Topic: Halving already 100% priced in! Would you buy or sell now? (Read 3280 times)

As for me there cannot be never told about mining that is profitable. If the price of bitcoin will move high normally without doing big jumps and stay there for sure that cannot be told that is profitable. The difficulty cannot be never predicted and it was enough to have two-three big jumps that mining become forever unprofitable for those who have invested in mining (whatever kind of investment may be) before these jumps. To not tell if the price stay unchanged and the difficulty increased. Or even worst the price go down. All these options probable to happen.

As for sell or buy for me is always buy. Even if the price increased buy. This price is to low compared to that in which is hoped that bitcoin arrive. Who believe on that, risk. Who don't, wait. Someone will cry and some another will laugh. Who will be one and who the other one will be known only in the future.

The price has dropped a lot from the recent peak. So the price will rise even if the halving is already priced in.

Yeah, not 100% priced in. Partially priced in perhaps, but not totally. The decreased supply after the halving will have it's full affect in a couple of months after halving day like it did last time. Maybe even sooner due to increased awareness and use of bitcoin compared to last halving. When this is realized and felt, then the pricing in will become closer to the 100% of what the halving should cause.

Halving is not priced in yet...My crystal ball told me this yesterday

The smart money has cost, it will not enter bitcoin 6 months in advance. It will enter may be in March or April.

i will do nothing special about the halving...

Similar to my earlier post, might as well look at the recent litecoin halving too

Litecoin had its first halving on 25 August 2015
https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/litecoin-first-block-reward-halving

Marked here with this orange vertical line on a chart of litecoin versus US$



This is quite different to the first bitcoin halving but in both cases there has been what looks like a large speculative bubble followed by higher price afterwards.

In Litecoin's halving the bubble peaked before the actual halving date and was not enough to approach all time highs in litecoin. Although litecoin normally has its own all time highs roughly in sync with bitcoins movements, this halving occuring at a time when litecoin was already at a very depressed price and bitcoin is still well below its own all time high.

But the essence of my idea remains that the halving may induce a bubble as part of the price discovery mechanism.

the price will surely have to rise a lot more, people will still invest a lot of money into bitcoin like a month ago as they will wait for a huge price increase because of price halving, these investments will surely bump the price upwards the only question is how much it will affect the price

I think the halving is priced in, but that is not to stay it would not move up for other reasons. It held well over the Holidays which is a good sign. I expected it to dip as people spent.

Oops 

Looking at the charts  there is still some action going on.
Although we can't see it with a big price raise, a new resistance is still being tested out.

Now you've ruined it by letting everyone know!

Maybe its priced in for the smart money who already knows about the halving but not for the speculators who hear about it late and jump in when price is already moving up? It then creates a snowball rolling getting bigger where more people jump on at the end just because they see huge gains, this is the bubble forming.

You're talking about only the in view of miners' and their mining costs effectiveness.
But there would be sudden change in supply of bitcoin which will trigger how people will be seeing on bitcoin's future.
We cannot estimate the people's predictions on demand supply conflict, which may lead to a new life time high price also.

remember that the current price is already good for the halving, but this is for now

there are still 7 months before the halving, which mean that plenty of thing will change, but if everything will remain the same by the time that the halving come, diff included

then yes there is no reason for the price to grow to accomodate the halving

Interesting fact: If the current price of bitcoin doubles for the halving then "market cap" will be equal to what it was at the last ATH.

That's because litecoin is a shitcoin, duh.

Quick recap: What you are saying is halving may in fact be priced in, but all sorts of speculation on the halving hasn't. Experience tells us the price increase (or pump) largely happened after the last halving, not before. In any case we will likely see a pump or an overvaluation of the price before the price settles to a probably higher level than the current price. The pump may not be as powerful as it was the first time. I would agree here as well, even guessing halving the reward would take a much longer time to affect the market than it did 4 years ago. We already have 15 of 21 million coins out in the wild. Some believe the pump will catapult Bitcoin into a whole other sphere of 2-3k USD. But say the price rises due to adoption/China/speculation on perceived truth of "block reward halving must have a great effect on price" before, it will most likeky settle significantly higher than what it is now.

So if I want to buy now and have patience to hold it will be a safe mid-term investment (I'm guessing 1 year). We have a few more months left and if I decided to wait a bit longer, there may still be a chance for lower prices before we really go up for good. All things considered we may even have enough time to see another major pump and dump that has nothing to do yet with actual block reward halving market dynamics, but a lot to do with false or premature hopes (short term 6 months), greed due to mass psychology and a general new Bitcoin fuzz due to print and electronic media jumping on the halving band-wagon. The media will do this for sure as the halving is an actual event and they care little about whether users hopes for a new ATH will come true or not.

Except Litecoin only hit 20% of it's ATH!

On the question "is it priced in?" I think a close to real value is priced in. What is not priced in, is speculation on what others speculate. What I mean is that you have speculators that think imminent doubling from whatever price it is, at the time (Speculator-A). Then you have speculators that don't give a rats ass as long as there is movement (Speculator-B) and knowing that others think there will be movement. The latter being the ones who actually move the price later since all the ones that "guarantee" it will go up have already bought. The ones who know there will likely be a pump just because it did last time (Speculator-C) have also front run the halving, effectively removing a large amount of buying force from the event (A + C). Does this mean it will rally, but not as much as most believe? It's hard to say yet, but it's also an event that is similar to a triangle consolidation.. Since we know how it worked out last time, this time should be the same. However, every oscillation weakens from the last because of front running and thereby limiting the remaining driving force.

Speculators A and C are (or will be by the halving) out of the game in that they will provide no measurable pressure for any rise due in part or in full of the halving. Speculator-B will be the ones that actually create the rally based on what they speculate others are doing. This may have a muted effect on any halving rally we get since they aren't going to buy it all the way to $30k so the rest can get rich.

Basically, I agree with af in that the speculative bubble is not actually the pricing in of the halving. The true price is only after the price jump (or lack thereof) and subsequent decline, but I think that this halving will have less effect than the previous one, and will be stronger than the next.

Yeah I agree. It's way too early for a priced in halving imo. There's almost 8 months to go before it happens.
In 4-5 months we can start to argue about that I think if price shouldn't have moved significantly.But not now.

I get puzzled by numerous comments I have seen here and on other threads stating that nothing happened on the last halving!!!! My memory was that bitcoin went wildly bullish during the last halving. In order to remind myself which version is right and satisfy my curiosity I decided to look it up.

The last halving was on 28th Nov 2012 when block reward halved from 50 btc to 25 btc
http://www.prlog.org/12032578-bitcoin-community-celebrates-halving-day.html

I've marked that event on this chart with this orange vertical line


edit: Improved chart

OK it didnt go boom and do a price doubling on that exact day but really look at the price how it was rising to unfathomable new highs just afterwards.

This looks like a massive speculative bubble followed by correction and only eventually after a long time true price starting to be known.

I think next halving is not priced in but again most likely there will be a huge speculative bubble.

Litecoin was similar recently except the speculative bubble was sooner.

My conclusion is that we are likely on the cusp of another huge speculative bubble. Only much later after bubble has deflated will new bitcoin supply be truely priced in.
 

I am also currently getting hold of as many coins as I can and am holding till the halving. I just hope it does increase by then so that I can sell them and if it doesn't I'll have to just keep waiting. If it just reaches $600, it would be the right time to sell. Fingers crossed.

Lots of people are like you out there who are buying predicting price to rocket during halving. This is creating strong buying force above 400 so better ride this uptrend, i am also buying or collecting.

When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

There will be new pumps alright, but mainly because regular users believe the price must go up by this summer. If there are pumps, there will be dumps. Why? Mere mass-psychology.

I started this thread to find out your opinion and the general view seems to be halving is not priced in. SO business as usual, just HODL and sell high.

NP, let's just wait and see - with any luck these losers will miss out on a great pump.

Oh sorry, I thought you were talking about me. My bad.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

Whats the big deal? its not really a big deal tbh.  Its just a freakin block sizing

Yes it is priced in.  For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins.  Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.

Prefacing your thread title with "I believe..." would be a hell of a lot more accurate than stating it as fact. Don't you think? Or do you not care if you are lumped in with the fucktard trolls around here espousing all kinds of bullshit all the time...

I have no hard proof whatsoever. I just found the idea of the entire community thinking we will see a new ATH this year mostly because of the block reward halving unlikely. Mining hasn't had a direct effect on the price for almost four years. It just never worked out the way everyone believed it would all these years. If China buys up coins and gold...that's another story.

I don't get how u can tell that its priced so confident

I expect it to go up more, but am not as convinced as to buy a lot know. So I will keep doing what I usually do: buy then sell about 0.8-1.2 $ higher, while I keep a nice amount just in case it goes up abruptly. If it goes down abruptly instead, I will buy some more.

You may call this strategy "up with caution".

What do you think that 4x rise the month before the last litecoin halving was? you think that was just coincidental?
And that was with a coin hardly anybody uses or gives a fuck about.
I'd like to know why the OP thinks the bitcoin halving is priced in; to make such a statement he must have reliable data on the 3500 new coins created each day over the last year; what percentage were sold right away and absorbed by the market? what percentage of that number vs the total traded each day? let's see some proof of what you say.

There's also the factor that if hodlers currently aren't selling, the price probably needs to go higher to make them spend Bitcoins, otherwise they will just buy more until all supply is deleted and then they force it higher.

I don't think so, there is much more room for growth. I do even think we may see a new ATH this year. If you do think the halving is fully priced in, then you are better off by selling your coins and wait some months to buy back.

The halving is really weird occurence imo. From logical point of view price of bitcoin should rise significantly (less bitcoin in circulation=more demand=price rise)
But I learned that after previous halvings price always went down (either after 1st bitcoin halving or litecoin halving) Which is rather surprising for me.
So there is a reason why this time should be different?

I will just be holding for the foreseeable future, either bitcoin willl rise to unimaginable  highs or i will lose all that ive invested. Whatever happens i dont need to do anything.

No, the halving is not priced in when it started to rise 8 months out.  The big halving rise won't even start till around 3 months ahead of the halving.  Halving will see a minimum of $600, but it will likely overshoot much higher then come back down and could also cause a bubble to $1600-3200 in the process.  The goal of all big BTC holders was to accumulate most of it then pump later, and around 80% will already be mined by around that time, so then it's time to pump to the moon again.

It is middle ground pricing. This  I agree with in the OP but having it already adjusted into the current price  this I am having a difficult time to believe. Any proofs on this theory? I mean hard evidence.

Yes we are just holding our fingers crossed and waiting for halving to happen because only the experienced people with more knowledge about Bitcoin will understand the affect of Halving.

I do not think price of bitcoin completed the climbing for the pre-halving consequence. May be it got doubled it's value, but that is not meaning, it has achieved all the appreciations for halving.
We are still far away from halving, so expect another doubling in bitcoin prices.

I've brought up the efficient market hypothesis as it pertains to the halving, but I've never had a response.  I too think it's already priced in, if indeed it can be priced in.  I'm not 100% sure how the bitcoin market works.  Stocks I can understand because there are businesses behind the shares that can be analyzed, but bitcoin is something else.  Nevertheless I don't think the price is going to be affected all that much.  Guess we'll see, eh?

If the halving is already priced then it's better to sell now

i don't think the block halving price is 100% priced in already. i definitely won't sell any of my cold wallet coins at current price. i think there still is a 100% gain that we can achieve this year from current price.

none i would just hold and when it goes low i would buy

supply will slow to a crawl as demand picks up big time.

>32,000$ <2 years.

 

It's still over half a year away. I don't see how something like that can be priced in yet. I'm far from convinced that it will have much effect but there's no way of knowing until the moment approaches.

Time to accumulate was the past several months when bitcoin was below $300, this is the time to HODL

edit :

or accumulate then HODL if you were too late or afraid to get the bargain prices for most of last year

I disagree halving has been priced already. I think price was too low after last bubble collapse, ability to short bitcoin helped push it even lower still, and then fears over blocksize and fork also put a lid on it. Rises we are seeing now are nothing yet.

Just because the price is going up doesnt mean it goes up every day. Some day there will be crashes it's just a normal market. So just be relaxed and dont check the price too often. Also sure buy some more coins still we are below 1/2 of the ATH.

Maybe your overthinking is the thing that'll get you, maybe not. I'm not an expert and I don't think there is a soothsayer who knows it all. My advice is to stay calm and hold/accumulate more coins. 430 dollars is a bargain really.

Everything is priced in, the halving, the block size scalability issues, etc - since these things were known about from the beginning - but the price always goes up. Thats very bullish signal.

Personally I do not think the halving has been priced in yet at current prices. Bitcoin is still well above the 200 week SMA which is at $260 today. I think we may see $400 once again and I would be a buyer at that level. I am optimistic for 2016 and expect to see $690 later in the year.

agreed,would be better to see where price will goes. like you said if buy bitcoin now at the price around $400-$430 it will risk to get lost when price drop.

It's a bit controversial here. Those who view the block reward halving as a milestone in Bitcoin’s journey of struggle and triumph will have a lot to celebrate. The block reward only gets cut in half after a certain amount of the total supply has been mined. Therefore, the only way this halving will continue is if miners continue to hash out blocks. And what is the only way to ensure the mining process continues? Bitcoin’s relevance is the key to this question; i,e. miners will only continue mining if there is a profit to be made from Bitcoin, which means people have to use and value the digital currency. Thus, a block size halving signifies that Bitcoin is still relevant, and it remained relevant for a significant amount of time.

Speculators, on the other hand, probably won’t have much to celebrate when the halving comes. These people think the price will skyrocket when the block reward diminishes. On the surface, that belief really makes sense. Supply shrinks relative to demand, so the price goes up. However, that isn’t exactly how the halving works. The actual supply will not decrease, rather, the rate of growth will slow. The supply, the amount of coins in existence, will still grow continuously. Thus, there is nothing about the halving to lead us to say with certainty that demand will outstrip supply and send the price soaring.

For the price to rise in response to the halving, demand will still have to overcome the amount of coins already in existence, in addition to the new coins being mined — even though they are being mined at a slower rate. In order for the price to really go up, demand would have to rise constantly while the growth in supply slows, until the growth in demand surpasses growth in supply. That doesn’t seem likely right now, though, since the price has remained fairly constant for almost a year — indicating that Bitcoiners are in some sort of holding pattern with their valuations.

So lets wait for the final results of our speculation whether we can celebrate the halving event or not.

Like I said, until recently I was convinced the price would skyrocket in 2016. But as some forum members have explained Bitcoin is unpredictable and if everone and their mother think it will go up, it might do something completely different.

I also believe it will go up a bit, but will it shoot up to the ATH? Mining has little to no effect on the price anymore.

Just because I'm Legendary doesn't mean I'm always bullish (though usually I am). But I'm beginning to doubt a bit if what everyone hopes for will actually happen. For a price increase we will need to see more than the halving, more adoption or good news like the recent European Court of Justice ruling.

I agree with everyone here who would hold their coins even if nothing happens to the price. But I don't think I will buy more coins at or above 400-430 right now.

I do nothing...the market has already regulated it...
halving can only help to increase the price...it's logic.

The problem will be for the miners...now it is 25 + 1 = 26 BTC (or so)(1 btc from transactions)
after we will have 12.5 +1.5 = 14 (or so)

it will be interesting to see how the miners will mine.
I'm impatient to see.

You see halving like only one reason for btc price increase If it is only one reason btc have to move above 600$ and comeback to 400$

after halving mining won't profitable anymore if price doesn't increase,I think price will hit 1000$ before halving so bitcoin is still a good investment

If there is not reason for the price to climb after the halving, there is also no reason for the price to fall.

I would sit tight on my coins (I'm doing this) and wait for the natural growth of bitcoin, which is going to happen unrelated to the halving anyway.

I would hold what I have and accumulate more.
Simple and easy to answer from my point of view.Even a disappointing halving would not destroy Bitcoin.
And just because everybody believes we will see more rise doesn't mean it won't happen.
It's the first I read a Legendary's post under the assumption he seems to fear the halving.That's weird!

I think that if all remains the same, the price SHOULD go up, that's a fact since mining won't be as profitable therefore less BTC will be available every day that passes. However in these types of periods is where we will see if Bitcoin has actual demand and if a price of close to $1000 or more would be viable and not ridiculous. If it is, then the sky is the limit since there's a fixed amount of BTC so all our dreams will come true, value will continue to rise. The problem I see is that Bitcoin it is still just and investment, no common person needs it for anything and it's still far too complicated to be adopted by common folks, so I don't think demand will be huge after the halving if Bitcoin development can't evolve.

I will sell and then wait for price drops and then buy as much as possible and wait for halving occurs

the key factor is the diff, if the diff increase too much before the halving, this price will not be sustainable

right now the ratio between the earning and consumption is 6:1, before was 8:1, so you see it increase pretty fast, 20% each month at least

at this rate, the final earning will be very minimal

Only reward cutting half will not be able to make price to get pump as new coin will be smaller portion of the already mined and almost sold coins from miners. People sentiment and hope may play some role so i will not be expecting price to get over 500 within halving or before it.

I suggest only to do day trade as the straight uptrend of months seems to get stucked from novemeber and december.

430 is too low to sell and too high to buy, then whats the best solution for this case!
The price should go up because the reward for the block will be cut by 50% and maybe the block size issue by that time will be solved.

Odd question from a legendary member.  You really need us to tell you to buy or sell?

Read in several threads that mining would still be profitable for most miners if price wouldn't change at all when halving kicks in.

Until today I was absolutely sure the price would go up long before summer but apart from the psychological factor and the entire community awaiting an increase there is no reason this would happen. Were we all wrong? Ever since the first halving new coins hitting the market play only a minor role (no role at all anymore for BTC pricing). So why would the price go up?

I don't know about you but perhaps this isn't the time for coin accumulation after all. 430 is too low to sell and too high to buy imo.