That is what I have often been saying, it is those who already have money who will most likely make a lot of money from Bitcoin as well as they don't need to sell during bull runs. I really applaud people who knew it would be smart for them to sell at maybe 1k USD because they bought at 100 USD, but then held through all the roller coasters until it hit new heights like 30k, 40k and then the ATH with over 60k. But really, who does that? If someone isn't rich but firmly believes in the technology and still holds despite Bitcoin having its crashes, that's some mental strength there!

It’s fun to think about all the things you would do if Bitcoin suddenly jumped to $10,000,000 overnight. However, that’s not how it happens. It will be a slow grind upward for years and very few if anyone holding now would still be sitting on BTC at the end of the ride. Most people here have already sold off mass amounts of BTC at significantly lower prices.

And once again, this will not happen. This was talked about during the early days as well, and people said that it won't happen, and the bigger the price got the more people started to believe it but it still is not anywhere near that level and I am assuming that it will stay away from it as well.

We are talking about a 400x increase in the price, I am not saying that it is "impossible" but it is quite difficult and in fact it's unlikely for sure. That type of increases could happen with a small cap thing, but we already have a huge marketcap with bitcoin, just look at how much the marketcap would be if we went 400x higher. I believe that the highest we could be anytime soon would be 500k, and by soon I mean like next 10 years, that's all I can see it happening, rest are just guesses and FOMO and nothing more. He was a good dude, I am sure that he did all he could, and may he rest in peace, but that doesn't mean that he was right, it is probably wrong.

Prediction would always be that a prediction and there's no guarantee that it would happen but basing up on how he had predicted about the potential of Bitcoin then it did really shoot up its price and for sure that even himself didnt really anticipate that it would really be that so fast after a decades time but speaking about $10M then it would really be that on unrealistic side of things. Let alone those $1M or $500k predictions which
some people had already been saying. We are all speculators on this space on which it wont really be that so bad on having those kind of approach in speaking about numbers be spoken out. Whether it would happen or not in the future then there's no way that we could really be able to tell because the main factor which make things possible will be depending on the demand and recognition itself.

If you are really that coming after for the tech and not on investment then for sure you would really be that accumulating coins as much as you could and wont really be that minding much about on the money
that you could make or profit but rather you are accumulating just to show your support into those revolutionary tech that has been created.

You know what? Hal's story taught me something and that's to value your time here on Earth, spend it with your loved ones. If he could only see what Bitcoin has become, maybe live until 2030, but no.
So, maybe bitcoin will reach this level of adoption in 2030, maybe in 2035, but what if you are no longer here to witness it? What if you are, but die a year or 2 later, without really being able to experience the wealth you've gained over the years?

It's important to first live your life, have fun, spend time with family. Don't get carried away by dreams of wealth that bitcoin can provide. This should always come second, third, or even fourth.
Would you rather have billions in bitcoin and die a few months later, or have no bitcoin at all but live for another 10 years?

I know that bitcoin will one day be worth a lot of money. Don't know if it's going to be 1 million or 10 million, but I don't focus on it and live my life as I used to 10 years ago when I had no bitcoin at all.

The math to calculate this is not that straightforward. Or it is not straightforward because nobody knows anyway, but if we assume that Bitcoin will reflect total household wealth one day, you would also have to adjust for the time factor and that wealth in the meantime is most likely to increase as well? Good question actually, I wonder what a recession could do to global total household wealth.

"Global wealth is expected to rise by 38% over the next five years, reaching USD 629 trillion by 2027"

This is what I mean. It is a report from the UBS and without conducting an in depth validity check here, the numbers are significantly increasing in a short amount of time. This would put Bitcoin at $30 million already if we consider the upper bound provided by UBS here and I guess long-term further increases would be expected.

Alot could be deduced from a visionary cypherpunk like Hal, no wonder some already believed he was Satoshi, he already had the foresights that this is what bitcoin is going to turn to in the near future, he also understand that if the digital currency is widely accepted, it's worth will be something worth more than millions, now this is what we are seing the possibility of achieving better as bitcoin continue to increase in value over time.

His imaginations are wide and gradually becoming true or is true already. One thing is Hal was there when it all started and he saw the efforts Satoshi and co put in to create one thing (cryptocurrency) called Bitcoin.that means he knew that all the resources that was put in can never go in vain.
But it's my concern about this interior underdeveloped countries that still lacks technology. how will there know about Bitcoin and it's future what if in the next few decades everything depends on Bitcoin will such low tech countries still survive? That is exactly what makes me thing Bitcoin getting to world acceptance is a mission impossible or can not be possible it's just imagination.
Cause the prediction of Bitcoin up to $10 million per coin is really huge how many people will be able to afford then? Infact let me stop worrying about the future it will speak for it self when the time comes.

People get carried away with big numbers, although Hal wrote in what context he thinks such a price could be realized. But I also agree that it is completely unrealistic to expect that all the world's values can ever be transferred to Bitcoin, because then the whole world would become decentralized, which really seems like one big impossible mission.

I think that Bitcoin will always be just an alternative to the existing system, and that most people will never accept it as an idea conceived by Satoshi. From my perspective, the average resident of the UK or US is still very attached to their national currency, let alone countries like China or India that have very negative attitudes towards anything they cannot control.

However, if in xx years there will still be $, perhaps 1 BTC will really be worth a million or more, but the purchasing power of those millions may be ten or more times less than today.

Regarding the comparison between Hal and Saylor, it should be taken into account that Hal wrote this at the very beginning of Bitcoin's existence, and Saylor says it today when some things are still much clearer than then.

About Bitcoin I started to have different ideas which I didn't have couple of years ago to be honest. But in my opinion Bitcoin price range can definitely hit more than a million dollar considering how much money fed is printing right now. Its pretty much ridiculous. We really needed much better currency like Bitcoin to store our wealth against inflation so that's why Bitcoin pioneers were very visionary in my opinion. Their goal is achieved. We see what's behind the curtain.

It’s a little strange to hear in a technical (or pseudo-technical, since most sections and discussions on this forum are far from technical in content) about visionary. I think that Hal simply believed very strongly in btcoin and the future of it, because he was very passionate about this technology.

We will most likely see $100.000, this is a completely feasible figure, but there are some doubts about $10 mln. I'm not sure if bitcoin will ever cost so much that we will see this time. It will take a lot of time (and cycles) to achieve this.

Overly optimistic expectations. This probably won't happen in the next 3 cycles (~12 years). But not because I assume so.

It is possible exactly as much as it is impossible.

This is only not enough for such an appreciation of bitcoin. Without new (mass) users and demand for bitcoin, this means little.

Hal was truly an imaginary guy but his imagination was with logic and that's something we all must admire. We lost a really previous asset of the community, the guy was truly a brilliant person and he was really close to Satoshi. I don't know if Satoshi is live or not but if he's alive then he might miss Hal Finney more than anyone else. I believe that Bitcoin has potential to reach $10 million per coin just according to Hal's prediction but to see that happening we'll have to wait for at least 2 more decades.

Its impossible to know the absolute future outcome but his reasoning based off good value odds was something I can recognize as valid.   You can always be wrong in some way but dont ignore a reasonable risk to value payoff scenario.
   In Jan 2009 almost everyone had their attention on the financial crisis at that time, this was definitely a sector below the radar for all sorts of reasons.

  Even with Dollar now though very dominant it does not describe all money.  Its only that the global reserve system references dollar that its so important.  After WW2 over half of world trade was USA based apparently, hence justifying a strong bias then but its not close to true now we have seen alot of development despite setbacks sometimes large the world is far more diverse now.  If anything its a fault that dollar is this biased when the world trade is not, its probably misaligned and causing problems.  I dont especially look to any replacement to copy that bias and mistake, so BTC being all money is not the scenario I look out for; theres lots of growth left anyway.

The prophecy is based on Bitcoin eventually becoming a worldwide currency, and therefore representing all global wealth, which at present has little prospect of being fulfilled. The predictions made by Saylor are not so different, but in this case considering the Bitcoin as the world's store of value that will defund all other stores of value to attract all the wealth to it, which also seems to me to be exaggerated.

Neither the Bitcoin is going to be a predominant world currency nor is it going to demonetize all assets (stock market, gold, real estate, art, etc) to absorb all that money by itself.

At some point the price will reach $10M, just as it did before at $1M, but by that time the purchasing power of $10 (and $1M) will be much less than it is now due to inflation.

I'm getting that bull run feeling too, especially when I see posts like these – they really amp things up. I mean, who am I to call it unrealistic? Let's roll with that prophecy, mate – $10 million for 1 BTC, that's bonkers! I might just start beefing up my investment, which has been chillin' for a while. And yeah, maybe I'll ease off on the gambling for a bit to avoid constantly chipping away at it.

I aslo think so about the actual 10 million hype because there is a very rare and minimal chance that Bitcoin can actually shoot up to that certain amount in the given year space and I think even the 1 million you are speculating in that given time frame is still something to look on because 1 million dollars isn't 100k or even 500k. But that's the beauty of the whole Bitcoin market as no one is ever sure, it's just a matter of mere speculation and guess.

The data differed greatly from 2009, and I believe that the current financial situation is completely different from what was in the past. It was the year that preceded the global financial crisis, and many do not know the direction of the future or expect that this crisis will end quickly.
The price of 10 million is extremely exaggerated and unrealistic. The best we can get is one million after 30 to 50 years.

I believe that we are not going to see this come to frutation and that is why I believe that we shouldnt really expect it when we are investing. These type of predictions only matter when we actually do something about it, if we do not do anything about it then you can say it could be 30k or 300k or 3million, none of it would matter at all. I think it only important if you bet on it and make an investment regarding this and we should not really invest based on it. It would hurt your confidence on the long run if it goes high but to where you want. It should not be all that possible anytime soon, it definitely is a multi decade thing if possible. Should be important to have some reasonable amount as your goal.

If 10M per coin means Bitcoin representing all global wealth, than today's value of $28,000 means that Bitcoin represents about 1/360 of global wealth. I seriously doubt that Bitcoin adoption is that high. That 1 in 360 people fully switched to Bitcoin, or that 1/360 of all wealth was moved to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price is purely determined by supply and demand. And we have very poor understanding of what drives the demand and supply. We want to believe that this is adoption and people are using Bitcoin, but how much of it is just speculation? Maybe long-term speculation, but still speculation.

Who knows? we really don't know what will be the final price of bitcoin. Remember that in the beginning, no one really thought that in the next decade, the price will go as high as our last all time high.

So Hal might be right after all, of course, he is already a genius, but what separate him it that he really is a hands-on guy as far as early as the birth of bitcoin. He is already there to mine as well and then make this bold prediction that we are now unravelling and looking at the future, yes, we might unlock this price.

Hal is truly a genius and that's why many think that he's the real satoshi and the closest candidate to be one. $10M in the future is possible although we haven't reached $100k yet. But before anyone else had that idea that "anything is possible" for the price of Bitcoin, he already had that on his mind before everyone said that, and note that it was in the early days of Bitcoin. We're not even close to that price but in the past ATHs and not even ATHs, we've got already a lot of stories about rugs to riches because of Bitcoin and how much more with that price in the future.

Yes, all of its attributes, halving, lost bitcoins forever, limited supply, and mining difficulty make it scarce and will be scarcer as year passes by.

It is mother of predictions but is it realistic and achievable?

I guess not but as a Bitcoin holder, I hope I am wrong.

GDP by country in 2022, shows Tuvalu's GDP is $60,349,391. It will be like 10 BTC if the prediction of Hal Finney becomes true. Some small nations with low national GDP from the list will not require too many bitcoins.

Bitcoin whales will be very powerful people if 1 BTC worths $10,000,000.

I think Hal really knows what's about to go down with Bitcoin that's why he is one of the pioneers and as a contributor, and so he is well aware of what could have been the price in the next decade or so and he did that prediction.

Of course, there are a lot of predictions as well in the next coming years that we should take with a grain of salt. But coming from a legend himself? really not hard to see that we might in the future hit that price point and all we can say is that Hal is correct.

And this could be the very first prediction as well.

It's just hard to phantom what Hal Finney said way back, just a couple of days when Bitcoin was just released by Satoshi, on what could be the price of bitcoin in the future and it could be the "Mother of all predictions. This is what the legend say,



https://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg10152.html

Just imagine though if Hal is still with us today, the man is really a genius and visionary, as now that we have seen a lot of predictions of what will be the price is the future, like in the next bull run, we will be hoping to see $100,000.

But this could be a big possibility down the line that $ 10 million = 1 BTC. Perhaps in the next 3 halvings?

Do you think it's possible given that bitcoin is going to be scarce?

By the end of 2024, there will be 20 million bitcoins. Currently, we are in 19,500, circulating supply.

So if my calculations where right, 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined by 2032.

And that 1% will be mined for the last 100 years.