Honestly the last one is not "really" a big increase that we should consider yet, and the previous one was just making sure we get back to ATH and not really a big increase itself. We tried a drop first, failed, and then dropped afterwards.
The one where we moved from 5k levels (I swear I remember it going under 5k) and then reached to 64k was the one that was the real bull run, then the drop to 29k was what 2022 should have been about, and yet failed, and we reached back to 68k again, which is fine and there is no problems with that, but then again we need to also realize that we couldn't really do anything big in the end later on and so far we haven't gone up that much just yet.
Topic: Historical Data on Bitcoin Bullish/Bearish Cycles (Read 149 times)
Next cycle, we'll could see increases of 2.0-2.5x, which would be around 125k to 150k.
I highly doubt there will be $150,000 in the next bull run. Of course, I would like bitcoin to grow more and more, making us all happy, but let's be realistic. Bitcoin slows down its growth over time and the number of Xs, in relation to the past ATH, is constantly decreasing. Bitcoin, with each new cycle, needs more and more fuel in the form of liquidity, it needs to attract more and more investments and cash flows. Therefore, I would count on at least 90-100k, not to mention 150k.
I think that will be the bare minimum, $100k in the next bull run. But for sure, everyone is going to be happy seeing around $120k-$180k. And I do agree that it could be around in the range of 2.0ish again for new all time high.
There is no formula, this is all speculation base on the past numbers that we are getting.
Bitcoin market is fairly young though, so those numbers will really fluctuate as well as the data set is too small. Nevertheless, a good 6 digits 2024/2025 bull run is not that bad.
This data would be more useful if it were in 4-year periods in my opinion. Trying to catch each movement and calling them bull markets while ignoring the obvious 4-year cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price misstates what is actually happening. I think it’s a good attempt but just misses the mark on when bull and bear markets actually start and stop.
I assume that bitcoin's pullback is not only related to FTX and Luna collapse. Still, in recent years, various events have been taking place in the world that are not conducive to growth btc. For example, rising inflation and unemployment don't contribute to an increase in purchases. When people have extra money, they can invest in btc, but when their economic situation is very unstable, people simply may not have free money. Without money and their investments, as you know, bitcoin will not rise in price. Remember the times of the pandemic, when a lot of unsecured money was poured into the global economy and where this money went from people's pockets. Then not only crypto, but the stock market skyrocketed. There will be good times of prosperity and you will see how the bull trend returns to the market again.
We can speculate on how btc will perform in the next bullish cycle, but we will only know when it happens. I think we will never see x100 or even x10 again - it was possible at first, when the price was very low. x2 is quite possible if all factors converge, but I think that growth will slow down. Actually, it's logical. This is how much money is needed to make x10 from 25k or x10 from 10k.
Times 10 for BTC might still be possible but I am not sure about times 100 because like you said the price is already huge. This is also the reason on why there are new coins that has been released because there are also people who are looking for the next Bitcoin in terms of ROI. Times 2 for BTC is very possible even if other positive factors are not seen yet.We can speculate on how btc will perform in the next bullish cycle, but we will only know when it happens. I think we will never see x100 or even x10 again - it was possible at first, when the price was very low. x2 is quite possible if all factors converge, but I think that growth will slow down. Actually, it's logical. This is how much money is needed to make x10 from 25k or x10 from 10k.
There are just times where the growth speed is slow especially if we are on a time like this. We are still in the bear market. You didn't state if you much money needed before the price can rise up to 10x but I think this one can still be calculated easily for those who are good in maths
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Hmm that rounding up to not include a decimal might be a bit misleading on the last two, but that's also a bit of a wake-up call, we're no longer dealing in order of magnitudes and we have to look way lower. Anyhow, the 2021 growth was 130%, and the one right now is just 54% based on those numbers so a bit of a difference, not that it matters that much.
That's one thing I don't like about extrapolation on percentages, which is such a small sample those can go any way possible, a decrease in growth from 16x to 3.5x can be easily seen as another ~80% fall growth rate and that would lead automatically to just a 0.8, and with this making the next one almost flat. But if you look from a raw number point of view, the growth is actually increasing since the last one was 48k and the previous 18k. Of course, this is a flawed model too since it would lead to unlimited and expanding growth, with over 200$ and over 600k in the next runs.
I beleive it's best for us to have a look at the big picture:
From 12/2013 to 12/2017, Bitcoin increased around 16x (from 1.2k to 19.5k)
From 12/2017 to Summer 2021, Bitcoin increased around 3.5x (from 19.5k to 67k).
Next cycle, we need to take 67k as our new starting point.
Next cycle, we'll could see increases of 2.0-2.5x, which would be around 125k to 150k.
And it would be a 5x - 7x from where we are now.
From 12/2013 to 12/2017, Bitcoin increased around 16x (from 1.2k to 19.5k)
From 12/2017 to Summer 2021, Bitcoin increased around 3.5x (from 19.5k to 67k).
Next cycle, we need to take 67k as our new starting point.
Next cycle, we'll could see increases of 2.0-2.5x, which would be around 125k to 150k.
And it would be a 5x - 7x from where we are now.
That's one thing I don't like about extrapolation on percentages, which is such a small sample those can go any way possible, a decrease in growth from 16x to 3.5x can be easily seen as another ~80% fall growth rate and that would lead automatically to just a 0.8, and with this making the next one almost flat. But if you look from a raw number point of view, the growth is actually increasing since the last one was 48k and the previous 18k. Of course, this is a flawed model too since it would lead to unlimited and expanding growth, with over 200$ and over 600k in the next runs.
Next cycle, we'll could see increases of 2.0-2.5x, which would be around 125k to 150k.
I highly doubt there will be $150,000 in the next bull run. Of course, I would like bitcoin to grow more and more, making us all happy, but let's be realistic. Bitcoin slows down its growth over time and the number of Xs, in relation to the past ATH, is constantly decreasing. Bitcoin, with each new cycle, needs more and more fuel in the form of liquidity, it needs to attract more and more investments and cash flows. Therefore, I would count on at least 90-100k, not to mention 150k.
I can't consider that we are already in the bull run since December 2022. For me, there's no confirmation at all. What we experienced could be a pullback only from what happened last year about issues on different centralized exchanges like FTX Exchange and Luna collapse.
I am not against of bull market, but on what we are right now, I am still not convinced that we are already in a bull market because I have my own indicator based on the previous price history of Bitcoin.
I assume that bitcoin's pullback is not only related to FTX and Luna collapse. Still, in recent years, various events have been taking place in the world that are not conducive to growth btc. For example, rising inflation and unemployment don't contribute to an increase in purchases. When people have extra money, they can invest in btc, but when their economic situation is very unstable, people simply may not have free money. Without money and their investments, as you know, bitcoin will not rise in price. Remember the times of the pandemic, when a lot of unsecured money was poured into the global economy and where this money went from people's pockets. Then not only crypto, but the stock market skyrocketed. There will be good times of prosperity and you will see how the bull trend returns to the market again.I am not against of bull market, but on what we are right now, I am still not convinced that we are already in a bull market because I have my own indicator based on the previous price history of Bitcoin.
We can speculate on how btc will perform in the next bullish cycle, but we will only know when it happens. I think we will never see x100 or even x10 again - it was possible at first, when the price was very low. x2 is quite possible if all factors converge, but I think that growth will slow down. Actually, it's logical. This is how much money is needed to make x10 from 25k or x10 from 10k.
Personally, not a fan of taking averages of 1 year bear markets and those of only a few months. I'd prefer to seperate these two types of cyclical and mid-cycle bear markets.
For example the mid-cycle corrections have been 68%, 61%, maybe even 51%. The cyclical bear markets have been -83% and -84% (according to such data).
So the target for current bear market is around $12K. But it seems like this hasn't occured within the usual time-frame of 12-14 months.
I otherwise find the 2x increase per average purely subjective based on starting price... so not going to comment on that
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For example the mid-cycle corrections have been 68%, 61%, maybe even 51%. The cyclical bear markets have been -83% and -84% (according to such data).
So the target for current bear market is around $12K. But it seems like this hasn't occured within the usual time-frame of 12-14 months.
I otherwise find the 2x increase per average purely subjective based on starting price... so not going to comment on that
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Moving from $100 to $1000 (ie a 10-fold increase) is much easier than moving from $1000 to $10,000.
Thus, it is not easy to see 5x - 7x during the upcoming cycles, because it means adding trillions of dollars over a period of 4 years, which seems very difficult compared to adding several million dollars during those years.
Let's just hope that in 5 years the price will be over $100,000.
Thus, it is not easy to see 5x - 7x during the upcoming cycles, because it means adding trillions of dollars over a period of 4 years, which seems very difficult compared to adding several million dollars during those years.
Let's just hope that in 5 years the price will be over $100,000.
I beleive it's best for us to have a look at the big picture:
Next cycle, we'll could see increases of 2.0-2.5x, which would be around 125k to 150k.
And it would be a 5x - 7x from where we are now.
Finally, we should also consider: last ATH (2021) we didn't have any halving but now, in 2024, we'll have one, resulting in a possibly more bullish environment.
You are absolutely right that historical trends and upcoming halving event suggest that Bitcoin could potentially reach 125K in the next bull run, however it is also important to note that the price of Bitcoin is also impacted by macro-economic factors and market conditions, as we have seen strong correlation between stocks and Bitcoin markets during the recent years.
It is certainly possible for Bitcoin to hit 125K or even more in the next bull cycle, if fear of recession subsides, and there is fall in inflation, a pause in interest rate increase, and an increase in GDP, these factors could potentially support an upward trend in Bitcoin.
The question arises, will Bitcoin be able to show x2 in the next bullish cycle, or will growth continue to slow down?
I beleive it's best for us to have a look at the big picture: From 12/2013 to 12/2017, Bitcoin increased around 16x (from 1.2k to 19.5k)
From 12/2017 to Summer 2021, Bitcoin increased around 3.5x (from 19.5k to 67k).
Next cycle, we need to take 67k as our new starting point.
Next cycle, we'll could see increases of 2.0-2.5x, which would be around 125k to 150k.
And it would be a 5x - 7x from where we are now.
Finally, we should also consider: last ATH (2021) we didn't have any halving but now, in 2024, we'll have one, resulting in a possibly more bullish environment.
Bitcoin at 2x its all-time high is roughly around 2.5 trillion USD. Sounds pretty reasonable in my opinion, but reaching that point ain’t going to be easy. I still expect us to be receiving regulators attacks left and right that would hinder that growth; so while it’s definitely very possible, it might take longer than usual.
Most likely yes, in the next year or two, most likely, the market will storm, and we will rake up the consequences of the crazy growth of 2021 (not only bitcoin, but the entire industry), as it constantly turns out that everything was nurtured either artificially or on credit money. Therefore, many companies began to burst like soap bubbles. Until the central banks release liquidity into the markets again, bitcoin will not reach the values it was in 2021.
Bitcoin at 2x its all-time high is roughly around 2.5 trillion USD. Sounds pretty reasonable in my opinion, but reaching that point ain’t going to be easy. I still expect us to be receiving regulators attacks left and right that would hinder that growth; so while it’s definitely very possible, it might take longer than usual.
I can't consider that we are already in the bull run since December 2022. For me, there's no confirmation at all. What we experienced could be a pullback only from what happened last year about issues on different centralized exchanges like FTX Exchange and Luna collapse.
I am not against of bull market, but on what we are right now, I am still not convinced that we are already in a bull market because I have my own indicator based on the previous price history of Bitcoin.
I am not against of bull market, but on what we are right now, I am still not convinced that we are already in a bull market because I have my own indicator based on the previous price history of Bitcoin.
The question arises, will Bitcoin be able to show x2 in the next bullish cycle, or will growth continue to slow down?
From it's last all time high? I think it will be more than that, minimum for me will be like 2.5x growth. Others may pegged it higher, and so with my prediction, it's just a conservative estimates.
Obviously it will slow down sooner or later or as we go to the next phase and the next.
But there will be obvious growth right after the halving.
Bitcoin price is very volatile, it can be considered to be a risk asset, but that depends on how you know about bitcoin price history, there are years for bulls and also there are years for bears. Like this time, if anyone says bitcoin is a risky asset, I will say it is wrong, because the price is still low, we should look forward to bitcoin getting to all-time-high now because the price can not be less than $15000 again is my guess.
The question arises, will Bitcoin be able to show x2 in the next bullish cycle, or will growth continue to slow down?
All I believe is that bitcoin can get to all-time-high. That is more than x2.
I found a nice table of past bullish and bearish cycles showing percentages of ups and downs:
For obvious reasons, the growth rate of bitcoin slows down over time, but the depth of the fall almost always remains at the same values of 75-85%, although more than 10 years have passed, but bitcoin is still volatile. Although historically bitcoin has always recovered all the most severe falls, but I think this is still a deterrent for some investors to buy bitcoin. Bitcoin is still a risky asset, not a safe haven.
The question arises, will Bitcoin be able to show x2 in the next bullish cycle, or will growth continue to slow down?
For obvious reasons, the growth rate of bitcoin slows down over time, but the depth of the fall almost always remains at the same values of 75-85%, although more than 10 years have passed, but bitcoin is still volatile. Although historically bitcoin has always recovered all the most severe falls, but I think this is still a deterrent for some investors to buy bitcoin. Bitcoin is still a risky asset, not a safe haven.
The question arises, will Bitcoin be able to show x2 in the next bullish cycle, or will growth continue to slow down?
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