Correct me if I'm wrong but now 1THS of S5 bring around 0.00418979 BTC/TH/day (i'm using pps number). that make a ROI of 95 days (pretty nice) .
But with the next diff increase income per day goes down from 19% so it will be 0.0033 BTC/TH/day . That make a ROI of 631 days (for me equals never ROIed)
Knowing than next diff is calculated on the time it took to find the last 2016 blocks, even if some big player switch off his pool today there is no chance to trick the diff calculations .
So am I correct to assume than :
either S5 is dead in the next 5 days ?
or BTC price has to increase by at least 20% to keep the S5 running .
There is some market behaviour i don't understand right now or somebody is betting on BTC price increase ??
PS : I can't help it thinking something smell fishy and S5 market price is manipulated (why would it be buyers on the market, knowing the numbers above ? )
Your S5 PPS number is theoretical yield BEFORE deducting maintenance fee. Hashnest S5 currently makes 0.00418979 - 0.003 daily fee = 0.0011 net BTC/TH/day. The ROI at S5 market price 0.1/TH is about 90 days, so that's correct anyway
With next diff increase, say 19% the net earnings will drop to 0.00339 - 0.003 = 0.00039 net BTC/TH/day which will make theoretical ROI drop to about 270 days so despite your ROI calculation is too pesimistic it is true anyway because halving will happen in about 160 days.
However it doesn't mean S5 is dead in 5 days, the earnings will be still positive so there is a lot of time for speculation, because if BTC price goes up S5 ROI will improve.
S5 will be dead at current BTC price when difficulty grows another 11% after 19%. Then the net daily earnings will drop to zero.
PS And don't try to understand market, it always behaves irrationaly
