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Topic: Has anyone read "The Case Against Augur", it becomes more clear how shady eth is (Read 788 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
Thirdly, as for the interaction of law and permissionless block chain smart contract outcomes, the law will not be able to reverse the outcome of a permissionless block chain, so the law will irrelevant.

One might point out that if a block chain is resistant to control by the law, then anonymity protocol should also be immune to the law. However, the distinction is that the governments can regulate their own citizens and require they reveal their transactions. I think it is nearly impossible to prevent the NSA from tracking our metadata.

It is true that without the control over 51% of the hashrate (the miners) in order to fork the protocol to enforce something like MIT's ChainAnchor, the government might have difficult gaining complete complliance:


1. The protocol change can in theory eventually be implemented on Bitcoin (and even Monero once it scales up) because Satoshi's block chain design centralizes. With a block chain design which doesn't centralize, it becomes more difficult to implement such a protocol change. A block chain should be practically unforkable. One of the issues that my design fixes, is that the miners are everyone, not just a few farms in known locations. The governments are not very successful when they try to regulate end users, because some people are hard-headed and there are always outliers who disobey and take their chances which causes others to become emboldened and copy them. The government can't stop what becomes popular and which is a leaky sieve (e.g. decentralized file sharing). They need a smaller set of entities (the miners) to regulate. Don't give up yet, I still have something to offer as a potential solution.

However, my point is that the government forcing users to reveal their transactions does not force a protocol change. The government doesn't need to force the block chain to change its data. Whereas, I contrasted this above with the outcomes of smart contracts on the block chain, where the law can't force the block chain to change its data (e.g. to force some money to be credited to another party). Of course the law could compel some user to pay another user something, but this would not undo the result of the smart contract in terms of the congruence of the data on the block chain with the rules of the contract. Any risk of intervention by the law will be factored by humans who use smart contracts.

My prior posts that are relevant:


TPTB will allow a privacy coin and use it for themselves so they can hide their wealth, but they will demand they have the viewkey for all of us. Btw, the best technology for anonymity appears to be Zcash, because the anonymity set is the all tokens. But I don't yet know how the viewkey will work on Zcash, someone may need to fork the technology and add a better viewkey. Monero/Cryptonote/RingCT is a weaker technology and overlapping rings could in theory break the anonymity. That is why I didn't appreciate your bullshit when you tried to pump Monero as being better than Zcash.

The only possible way to counter TPTB, is if the masses want something which TPTB can't give them. The masses want privacy, but they don't want anonymity and to destruct taxes, governance, and socialism. I argued to generalizethis recently that just paying our tax on each transaction anonymously would not be sufficient, because governance is a power vacuum (winner-take-all) and since we will never have a uniform distribution of wealth, it will always be the case that the peons want TPTB to steal from the collective on their behalf and thus it will always be the case that TPTB must know what all the millionaires are doing so they can keep them down and prevent them from rising to compete with TPTB. This is why anonymity without a mandatory viewkey for TPTB will not be a sustainable nor mass adopted direction.

When China's mining oligarchy can implement MIT's ChainAnchor which turns off your ability to spend unless you comply with your local government's taxation and capital controls, then where Bitcoin is accepted is less relevant than whether it is no longer a permissionless system.

In order for Bitcoin to scale, the mining must become (already is!) centralized. Blockstream's SegWit makes that even more so.

A centralized control over which transactions are allowed, is not an alternative to fiat. It is just fiat by another name or metaphor.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
I am going to be analyzing some of Paul Sztorc's blogs.

Let's start with his criticism of oracles incorporated into smart contracts:


CoinCube, Paul Sztorc writes about your upthread concept of the tradeoff between defectors and top-down coordination (do you have a link in the OP?).

Remember AnonyMint was proposing anarchism and a totally free market. You were pointing out that top-down organization is also necessary to prevent divergence (you had presented a biological model to demonstrate the point). AnonyMint had agreed with you that even bottom-up processes are composed of top-down processes, e.g. the owners of small businesses are on aggregate a bottom-up process, but individually they are each top-down run businesses. I visualize this as a fractal organization which nests (recurses) bottom-up and top-down processes within each other.

Paul's makes several points. First he explains that if contracts (scripting) is free to copy the oracle's data feed without paying for it, then the oracles will have no incentive to be honest and thus the Nash equilibrium is destroyed and the oracle can gain more by cheating (e.g. some game theory of lying then shorting the coin or what ever):

...

Side-chains are insecure:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/side-chains-challenges-potential-1397614121
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7613520
http://www.rootstock.io/blog/sidechains-drivechains-and-rsk-2-way-peg-design

My expectation is that Blockstream (+ the Chinese mining cartel) are going to either outright break or centralize the mining/control of Bitcoin. We need to be ready with something that works correctly for when they do.

ArticMine, the merged mining for Namecoin with very minimal validation can't be compared to the extensive CPU resources required to verify smart contracts.

I have no confidence whatsoever in Rootstock being merge-mined by Bitcoin miners. Fuhgeddaboudit.

Rube Goldberg machines suck.

Paul then argues that altcoins can't compete with his side-chain nirvanahell, because he thinks the only use for altcoins are for oracles and he had already argued successfully that oracles break Nash equilibrium and he had proposed his side-chain hell as "solution" to the unfixable problem of oracles. So what Paul is effectively claiming is that block chains are as insolubly flawed as fiat and government that came before them.

Quote
What about Altcoin Smart Contracts (neither pegged nor merged-mined)?

...

First of all, I think Paul is incorrect about non-existence of popular use cases for smart contracts other than oracles. For example, I have already designed a new concept for a "DAO" (some details were only peer reviewed privately) which I think can replace, decentralize, and revolutionize stock markets. And it doesn't require an oracle. The key insight that Paul is missing is that when each investor votes independently, they are entirely in control of their own vote signature and their own real world observations, i.e. each voter is a self-interested oracle so we only have to consider the Nash equilibrium in the context of the game theories around their self-interest. This can be done entirely within a block chain without an oracle.

Secondly, I don't agree that Bitcoin will end up being the CC of the Internet. Microtransactions are going to drive the CC of the Internet, and I have a lock on the superior technology for that. I am nearly certain that Blockstream is going to blow-up Bitcoin in a heap of Rube Goldberg complexity such as that insecure, permissioned, non-trustless, side-chain nonsense.

Thirdly, as for the interaction of law and permissionless block chain smart contract outcomes, the law will not be able to reverse the outcome of a permissionless block chain, so the law will irrelevant. And if we really want oracles, we can possibly employ multi-sig voting to establish external data feeds. As long as each data feed isn't pervasive enough to have a large impact on most outcomes in the block chain, then any gaming of the feeds won't impact the Nash equilibrium of the block chain overall.

In summary, Paul is a somewhat smart guy, but he isn't omniscient. Others are also thinking and working on these issues. He should get out and converse more outside of his Ivy League bankster circle.

Note in the comments on his blog post, Paul got schooled on the issue of the block size. I have a technological solution to the block size dilemma/quagmire.
newbie
Activity: 3
Merit: 0
This has been making it's rounds for a while and it seems like bitterness. It sucks because a Bitcoin version of Augur would be amazing, but I doubt this guy's project goes anywhere, just because of how he handles himself.

I'm new to Cryptocurrency, but I've followed prediction markets for years and there hasn't been a time in recent memory where so many exciting things are happening. I hear a lot of negativity about Ethereum, but I haven't been fully convinced by anyone's arguments yet. Enough people are making these arguments that there could be something to them, but the analysis out there is so shady and bias that I can't take any of it seriously yet. The fact he's said nothing about Gnosis is a simple example of why I don't buy this.

Why I haven't heard more about Hivemind?

I'm not sure how many in the PM world follow these, but the group he complains about at length seems to be the one working with respected people I've heard of, one with an actual team that is publicly named and have dwarfed the others in exposure. I'm still not sold on Augur, but the arguments I hear against them are shoddy at best.
sr. member
Activity: 335
Merit: 250
Hivemind is a bitcoin peer to peer oracle protocol and prediction marketplace similiar to augur being on ethereum.  Never knew this project was underway, personally.  And didn't know the shady stuff that went on with vitalik and others.

http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/
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