Topic: Here is a real bubble - gold (Read 7165 times)

Yup. And who knows what the total supply of gold can be? We cant know for certain. Any new gold mining discoveries can modify the price, with BTC it's fixed and transparent, whereas we do not know what goes inside the inner circles of top gold mining business, wh
ereas everyhing it's clear in the blockchain with BTC.

Fiat currency is in bubble. Market always price real asset at fair value.

If there is a buyer for something, then there is a value for it.

tetap saja ada perbedaan antara bitcoin dan emas, dan kedua nya memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangan, sekarang tergantung bagaimana kita mengelola keduanya di dalam kehidupan kita, terutama dalam berbisnis, emas memiiki kelebihan lebih stabil dibanding kan dengan bticoin dan lebih mudah diterima sebagai alat pembayaran, sedang bitcoin hanya tempat tertentu yang menerima bitcoin sebagai alat pembayaran, dan sebelumnya harus di tukar dahulu, tentu saja sangat memerlukan koneksi internet ...

Find me SOMETHING that isnt a bubble. Its all about when it will pop. And BTC hasn't even started.

It is not merchants who turn their bitcoins into fiat, it is bitpay doing this. However bitpay could build up a bitcoin reserve and pay merchants using their own money when exchange rate is low, and sell the bitcoins when exchange rate is high. Or, they could find some large investors and institutions to privately trade without going through an exchange

Not exactly, you can not measure the inflation by production vs total supply, since most of the gold/coins are hoarded and never goes into circulation, the price is only decided by the daily market supply and demand (otherwise now everything in US should have 4x price since FED has increased the total money supply by 4 fold since 2008, in reality there is almost none inflation because most of those money went into banker's pocket and never circulated)

Currently bitcoin has a production rate of 3600 coins a day, that is fixed, no one can change that, even if it jumps in a 10 day period, the difficulty will increase to maintain that rate. But for gold, you can increase the amount of mine around the globe to dig out more and more gold every day. The total gold on earth has a fixed supply, but so far human has only mined a very small percentage of it near the surface of the earth and I doubt that it will continue, since the use of gold is getting less and less, many modern jewelry use sophisticated coating technology that does not depends on gold but provide much better looking

Anyway gold's price is mostly decided by the mining cost, but it is not the cost of digging gold rose that high, it is the cost measured in fiat money rose, which means fiat money are losing value quickly

Well what happens when the merchants turn their bitcoins into fiat? More fiat would need to flow back into the system from people like you and me.

Gold cannot be a bubble for now. Earth has a limited supply of gold, which sooner or later will be all mined. If we ever get to mine in the outer space, this may change.

Instead, the biggest bubble and scam in history is fiat.
Just imagine: some cheap paper or plastic the politicians decide what value it holds. And the value is tied to... actually nothing.

The ones that do inflation and deflation is fiat. ....Just my 5 cents.

That's great, I was just talking about inflation, not about purchasing power. Inflation only has to do with supply, but then we have to consider demand. And I also expect bitcoin demand to keep increasing a lot during the next years.

yes but the amount of goods and services offered in exchange for bitcoin is growing much faster than 10% per year.
http://www.bitcoinpulse.com/ the number of venues accepting bitcoin is increasing at around 1.8% per week for the last 180 days.

Gold inflation is still much lower than bitcoin's. Gold supply is increased only by about 1.5% per year, while for the next years we are still going to have 10% more bitcoins per year: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chart-bitcoin-inflation-vs-time-130619

Everything is a bubble, even universe. BTC will grow forever too 

The guy with the weapons wins hands down over the guy with the food. Hopefully, we don't reach that scenario

Fiat is in bubble. The reason why gold price, when price in USD is just as volatile as bitcoin.

Someone should plot a bitcoin/gold pair and compare it bitcoin/usd.

Between gold and bitcoin I will surely choose the last one, but I would also buy a small percent of the precious metal.

Still saying BTC is better than gold.

Gold = cant carry it around the world like its nothing
BTC = can move money instantly all over the globe

On the classic "oh but if the internet goes down then gold is #1 for sure and BTC is worthless" scenareo, which is unrealistic: IF internet goes down, humanity goes down, thats where we are today, and thats how important the internet is.


On such a scenareo, unfortunately, the guy with the weapons and food wins, not the nice merchant that may want to exchange you some gold for goods.

Bingo! If you look at the M2 and M3 then you see what really is a bubble and what gets bloated!

The real bubble is fiat currency. All assets class will be lifted by the tide.

And a lot of people would wear jewellery made of it, no matter what.

You would likely want to invest in a lot more then a USB stick to keep $1 million worth of BTC safe, likely a similar amount you would spend on keeping $1 million worth of gold safe.

The only real reason that gold is such a good store of value is because it has been around and used for so long.

The 'store of value' attribute refers to the commodity maintaining its value over a period of time, and not ease of storage.
The $1MM in your usb stick, can lose its value by half over a short period; something gold is unlikely to do.

Gold is still a good store of value, not necessarily a currency (yes, it WAS currency in the old days).
But people will surely go after btc rather than gold. Why not? One can store $1 million worth of btc just in a USB stick.

You always have alternatives - gold, bitcoin,...
As long as its value doesn't plummet due to inflation, it is fine.

Whatever you want to say - gold will always have high value. As for bitcoin - no one knows. It's speculation mostly.

You could potentially test your RNG prior to using it for generating a private key to make sure it really is random.

If you were to diversify your backups of your wallet in both location and method of backing up then it would be unlikely that all your backups would be lost.

As long as you don't use a brain wallet a thief would either need physical access to the harddrive/usb/paper that holds your wallet or digital access to the cloud service provider that holds your backup.

It would not be possible to seize someone's bitcoin without the private key. It is possible for gold to be seized.

Gold is only good in a few very specific scenarios, namely huge war that wipes out the government and internet and maybe you could use a gold coin to buy a few pieces of second hand bread or something. In situations like that though, I'd prefer to keep lots of ammo, canned food, seeds, medical kits, etc.

Why don't you put graph inside?

I think that securing bitcoin is actually more difficult than securing gold. There are a lot more possible ways to loose your bitcoin (lost passwords, hardware failure, hacking, weak random number generator, social engineering) than loosing the gold. Bitcoin can even get stolen without the thief needing to be at the same place with the victim. So I think the non-physical nature of bitcoin actually adds risk. The less tech-savvy a person is, the higher the risk of loss.

And that's good or bad stuff for Bitcoin ? If my mind serves me well current prices of the main crypto are making the mining task some hard and not so

profitable...

Value of an asset depends on faith in him. Gold ingrained as a truly valuable asset. But besides its value at the point that it is rare in nature and limited. Therefore, gold is by definition no bubble unlike fiat mk limited amount.

Gold has a recognized limited supply. All the gold ever mined in history would fit in a cube block the size of a tennis court. It is getting even harder to find as the easy spots are thought to have been found. But there could in theory be a new big find which would depress the price.

Bitcoin supply is strictly defined. At a year, likely long after our death, bitcoin will finally reach the end of its new issuance in 2140. That is “hard-coded” into the currency. The rate at which it will be spawned into the system is also predictable. We can write contracts based on the known amount that will be issued. There is no need for speculation forward contracts. It is in much more restrictive limited supply than gold.

Agreed it has a long way to go but look how far it travels and how quickly

I'm expecting to see alotta ground cover over the next few years

It isn't easy to secure bitcoin. Cold storage can have corruption, paper wallet can get eating by insect.

Gold is valuable because the annunaki used it as money on nbiru and continue to steal it from earth in giant spaceships, or perhaps because bodies encased in it can be smuggled out of the Earth's galactic quarantine.  Or maybe it is the health benefits of mother earth's essence.  

OK sorry but my point is we need some more creative stories about bitcoin.  Get to work please church of satoshi founders!!  

But recently there have been alot of new gold mines discovered with new technology, so perhaps the price is being manipulated

Both bitcoin and gold can be stolen, however it is much easier to secure bitcoin then it is to secure gold. Not only that but if you know that your gold is close to being compromised then if you try to move your gold your chances of it being stolen are higher while if your bitcoin was close to being stolen then you could likely solve move attacks by simply moving your bitcoin to another address; both scenarios assume that you are aware of the pending attack.

dude regardless of which, gold will just be as valuable as bitcoin.

Its been that way for so long, for original monetary system. Only because its universally accepted.

What about the supply of fiat dollar?
 

I'm looking at grapsh and i cant see any drop that is any way close to drop BTC had....few times....
And no i dont have any gold, and yes i have BTC....but that wont make me lie to myself about things just to make me feel better about my choice.

And bitcoin can't be stolen, right?

Sorry, but I think a lot of the gold bashing in this thread is plain stupid. In reality bitcoin was modeled after gold (and other precious metals), that's why the generation process of bitcoins is called "mining".

Gold is physical, bitcoin is not. There are advantages and disadvantages for both cases.

The purchasing power of gold pretty much stays the same longterm. If gold value is expressed in fiat, it is mostly an indicator of fiat inflation. I predict that bitcoin will share the same properties once it has reached the saturation point of adoption (until then it will rise in value substantially).

Very good discussion about gold. It's really important to know bitcoin is better than gold. When you have gold you're scared of robbing. bitcoin make you safe in this regards.

gold is worse since you have to kept them safe, everyone can robb you the gold.

Found this article, it is worth reading all the way; think about, it could help us find the real stable growth pattern... but remember we do not know what all the factors are for Bitcoin, so just consider it, study it, discuss it, the group will find a better answer then anyone of us.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/20/what-can-behavioral-finance-can-teach-us-about-bubbles/

wow, I should have read that last page.

but what about the A.I. traders & algorithm traders? These algorithm based traders are dangerous could they of had something to do with it? I mean if a whole bunch of them are triggered in just the right way, all of them will go off one by one and they won't start buying until the price reaches a specific level to trigger them all up in sequence again.

This could be a interesting read, hell I've heard a few monitor the news to figure out social movements to create more effective trades; Just imagine Watson the supercomputer that beat Ken Jennings running the stock market; one for each broker.

http://www.randomhouse.com.au/books/scott-patterson/dark-pools-the-rise-of-ai-trading-machines-and-the-looming-threat-to-wall-street-9781847940988.aspx

anyone read this hilarious story about a pricing algorithm that made a book sold on ebay for several million dollars.. yet only $17 dollars at the store? Do they really understand what they are doing?

http://www.michaeleisen.org/blog/?p=358

It could be interesting, cause when you start using pure math to predict a system... just gotta get enough of them, leave humans out of the loop and boom! The trades are no longer meaning/utility based or based on any semblance of reality the math itself begins to control the movement of the markets in completely counter intuitive ways.

Even if we assume that there is no government to support them, paper money will still be both hard to fake and easy to handle.

9/11 was WTC.  3/11 was Fukushima.  Perhaps 4/11 is this.

Well, here is the story of the crooks from the recent gold/silver crash (mostly taken from a podcast mentioned below):

On Friday in the morning hours, someone shorted 3.4 million ounces (100 tons)of June Futures. This brought the spot price of gold down to the $1540 support level. When gold goes below this level (bull market support level) algorithmic trades start to kick in. This started a massive selloff in the paper markets. On Monday this spread to the Asian markets and American markets later. This was followed by 300 tons later on Friday. It seems to have been coming from Merrill Lynch (their floor team).

So, no actual gold was exchanging hands - It was all Naked Shorts with the intention of bringing the price down. My question is WHY do it now??? Yeah, the bond markets look ready to pop and currencies all over are in trouble. Lesser of two evils? No, pure evil.

Andrew McGuire (whistle blower) blew the whistle on JPMorgan a couple of years ago, regarding their manipulation of the silver markets. He told the CFTC and even told them the specific date JPMorgan would crash the market to cover their huge short position. It happened exactly as he said, date was spot on, confirming what he had told the Commodity Futures Trade Commission! They did nothing about it!

Now, the same whilstle blower on April 12th came out and said the Federal Reserves agents were the ones hitting the markets with 500 tons of naked shorts. He was right again and it looks like the Fed is involved. They are trying to keep the lid on precious metals, trying to make people think the dollar is ok, when it is doing terrible.

Yeah, the economy is good and markets are strong... criminals. We are close to something happening people. These bankers are really getting aggressive lately. Right after the Cyprus thing happened no less.

Great podcast on this - http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-648-radio-liberty-carnage-in-the-markets/

I don't think I'll be able to use Bitcoins or gold postmortem no

Call me a nut.. but talking about coincidence.

Cause:
At the 11th of April there was a meeting at the white house with Obama and members of the Financial Services Forum.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/04/11/full-list-of-bankers-at-white-house-meeting-thursday
http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2013/04/10/obama-schedule-thursday-april-11-2013/

Effect:
And look what happend at the 11th.

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

EPIC

It's actually 4000 years old already.  

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/07/21/136474556/are-we-in-a-gold-bubble

There is no comparison between bitcoin and precious metals.
Simply put you need precious metals to mine bitcoins, you dont need bitcoins to mine precious metals. (copper for electric motor, gold contacts for pcb, silver second most used commodity in the world)
So 100% dependable one way 0% the other way which means no meaningful debate.
Bitcoin will never have a several thousand year history i say it wont make 100 year of usage. The world is moving way to fast for it
With this latest paper gold sell off the demand for physical stuff is sky-rocketing, most physical gold, silver out of stock  

+10

I started buying gold at about $1100. This latest dip is another great time to buy.

The question is.. which latest dip is better to buy, gold or bitcoin?

+10!

If you're asking what'll be used after total upheaval in the world, including destruction of our infrastructure, it sure as hell won't be bitcoins. It might be gold. Might be iron. Certainly, gold has thousands of years of history of being used without modern infrastructure.

Ask your self which kind of money still can be used after this circumstances:

-fire
-natural disasters
-revolutions
-financial crisis
-war (including electro magnetic pulse and destroyed infrastructure)
-death
-several generations

Right, because gold jewelry isn't popular.

Gold was used as an actual currency for thousands of years. It was (and still is) too risky for people to carry gold around.

"Bitcoin only has value based on the assumption that people will want to use it."

Exactly.  Unlike gold, people will want to use Bitcoin as an actual currency.

I can buy pretty much anything on the internet using bitcoins, either directly or through an intermediate service. For the sellers, they get paid immediately, so it's good for them too. I don't know of any website that accepts gold as currency. I suppose I could sell a gold coin to a coin dealer for 10% that what the going market rate is, wait for the check to clear, then transfer that cash to paypal, etc. The point is that gold/silver is not a currency for the average person. Store of value, maybe. But guns and bullets meet almost all of the same criteria to be a suitable storage of value.

It's not the same. Once gold was appreciated because it was shiny. Today it is known as one of the best  electrical conductors and one of the rarest metals on the planet.
The real question shoud be "Why silver price is so low?".

It's funny how people like to point to the history of gold's back in ancient times as if it means anything at all. For almost all of the last 6000 years horses were the most trusted form of land transportation, and we all know how that worked out.

There is simply not comparison between gold and bitcoin.  The thousands of years of acceptance of gold do not enter into the equation.

What enters is reality like paper gold, GLD, options, long and short positions, institutional holdings.  These moderate the price and swings in the price.

And STILL it drops 20% very rapidly.

Obviously, these factors do not currently affect BTC market price.

Very interesting.

Bitcoin has only 4 years history and only limited amount of participants, while gold has several thousand years history and accepted by most of the people on the planet, but it still crashed 20% in one day, it is obvious which one has the potential

APMEX has 1 gram assays for 13 over spot?

Wait nvmd just did the math.  That is some juice.

Gold is a perfect example of value backed by consensus, although gold don't have a lot of use, but several thousand years of history give it enough consensus as a store of value. And this value does correlate to manufacturing cost somehow

+1

not sure I agree 100% on the netscape thing after all that is where we got firefox from... ahhh I see now

+ another 1

Buying opportunity for me!!!111

Thank you for this. Comedy GOLDBTC

Quite right, the story is the same all round, sold out / high premiums.

People it's not a bubble.

A lot of people bought 10 year options for gold which expired that year. And a lot of investors from 2008 closed their positions.

It is also possible that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) is dumping gold again to save the Euro.

But the more gold falls -the better. Creates buy opportunities.

For now the situation in Europe and the world is stable, but if it gets out of control gold will again become a safehaven, therefore if it falls below 1000$ I'd sell my home to open a position with the money.

I've noticed the main online dealers are backed up or out of stock, folks buying like crazy. My local coinshop the same. Not only that, whatever is available they are asking double the juice.

They are dumping paper gold to decrease the price and thus "strengthen"  the USD.
It's just paper gold that are being dumped, the low price are making people buying physical as crazy.

When bitcoin loses 85% of its 'value' in a few days, it's a great time to buy. When gold dips 20% after riding high for a few yrs, it's a ponzi scheme. Seems reasonable 

Sorry wiseguys, but bitcoin has a loooong way to go before it approaches gold as real money. I have thousands of years to back me up. Bitcoin was invented last week and will likely end up being the netscape or myspace of alternative currencies.

Wow, that took a dive...

Sounds like a ponzi to me.

It's not even as if many shops will accept it as currency.

Does anyone even know the where the guy is who first figured out how it works, or how to mine it, or why anyone should believe it has any value whatsoever?

Plus, I read somewhere that drug dealers and terrorists use it.










[Edit: not trolling gold. Gold good. Just showing dumb attacks on bitcoin are dumb.]

In one day it lost all the gain from last 2 years, now people will understand why bitcoin is better than gold 

The gold production increased, there are huge amount of gold mined out from china during the last year. But for bitcoin production rate is always fixed