Topic: Here's how mass adoption plays out in my opinion (Read 2972 times)

we seen that bitcoin to pass to 1000$ was impossible into 2013 and the markets will dictate the value of demand and suply but ok the 3000 for 2020 i can figure out as good

Damn I like the OP's estimated/projected price progression. If in reality we only get 1/2 or even 1/4 of his predicted price's I'd be a very happy man.

Yes the peak of $502 happened in sudden manner to shock many bitcoiners. I too believe this kind of sweet shocks will continue this December too may be till halving we can expect these kind of events. The price raise wave has no reason to settle down it will be keeping on bouncing even after halving.

I guess one of those wonders already happened in 2015 itself.
Till halving, I too believe people will keep on buying bitcoins for their own reasons. It may extend after halving also. Because once the up wave gets triggered it would take more time to get settle down.

Yes 2016 is the year for bitcoin is going to bring us many wonderful things. The halving would be a one of the reasons for that. Comparing to 2013 spikes, bitcoin is now in more stronger with more people are adopting it and using it for day to day life.

I feel like we're still so far away from $1000. Bitcoin hasn't raised in value that much this year as you are precidicting it will happen next year. I think we'll just have to wait and see what next year will bring, if you are correct about 2016 that's when I'll believe we can reach those numbers in the future.

Looking at that often used chart showing the depreciation of the USD over many decades, I sometimes wonder if we'll see the reverse of that for BTC.  I'll be long gone before that would occur if that were the timeline to consider.

Personally I don't see domination, but more something like Linux adoption (excluding Android which skews the statistics hugely).

I do agree with the general idea of your post but not the price estimations, I think the rise will be much slower but consistent rather than huge jumps of price, it all depends on how the market sees bitcoin and how fast the adoption actually works.

I don't think it's that easy Hector, but we'll see, maybe you're off by a few decades.

Let's if we even breach $600 in 2016

Boy that rant was hard to follow, but OK, we'll check back at each milestone.

I don't understand how you imagine this figures you give but anyone can make such "predictions" which don't want nothing to be made. Only to write the first figures who come in mind. And everything is made. Not only the figures but even words. Writing words that may have "meaning" but are only words without any fact in which are based, can be made even from a boy 15 years old. Until the above are only discussion between friends there are nothing bad. maximum can be some laugh or some joke and everything will be closed there. But that pretending to give exact predictions in precise figures for things that, having in mind their nature and other factors, it is hard even to do actual analyses which can help to give short term predictions or better, opinions, mean, according to me, only desire to create a thread and to have the name on it as its author.

Anyhow I may have wrong and you right. Lets leave the time to verify the words of everyone of us.If we will be again here in bitcointalk and you will have right, put again this thread in the first page of this section and I will agree publicly that had wrong in doing this post and writing such words about your predictions and about you. 

The market will always find its way. If the participants(user!) move over to bigger blocks, no one cares what the old chain remaining miners think. They will immediately switch over to bigger blocks, the moment they realize that they can't sell their coins on the exchange because of an not accepted blockchain.

In reality they have no power, because they have to obey to the market to stay profitable.

It is going to scale more than it should when the time for this comes, don't worry! Right at this moment, blocks are only half full. When they approach 80% of fulness, everybody will scramble to raise the block size limit, no worries. Nothing works better than fear in my opinion!

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

if you talk about the block limit issue, then it can scale easily by hard forking it each time is needed, or via an algorithm that does it for you, integrated in the client

Is that why you bailed at $10? Are you "all in" when capacity doubles or quadruples?

You forget one problem for this mass adoption... It won't happen because bitcoin doesn't scale.

Like the boy who cried wolf too often its getting harder to believe each time they say they 'might' raise rates.

Very true, actually. As long as Bitcoin is purely p&d vehicle, as  many Buffet-wannabies on this forum wish, there will be no broader market adoption.
The average non-Bitcoin-literate Joe does not to play casino when it comes to his/her savings, grocery money, etc.
As long as Bitcoin stays in this vicious circle of pumping as quickly as possible on the speculative news this does not go anywhere.

That is not currect!
In Germany it's only the Commerzbank as one of the giants.And they only have negative interest rates for big business accounts with high deposits.But not for private accounts. Two other small banks are WGZ Bank and Skatbank.But also only neg interest rates for business accounts.

Regarding Switzerland I have no idea.

Many Swiss and German banks have already introduced negative interest rates! Stories about this are all over the Internet.

I think that what these countries did is just a beginning! Soon enough other countries and other banks will follow the same model!

Afbitcoins has a point. The monetary system is very sick and negative interest rates are already in effect. The banks have been unable to push these negative interest rates to the customer yet but they actually exist (=they have to pay interest to the central banks for owning money) and it is hurting a lot of banks mid to long-term.

I'm afraid we will see more clinging to the old system for a considerable amount of time, interest rates having to go back up to stabilize the status-quo. The Fed will likely raise interests very soon by a fraction of a percentage point just to signal that the system is not bricked. The European Central bank however wants to do even more quantative easing as long as Draghi doesn't wake up to a reality where either customers have to pay interest for their deposits, which will cause everyone to do a bank-run and hold their otherwise devaluing money in cash OR the banks will need to be rescued again sooner or later as their profits are drowning due to sustained interest payments to the ECB/FED.

all this is just speculation on the adoption, no different than speculating on the value, as i see it, there are two ways to grow

via big investors that begin to pump the price and then little fish will follow, and so by creating a bigger market cap you have more chances to attract everybody else

or simply demand increase because fiat begin to be not trustworthy anymore, because of the crisis, and banks begin to fall, otherwise if the fiat system will remain intact, i see no reason for average joe to shift for bitcoin

Oh wow

[/quote]

Every point you have made has been shown to be not simply false, but hilariously, can't.make.this.shit.up wrong.
How is this sidetracking?
As far as banning cash: If it comes to that, you can be certain that bitcoin will be outlawed long before that.
[/quote]

LOL

Bitcoin "adoption" will start with speculative attacks against weak currencies. People will borrow their weak national currencies and sell it for bitcoin. The weak currencies will get even weaker due to increased supply until the weak currencies are destroyed.

Speculative attack will break peg after peg and kill weak currency after weak currency. Central banks will be forced to add bitcoin to their reserves out of fear that bitcoin could grow big enough to threaten major currencies.

This will only make bitcoin go higher. Once bitcoin reaches critical mass, the speculative attacks will begin.

There is no guarantee it will be adopted with stability. It would make things much easier. At least people will no run scared because their money has just lost 30% of it's value.

Currently we in a nice and good moment. Most need investors should have seen an increase after we reach our low (200 dollar).

Lets be realistic.
Bitcoin will be adopted, when its price stabilizes. The reason it is not adopted is because its price very unstable.

More adoption will cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket. This in turn will cause panic as people will think Bitcoin has become volatile again, or they may start to look at Bitcoin as a huge bubble. This will decrease the acceptance of the currency again and will in turn cause Bitcoin to crash all the way down to pennies and dimes.  

The ideas many users are dreaming about on this forum are far-fetched and very unlikely to happen, that does not mean it WON'T happen...it's just very unlikely.

As far as I know bitcoin is not illegal yet even though it seems you'd like it to be. Anyway, pointless arguing with someone like you and I can no longer be bothered my point has been made.

Ah rarity coin, you deleted your comment did you. Probably a wise move.

Anyway too late I saw it. They can ban bitcoin all they want by the way but it is decentralised so they can't stop it or stop people using it.

Lets start with my last point then. Why is it hilariously wrong that banks are seriously discussing negative interest rates and banning cash ?

less than one minute of googling comes up with these kinds of articles in mainstream media ..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html?WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21589128

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3329324/Swiss-bank-ABS-hit-savers-negative-rates.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/is-a-cashless-society-really-on-the-cards-8714651.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/denmark-moves-closer-to-a-cashless-society-10231995.html

So why am I hilariously wrong ?

This is all very interesting sidetrack but my main point is that bitcoin is a very attractive alternative for storing value when banks start imposing negative interest rates and banning cash. Which they must do in order to try and prop up their failing monetary system.
 

Not sure if joking.

Without investing in a formal study, I'll hazard a guess: The average life expectancy of a cryptocurrency is about a week.
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=159.0

The Average Life Expectancy For A Fiat Currency Is 27 Years ... Every 30 To 40 Years The Reigning Monetary System Fails And Has To Be Retooled

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-for-fiat.html

That's likely to happen if a subject about bitcoin will be included at school but anyway I look at it it's not possible. There are too many things to consider, if it's a threat to a government control especially financially, they will surely find a way of controlling it. Like maybe cutting all of your internet connections....  

ok i grant that devaluing money currency has gone on longer than 1971, but if chart went back to the days before central banking I'm betting you would see stable prices i was referring to. Fed was created in 1913.

Right.
http://s12.postimg.org/5t963n34d/Capture.png
Quote post to see chart

Throughout my lifetime the worlds monetary system has been a system of unbacked debt based money. We are quite unique living in a world where money devalues constantly, generations before us used to enjoy stable prices that lasted their lifetimes.

But cracks are starting to appear in this system which is unsustainable and must end. So far they are papering over it, propping it up and trying to keep it going  but even so the day of reckoning is coming. Every country on earth is heavily indebted to banks, and the debt growing bigger and bigger in unsustainable fashion. It is impossible to pay back the debt because all the money would also disappear with it. The debt literally is our money used in day to day transactions. Stated another way the money in your bank is someones debt it is not representing an asset somewhere. It must grow because the interest on debts which have gone before is still there needing payment.

Look at all the talk today about zero interest rates not being enough! Realise what this means. They are forced into a corner, to keep it going they will need more repression, they will need negative interest rates. They will need to ban cash. Clearly this will meet huge resistance, especially when things like bitcoin exist which people can flee to.

I guess my point is that capital controls becoming more and more restrictive will make decentralised, bitcoin look more and more peachy.

We may not get a gradual migration of banks to bitcoin but a flood of people using it as the fiat system goes into death throes.

These things can happen quickly, the world was gold backed then one day in 1971 suddenly it wasn't.





 

Security will greatly improve with the rise of decentralized internet making hacking a thing of the past.

If bitcoin becomes #1 currency then banks will go bankrupt.
Banks cannot provide loans on bitcoin. They need IOYs and thus fiat.
Governments can't operate without loans.
Small startups an companies neither.
Nobody can help you if you het robbed.
Nobody can force you to pay your debts.


Example in 100% bitcoin world: Terrorists or hackers could steal all the bitcoin of the US and cripple them into the stoneage.

Bitcoin has its uses but #1 currency in a human society will fail without a rigorous cultural revolution.

Your scenario looks really nice but something tells me that banks will stick with their private blockchains as long as they are working for them, as they give them most of control. They will drop their private blockchains just when they see no one is using them and consequently this no usage will be started by the ordinary people and companies which will realize how much stronger and more powerful real decentralized blockchain like Bitcoin really is, over these private, bank owned blockchains!

My insane prediction is that in 2036 the primary source of revenue from JP Morgan will be from bitcoin mining operations

In my scenario, banks will be significantly disrupted.  However at first they will embrace the blockchain because they can cut so much overhead and make tons of money now.  Eventually bitcoin will kill them as it should.  This might sound crazy but I foresee securing the blockchain with mining could be the only thing some of these big banks are left with.

I can agree for what comes to the 2016 year however I can't be sure about the others , without mentioning the fact that we are actually in a war with the banks and the media who makes Bitcoin look bad ... really bad ! So unless we win that war , we are not going anywhere if you ask me .

this look more stable than the theory of "one rich guy start a pump and average joe start investing in to ride the wave", but at the same time bitcoin and banks are not friends, and they are still very concentrated with their own blockchain

not to mention that some banks are started like in russia, which will hinder the adoption...i don't know for sure about your value estimation, but i'm also in the side of thinking that the enxt year is the right year to have a new ath

Hmmm price-wise I would like to see this becoming reality. It is "a bit" optimistic but I will take it.
Regarding the banks I can not see them accepting Bitcoin in any way or see them becoming miners and supporting to secure the blockchain.
If banks to start becoming miners, damn it that should be a big big sign of alert!!

Yes I fixed it.

Why has the price dropped in 2036? Was this a typo?

I also think that banks and financial institutions will become the largest miners of bitcoin as they do their part to ensure th security of the blockchain.

Banks and financial institutions finally realize that the most robust and secure blockchain is the bitcoin blockchain and begin using it as the backbone of our financial system.  SO this gives Bitcoin value as the token that rewards miners to secure the blockchain.  

Once Bitcoin has a clear value and purpose, wealthy investors will  start to park cash in Bitcoin as a store of value due to it's deflationary nature.  Then more and more people will store money in Bitcoin as a replacement for gold.  

Then merchants will start to want to make it easier for people to spend all of that money they have stored in Bitcoin so then the wave of merchant adoption will happen.  Then once you can spend bitcoin almost anywhere, more and more people will start to use it as their currency.  Then once the rest of the idiots who are still left see the ease of use of bitcoin and watch their fiat currencies inflating to them moon, the remaining people will switch over.

I predict that this entire cycle will take 20 years with many peaks and valleys in the price per bitcoin until then.  With halving approaching and ALL of the banks now working very hard to learn about the blockchain and bitcoin right now the price looks ready to start a new bubble.  

2016:  $1,450.00 per bitcoin
2017:  $2,200.00 per bitcoin
2020:  $7,100.00 per bitcoin
2025:  $45,000.00 per bitcoin
2030:  $225,000.00 per bitcoin
2036:  $1,700,000.00 per bitcoin