Topic: history loves repeating itself. the only question is when! (Read 962 times)

Indeed it all comes down to actual buys and sells

But they don't happen on their own. People buy and sell cryptocurrencies, and it is important to understand what is driving their decisions and motives that are behind these market actions. Regardless of real adoption, speculative games and FOMO can easily drive the price above 20k, and we won't necessarily have to wait till the end of the year or next year. It could just be next week. This is my point


Essentially, we are already in that territory

you are describing and focusing on "point of view" but point of view doesn't shape the market, the actual buys and sells do. the acts that people are committing looks optimistic because the price is rising but the reality is that demand is increasing and with it the price.
if it were otherwise price should have never gone above $4k because everyone was saying they predict drop to $1k!

everything comes down to adoption, this time the adoption that were waiting to happen after seeing a positive signal. now that they are seeing it, they are dumping their fiat fast.

For a start it would be nice to get to the previous historical ATH! And then to get to the new highs...
However, I also think that now we are on the way to the new ATH!

It is all mind games and mental biases

I mean, how we internally foresee the future trends based on our understanding and recent dynamic. For example, if you are optimistic (maybe, overly optimistic), 20k may now feel to you as something within your grasp, so to speak. Conversely, the 5k that we still need to come over may feel like a big journey to you if are not that optimistic (let's say so). But still, we are already making second time highs, anyway you look at it, and we are certainly on track to making new historical highs

Looks like you are not paying attention to what i am saying , you dont get my point.

Maybe we will not see anymore a 100% rise within a day but we have seen bitcoin price so steady climb up from 2% daily to 5% daily , this is the new normal of bitcoin skyrocketing.
Nobody realize we are on 14000 level now while the time flies from last month level of desperate 10000 usd.
We are really heading to new ATH in new style!
Isnt it so excitimg? Cannot wait for the new year to come and we will see you guys on top of the moon.

the trend and all the things causing the trend are the same. that is the only thing that matters.

i would be very surprised. ATH is a very different matter compared to these current rises. historically reaching ATH has been very hard because there is a ton of sell off as we get closer to it.

Personally, I won't be surprised if we see a new ATH next week

I remember many times when people were saying things like these (not this year, not in our lifetime, etc), and then, all of sudden, we jumped right there overnight. Well, maybe not strictly overnight but well beyond anyone's reasonable expectations. Somehow, 20k and above looks and feels like an easy target now. Whether we are going to settle there for long is another matter, though

Already anticipating for something to happen but hopefully there wont really be some big issues that would just suddenly pop out just like some exchange hacks or something like that because
it do usually drive the price down and go back to square one on where we do really struggle to break on.For now we are playing in levels of 14k and hope that this will be the new support
and we would really be heading up to 15k again and with these gradual pumps and breaks then its not too long for us to see that previous ATH that we are aiming for.
It will surely be not on this year but we are indeed heading there but theres no definite time in talks to that.Nothing can be assured when in talks of future movements.

Being "similar" and repeating are different things, there could be some similar stuff but when it is repeating that usually means there is connection between one thing leading to another thing and that repeats itself all the time which means in the future when we see one thing we will assume we know what it will lead to and invest accordingly.

That is not the case here, of course there are things that are similar, sure there was halving which lead to increase in price, both years, but that doesn't mean each halving will equal to increase in price forever, that is not really the case or that is what I at least assume. So yeah, see the similarities but do not assume just because A lead to B years ago, same A will ever lead to B, it may do that but it may not do it as well.

i didn't really expect it to keep rising after getting close to $14k let alone break the $14k itself. it is back to my original post about "history repeating". you see we are not yet at the end of the cycle to see gigantic rises nonstop. it is just a start and we should expect only small rises like this with lots of small corrections but each time setting a new high. this trend will continue unless there is some unexpected big thing happens.

I'm a trader whose main forte is technical analysis, I also believe that history itself loves repeating especially in charts. Kindly look the DNA of the bitcoin wherein there is also a breakout that is look a like on what happened in these previous days in the chart. The price is now hovering at between $13300-$14,000. I thought yesterday that the price will hold above $14,000 levels after the closing handle did that. There is a red candle appeared in this day so there is a high possibility that it already hit the resistance and it will retrace in these following days. That is just my expectation and I will still follow the plan that I created.

For those traders who do not know when will enter in the trade, I think it is better if to understand and study the recent price movement of the bitcoin. The pattern are always repeating and like what I said that history repeat itself. It is just a cycle and a trader or investor should understand it and became aware on what it is in order to maximize the gains.

2021 suppose to be the year where everything great happens, it was like that way before the pandemic and it was seen like that even before there was any economical downfall in the world. The reason why it was seen like that was the 4 year cycle deal, during 2013 it was lower a bit, on 2014 it went up, in 2015 it crashed in 2016 it went stable and a bit up, in 2017 it was normal actually but on the last days it went up, and we did the same thing now for the past 3 years once again.

This means either by the end of this year like 2017 suggested or maybe start of 2018 with the halving and all and the cycle, we should be basically going up, that is at least what the history tells us, will it happen? I wouldn't know but it definitely does look like that for time being.

i agree, and i also always say that history doesn't have to be repeated.
but is the conditions in the market really different?

most of them are very similar and are being repeated in pretty much the same way as 2016 and 2017. i already covered price and volume which can be seen on charts. we have more adoption from regular people to institutional investors which is a lot more than before. we also have more countries changing their laws to adopt bitcoin again similar to 2017. we have a lot of big names like paypal adopting bitcoin (like we had Steam, Microsoft,...).
we had scaling debate in 2017 which was keeping bitcoin back, now we have Corona that is doing it. but now we have fiat inflation that easily negates that.

it stands to reason to say that even though there are some differences but the main factors are still there and even though we may not see the same exact movement we can see a very similar one.

History may love to repeat itself, but does it teach us anything?

I daresay history teaches us little except how little we learn from it. And if you think about it, this repetition (and many other such repetitions) is the genuine proof of that since if we were to learn something, let's say a trick or two, we wouldn't see it repeated again and again, would we? Regarding the question of when, we can draw on this regretful fact. More specifically, we should expect coming back to square one as soon as most people forget what they have been supposed to learn

This. Is critical to consider.
Someone could make $1million usd out of $10k with his positions in short time during the bubble , can we really compare the good old days circumstances to the recent event that the market itself has changed a lot.
There maybe a periodic increment instead a shock increase 100% within the day now like 2% steady increases in 3 days or something like that.
Will we see a $3000 to $6000 over the night again? I wish so but realistically it is hard too see it nowadays.

Different people are having different perceptions. I am seeing this year very much similar to 2016 regardless of what we had due to pandemic. I mean that even world economy got suffered due to consequences of pandemic, bitcoin must need to be performing like gold as gold and bitcoins are falling into same category compared to stocks and other bonds which are related to economy of a country.

Moreover, we are going to see a new ATH by the end of this year which will make us to assume that potential of bitcoin is more than enough to defeat the consequences of pandemic. This way history will repeat itself and I am not having any doubts about its timing as well because I am foreseeing the possibilities of coinciding time frame as well.

There is no exactly the same situation, especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Besides, conditions in the market are never the same and there are so many factors and circumstances that might affect Bitcoin price.
History might repeat but that is not the only argument you can stick to to predict possible price growth, in crypto world that doesn't count.

it depends on what you mean by "exactly the same".
is it exactly the same to see a year of bear market with about 80% drop followed by months of accumulation where FUD is spread about a huge drop right before price rises 100%? then yes it was exactly the same.

is it exactly the same to see the rally start slowly after that accumulation with some drops caused by panic sells while the long term is still rising? then again it is exactly the same.

....

it doesn't have to be repetition of previous year but the past 3 years are the repetition of the 3 years before 2017 (from 2014 to 2017 and now from 2017 to 2021 is being repeated).

He didn't mean the repetition of events but he mean the repetiton of price but i think when price repeats that is still an event ? But there are actually events that repeat like when there is a company that accepts crypto and then they will drop the support for crypto but sooner or later they will adopt crypto again.

PayPal accepting Bitcoin is new and we never see this happen before  but this execution done by PayPal will possibly make the price repeat itself again .

The last bubble was inflated when there was no margin in the market and CME traders who blew out the last bubble!
So I wonder if they can blow a new bubble when everyone can buy a long position?

when you say so,is it really exactly the same?. because the news or whatever that affects the price of bitcoin every year is not the same. for example bitcoin is now being adopted by paypal, which in previous years this never happened. so whether it will be exactly the same as the previous year's chart history.

so far the repetition of the history has been on point. it is not just the price either it is all the movements down to the general sentiment of people around the web. it is making a nice shift from the "it is too hard to reach $10k by the end of 2020" to "new ATH in 2020 is easy".
these are all signals for the start of the big bull run which should be very similar to the start of 2017.
my guess is that the next bubble isn't that far. we can easily see it by mid 2021.

It seem's to be true and it always make the price go higher so I wouldn't be surprised when one day we could see it at $20K or even $30K mark and people are still crying that it is the end of it LOL.
It is funny how we have been having a high price and every time the price drops down people get carried away and talks about the end of crypto.

Even though that we are in a sort of bull run, we are going to hear some people bad mouthing bitcoin in every angle as they have their own intentions, maybe they want to pull the market down again or simply they are no-coiner and old and traditional like Warren Buffett.


Yeah, period of accumulation is around $9k-$10k, and I'm sure there are investors who have filled their bags already. While others are left behind, but they still have some time, but it might take sometime because the price is already $13k and going up. But then again, it really doesn't matter, imagine the price going to $40k-$50k, still a lot of profits to be made.

On every new trend, especially during an upward trend, we keep seeing things like "history repeating itself".

It's a good example for those negative people that even dealing with the bearish market, there are thousands of reasons to believed that BTC will soon rise. Unfortunately, even with this repetitive performance, there are still lots of people that don't know what kind of approach should they do. Back in below $10,000 for example, there are lots of people anticipated that price will decrease more so they will wait until ..... that's it.

Doesn't matter when will be the next pump. As much as possible, people should always accumualte BTC as much as they can no matter the price entry level is.

Maybe now you see as we already are surging towards the 15k mark soon in few months maybe we should touch it and the ATH is not far away now.

This is so true and still a better love story than Twilight. I mean all of us know that when the price drops it is only going to be temporary but still everyone panics and the truth is a lot of us even end of selling some coins in the chaos. I myself when was new to this market I used to panic too soon but with time I have learned that the drops in price are temporary and so are the sharp hikes because they get settled down to an average amount soon.

Smart investors and traders are those who learn this market pattern and instead of being a victim of FOMO or Panic they make their own decisions because the market is cruel and when price goes down everyone is only talking thrash.

Someone as experienced as you and who has 1400+ posts on forum I am really surprised why do you reply the same post twice in consecutive posts because you can easily give one answer and since you are replying to the same post. Please avoid this in future because this is normally considered as spam and not something appreciated by anyone.

You might have a point actually and there is always a positive movement in the charts around late every year in Q4. But this time I feel like the price is going up for a reason and this might be because the investors are coming back into crypto after selling it earlier this year when everyone suffered and a lot of investors sold their assets to maintain their fiat portfolios and now they are getting back into action.

The impact of Paypal announcing users to hold 4 crypto mainly BCH, BTC, ETH and LTC has a huge impact indeed and it cannot be understated because a lot of investors were always hesitant to use bitcoins and now more and more big investors are moving into the crypto market after the amazing Pyapal move. I am not sure when this will be implemented or it is already implemented because I don't use paypal at all but I do know how big an impact such move will have on the prices as we already see it.

Not sure about history repeating itself and if the all time maximum price will be reached but we are looking at a solid growth and that too at times when other markets are falling apart and even hard to maintain their value let alone any positive movement at all.

I also think the paypal news has an impact on price, its the reason why the value is moving upward. However we know when there's a price increase, correction is also possible to happen due to some investors taking advantage the increase.

Anyways its good to see the price increasing, if this continue for few days then it is not impossible that we might reach the $15k value like what you predicted.

I think the price is doing well.

I don't wait for the bull to come, as long as the price is making great changes, that is fine by me. It is been like this for a while now and I think this would continue for a period of time so as long as we are still here, people should not wait for a better price, do what you can do to take this opportunity because we never know what will happen in the future.

The PayPal news made the price to move forward, I just woke up to see the price with a big pump and I said to myself there should a big reason or news why the price is pumping and then I got this Paypal new and I'm sure that this news contributed the rise of the price, we can still hope the price to still go up to $15000, whales are still buying and and as whales bought more people will likely follow.

so far there has been a very good momentum in the market and new highs are being set one after the other. with today's breakout above the $12.5k mark the confidence in the rise is also increasing as shorts are being closed, money is being pulled out of altcoin market and the bitcoin trading volume keeps increasing.

The uncertainty is on the when and not on whether or not the history of Bitcoin's higher price or bull run will come back. There is one hundred percent certainty that it will happen. As of this moment there is a sort of a cue that Bitcoin will rise above $12,000 anytime soon. The expectation that Bitcoin will break $11,800 if it breaks $11,500 has already happened. We are just waiting for the price to hit $12,000 any minute from now.

I have to post what appears to be quite a bullish rise above previously negative or declining highs, the only thing missing is higher volume but still BTC can often drift higher and seems thats its mood right now.



Its sure to be scaring a few short to close right now and theres only really the recent high of about 12490 or similar to keep resistance in play as an idea.

I do expect that a bull run is around to come at anytime soon. The season is getting turned on because of the end of the year. Volatility is the next to follow just as it happened in 2017. This year may not have been uptrend from beginning but it seem it has taken another turn.

I do expect that a bull run is around to come at anytime soon. The season is getting turned on because of the end of the year.

When you are a long term holder the "when" doesn't matter because you will hit it definitely when you are investing for years after years even maybe over decade so you could definitely hit it when you wait that much. People assume that when you trade daily you could hit big but the real big winners are the people who wait. You want to make a little profit by buying and selling?

Well, the guy who bought bitcoin 5 years ago and still keeps it made thousands of percent profit, if you bought even earlier it is crazy record breaking deal.

So instead of getting rushed, just buy bitcoin and hold it for 10 years and you will definitely end up with huuuge returns like 2017 once again. Long term investment consists of downs and ups, so if you want highest of ups, just invest and forget until that moment comes.

I don't see that the price will repeat itself, and I guess history doesn't repeat itself, but as a matter of fact, history rhymes.

This is a good example.
We can consider this as history that is always repeating when someone is trying to speculate the Bitcoin to increase. And then, as history goes, Bitcoin might decrease or increase. If it decreases, people remain their hope. When it increases, people that did not believe regrets missing it.

For me, the real excitement comes with altcoins soaring once the unrestricted bull run begins for Bitcoin. This is what some of the investors are going to be looking at too. We saw it with the 2017 FOMO and that helped altcoins gain momentum. Almost anything that was crypto on the market had a great run. I have observed this in the past and usually it went with the post Bitcoin halving year. I expect a huge break next year. The price can play around that 11,000 — $15,000 to main relative stability until 2021. It's going to be an interesting time going forward.

that's true, but what we don't know is how big the increase and decrease will be in the future.
That is why many people are always wrong in predicting, but if they set a target then they will not be confused about making choices when it happens.

Having no assurance of when will such thing happen means there's also no certainty.
What if there's just this linkage of similarity. The market price of Bitcoin and other cryptos are naturally volatile, meaning, it won't stay at a certain point for a long period of time. Its price movement can either go up or down without certainty of the occurence. So it is quite blurry to draw a conclusion of history repitition just because its market value is moving according to its 'nature'. We just like to make speculations to uplift our hopes regarding its market value.  The market price will move on its "own".

The one thing that I am waiting to repeat is another all time high, the last all  time high happens three years ago we have seen so many things in the market, and another all time high should be due now, we have seen so many break outs but it's not enough to gain a lot of momentum we need a big pump so people will will be encourage to buy more and push the price.

History awaits the right time and the right time is when, after shaking the markets too much by taking them down to earth and removing all the weak hands out of the game by making them think that this is the end of btc and it is going to die, the whales who packed their bags with weak hands' btc during all this time, move out their guns and start bombarding with big green candles on the charts and they make profits there too as fomo never stops.

You mention the line breaking by btc really true we are passing the all level but it is always a question behind when the upcoming price will be broken .It is so pleasant to see the  cross of border however we are so near to break the 12K$ mark .Hopefully it will happen soon .

That's why many of us are expecting a new rise in the price of cryptocurrencies! To then compare with the past... I am convinced that history repeats itself and will surely repeat itself once again! The main thing is to use all the past experience next time!

Looking positive on this one mate though i really don't believe in repeating the history yet this is a clear point and graphs that we are in the same boat like what we had in the past.
thanks for sharing and it boost my belief that i need to wait more before selling out.
actually this is worth a wait since there are the graphs given that we are on the near bullrun again,and the 2017 pump is almost happening now.

well that's what we mean, no one knows for sure when it will happen.
people can only predict based on what has happened.
but the reality is sometimes different and will not always be the same, although in general it will imitate previous history

Diversification is good for a long term investor because they some coins might give profits in short time and other in long term so if there is sudden dump in the market then these profits will be useful to nullify the huge losses made.We are waiting for the bull run ,which may happen sooner or later but going to happen so holding until it reaches is the strategy and no need to have certain time frame when HODL is in practice.

Lies exist but not everything is a lie, we dont have to presume that universally.   A promissory note or zero coupon bond such as cash is now doesn't have to fail in value, we just presume that as its been the case for so long and by the largest economies of the world.   Japan and USA are quite determined not to maintain any proper fixed value in currency and similarly many major currencies but also its possible some economies will gain from the value and confidence lost elsewhere.  The easiest way to identify good paper is by finding countries with good trade balance, fiscal control of a budgeted regular economy and low debt levels serviceable easily;  also note the countries with uncontrollable and unserviceable debts and the paper currency is likely to diminish greatly.

I'm seeing or speculating that we will see a trace back on this last negative trend break upwards.   So we rose upto 11500 and its hesitated there on classic resistance, losing momentum leads us into stall speed and now seems like we will pull back to 11k areas or similar and we'll have to observe if old negative trend is being rechecked for how solid it is.   Basically I'm calling for something of a short term pullback and we'll see how that test goes, I guess this is like Monday Tuesday timeline presuming I'm anything close to accurate and weekends are always a bit foggy lacking price clarity; of course volume weekend events can occur in theory and so price moves.

Its not really that much that's why others do consider out alts rather than going full or all in with bitcoin. Come to think that bitcoin cant just shoot up 2x or 3x even on a bull run unlike on altcoin
where it can easily shoot up 2x or more when bull run.

Sounds right? Yeah it does that's why people do still opt in for altcoins even majority is been telling that bitcoin is worth of the wait but to think that altcoin can give out similar chances or even more
but only applicable into those top alts and the rest are just trash.

History might repeat itself neither would create another one or something new.No one knows because we are just human that cant predict on what would be the future looks like.

Undoubtedly, any fiat currency is not even worth the paper it is printed on. I believe most in bitcoin, Gold and Silver. Bitcoin will indeed reach a very high price, but it is very difficult to predict it, but it is many times better than all currencies that are subject to inflation. But about the future 500 years later, I can say that you are a very optimistic person, since scientists doubt that humanity can successfully survive until the next century, given the scale of the impact of global warming on the planet.

They are not really that much of a trouble in the bitcoin community if you ask me, the reality is that people do spam a ton of numbers and they make predictions but nobody really cares about them, or not enough of them cares at least because price doesn't change.

You can start 10 topics on bitcoin talk with 10 different legendary accounts all on the same day saying that bitcoin is going to $20k, we are talking about the most important high level people of bitcointalk all saying the same thing on the same day, and it still wouldn't increase the price. Bitcoin is a multi-billion dollar market and people on bitcointalk only makes up like 1% of all the money, not that many rich people are here reading what we think, so the reality is everyone can spam whatever they want, it won't change a thing.

I believe bitcoin will be over $100k within then next 2 years and that eventually bitcoin will be $1mm, $10mm, and ultimately in the big picture 1 bitcoin will be worth more than all of the $$ in existence..
Eventually, 1 bitcoin will be worth more than all the cny, gbp, euro, usd, and pesos etc. combined.. All of them..

Why?
Because every fiat currency eventually fails but I believe bitcoin will last absolutely forever until the dawn of time..

Within the next 500 years, I would not be surprised if the dating system is changed from the current system based on the birth of Christ, to the birth of bitcoin 

We always wonder when bitcoin will increase or gain back its price because some people are already losing their patience for holding their bitcoin until bitcoin's price reaches up to $20,000 again. It's better if we take every chance and opportunity when bitcoin suddenly decreases its value for us to have a significant profit when bitcoin reaches its ATH again.

It's always about "when". It's hard to make an accurate answer. But according to the situation, accumulating bitcoin is what people do currently. Whales, investors, traders, bitcoiners, etc are trying as many efforts as they can to buy more and more bitcoin. My country's local exchange has recorded an outstanding bitcoin volume this month. There are full of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies lovers here no matter how notorious bitcoin is due to the reason that people use bitcoin to steal others's money. Surely we will soon have some profit with this investment

One of the hardest question to answer, we are left wondering when it will pass the line, we have asked this when Bitcoin is struggling to pass the $9000 mark, the $10000 mark. the $11000 and now the $12000 mark, but fortunately for us it always manages to pass the line but without us knowing the right time, we just need to follow the market because there's always breakthrough.

The other problem with all these repeating parrots also is this funny phenomenon in crypto that we are seeing: they are self-fulfilling their prophecies. A lot of people actually think one thing and say another. Many people will say 100k and 70k and whatever but you're right, they're mainly thinking privately about the mental barrier of 20k so how they sell and stop holding is still stuck below that. So naturally, no one is doing anything to achieve the 100k or whatever and market simply fulfills that prophecy.

We've seen this kind of movement of Bitcoin many times already.
Base on its movement this year. I think it happened around 2-3 times already but the longest was at around May-July of this year where its price is at the range of $9,000-$10,000

I know and many are expecting that this kind of trend will happen anytime this year probably and into the next years. I'm waiting for the new ATH of Bitcoin. For sure the whole crypto world will be happy when that happens.

In my opinion there are possibilities to see a big change in the market price as US election is nearing I am pretty confident the price movement will definitely change on the result announcement day or then after, excitement, thrill and more we are few steps away from the happy days.

But it's always good to have low expectation because higher expectation will always lead to disappointment, have faith and let's wait for our turn.

Mostly those who predict BTC price gets a time frame and calculate its percentage increase and apply it to the current price but of course, it has a huge flow since the market capitalization that needs to be realized which is far higher than before and needs much more funds to come in.  Others are just creating non-intelligent predictions for the buzz, even without sense just to have something to say in their blogs or article.

But setting aside any predictions, history do repeat itself just how some analyst believe in the 4-year cycle of BTC.

it is not possible to say what everyone means when they say a number. some are just spamming, some are repeating like a parrot, some have their own analysis.
for example the $20k is more of a mental barrier that people set for themselves and it is more virtual than be real. it has always been the same with all previous ATH prices.
some other numbers such as $100k and $1 mil are mostly round numbers and with some extrapolation of data from the past 10 years accompanied by some technical analysis we can get there while rounding the price to the nearest round number such as $100k.
$70k i'd assume is the same with a little bit of pessimism included.

You don't have to hold other coins if you doubt it will increase or it will stay at the bottom price. Holding bitcoin won't make you disappointed because when bitcoin price increases, you will see the price will jump to the highest price. We can not imagine how high the price, but we will see it for ourselves. The altcoin can help us get more bitcoin from trading, and now we have so many potential altcoins that can give us that way. We can search for the right coin to trade, so we can expect to profit in the next increases.

I do not understand how people get that number neither, there are tons of people who talk about 20k, 100k, even a million dollars, now 70k, how does those numbers calculated? Like is there a mathematical data behind these numbers? Or is it more like "ı just made it all up" type of situation?

Because when you do say something like that, in bitcointalk it is not a problem because anyone can say anything they want, but when a person comes up and says something like this in any other nation, it becomes something bigger, like even legally wrong as well. For example in my nation if you write that "bitcoin will be 70k" and keep it up there without deleting, someone sees it and buys bitcoin and it doesn't get there in time, they can sue you for wrong information as well.

$50 million sounds huge when it is said alone because obviously it is 50 freaking million effing dollars.
but when it is said in comparison, it starts to seem like nothing. so lets take a look at some volumes. in past 24 hours there has been $60 million trading volume on Bitstamp alone. there is a total of $23.6 billion total trading volume of bitcoin in past 24 hours according to coinmarketcap. also in the past 24 hours $24 billion worth of bitcoin has been moved on bitcoin blockchain according to bitinfocharts.
so you see that number doesn't really look like much!

as for the news, it is all about timing. meaning if some positive news comes out right now and price starts reacting to it within the next 10 minutes then it is a good indication. but for example if it takes a day or two then there is no relationship.

I'm calm for the future of Bitcoin... But other coins raise doubts! What's the point in keeping a constantly cheaper asset? And that's while new, modified coins and tokens appear every day! You have to learn how to make a profit from alts and not to become a bagholder!

Unfortunately it could be anytime at any moment, last month you could have said it could be any moment now as well and technically speaking you wouldn't be wrong neither to say that at that moment because it "could" have been at any moment, but looking at today we are still saying it could be any moment now and it is still nowhere like that.

So in the end, I would say the best way to approach crypto would be to realize that you are not going to change anything yourself but the price can move anywhere very quickly when you look at it, technically speaking price could be $20k right now, just everyone all together declining to sell bitcoin under $20k ever again, and BAM you got yourself $20k+ price, technically it is possible but in practice that doesn't happen obviously. So, be ready for anything but realize you can't change it.

I’m bullish with the market and yes we have to start getting more good coins now, not just bitcoin but good altcoins as well, as much as possible. We have to stop dumping our precious coins to a cheaper price, I know we can’t pleased the whales but I’m sure they will stop from doing that so we finally welcome the great bull run. 2021 will become a different year, we will recover from the big loss this year so keep holding more.

I also think the funds coming from Square is one of the reasons why the price of Bitcoin made a sudden rise. That was $50 million worth of money confirmed to have entered into Bitcoin. That must be relatively big enough for the price of Bitcoin to probably rise. That was not a tiny drop that won't cause a little wave in the price.

By the way, normally, when the news comes out the price is already moving opposite of the expected movement. That is the reason why the advice 'buy the rumor sell the news' was coined. Before something makes it to the news, the rumor is already causing people to act swiftly.

It is interesting to know what kind of calculations you used when you got this figure? For me it is unreal to get a new ATH, more than the previous three times... All the more so in 2021! Bitcoin has a margin, derivatives, futures, Wallstreet after all ... I would have thought of 20K for a start ...

I love being optimistic do not get me wrong I am also a investor in bitcoins for years now but setting sights as high as All-Time-High to be reached within the next year might be exaggeration and sometimes setting such goals might make you panic sell when a small drop happens because I can only think how one must feel when they believe that the ATH will be hit next year and instead a $500 sharp drop happens then such investors must panic sell and now I also understand slowly why so many guys panic sell, that's because of setting expectations too high and not being ready for a realistic drop.

I have good hopes for price next year too but I like to be a little pessimistic about pricing because when I am pessimistic about the price and it drops I never mind as much and would never panic sell but if it rises that gives me real good feeling and a sweet surprise.

Price had left $11000 for good and I believed in the next few days to come we will experience some pullback or retracement i.e price back and forth movement to resistance turned support at $11k before heading to the much anticipated $12K zone it can be within the next few months or weeks, price had already broken that strong resistance at $11K while waiting for history to repeat itself already the price future outlook is on a brighter note with the bulls taken over the market I hope there won't be any price manipulation by the whales or any major hack.

I was going to draw up a line of resistance just above the recent highs, it comes across from the closing weekly bars of 2019 summer high prices.    Daily ranks below weekly for accuracy in theory and also we rose above these prices to 12k some weeks ago which makes me think its not a massive deal exactly or at least its not a simple line in the sand this time.    However price action does appear positive at this moment and we'll see how it develops.



ie. res 11529 closing 1st week of August 2019 or the price we end this week at also.   Its a ladder, closing above various levels helps confirm its continued positive progress like staying above 10500 and using it as a foothold to get here was positive.

those who are bringing up Jack Dorsey here and linking it to the current rise are forgetting that there is a big enough gap between the time that the news about Dorsey's investment came out and when the rise started. historically every single news that had caused any rise had no gaps, meaning the rise starts as soon as the news comes out if not a little sooner (insider information).

so this can't be because of that.

I am not particularly referring to patterns created by Bitcoin on the charts. I am also doubtful about technical analysis same as you. Anybody can create a lot of patterns on a single chart. Not to mention that charts could be zoomed in and zoomed out in terms of minutes, days, weeks, months, years.

The history that I am talking about is the price history. It is just a matter of when Bitcoin will come back at $20,000. It is definitely not a matter of whether it will happen or not. It will happen 100%.

I'm also thinking that whales are waiting for the right time. HYPE can be possible anytime, people are waiting for that so long after seeing it last 2017. But I was not really confident that it happens this year, chances are very slim. Though the market trend seems so strong and the resistance level keeps rising, still it leaves no assurance for huge market growth which I only thinking of $13000 to $14000 range.

It could be anytime now, remember when we are asking the same question when Bitcoin is staying longer in the $9000 and $10000 level but it eventually pulls up, with three months to go anytime could happen I'm very positive that Bitcoin will eventually reach $12000 before the end of the month or next month. 

This move is most likely because its following the correlation with the stock market. Basically Trump beat Covid19 and the stock market indices all closed higher and broke their prior resistance and so did bitcoin.

You should becareful with weekend moves on Bitcoin because sometimes they can easily be traps. So the line in the sand now is the $11100 support area which was previous resistance. If it closes below this area on the weekly chart then its very bearish and we might retest the $10000 area once again.

Currently since its the weekend there isn't much news to go on but the stock market open on Sunday night should give us some direction of what is to come next.

I also believe that it will happen soon. We must use this time to buy more and more bitcoin while we still have time because once the price starts to rally, we will be too late to buy bitcoin at a low price. Perhaps we will not have a chance to buy bitcoin at less than $15k if we decide to buy it later or are afraid of bitcoin price volatility.

But that will depend on each people because we can't force them to just bitcoin and hold it for a while. Perhaps, we can use another strategy to increase the bitcoin amount that we have by trading, so we will have the opportunity to make more bitcoin from trading. But trading will only for people who know about trading and have skills because it will be difficult to analyze the bitcoin price moves.

This is what I'm believing in, if history is going to repeat itself the best time for another all time high is next year 2021 probably second quarter, a year after the last halving it's what the past history tells us and it's what's going to tell us again.

Exactly. My calculations say that the new ATH will be next year July @70k.
So for now sideways with slow growth.
With covid the ATH could come later. We simply don't know....

If we're going to have a strong breakout in the market (I'm not talking about the regular 2% - 5% ups or downs), It would be in 2021. I just have a strong feeling about crypto going even bigger next year. Everytime Bitcoin has made the move towards $12K this year, the number of bitcoin shorts always seems to increase.


Contrary to popular opinions and beliefs, Bitcoin's price doesn't immediately grow immediately after a block reward halving event. My first experience was with the block halving back in 2016. We didn't see a strong upside move until mid 2017 extending to 2018. Mist people who bought into crypto merely for the strong upside move that was promised/hyped about would be disappointed now.

I'm still bullish on bitcoin and there's a high probability of seeing strong moves in the coming year.

Lets say that the price had moved $1000 in a matter of 24 hours then i cant really blame up people not to say that this is already some sort of Fomo.

This had been always the case but these movements neither would break out or would correct itself this is why its really unpredictable to say that we are on a Fomo or a typical or ordinary day
in crypto.

History might or might not repeat itself but at least we do know that it do able to reach those level unexpectedly.We hope that we would see it once again into this market.
Patience would really be mainly tested out and as far as you wait then better to utilize to make profits in short time basis.

I remember that there was a lot of FOMO when we hit $10k, and then that's it, we didn't have a break out run until in the last 24 to 48 hours where the price suddenly broke $11k again and then to resist to go down but instead goes to $11.3. So is this FOMO to $11k? maybe, but perhaps just another step and then we will see another jump to $12k and then it goes on and on again. I think it's just a matter of time again to see another breakout leading to $12k-$14k at the end of the year.

I think that most holders are just tired. They may sound bearish but they're not. If they were bearish they'd sell it long ago.

I'm still holding my coins although 3 years of the price trying to go break above 50% of ATH is getting quite boring if you're not trading anymore.

If you are a trader the last 2 years were a golden opportunity. You just had to follow one simple rule: it goes above 10 thousand - you sell. It goes below 8 - you buy.
The last few months look like the band is tightening and we're going into 10-11 thousand range which suggest an incoming breakout so maybe you're right about that big move next year.

The sooner you all stop being so bearish, the better. Traditional financial investments & fiat currencies are in the dirt, there is only one truly decentralized asset with an infinitely capped supply & that’s BTC.

We’re going to a new ATH & far beyond it next year.

I hope your bags are full because it’s going to be beautiful.

 

^ Nah, that is probably a coincidence. Bitcoin price will never come back or repeat itself, probably it will have similarities of a pattern but it is definitely different from the previous one. I know that this is the most strategy of most traders here, they are looking for the previous chart and plotted to have technical analysis, but that is the wrong perception to me. You probably also take advantage of the daily news towards bitcoin because this brings some impact to the price of the market.

You are right mate, healthy and steady growth of BTC is a lot better if compared to what we saw in old times - big long candles with millions spent to change the momentum of the markets in one go, but times have changed now. And I don't see the to-be-happening pumps as useful to the image of BTC anymore because what BTC has been doing these days, is what we've wanted since the beginning - to get a stable price.

I feel kind of left out when I see discussion backing years back like that of bitcoin trying to break the $200 resistance, just maybe if I did have those experience, I would have had a more positive response to the up and down movement of the market, because I'm just exhausted. The predictions are just contradicting themselves, thought a crash was coming anything soon due to the second of wave of corona or is that off the table for such positive speculations?. Just asking because I already have most of my portfolio in fiat hoping for that $9.5 - $9.8 crash.


I have noticed that too, but sometimes the FOMO just gets too loud that we fall for them. A famous example was the prediction of a massive raise in price after the halving of the block reward event but that wasn't the case. Although many already bought in anticipation of the event, which is why the post halving surge was more profitable than the immediately market reaction after the halving.

I saw in old times that whenever we are extremely positive about the markets that something good is happening, that's when a bad scenario takes place (like if we expect BTC to go higher quickly because of a possible breakout while there are some great news and fundamentals on the table, BTC does exactly opposite by falling hard). It's not the time for BTC to soar like an eagle yet as I think the charts will still paint some stable kinda sticks before a storm strikes in and bangs BTC up towards a new ATH. And TBH, it's not a low supply coin like YFI that was worth shit and now above BTC in terms of price, I see that exchanges have less sell order volumes that needs to be broken to send BTC over $13k which is being looked as a crucial level to break for a healthy bullish sentiment to be back again.

The difference between breaking over 200 dollars or so levels and the difference between breaking over $11k is the fact that we have reached over $20k instead of never reaching above $11k.

We had trouble going over 200 before and I remember those days myself since I was here, going above 200 was something very difficult but at the end it was something hard but managed to do it in the end and finally became higher, that is not what is going on with $11k, we have went over $11k multiple times, hell we were over it just few months ago at most (probably not even 2 months) so at the end of the day there is a big difference. So, we in the end have a different things and even though the idea is the same the results won't be the same, we went over $11k and that is about it we won't suddenly go super higher neither.

This isn't a huge change in the current bitcoin price. We have been always encountering such as volatility, I am considering its just normal behavior of bitcoin nature. Most probably we will not repeat ATH very soon. There is DeFi FOMO currently but unfortunately, we can't see much difference in price trend. On the other hand everyone we know about the current situation of the global economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Stability bitcoin price on current circumstances if blessing for bitcoin user (IMO). At least O not expecting any big move lately before reset the global ecosystem.

I am assuming currently Jack Dorsey’s FOMO going on.

One of Twitter's founder and CEO. The investment was all over the news lately, especially because he's a public figure.


Maybe it does happen, just you never know which part of the history is being repeated 

btc price reaching 11k is already a proof that history can reapeat it self  . price reach 11k last time but it fall and now its here again .  the comeback happened within this year . dont know if what is your preference or maybe you dont consider the small increase ? or you prefer longer year gaps .

who is jack ? influencial guy and he post something about btc ? but investing can always happen without the go signal of those people .

if history loves to repeat itself , it should happen all the time .

Bitcoin's price history is going to come back. That is something definitely happening. But I don't think this is it. It might happen within the year or in the first quarter of next year, we don't know. But this specific sudden rise of the price may not exactly be the cue. I guess this is largely due to the sudden inflow of large investment funds especially Twitter's Jack. We'll see in the coming days if this particular pump holds.

We are getting there. We alao had $500+ before it suddenly dropped to $250 and got stuck for a while. Then it did the same thing as the chart in OP which is what i mean by history loves repeating itself.

@BrewMaster looks like your analysis is not wrong after all because according to an Cointelegraph article investors are moving their bitcoins to cold storage instead of holding it on crypto exchanges. Furthermore they say that this holding pattern points to a similar pattern which was seen in 2017, and it could lead to a bull rally but honestly after so many false positives I’m not sure if that bull rally is actually coming or no.

Source:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-fundamentals-in-moon-mode-as-btc-held-on-exchanges-drops

We already had it above 11 and even above 12 about a month ago so I'm not really getting what's the significance of it hovering around 11 right now. If it stays there for two years and starts feeling like $250 did back in 2015 then we're talking.

Edit: grammar.

FOMO is mostly giving the market that shove needed for the momentum to solidify and keep the trend steady. The small correctuon that comes with that FOMO is nothing to worry about because that is just a correction in an otherwise rising market.
I don't think we need 12.5k, if $11k stays and has a small lift that would be enough.

The fomo makes me feel mixed short term tbh. When it sets in and "greed" arrives, there's often a shake out of those people...

Were only really up to the levels where people were complaining of a fast crash last time also.... We might not just go up from here - if we pass $12.5k then maybe but there's a lot of resistance in both directions and a potential other cme gap to fill (unless it got filled).

We have seen this time and time again and will see it a million more times.
Price is stopped below a certain line and doesn't go above it for long times with multiple attempts to break that line.
That is the nature of always rising bitcoin to always keep going up until it reaches mass adoption.

Here is the most significant case we had in recent history


Now we are back again at another level repeating the same thing. This time at $11000

The real question is when will it break free?
The market seems ready. The whales have accumulated enough and weak hands are getting FOMO_y to start buying again.
I say thinks are looking good...