Topic: History of difficulty? (Read 4035 times)
If you want to be perfect in this field, then you have to try charts. It is helpful in increasing the knowledge about your related field.
It's basically linear until June, then exponential, a straight line on a log chart, thereafter. As long as the number and quality of fabs cranking out ASICs keeps going up, it stays exponential. When that tops out (in late November, at my guess) the increase becomes linear again, or approximately so -- some factors of maturing delivery channels may offer compounding growth for a while, but at a low rate. The interesting question, then, becomes: What will the slope and intercept of that line be? I have no data to estimate KnC or HashFast delivery volumes in Q4. I do have a Cointerra January order numbered #888, which puts that unit roughly in the middle of the 3rd petahash delivered by Cointerra. If KnC and HashFast deliver at a similar rate, scaled by their chip speeds, I'm thinking in terms of a difficulty around 1,200mm in January.
3/1/2013 4,367,876 19.63%
3/14/2013 4,847,647 10.98%
3/24/2013 6,695,826 38.13%
4/5/2013 7,673,000 14.59%
4/17/2013 8,974,296 16.96%
4/29/2013 10,076,293 12.28%
5/12/2013 11,187,257 11.03%
5/26/2013 12,153,411 8.64%
6/5/2013 15,605,633 28.41%
6/19/2013 19,339,258 23.92%
6/29/2013 21,335,329 10.32%
7/11/2013 26,162,875 22.63%
7/22/2013 31,256,960 19.47%
8/5/2013 37,390,000 19.62%
8/13/2013 50,810,000 35.89%
8/25/2013 65,750,060 29.40%
9/4/2013 86,933,017 32.22%
9/14/2013 112,628,548 29.56%
3/14/2013 4,847,647 10.98%
3/24/2013 6,695,826 38.13%
4/5/2013 7,673,000 14.59%
4/17/2013 8,974,296 16.96%
4/29/2013 10,076,293 12.28%
5/12/2013 11,187,257 11.03%
5/26/2013 12,153,411 8.64%
6/5/2013 15,605,633 28.41%
6/19/2013 19,339,258 23.92%
6/29/2013 21,335,329 10.32%
7/11/2013 26,162,875 22.63%
7/22/2013 31,256,960 19.47%
8/5/2013 37,390,000 19.62%
8/13/2013 50,810,000 35.89%
8/25/2013 65,750,060 29.40%
9/4/2013 86,933,017 32.22%
9/14/2013 112,628,548 29.56%
Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.
It always can get more worse...
13-07-2010 93.11%
16-07-2010 300.04%
Or sometimes it can get better...
15-08-2011 -4.40%
30-08-2011 -1.55%
13-09-2011 -1.26%
27-09-2011 -3.76%
14-10-2011 -13.09%
31-10-2011 -18.03%
14-11-2011 -0.91%
29-11-2011 -8.54%
You'll never now...
It still doesn't stop me from mining!
Good stuff Steven, thank you!
Difficulty spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc
It was actually just a bit worse in April -- but certainly now near the lowest levels seen.
- http://tvori.info/bitcoin/charts (see the second chart, "all time". Profit charted in green.)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc
I think mining is dead meat:
It was actually just a bit worse in April -- but certainly now near the lowest levels seen.
- http://tvori.info/bitcoin/charts (see the second chart, "all time". Profit charted in green.)
Those charts are awesome!
Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.
No need to worry, this next increase looks to only be 1.5 million from the current 1.3 million. Yeah, it's bad, but not a another double... thank goodness.
Thank You!
I think mining is dead meat:
05-Feb 40.24%
15-Feb 52.47%
25-Feb 37.06%
05-Mar -9.47%
05-Apr 19.38%
20-Apr 12.15%
30-Apr 18.76%
05-May 43.54%
15-May 55.07%
20-May 78.15%
05-Jul 30.44%
15-Jul 54.59%
20-Jul 57.27%
The dates are my rough calculations from eyeballing the graph:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png
The percentages are increases in dificulty from the previous difficulty number.
Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.
I think mining is dead meat:
05-Feb 40.24%
15-Feb 52.47%
25-Feb 37.06%
05-Mar -9.47%
05-Apr 19.38%
20-Apr 12.15%
30-Apr 18.76%
05-May 43.54%
15-May 55.07%
20-May 78.15%
05-Jul 30.44%
15-Jul 54.59%
20-Jul 57.27%
The dates are my rough calculations from eyeballing the graph:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png
The percentages are increases in dificulty from the previous difficulty number.
Damn, I was really looking forward to mining.
try here for a chart
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
or this query on the block explorer site will give you the raw data (you can save it as a .csv and then open in a spreadsheet app)
http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
or this query on the block explorer site will give you the raw data (you can save it as a .csv and then open in a spreadsheet app)
http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016
I have searched this site and the web in general for some numerical history of difficulty to no avail.
I have a small test rig that over the course of a week has generated 50% less BTC/day at the end of the first week.
Does that mean that difficulty is increasing by a factor of 2 everry week? If so I have no interest in mining gear.
According to my rough calculations anything over 5%/week increase in difficulty makes mining unprofitable.
Does anyone know where I can find numerical values for difficulty increases over the last 3-6 months? Or a chart?
Thanks!
I have a small test rig that over the course of a week has generated 50% less BTC/day at the end of the first week.
Does that mean that difficulty is increasing by a factor of 2 everry week? If so I have no interest in mining gear.
According to my rough calculations anything over 5%/week increase in difficulty makes mining unprofitable.
Does anyone know where I can find numerical values for difficulty increases over the last 3-6 months? Or a chart?
Thanks!
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