Topic: Has this just been the "Silk Road drop" of 2014's bubble? (Read 4375 times)

The tension, the suspense... it's worth it !!!

Let's see.

How much lower can it go?
It seems to be falling endlessly....

In general yes, when it turns the trend also usually turns strongly. See May 20th for instance.

The long plateus signify a trend continuation ?

You can get it on tradingview if you look for ''Trend Intensity Index [LazyBear]'' under indicators.
It works best on the daily chart. It warned of this major bear trend all the way in the low 600s. Pretty neat.

It's amazing how many forum dwellers didn't understand that the bear market was still going on.
Waiting for a bubble that couldn't come. Many of them might turn bears close to the bottom.

What is the indicator on the second graph and how it works ?

This indicator was accurate as hell. 

Prices now sub-400..

I think both coinbase and bitpay cause a net amount of bitcoin to be purchased rather then sold as people will likely buy some amount greater then what they plan on spending. Companies will also likely hold at least a small percentage of their bitcoin revenue in bitcoin.

LOL 

I don't need a Silk Road event, in order to happen! Just give me some more time, geez. It's not that easy, you know?

In my opinion this isn't the same situation.  The only thing that is similar to me is the speculators and traders manipulating the market on the news.  I think that is the real issue and the cause of "bubbles".  The alt coin scene is like this all the time and I think greed and inexperience is the main cause of the bubbles.  

Here's the full data

TII on Mt.Gox:
https://i.imgur.com/jQ47WXd.jpg

TII on Bitstamp:
https://i.imgur.com/KPTlhhj.jpg

Anyhow, see it more as a ''bear or sideways'' indicator rather than it always predicting bear markets.

But this isn't unprecedented, is it? When I look on that chart, it seems like we haven't seen something like this before, so I just try and figure out what this currently means.

There were some false positives in 2012 where the indicator went down, but the market just went sideways. However, most of the time when it goes down this strongly on the daily the market turns bearish for at least a couple of weeks. We'll see.

If that indicator is that accurate, aren't we pretty much screwed then? I mean, it's turning into a bear market, and that pretty aggressively!

It basically analyzes the trend. You can get the source code here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/GhxOzF0z/
It's a fairly accurate indicator, it warns of major drops and/or trend reversals coming in advance often on the daily setting.

So, what are you implying? Are you saying we need another meteor hitting earth in order for bitcoin to become world's number 1 currency? Well, let's go and make a kickstarter 

No, unless world would go through some kind of ordeal, which would suck for most people.
Mammals were small furry animals, mostly the size of mice.
A large asteroid hit Earth 65 mil years ago, dinosaurs died off and mammals became the dominant animal group.
Bitcoin would take a very long time, if ever, to replace the current banking/money system without banking crash.

Just want to know if the price will hit 100k some day.

Its interesting reading all the posts with everyone micro analysing.

I decided to buy a few bitcoins about a month back when the price was 580 and seen a price rise to 640'ish then a slow decline back to 580

Let me share my thoughts from a real Newbie perspective.

All the news I am reading is reinforcing that bitcoin is here to stay BUT this only applies if you are already a Bitcoin convert. Try looking at the news from an outsiders perspective and then you will soon realise there is nothing YET which will attract a mad rush.

In fact, the news is probably negative from their perspective as its all about regulation and seen as uncertain doom and gloom. How is New York looking to overregulate the crap out of it making it almost impossible to trade be good news!!

The counter arguement is simple; Bitcoin doesn't need New York it just needs financially credible locations and solid support to evolve.

Just to give you a small example i read a post from a major financial journal on bitcoin clearly stating that it was a shame the industry hadn't made it 3rd world friendly as over 3 billion people are impoverished and have no access to bank accounts etc. Shame he didn't take time to do some research www.37coins.com

My position is simple.. Keep reading the news as it dribbles through and each day ask myself.. is this adding to the foundation and strengthening Bitcoin.

Soon a major incident will break.. maybe a Warren Buffet or an Ebay and it will pump to $2500 and then, have a guess what. the same scenario will happen all over again as it drops back to $1500 BUT your portfolio will still have increased THREEFOLD!

From a simpleton newbie perspective.

The credit bubble on Finex hasn't really gone down I guess. It's true that there have been quite some incidents of burned longs I guess, some may even be wiped out by now, but I've yet to see a big definitive cascade happening!

China crashed is one big correction. We have stabilize around 600.

Recent drop may been caused by Bitfinex long positions shutting (selling bitcoins and paying borrowed USD back and taking losses.) I also think that Coinbase and Bitpay give decent selling pressure to the markets.. And of course we have thousands of coins mined everyday.

Recent drop is not compared to that big one with silk road. Actually there is no bad news now.

Hey, it's the Speculation forum after all If we're not playing around with our nice little indicators, what would we be doing all day long?

i wouldn't pay too much mind to that without significant back-testing. it's hard to pull much from these sporadic data points.

SR crash was a deep flash crash. all we've seen is a slow grind down (like the post-March rally bear, except even slower). i hope we dont see a SR crash from here.... that would be painful to hold through.

Wow, that's interesting. Care to elaborate on that indicator? Do you think this means we're practically condemned and awaiting the big fall?

According to the Trend Intensity Index this one is structurally significantly more bearish:

If it gets in eBay. Nothing's for sure here. So your plan is to keep on piling up BTC as long as the price is at its current levels? Could work out.

This is good news for us. Anything that makes this stage of low price longer means cheaper BTC for us. Sooner or later the mainstream will have to admit the realities of life. When BTC gets in ebay it will be impossible to ignore for the media.

Past performance is not warranty of future gains.

I see no big exposure of bitcoin on media, so no reason to a recover beyond the last short term max of 630.

That's an important way to view the whole situation! Many people still claim that it was Willy's fault or good deed to the bitcoin community! But what if it really wasn't... I guess though, that many people are afraid because Willy isn't around anymore

But it may have been just a small shatter or kick to get the train started!! Interesting answers so far, I concur with most assessments!

This seems different, the price keeps going down slowly in little steps, not in a sudden massive drop.

But a drop from 600 to 550 its nothing compared to silk road crash (almost 35%) ... so it should be there a crash to at least 400 to "compare" both scenarios.

SR users sold me some coins in a panic.
SR2.0 users bought my coins in a panic.

a hole group left and came back, this is a very unique event and probably won't happen again.

but thats not to say a good drop can't snap back and go higher for other reasons.

and i do not believe this is what cause the bubble, they gave is a good kick start is all.

the bubble happened when it was becoming more clear the US gov wasn't going to try to kill it.

This whole Willy theory doesn't make any sense honestly.  

First of all, some have suggested that Willy was a bot/API for rich customers (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26is61/the_simplest_explanation_is_usually_the_right_one/) and not a conspiracy by Karpeles.
But most importantly, Mt. Gox was becoming less and less influential compared to say Bitstamp of BTC China at the time. With 2-3 major exchanges with more/similar volume, a single bot cannot just "command" the price of BTC and be the main reason for a massive bubble of that magnitude. Especially considering the role the chinese had in the last bitcoin madness.
Willy bot, if really a "conspiracy", might have accelerated and facilitated things and maybe made them a little more dramatic, but not more.

I agree, I think the SR seizure caused more of the public to become aware of bitcoin and more people to start using bitcoin.

The silkroad-rushup was artificial with Willy buying tons of bitcoins with stolen money...

The Silk Road drop was a moment of pure panic driven by the unexpected Silk Road seizure. It was a sudden, very sharp and news driven crash. In the end, for various reasons, SR and BTC going mainstream on news had a positive effect on the price, which was probably bound to rise anyway.

This drop is slow, on low volume and not driven by major news. Yeah, there was the gold dump (but last time gold dumped bitcoin was rising pretty fast) and Ecuador "banning" bitcoin, but they seem more like "excuses" for a drop, rather than actual reasons for what happened.

We were approaching a "moment of truth" breakout with very important long term trend lines as support, but we breached them because some chinese on Okcoin and Huobi started the dumping.

For these reasons, sadly, I don't see how this downtrend that we have right now could be seen as the "Silk Road pre-bubble crash" or a bullish signal whatsoever  

Just before the real buildup to 2013's second bubble started, there was a sharp drop, due to the seizure of the Silk Road marketplace. Everyone was worried that it might be the end of Bitcoin. Luckily the price recovered pretty quickly, and didn't stop there. It continued to climb, and climb, and climb, and bubble.



Have we just witnessed a similar incident for the alleged 2014 bubble? Discuss!