the true value of bitcoin is based on the cost of production.
in short: no one wants to sell at a loss, and if they do, they are idiots.
however too many people are sheep following exchanges which are all controlled by a high percentage of bots. doing small orders.
in short: sheeple following the movements of just a few hundred bitcoin being repeatedly bought and sold over and over. rather than the near 14 million actual supply.
for example.
someone else mentioned BTC-e.com so lets use that.
out of 42 orders showing. 39 are less than 2btc. leaving just 2-3 orders (normally owned by just one person) being super large in comparison, to control the direction of trades
we are long past the days when 500 bitcoins were being traded every 15 minutes.
we are long past the days when people trusted exchanges to hold large hoards.
we are long past the day where we should be using these crappy exchanges as value indicators.