Have you made money by gambling on satoshi dice?

odolvlobo

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Quote from: dooglus on September 16, 2013, 08:36:44 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on September 16, 2013, 07:58:33 PM

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.

I don't think so. Most people who have played have played more than once. The longer you play, the greater the chance that you're down not up.
A month or so ago I looked at the stats for Just-Dice.com. There were about twice as many losers as winners, and the house edge there is about half that of SatoshiDice at just 1% compared to SD's 1.9%, so I imagine the ratio of winners to losers is even lower at SD.

Hmm, I think you are right. The more someone plays, the closer they get to the expected value. That will narrow the distribution, putting more people on the losing side.

dooglus

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Quote from: odolvlobo on September 16, 2013, 07:58:33 PM

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.

I don't think so. Most people who have played have played more than once. The longer you play, the greater the chance that you're down not up.

A month or so ago I looked at the stats for Just-Dice.com. There were about twice as many losers as winners, and the house edge there is about half that of SatoshiDice at just 1% compared to SD's 1.9%, so I imagine the ratio of winners to losers is even lower at SD.

odolvlobo

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~~A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.~~
There is no such thing as a "winning strategy", and you can only "stop while you are ahead" if you stop gambling forever.

dooglus

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Quote from: gabu69 on June 24, 2013, 01:54:09 PM

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%

so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

The house edge is clearly listed on the site. You've forgotten to take into account the fact that losing bets pay out a little as well.

If you adjust your calculations to take that into account, and use the actual payouts not the rounded ones, you'll see the house edge is 1.9% as advertised.

aksplace

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great dice company highly endorsed

btcton

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Personally, I've never played there Tongue

.

b!z

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Quote from: gabu69 on June 24, 2013, 01:54:09 PM

DON'T PLAY THIS GAME ffs

it's pure negative EXPECTED VALUE

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%

so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

either way house will always win in the long run, no matter if you win, the repeated experiment considering thousands of people playing the game, house will win !!!

GENIUS SATOSHIDICE Grin

show me which gambling games have positive ev? lol

kmtan

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I love Bitcoin

i had tried..play for fun only

roflmao129

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Didnt play satoshi dice but only won on other sites. Im very lucky.

smitelrh

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lost more than 1 btc.

b!z

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satoshi dice is boring + slow, i only tried it once or twice (and won)

monbux

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Quote from: RogerK on September 13, 2013, 09:41:33 PM

If the house wouldnt win in the long run it would loose money. Every Casino game is -EV. Always. Else the Casino would go Bankrupt. The only thing that CAN happen is that the house will have a really bad streak, that CAN happen if the investments get really big...

When that happens, they hire the mafia to take you out Roll Eyes

RogerK

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If the house wouldnt win in the long run it would loose money. Every Casino game is -EV. Always. Else the Casino would go Bankrupt. The only thing that CAN happen is that the house will have a really bad streak, that CAN happen if the investments get really big...

If someone would bet insane amounts on low Probability bets and wins, Satoshi could go broke by that

Nvm i just see that there are maximum amounts on the low probability ones..

gabu69

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DON'T PLAY THIS GAME ffs

it's pure negative EXPECTED VALUE

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/3852/9e7v.jpg

so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

either way house will always win in the long run, no matter if you win, the repeated experiment considering thousands of people playing the game, house will win !!!

GENIUS SATOSHIDICE Grin

b!z

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

Exactly!

i lost 4 BTC a six months ago on satoshi dice (that time all i had was 5 BTC - serious loss Sad

)
These days a played a bit on primedice.com (very nice service btw) and won some BTC Tongue

But seriously about gambling:
you can win on such sites only with strategy Bitcoinm was talking about. If you will keep playing for too long, eventually you will lose everything (and yes 12 losses with 50% probability looks almost impossible, but more you play, the closer this situation is Cheesy

)

GAMBLE ONLY AS MUCH COINS AS YOU CAN LOSE WITHOUT ACCUSATIONS.

I don't like primedice, I've never won anything, ever.
I know it's supposed to be "provably fair", but I've lost their free rolls during the promotion (50% game, even 75% games) maybe 25+ times and lost my own coins 10+ times too without ever winning.

Zaih

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

Exactly!

i lost 4 BTC a six months ago on satoshi dice (that time all i had was 5 BTC - serious loss Sad

)
These days a played a bit on primedice.com (very nice service btw) and won some BTC Tongue

But seriously about gambling:
you can win on such sites only with strategy Bitcoinm was talking about. If you will keep playing for too long, eventually you will lose everything (and yes 12 losses with 50% probability looks almost impossible, but more you play, the closer this situation is Cheesy

)

GAMBLE ONLY AS MUCH COINS AS YOU CAN LOSE WITHOUT ACCUSATIONS.

Gambling should always be for fun

And fun should never lead to you losing more than will make you upset. And yup, when your upset you make accusations Cheesy

luv2drnkbr

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Quote from: dooglus on May 02, 2013, 01:58:02 PM

Quote from: keatonatron on April 30, 2013, 10:09:28 PM

How do your profits go back in time???

How do you win at satoshidice if you don't have a time machine?

But seriously, since Bitcoin is distributed, and trusts in no central authority at all, the network doesn't know what time it is. We can't rely on a central time server to tell us. So the nodes tell each other what time they think it is, and each node works out how 'wrong' its own clock is based on how different it if from the times as reported by the nodes it talks to.

When a new block is received, we don't throw it away if its timestamp is earlier than the timestamp of the previous block. Maybe the previous block's timestamp was wrong, and the new block's is right. So what happens is we look back about 11 blocks, and look back 1 block, and take the average of those two timestamps. If the new block's timestamp is later than that average, it's accepted. This means that sometimes a block's timestamp is older than the previous block's timestamp, which is probably what you're seeing in the graph.

there is a logical clock protocol to fix this

CasinoBit

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I have bet about 2BTC back at their early days, they deserve their success despite their downsides. Wink

dooglus

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Quote from: keatonatron on April 30, 2013, 10:09:28 PM

How do your profits go back in time???

How do you win at satoshidice if you don't have a time machine?

But seriously, since Bitcoin is distributed, and trusts in no central authority at all, the network doesn't know what time it is. We can't rely on a central time server to tell us. So the nodes tell each other what time they think it is, and each node works out how 'wrong' its own clock is based on how different it if from the times as reported by the nodes it talks to.

When a new block is received, we don't throw it away if its timestamp is earlier than the timestamp of the previous block. Maybe the previous block's timestamp was wrong, and the new block's is right. So what happens is we look back about 11 blocks, and look back 1 block, and take the average of those two timestamps. If the new block's timestamp is later than that average, it's accepted. This means that sometimes a block's timestamp is older than the previous block's timestamp, which is probably what you're seeing in the graph.

bennybong

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Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

If only I knew lol Wink

Yeah I've won quite a bit, lost quite a bit. I was stupid to be 'playing' during the massive spike recently... 0.1 BTC was lot to bet at the time, over and over. However I'm about break even at the end of the day...

pheaonix

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http://casinobitco.in/ A+ customer support

Quote from: keatonatron on April 30, 2013, 10:09:28 PM

Quote from: WGates on April 30, 2013, 05:10:50 PM

How do your profits go back in time???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfPLcQhXpCc

WGates

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Quote from: WGates on April 30, 2013, 04:58:21 PM

I have won over 9 bitcoin in 72 hours using new progressive betting system I wrote 3 days ago. Minimum bet is .0125. Started with 4 and now over 13 at the moment. Here are the results:

https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=1KGBhwojYViF3rL7x85rmoQve7ohwaGgo9

Will keep tweaking and testing variation in Excel... hope it sustains the win rate!

I know the house has an edge... But we'll see if proper money management can lock up my profits

I am now up to 20 BTC in a few days from 4 BTC.... up $1800

keatonatron

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Jack of oh so many trades.

Quote from: WGates on April 30, 2013, 05:10:50 PM

How do your profits go back in time???

dooglus

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Quote from: Rampion on April 30, 2013, 07:33:26 PM

Yes, of course it's possible to win. That's obvious, and that's exactly the reason why "not so smart" people get sucked in and lose what they cannot afford to.

SatoshiDice is up 3,760 BTC (over $400,000) just over the month of April 2013. That's an unusually bad month for them too.

Clearly the house wins in the long run.

I post charts of SatoshiDice's profit each day, here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1990399

bit777

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I am down a couple btc.

uMMcQxCWELNzkt

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I tried it out, won on the second attempt putting me back into positives then I stopped playing, never to return. Not a fan of gambling, feel like I beat the system. Grin

dooglus

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Quote from: Rampion on April 30, 2013, 07:33:26 PM

Yes, of course it's possible to win. That's obvious, and that's exactly the reason why "not so smart" people get sucked in and lose what they cannot afford to.

I was countering this:

Quote from: giantdragon on April 25, 2013, 01:44:11 PM

I think you are smart enough to know that it is impossible to win in negative EV games!

dooglus

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Quote from: omgitsmehehe on April 30, 2013, 07:14:47 PM

I won 20BTC and quit. Atleast I think I did.... If it's not a Dice win then I have a very nice admirer

80e97e77f3c55af541c8e7a9caac852cbabcd5e2bfbd7e90e683466ce630bfa0

If you want to check feel free.

That's not a dice win. Dice wins have '1dice...' in their list of inputs.

Rampion

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Quote from: dooglus on April 30, 2013, 07:29:27 PM

Quote from: Rampion on April 30, 2013, 07:12:16 PM

Yeah, "if you're lucky enough" - that's why they call it gambling. If you play long enough, you will lose for sure. If you play only a few times, "and you are lucky enough", you may win a little. But then, is it worth it just to win a little?

I'm up about 42 BTC, and have 'retired'. It was a martingale bet that got out of hand and nearly cost me a lot more than that. I was stupid to play it, and lucky not to lose.

I'm not saying it's a good idea to gamble on negative expectation games. But I am saying it's possible to win, since I have done.

Quote from: fcmatt on April 30, 2013, 07:10:12 PM

Dooglus is a math whiz. He farts winning wagers when waking up on weekends. While weenies wish they would win but whine why? Why? Why did my wager wind up wasting my wad.

A brilliant commentary. Defying expectations, fcmatt gets his ill-informed jabberings kompletely - ah f**k it. Too hard.

Yes, of course it's possible to win. That's obvious, and that's exactly the reason why "not so smart" people get sucked in and lose what they cannot afford to.

dooglus

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Quote from: Rampion on April 30, 2013, 07:12:16 PM

Yeah, "if you're lucky enough" - that's why they call it gambling. If you play long enough, you will lose for sure. If you play only a few times, "and you are lucky enough", you may win a little. But then, is it worth it just to win a little?

I'm up about 42 BTC, and have 'retired'. It was a martingale bet that got out of hand and nearly cost me a lot more than that. I was stupid to play it, and lucky not to lose.

I'm not saying it's a good idea to gamble on negative expectation games. But I am saying it's possible to win, since I have done.

Quote from: fcmatt on April 30, 2013, 07:10:12 PM

Dooglus is a math whiz. He farts winning wagers when waking up on weekends. While weenies wish they would win but whine why? Why? Why did my wager wind up wasting my wad.

A brilliant commentary. Defying expectations, fcmatt gets his ill-informed jabberings kompletely - ah f**k it. Too hard.

omgitsmehehe

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I won 20BTC and quit. Atleast I think I did.... If it's not a Dice win then I have a very nice admirer

80e97e77f3c55af541c8e7a9caac852cbabcd5e2bfbd7e90e683466ce630bfa0

If you want to check feel free.

Rampion

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Quote from: dooglus on April 30, 2013, 07:03:24 PM

Quote from: giantdragon on April 25, 2013, 01:44:11 PM

I think you are smart enough to know that it is impossible to win in negative EV games!

Not true. I'm up at SatoshiDice. All you need is a little luck, and to quit while you're ahead.

It's impossible to stay up if you keep playing forever; eventually the negative expectation will drag you down but in the short term the 1.9% house edge is beatable if you're lucky enough.

Yeah, "if you're lucky enough" - that's why they call it gambling. If you play long enough, you will lose for sure. If you play only a few times, "and you are lucky enough", you may win a little. But then, is it worth it just to win a little?

fcmatt

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Quote from: dooglus on April 30, 2013, 07:03:24 PM

Quote from: giantdragon on April 25, 2013, 01:44:11 PM

I think you are smart enough to know that it is impossible to win in negative EV games!

Not true. I'm up at SatoshiDice. All you need is a little luck, and to quit while you're ahead.

It's impossible to stay up if you keep playing forever; eventually the negative expectation will drag you down but in the short term the 1.9% house edge is beatable if you're lucky enough.

Dooglus is a math whiz. He farts winning wagers when waking up on weekends. While weenies wish they would win but whine why? Why? Why did my wager wind up wasting my wad.

dooglus

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Activity: 2940

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Quote from: giantdragon on April 25, 2013, 01:44:11 PM

I think you are smart enough to know that it is impossible to win in negative EV games!

Not true. I'm up at SatoshiDice. All you need is a little luck, and to quit while you're ahead.

It's impossible to stay up if you keep playing forever; eventually the negative expectation will drag you down but in the short term the 1.9% house edge is beatable if you're lucky enough.

WGates

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http://bitcoingazillionaire.com/images/9ac35003bc1a811ce531471165010331.gif

WGates

newbie

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I have won over 9 bitcoin in 72 hours using new progressive betting system I wrote 3 days ago. Minimum bet is .0125. Started with 4 and now over 13 at the moment. Here are the results:

https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=1KGBhwojYViF3rL7x85rmoQve7ohwaGgo9

Will keep tweaking and testing variation in Excel... hope it sustains the win rate!

I know the house has an edge... But we'll see if proper money management can lock up my profits

Derivagral

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I know a guy who automated betting. Says he's up (not a ton mind you, but he is positive). I assume he's looking for streaks in their result generator. At least he doesn't take it too seriously I guess, knowing that the underlying strat is pretty -ev.

giantdragon

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I think you are smart enough to know that it is impossible to win in negative EV games!

keatonatron

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Jack of oh so many trades.

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

That's what I did. I'm up 0.22 BTC and I'm not playing any more Wink

Zaih

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Lost my life savings Sad

Naaaah. Lost a bitcoin or two in total. Was all in good fun though

Suushi

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Yea I have played Cheesy

I have earned a lot and I have lost a lot Cheesy

this is how it works

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

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👻

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

This is the difference between being up 30 btc vs down 120 btc.

Bitcoinm

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Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

im3w1l

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Could be interesting

Topic: Have you made money by gambling on satoshi dice? (Read 4246 times)