I used a statistical software called R to estimate the hashrate in the next 100 days from Jul, 15, 2013 using the last 180 days data from blockchain.info and the results are as follows:
And based on the estimates, 1GHs can generate around 1.29BTC on average situation without power cost deduction. In the worst case, you only get 1.09BTC and in the best case you can get 1.62BTC. So if you want to generate profit from mining, you have to buy 1GHs under 1BTC in a conservative view if you want your investment back in 100 days.
From the analysis, we are also expecting 1GHs generating 2.78BTC on average in the next year without power cost deduction. In the worst case, you only get 2.15BTC and in the best case you can get 4.398BTC. So if you want to generate profit from mining, you have to buy 1GHs under 2BTC in a conservative view if you want your investment back in a year.
Point.Forecast Lo.80 Hi.80 Lo.95 Hi.95
7/16/13 218414.1921 208164.4762 228663.9079 202738.6044 234089.7797
7/17/13 220950.0924 210289.2345 231610.9504 204645.7172 237254.4677
7/18/13 223485.9928 212389.6635 234582.3222 206515.6215 240456.3641
7/19/13 226021.8932 214466.6694 237577.1171 208349.7034 243694.0831
7/20/13 228557.7936 216521.1605 240594.4267 210149.3518 246966.2354
7/21/13 231093.694 218554.0303 243633.3577 211915.9333 250271.4547
7/22/13 233629.5944 220566.145 246693.0438 213650.7726 253608.4161
7/23/13 236165.4948 222558.3351 249772.6544 215355.1399 256975.8496
7/24/13 238701.3952 224531.3901 252871.4002 217030.2425 260372.5478
7/25/13 241237.2955 226486.0555 255988.5356 218677.2207 263797.3704
7/26/13 243773.1959 228423.0318 259123.36 220297.1458 267249.246
7/27/13 246309.0963 230342.9749 262275.2177 221891.0208 270727.1718
7/28/13 248844.9967 232246.497 265443.4964 223459.782 274230.2114
7/29/13 251380.8971 234134.1686 268627.6256 225004.3021 277757.4921
7/30/13 253916.7975 236006.5209 271827.0741 226525.3932 281308.2018
7/31/13 256452.6979 237864.0478 275041.348 228023.8108 284881.5849
8/1/13 258988.5983 239707.2087 278269.9878 229500.2576 288476.9389
8/2/13 261524.4986 241536.4311 281512.5661 230955.3874 292093.6099
8/3/13 264060.399 243352.1128 284768.6852 232389.8083 295730.9898
8/4/13 266596.2994 245154.6243 288037.9745 233804.0871 299388.5117
8/5/13 269132.1998 246944.311 291320.0886 235198.7521 303065.6475
8/6/13 271668.1002 248721.4952 294614.7052 236574.2963 306761.9041
8/7/13 274204.0006 250486.4783 297921.5229 237931.1804 310476.8208
8/8/13 276739.901 252239.542 301240.2599 239269.8354 314209.9665
8/9/13 279275.8013 253980.9506 304570.6521 240590.6654 317960.9373
8/10/13 281811.7017 255710.9517 307912.4518 241894.0492 321729.3543
8/11/13 284347.6021 257429.7782 311265.4261 243180.3429 325514.8614
8/12/13 286883.5025 259137.6491 314629.3559 244449.8816 329317.1234
8/13/13 289419.4029 260834.7711 318004.0347 245702.981 333135.8248
8/14/13 291955.3033 262521.3388 321389.2677 246939.9393 336970.6673
8/15/13 294491.2037 264197.5366 324784.8707 248161.038 340821.3694
8/16/13 297027.1041 265863.5387 328190.6694 249366.5438 344687.6644
8/17/13 299563.0044 267519.5104 331606.4985 250556.7093 348569.2995
8/18/13 302098.9048 269165.6086 335032.2011 251731.7746 352466.035
8/19/13 304634.8052 270801.9822 338467.6282 252891.9676 356377.6428
8/20/13 307170.7056 272428.7733 341912.6379 254037.5053 360303.9059
8/21/13 309706.606 274046.1171 345367.0949 255168.5945 364244.6175
8/22/13 312242.5064 275654.1425 348830.8703 256285.4326 368199.5801
8/23/13 314778.4068 277252.9729 352303.8406 257388.2081 372168.6054
8/24/13 317314.3072 278842.7262 355785.8881 258477.1014 376151.5129
8/25/13 319850.2075 280423.5153 359276.8998 259552.2852 380148.1299
8/26/13 322386.1079 281995.4485 362776.7674 260613.9249 384158.2909
8/27/13 324922.0083 283558.6297 366285.3869 261662.1797 388181.8369
8/28/13 327457.9087 285113.1587 369802.6587 262697.2021 392218.6153
8/29/13 329993.8091 286659.1315 373328.4866 263719.1389 396268.4792
8/30/13 332529.7095 288196.6406 376862.7783 264728.1316 400331.2873
8/31/13 335065.6099 289725.7751 380405.4447 265724.3163 404406.9034
9/1/13 337601.5102 291246.6207 383956.3998 266707.8244 408495.1961
9/2/13 340137.4106 292759.2604 387515.5609 267678.7827 412596.0386
9/3/13 342673.311 294263.7744 391082.8477 268637.3136 416709.3084
9/4/13 345209.2114 295760.24 394658.1828 269583.5358 420834.8871
9/5/13 347745.1118 297248.7323 398241.4913 270517.5637 424972.6599
9/6/13 350281.0122 298729.3237 401832.7006 271439.5083 429122.516
9/7/13 352816.9126 300202.0848 405431.7404 272349.4774 433284.3478
9/8/13 355352.813 301667.0835 409038.5424 273247.575 437458.0509
9/9/13 357888.7133 303124.3862 412653.0404 274133.9027 441643.524
9/10/13 360424.6137 304574.0572 416275.1703 275008.5585 445840.669
9/11/13 362960.5141 306016.1589 419904.8694 275871.6381 450049.3901
9/12/13 365496.4145 307450.752 423542.077 276723.2344 454269.5946
9/13/13 368032.3149 308877.8956 427186.7342 277563.4376 458501.1922
9/14/13 370568.2153 310297.6473 430838.7833 278392.3359 462744.0947
9/15/13 373104.1157 311710.063 434498.1683 279210.0148 466998.2166
9/16/13 375640.0161 313115.1974 438164.8347 280016.5578 471263.4743
9/17/13 378175.9164 314513.1037 441838.7292 280812.0463 475539.7866
9/18/13 380711.8168 315903.8337 445519.8 281596.5597 479827.0739
9/19/13 383247.7172 317287.4381 449207.9963 282370.1756 484125.2589
9/20/13 385783.6176 318663.9665 452903.2687 283132.9694 488434.2658
9/21/13 388319.518 320033.467 456605.569 283885.0152 492754.0208
9/22/13 390855.4184 321395.987 460314.8498 284626.3851 497084.4517
9/23/13 393391.3188 322751.5725 464031.065 285357.1497 501425.4878
9/24/13 395927.2191 324100.2688 467754.1695 286077.378 505777.0603
9/25/13 398463.1195 325442.1199 471484.1192 286787.1376 510139.1015
9/26/13 400999.0199 326777.169 475220.8708 287486.4945 514511.5453
9/27/13 403534.9203 328105.4586 478964.382 288175.5136 518894.3271
9/28/13 406070.8207 329427.03 482714.6114 288854.2581 523287.3833
9/29/13 408606.7211 330741.9239 486471.5183 289522.7901 527690.6521
9/30/13 411142.6215 332050.18 490235.063 290181.1706 532104.0724
10/1/13 413678.5219 333351.8373 494005.2064 290829.4591 536527.5846
10/2/13 416214.4222 334646.9342 497781.9103 291467.7143 540961.1302
10/3/13 418750.3226 335935.5081 501565.1371 292095.9935 545404.6518
10/4/13 421286.223 337217.5959 505354.8501 292714.353 549858.093
10/5/13 423822.1234 338493.2338 509151.013 293322.8482 554321.3987
10/6/13 426358.0238 339762.4571 512953.5904 293921.5332 558794.5144
10/7/13 428893.9242 341025.3009 516762.5475 294510.4615 563277.3869
10/8/13 431429.8246 342281.7992 520577.8499 295089.6853 567769.9638
10/9/13 433965.725 343531.9859 524399.4641 295659.2562 572272.1938
10/10/13 436501.6253 344775.8938 528227.3569 296219.2246 576784.0261
10/11/13 439037.5257 346013.5556 532061.4959 296769.6404 581305.4111
10/12/13 441573.4261 347245.0031 535901.8491 297310.5523 585836.2999
10/13/13 444109.3265 348470.2679 539748.3851 297842.0085 590376.6445
10/14/13 446645.2269 349689.3808 543601.073 298364.0562 594926.3976
10/15/13 449181.1273 350902.3722 547459.8823 298876.742 599485.5126
10/16/13 451717.0277 352109.2722 551324.7831 299380.1116 604053.9438
10/17/13 454252.9281 353310.1101 555195.746 299874.2101 608631.646
10/18/13 456788.8284 354504.9149 559072.7419 300359.0818 613218.575
10/19/13 459324.7288 355693.7153 562955.7423 300834.7706 617814.6871
10/20/13 461860.6292 356876.5394 566844.719 301301.3193 622419.9392
10/21/13 464396.5296 358053.4148 570739.6444 301758.7703 627034.2889
10/22/13 466932.43 359224.3689 574640.4911 302207.1655 631657.6945
10/23/13 469468.3304 360389.4286 578547.2322 302646.5459 636290.1148
code for the analysis
y<-RJSONIO::fromJSON(content="
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=180days&format=json")
len=length(y$values)
hashrate=rep(0,len)
unix=rep(0,len)
for(i in 1:len)
{
unix
=y$values[][2]
hashrate=y$values[][2]
}
plot(hashrate,type="l")
fit<-HoltWinters(hashrate,gamma=F)
library(forecast)
accuracy(fit)
forecast(fit, 100)
plot(forecast(fit, 100))