Topic: High tx fee has historically marked the sell-off. Is this time different?? (Read 202 times)

Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

Yeah I could notice that. Highest fee for priority is now between 5-7$ depending on the setting and speed you want. Like you said I also don't believe that high fees was the reason for sell off because even doing that then requires high fee processing. It was normal for a drop to complete, price has started dropping from two months back before ordinal issues but is getting weigh better now and the congestion is clearing up.

Didn’t see the fees as the reason for the drop, most probably its more about the price trend where the resistance are stronger over the buyers, and the corrections are anticipated by many. The sell off are because of the market sentiment and the network becomes congested because of that issue, fees are just the concern if you’re selling your holdings and take the profit out in the market, other network are still safe from this.

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

OP, no.

Crashes didn't occur because tx fees went up. Tx fees went up and crashes occurred because of the mania phase of the bull market coming and then ending.

The bear market just ended two months ago. Bull market will continue for another 2 to 2.5 years. A spam attack on Bitcoin that lasted like 2 days has nothing to do with historical end-of-bullrun crashes. At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

You're using data in entirely the wrong way here to ask if a crash is coming.

with how he see things may affect how he will be holding his coins. this is why people have different approach on this market, how they look at this market and how they are holding up.
as we have seen, the tx fees subside down a lot. the mempool is seemingly back to normal again.

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on May 21, 2023, 04:16:42 PM

Quote from: fzkto on May 21, 2023, 02:52:16 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

Yeah I could notice that. Highest fee for priority is now between 5-7$ depending on the setting and speed you want. Like you said I also don't believe that high fees was the reason for sell off because even doing that then requires high fee processing. It was normal for a drop to complete, price has started dropping from two months back before ordinal issues but is getting weigh better now and the congestion is clearing up.

Still, the increased commissions coincided with the price drop. Now the mem pool is not too busy and the price is fine again.

Yes the mempool has cleared out somewhat, but doesn't look fine to me in the bullish sense. Price is turning $27K that was previous support for around 2 months into new resistance and struggling to find support from the 200 WMA around $26K. So if anything, you could argue that the decreased usage in Bitcoin has caused price to struggle to move higher, but I wouldn't bother to make such an argument myself as price is simply correcting to where there is volume support that starts around $25K with the bulk of it around $23K. Regardless of transaction fees, this would of happened regardless imo.

I dont see the relevance about the fees is soaring high and making that kind of correlation in speaking whether we would be having a bearish run or bullish one. We do have that recent Ordinal
issue or condition on which it did really make out that clogged into the network. Basing up on chartings then it wasnt really that affected that much since the price isnt really that moving
on huge gaps or really off the charts.It do rather slows out on the movement. On the time that the price is stagnant on 27+ and if it do goes below on the line but the movement
or volatility isnt really that much on that time.

The fees now is really going back to normal, although it isnt really that sitting around 1-10 sats/byte at least but it is really better rather than on paying up $10
per transaction. Its not something talking about sell off on this time because Bitcoin cant really be totally be just that predictable movement since in the first place.

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Quote from: fzkto on May 21, 2023, 02:52:16 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

Yeah I could notice that. Highest fee for priority is now between 5-7$ depending on the setting and speed you want. Like you said I also don't believe that high fees was the reason for sell off because even doing that then requires high fee processing. It was normal for a drop to complete, price has started dropping from two months back before ordinal issues but is getting weigh better now and the congestion is clearing up.

Still, the increased commissions coincided with the price drop. Now the mem pool is not too busy and the price is fine again.

Yes the mempool has cleared out somewhat, but doesn't look fine to me in the bullish sense. Price is turning $27K that was previous support for around 2 months into new resistance and struggling to find support from the 200 WMA around $26K. So if anything, you could argue that the decreased usage in Bitcoin has caused price to struggle to move higher, but I wouldn't bother to make such an argument myself as price is simply correcting to where there is volume support that starts around $25K with the bulk of it around $23K. Regardless of transaction fees, this would of happened regardless imo.

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

Yeah I could notice that. Highest fee for priority is now between 5-7$ depending on the setting and speed you want. Like you said I also don't believe that high fees was the reason for sell off because even doing that then requires high fee processing. It was normal for a drop to complete, price has started dropping from two months back before ordinal issues but is getting weigh better now and the congestion is clearing up.

Still, the increased commissions coincided with the price drop. Now the mem pool is not too busy and the price is fine again. But the whole BRC-20 situation is not over, so I would not hope that the mem pool will be the same as before and we will have to pay high commissions for a long time to come. There is a feeling that this is done on purpose because bitcoin tokens are useless trash.

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

OP, no.

Crashes didn't occur because tx fees went up. Tx fees went up and crashes occurred because of the mania phase of the bull market coming and then ending.

I'm glad someone recognises the obvious. As I already said in this thread, the time-frames don't much up for high fees and a sell-off. Price has continued to rise during high fee periods as well as correct during lower fee periods. If we were to ignore the fees, it'd be hardly surprising to see price correcting after a 100% rise at the $30K resistance level, that is not only a 1-year resistance level, but also acted as support for 18 months prior to this. It's seems obvious that this is a lot more significant than the cost of transactions affecting price. There's instead about 2.5 years worth of price history that's a lot more relevant.

Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

Exactly. It's been over a week since fees are clearing for around $1 fee (26/27 sats/vB) within a few hours, which seems entirely reasonable to me. Notably price has recovered since...

Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

You're using data in entirely the wrong way here to ask if a crash is coming.

This.

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 21, 2023, 02:18:30 AM

At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

Yeah I could notice that. Highest fee for priority is now between 5-7$ depending on the setting and speed you want. Like you said I also don't believe that high fees was the reason for sell off because even doing that then requires high fee processing. It was normal for a drop to complete, price has started dropping from two months back before ordinal issues but is getting weigh better now and the congestion is clearing up.

thecodebear

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OP, no.

Crashes didn't occur because tx fees went up. Tx fees went up and crashes occurred because of the mania phase of the bull market coming and then ending.

The bear market just ended two months ago. Bull market will continue for another 2 to 2.5 years. A spam attack on Bitcoin that lasted like 2 days has nothing to do with historical end-of-bullrun crashes. At tx fees have been back to $1-$2 for a whlie now.

You're using data in entirely the wrong way here to ask if a crash is coming.

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Quote from: Husires on May 14, 2023, 03:06:13 AM

What happened was repeated 3 times, and those times were related to the end of a cycle or the beginning of a price cycle, and therefore it is logical to understand that its impact was bad on prices by leading to a correction, but it is wrong to rely on it as a long-term influence.
At the end of 2017 when the fees went up, the price of bitcoin was much higher than it was at the beginning of the year. Likewise, the same thing in the middle of the year 2022.

As far as we can conclude that high fees mean that a short-term correction is expected, but it does not tell us anything long-term.

There is a small problem now is that we do not know whether the increase in fees will be instantaneous or sustainable?

We seems to be back to "normal", not the 1 sat/vB transaction fees, but I think it will be like 10 sat/vb or higher now. I know, it's has balloon so much and we all know who is the culprit. And as you questioned it, will it be sustainable? or the bitcoin core dev team will do something again similar to 2017 debates and what not.

And we are not even in the bull run yet, so just imagine what will be the fee when we starts going parabolic. And what will be the entity behind this spam attack will do, for sure we all know that their aim of. And so if they manage to time their attack again in the bull run, it's going to be a big problem for average joe investors/traders as we will have to pay higher fees which is not good.

The price though is still on the sideways, $26k-$27k in the last week or so.

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What happened was repeated 3 times, and those times were related to the end of a cycle or the beginning of a price cycle, and therefore it is logical to understand that its impact was bad on prices by leading to a correction, but it is wrong to rely on it as a long-term influence.
At the end of 2017 when the fees went up, the price of bitcoin was much higher than it was at the beginning of the year. Likewise, the same thing in the middle of the year 2022.

As far as we can conclude that high fees mean that a short-term correction is expected, but it does not tell us anything long-term.

There is a small problem now is that we do not know whether the increase in fees will be instantaneous or sustainable?

STT

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Good data to consider and cross reference but its probably most relevant to volume occurring in that sell. The spike in 2017 I think forced prices higher ironically, reason being a lack of liquidity was caused by high fees meaning less sellers to feed demand and spiking the price in a feedback loop type effect. That was my take, I think the excessive rise in transactions then was artificial as a kind of malicious attempt to show other blockchains with larger capacity for transactions as superior.
We cannot say all points on this graph are equal as BTC has adapted over time and become more capable of carrying transactions in a variety of ways such as LN.

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Quote from: Edwardard on May 12, 2023, 09:41:30 AM

I've always seen that whenever the bitcoin tx fee soars sky high, it marks the beginning of a new sell-off cycle. Are we going to repeat it again this time? Who is to blame ? Pepe sh*t ? Ordinals ? Check the image below for reference. I'd like to know what ppl think about this.

A careful examination of the chart above will show a tactical spike in transaction fees in the first quarter of 2018. This was accompanied by sudden sell off. While I will strongly attribute this as a result shaking faith in bitcoin. But 3yrs later in the second quarter of 2021 same scenario happened with much more advanced effect which I can also attribute to the aftermath of covid-19.
Down to 2023, and using myself as an example. I haven't made any bitcoin withdrawals since this high withdrawal fee and it therefore means that this mempool congestion does not encourage withdrawal, so why will the price go down?
Ok! It might be as a result of people converting bitcoin to altcoins in exchanges before withdrawal.
Meanwhile, we have nothing to fear hence bitcoin hasn't crossed the super support which is $25k.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on May 12, 2023, 10:02:35 AM

Try talking.com

What is that ? Does it predict the bitcoin's next big move ? Or you just being sarcastic Cheesy

Bitcoin is still above $26000.

The imp. support for me is 26500 (on daily candlesticks) . Below this, its all impulsive candles made to the upside with not much support upto 20k. Im afraid if it will do a free fall to 20k again.

Let's see $25k first before we talk of a upside to $20k'ish or even lower. But I would agree that the high fees that we have seen this week might be a trigger why the price suddenly goes down from $29k->$26,700.

Maybe it frustrates some newbies to push the sell button and then hedge it to something like stable coins or other crypto. But if you look at the mempool, it's not as clogged as before. And maybe those who are spamming the network has really bad intentions in the first place, to create this chaos that we are seeing right now. Obviously, as who is to blame? it's the ordinals and inscriptions and BRC-20 clogging the network with their intentionally low transaction but high fee tx.

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Quote from: justdimin on May 13, 2023, 02:53:39 AM

Quote from: palle11 on May 12, 2023, 01:11:15 PM

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is Grin

The thing is, people ignore that it is at the very peak as well. I mean not only that it marks the sell-off and maybe it won't this time, that's another thing and very true, but on top of that we go higher and higher and higher before we peak and then we start with the sell off, but during that going higher part we see a huge increase. Check the tx fee and how it goes up, and check how the price goes up with it as well, and then check how it goes down, and then price goes down as well.

It means if we are going up right now, then it could also mean price will go up as well and then we are going to end up with something much better later on. I hope that it goes well, I am not sure if it will but I really hope that it does.

In speaking about correlating it with the price then it wont be always that precise because if we do look about that high peak of fees, then it would be neither be on a sell off or massive buying whatsoever in between the two. We've seen those conditions or situations in the past on which there's no way that we could be able to precisely tell on whats happening on the network but one things for sure that it doesnt really reflect out whether we are on a sell off or not. This time it is really just that having that Ordinal thing that had been injected which it causes out for the network to congest.
We might able to make up some patterns and comparison back in the past but its not something that we could precisely tell that it is truly that penning as of this moment.

Checking out om mempool.space as of this moment which the fees is already just sitting around 29sats/byte which came from high from 500 as i remember on previous
days which it is really indeed high.

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Quote from: palle11 on May 12, 2023, 01:11:15 PM

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is Grin

The thing is, people ignore that it is at the very peak as well. I mean not only that it marks the sell-off and maybe it won't this time, that's another thing and very true, but on top of that we go higher and higher and higher before we peak and then we start with the sell off, but during that going higher part we see a huge increase. Check the tx fee and how it goes up, and check how the price goes up with it as well, and then check how it goes down, and then price goes down as well.

It means if we are going up right now, then it could also mean price will go up as well and then we are going to end up with something much better later on. I hope that it goes well, I am not sure if it will but I really hope that it does.

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I'd like to think it's different now but there are always chances it could happen for a lot of reasons.
It's scaring away investors. All types of industries are also affected. Gambling industry for example, the gamblers are switching to another currency because big amount of money are being wasted just for transaction fees instead of being used in their gambling habits.
Where would we get the buying power, the demand, if they are gone? They will probably sell too especially those who are using it in daily basis.
Ethereum had the same problem, and a lot of their buyers are also gone but it doesn't mean the fall will be for a long time.

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It’s not the same issue here.

Back when fees were hike it was due to fomo and there was tons of people buying Bitcoin and moving it around. The situation here is that people are using the Bitcoin blockchain for ordinals which floods the network with transactions. If it wasn’t for ordinals then the transaction numbers would be fairly average.

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well of course it could mean many thing but I think ordinal the main culprit here, maybe this time around it will be different, after all BRC-20 has become a thing and is starting to gain some fame.
of course if the price of bitcoin could some how rise with the fee, it's gonna be a good thing, after all who don't want bitcoin rise in value, because it might also carry most of altcoins value too, but I doubt it will be all the same like the previous cycle considering the fact that the presence of ordinal already become a technology improvement.
but at the end of the day, we don't know until few months forward.

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Bitcoin lost 10% of its price during this sell-off. That's something that happens quite often and doesn't create as much blockchain activity. So the fee spike was caused by ordinals, but people who are moving coins in/out of exchanges were probably contributing to the fee spike too, because for them 200-300 sat/byte is not really a lot if they can make thousands of dollars on arbitrage or from short-term flips.

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Quote from: palle11 on May 12, 2023, 01:11:15 PM

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is Grin

I believe the major difference is the number of people in crypto as compared to before. That's true.
Even if there's a pattern that we can refer to, we still have no guarantee that such trend will truly happen.
And after like a couple of weeks, seems that the mempool is going down now with tx fees.
So before another important event comes to btc market, we can always stash more if you think there will be good things that will happen eventually.

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I think the increase in commissions was caused specifically to lower the price of bitcoin. I also noticed more than once that when bitcoin's mem pool gets clogged up, it means the price is about to drop. That's what happened this time too. All significant supports were broken, so I would not be surprised if we see the previous bottom again. It reminds me a lot of 2019.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on May 12, 2023, 10:02:35 AM

Quote from: Edwardard on May 12, 2023, 09:41:30 AM

I've always seen that whenever the bitcoin tx fee soars sky high, it marks the beginning of a new sell-off cycle. Are we going to repeat it again this time? Who is to blame ? Pepe sh*t ? Ordinals ? Check the image below for reference. I'd like to know what ppl think about this.

What I think about it is that it is normal for bitcoin price to fall. If it continues, $20000 will be a strong buying price. I do not care of what cause the fall because the fall is not massive. Bitcoin is still above $26000.

What is interesting me to speculate on now is if bitcoin can go below $20000 again or not.

Why people do really usually freak out when they do see that decline of -4000 - 5k when it regards to price and now telling that there might be some huge sell-off. Then what after that? There's nothing we can
do about it if ever it would happen or pushed through because there's no way on predicting on how it would be ending up.If we do have those sell off past then it could neither happen again or not.
It would all be depending on the community because we know that it would be always the main factor on which it would be determined whether the price could hold up still into its position
or would really be that going negative.

If ever the price would really be going below 25k then i would definitely say that this would be the best time on accumulating or would really be making some DCA,considering that this price is really just that
good for you to enter. Halving is fast approaching and it would be more sensible and be more worth if you do make yourself enter on cheaper prices. You cant really make yourself that
able to utilize these low price if you wont really be making such act.

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Transaction fees were high because or ordinal & brc20 spam. They weren’t really high because of increased number of transactions. They were high because of bloated blocks due to morons spamming the network with crap. People were having to pay more to get their transactions confirmed.

Normally when fees rise because if a congested blockchain it could be a sign of the peak in a cycle which could hint at a sell off but in this scenario I would say no.

palle11

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I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is Grin

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Have you noticed that there are 2 main types of analysts?
Type 1: The pattern is repeating.
These guys look for something in the past and think it's going to happen again. Some examples of their thinking:
Last time the bitcoin bear market took 400 days, so we're going to be in a bear market for at least that long.
In the last bull market bitcoin made 20x the former ATH so this time it's gong to do the same.
Last time bitcoin lost 75% in the bear market so this time it will also do it.

Type 2: This time is different.
These guys contradict type 1 analysts by looking for things that can mess up their predictions.
But this time we're in a recession.
But this time we're also in a stock bear market.
But there's a war in Ukraine.
But this time bitcoin can't go 20x because there's too many altcoins that take away from the total market cap.
In the last bear market there was no FTX.

OP is obviously doing the type 1 kind of work.

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Try talkimg.com

What is that ? Does it predict the bitcoin's next big move ? Or you just being sarcastic Cheesy

I fixed my quote, autocorrect messed it up. See TalkImg.com - Image hosting for BitcoinTalk.

coolcoinz

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Ok, I'm looking at similarities on your chart and here's what I see:
We're at the tx cost levels from January 21. The cost rose, but the price rose with it. As you can see, fees went 2x from here in 2021 and the price per bitcoin did the same (30k-60k).
Since you're concluding that after high fees there was always a dump, I feel like it's the bearish mood that's affecting your judgement.

Do you think that if we ever go to 100k the fees will remain at current levels? More likely they will be at the 2021 high, if not higher. Without second layer solutions, when people see th BTC they used to buy in 2022 is 5 times more expensive, they'll be willing to pay at least twice the current fee to move it. High fees are probably here to stay and what ordinals did is just a taste of what's coming in the next bull market. We got high fees now, but we'd get them anyway in 2024.

dragonvslinux

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While true that the two periods before with high transaction fees have been the beginning of a sell-off, this has previously been matched with transaction volume. Whereas right now the amount of BTC transacted on the network remains relatively low. This is why they say two instances can be a coincidence, it's only when there is a third reference point it becomes the start of a pattern.

So while price has corrected so far from $31K down to $26K where the 200 Week MA is, I'm not expecting it to go below $20K or return to the lows personally.

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Try talking.com

What is that ? Does it predict the bitcoin's next big move ? Or you just being sarcastic Cheesy

LoyceMobile wrote that because imgur images are having error issue on this forum and people are advised to use the uploading image site created by one of our members. Theymos recommend that also. Later your image appeared.

The imp. support for me is 26500 (on daily candlesticks) . Below this, its all impulsive candles made to the upside with not much support upto 20k. Im afraid if it will do a free fall to 20k again.

That is true, it is what I think too, but nobody can know the price in long term. I will be happy to buy again at $20000, and I will be looking for all-time-high.

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