Topic: Hardware with reasonable ROI? (Read 3250 times)

On 28 Nov. 2013 the exchange rate of LTC on BTC-e nearly did reach $50, peaking at more than $48.

15000 Gh/s ?? Sure ??

Great idea.  I have 15 TH/s miners in testing, would you like a preorder?  Early adopters get a special price of 30 BTC per miner, just send it to the address in my sig.

No. The first gen ASICs for scrypt have only one benefit thus far - lower power consumption... no increase in hashrate density (at all) and they are priced to compete ONLY as a lower power replacement for GPUs - meaning their $/MH is almost double what a GPU runs even at inflated prices we have today for GPUs. It'll take at least another year and a lot of work to increase the hashrate density of scrypt ASICs to the point where they are competitive in the $/MH area with GPUs... so if you are inclined to mine your way to crypto, it's going to be viable via GPU for quite a bit longer than most people are claiming. There is still a very good argument to be used in the mining versus buying controversy:

If you are mining, you are 'buying' crypto in small increments - buying as price rises, buying as prices fall - mining is a price-neutral way of acquiring crypto which makes it very valuable to those of us who look at prices and are caught like a deer in the headlights about what price to buy at. Further, when you buy crypto, you establish a 'position' from which you are either losing or making money on your investment - and that can also drive folks crazy and cause overreaction to price deltas - panic selling being one such reaction.

So, depending on your investment profile or personality, mining may, indeed, make a lot of sense. Ultimately, if your goal is to acquire crypto for the long term, an investment in some equipment can make a lot of sense. Set up the rig, point it at a pool, and enjoy the ride not worried about trading differentials or prices and know that you are investing every single minute in your financial future...

This is how I look at it anyway, YMMV.

r00tdude

Never.

I don't think there is a product on the market that will make you a reasonable ROI softworkz

That's one way, or find a silicon team to manufacture the chips. Launch an early pre-order, build the chips, say you're "testing" and smile.

How do you build your own miner?  Just order a bunch of individual chips?

Honestly the best way to make BTC with ASIC miners is the following:

1) Pre-order a miner early, as soon as launched. Once received mine a bit, then sell for BTC profit over price (I've made +50% BTC doing this)

2) Order a bunch of cheap miners, like the USB mining sticks. Sell them as "fashion" accessories to the mining masses on Amazon or other sites. +25%

3) Build your own miner. As the silicon comes in mine the heck out of it. Over 12 months make 1000%+ profit. Sell silicon late, but recoup original HW cost. Smile all the way to the bank. Some believe BFL did this.

I have purchased Antminers from both sushi group buy and Bitmain. Both shipped promptly and the units run like snot. I am selling my BFL units that I bought at a good price and buying antminers as they are a smaller footprint and pretty darn effecient. Antmining may RIO more than people expect as the power efficiency claims of the lower nm stuff is not as good as advertised so far. The big question is KNC tehy under promised and over delivered before. I personally just hope they are late. Good thing it's just a hobby.

Doing go chasing it sucks...

"Hardware with reasonable ROI?"
There's no more such a thing.

Hey,

thanks for all comments and confirming my assessments. I haven't seen any post before that made things so clear for me (and others hopefully).

As to my other suspicion: I am now even more convinced that at least some of the non-scam mining device manufacturers already got their products ready and are running them on their own for a while. Honestly: Who wouldn't be tempted to do just that? The devices are already funded through pre-orders, so why ship too early when you can run them on your own creating additional value?
Some of the manufacturers are even showing pictures of their data centers pretending to offer "hosted mining" (e.g. Butterfly, Bitwin).
The existence of those data centers is one of the things I tend to believe.

I am really curious about what might happen later this year. Without an exponential growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate, none of the announced devices will be profitable within just a few months, taking into account the exponential growth in difficulty.

Again, thanks for your help and thanks for keeping me off buying some useless hardware...

softworkz

maybe not rapid increasing as btc diff but it sure will send gpu mining out of the game much sooner than they last in btc mining. btc value was 4-5 times higher when asic-s arrived last year, even more later on. that's why gpu-s are lasted till summer in btc mining.
that will not be a case this time even if diff will not increase as fast as btc diff.
ltc value depends of btc value and it is always around 2.5.3% from btc value so for LTC to be worth $100, btc need's to be at least $3000-$3500 worth.
anyhow, even if we don't see exponentially increasing difficulty just as bitcoin gpu-s will soon be out of the game because value of ltc or other scrypt coins isn't going anywhere. at least not dramatically to save gpu-s.

With scrypt ASIC starting to come out, are we going to have a exponenitally increasing difficulty just as bitcoin?

You know, 48 is considered as "almost 50".
45 is considered as "almost 50".
But not 35 and $35 is highest value that ltc ever reached!
Now that scrypt/sha256 combo asic are jumping in the scene diff is rising again.
Alpha-t is shipping by the middle of July and I don't see reason why not to believe them.
What are the chances that another "BFL fail" will happen again.

Yes.

That's suggests "certainty" in pre-orders. The only question  that can asked is "when do they claim they will ship"

When are they shipping?

Which makes it very risky IMO. You don't know delivery date, LTC price when it arrives, if it will ever arrive, whether it will have any privately-funded ASIC competition when it does arrive etc.

We all know what the first bitcoin ASIC manufacturer was like with their pre-ordering delivery dates 

It was bad time for mining in middle of autumn?, before litecoin rising up to almost 50$.
Now difficulty not rised so high as price is rised. Strange but difficulty of LTC not rising it all now.
But in this autumn price of radeon card was not so low.

yes

that's a pre-order right?

invest in alpha-t asic

there is no hardware with reasonable ROI any more.

investing in gpu rig is also bad idea IMHO.
long time to make ROI and scrypt asic-s are behind the corner!
resell value of gpu-s???
I don't think so.
in the last six months, shitload of gpu-s was sold for mining purposes.
in about 3-6 months they will not be profitable any more shitload of people will start to sell them!
you can imagine how many of them will be for sale! there is no one to buy them!
if you feel lucky enough to sell yours between million of them for sale than play fucking lottery!
you think people will create some XY coin with XY algorithm to make these gpu-s running?
well think again.

Seriously, for miner, the price and delivery date is the most important.
Though the lifetime of a used unit maybe shorter, it is not really that important.

I bet most of those ASICs will be shut down when it is no longer profitable to be run, before they are no longer working.

Why buy new if you can get a used one for 30% or more off?

Why buy used? New Antminers go for about $1200 (1.45 btc).

Good you did your calculations and indeed, they are correct. You are very unlikely to get ROI from any hardware you buy today.

+1!!!  I was going to get some ASIC miners but with the current difficulty and the cost of the device, it was going to be a paperweight soon after it broke even.  Went the GPU route so I can mine anything.

If they came out with a 200GH scrypt based dedicated miner, I might plunk down for it, but until then, GPU's it is...

what bitmaintech.com can trusted?? Do you have product from them?? 

Perhaps the most profitable BTC business is to "invent" a new miner, create a cool website and accept preorders.

Or really get some engineeers to develop a new ASIC, accept preorders, build the devices and run them in your own data center.
Finally deliver them in the last month they seem profitable for people who cannot do some proper calculation...

softworkz

Thanks a lot for your comments!

@kendog: I mostly agree. After all calculations the Antminer was my top 1 device. But even if I would get a used one for let's say 1500 USD, it doesn't look too good. Do you know the calculations from http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/ ?
I checked their calculation and it seems reasonable. The only thing I am not sue about is the projected difficulty increase - or the question if the dificulty increase from the last months can really be extrapolated into the future like they are doing...

In fact their projected difficulty increase is to steep that even Cointerra, Hashfast or Bitmine would not produce any ROI

@glendall:
1) sure, for litecoin might be an option.  Taking resale revenues into account makes the calculation look much better, especially compared to ASIC miners that may drop to a resale value of $0 quickly. But according to my calculations, the rentability of Litecoin GPU mining may become negative March or April (unless you don't pay for power consumption). Correct?

2) True

3) Would never do that. Especially not paying by bitcoins...

softworkz

If you are looking to make money, just buy BTC. You'll save yourself a lot of work, and the odds are that you'll make a good profit.

If you are looking to mine guess you like that sort of thing, research research research.  3 pieces of advice:
1) gpu's are great because they have a very good resale value.
2) for ASICs, if you want to break even in 2.5 / 3 months at least.  if it doesn't look like it will by then, don't get it
3) don't go for any preorders.  there is no point any more, and it is too risky.

In my opinion, the only hardware that you can purchase now, have mining within two weeks, and have a reasonable chance of reaching ROI are Bitmain Antminers. 1.45BTC for 180-200 GH/s is just over $6/GH.

However, now that Hashfast, Cointerra, and Bitmine appear to be shipping, I would proceed with caution because a lot of hashing power will come online within the next three months...

https://www.bitmaintech.com/product.htm

Hi,

this is my first post here on the forum.

I have read a lot about btc mining during the last weeks and did quite some research on hardware and return of invest calculations.

As a result I haven't found any mining hardware available at this time - be it new or used - that would generate a reasonable return of invest over any possible timespan.
Some ASIC miner specs may lead to a positive calculation if theses devices would be available today, but all of these devices have deferred delivery dates...

So my question to the experts here: Are my calculations correct?
Or is there any hardware available today - used or new - that I can buy now and that will generate some reasonable profit? (no matter if it's 500 or 5000$)

Thanks for your thoughts,

softworkz