Topic: Housing bubble in Australia (Read 1907 times)
Another point is that Australia had no crisis for longest time period on the world, which makes the price adjustments(lowering) do not find place in the whole market. Australia had this long streak of crisis proof economy through foreign investments. Foreign housing investments(especially from china) inflates this balloon. I believe that Australia would not be able to keep up with current prices in 2-3 years and a burst would happen. I am not an Australia expert, so i do not really know in which state Australian housing bubble is.
Bubbles are caused by cheap credit. See US after dot com implosion - rates were lowered way too much for way too long. The advent of MBS's meant that loan originators didn't have to 'keep' the loans on their books anymore - they sold them on (for fees) to bigger institutions, who packaged them into MBS's (for fees) and sold them off. Not wanting to lose their fees (and bonuses), participants all the way up the line found ways to keep making / packaging / selling more and more loans to more and more borderline customers (who were either greedy, liars or duped).
The common sentiment was that housing could not crash nationwide as it had never done so before, and further, there were only a handful of people who actually understood how the housing bond market worked. Even CEO's of the biggest funds had no idea. They just knew packaging them up and selling them on was very very profitable.
Australia survived the 2008 meltdown, largely due to Chinese stimulus and demand for resources. However it did see an eventual drop in interest rates as global demand slowed in every sector apart from mining. Wage growth has gone nowhere even close to matching house price growth. Low wages hasn't led to less real estate being bought, it has seen people go into more and more debt (check out household debt to gdp stats). Credit is cheap and easy to get. The upswing in housing prices comes from record interest rate lows coupled with a stable job market (now ex perth, Darwin). Wages may not have gone up in years but the cost of servicing a loan has lowered (until recently) - even when you traded off low rates vs price increases.
The problem for Sydney now is that yields are well below inflation, so there is no logical reason to buy as an investor other than chasing capital gains. it is a mania, and has become so unaffordable that a large % of wages now go to mortgage debt. The result is that the retail sector is dying. Rents are high but demand is weak because most of it goes to paying off the banks.
If rates were to rise even 1%, around 20% of households would be screwed, in severe mortgage stress. Australia doesn't control the wholesale rate it pays for credit, that it mostly driven by the wholesale markets. On top of that, Australia's banks are heavily weighted towards residential mortgages, some have over 40% assets in interest only loans and property makes up nearly half of the banks assets. Its an accident waiting to happen.
The common sentiment was that housing could not crash nationwide as it had never done so before, and further, there were only a handful of people who actually understood how the housing bond market worked. Even CEO's of the biggest funds had no idea. They just knew packaging them up and selling them on was very very profitable.
Australia survived the 2008 meltdown, largely due to Chinese stimulus and demand for resources. However it did see an eventual drop in interest rates as global demand slowed in every sector apart from mining. Wage growth has gone nowhere even close to matching house price growth. Low wages hasn't led to less real estate being bought, it has seen people go into more and more debt (check out household debt to gdp stats). Credit is cheap and easy to get. The upswing in housing prices comes from record interest rate lows coupled with a stable job market (now ex perth, Darwin). Wages may not have gone up in years but the cost of servicing a loan has lowered (until recently) - even when you traded off low rates vs price increases.
The problem for Sydney now is that yields are well below inflation, so there is no logical reason to buy as an investor other than chasing capital gains. it is a mania, and has become so unaffordable that a large % of wages now go to mortgage debt. The result is that the retail sector is dying. Rents are high but demand is weak because most of it goes to paying off the banks.
If rates were to rise even 1%, around 20% of households would be screwed, in severe mortgage stress. Australia doesn't control the wholesale rate it pays for credit, that it mostly driven by the wholesale markets. On top of that, Australia's banks are heavily weighted towards residential mortgages, some have over 40% assets in interest only loans and property makes up nearly half of the banks assets. Its an accident waiting to happen.
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Home loan standards are being reduced worldwide as a form of damage control to compensate for falling wages.
Cheap credit isn't a primary cause, its a symptom of underlying issues involving growing wealth and wage inequality, a higher inefficient tax burden strangling economic growth and prosperity with increasingly restrictive regulations which strangle the livelihood of small businesses we rely upon to create jobs.
Credit & debt are always the cause.
The credit boom has been ongoing since the 80's, while cheap credit via low interest rates has been touted as the solution for any popping bubble thanks to the actions of Greenspan post dotcom bust - he lowered rates to entice spending, kept them low for too long, leading to the housing bust - what assets benefit from cheap credit? Real estate, stocks and retail spending.
Post 08 when Greenspans folly came home to roost, Bernanke did the same thing, going ZIRP. For countries that were not affected or who benefitted from China's infrastructure boom (Australia, Canada), low rates and a stable job market has seen parabolic price growth in housing.
In Sydney & Mebourne, saving for a deposit is extremely hard for anyone without parental help. Then, most get in with interest only loans, meaning that capital gains is there main priority.
BTW, wealth and wage inequality are a result of globalisation; the reduction in tariffs back in the day by the WTO cancelled out the main stumbling block for companies to not keep workplace and workforce in country. After they were reduced, companies packed up and headed to cheaper labour destinations (China esp). This is why you have the rust belt in the US and such disaffection in the UK and Europe where industries left families, towns etc decimated. No more 'job for life', the old manufacturing staples of middle class life fucked off in a generation.
Couple this with deregulation of finance, lobbying overtaking politics and a number of other trends, then you see the destruction of the middle class which goes a long way to explaining the wealth and income gap.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Have you done a "big short" kind of research ? Have you visited abandoned neighbourhoods ? Have you heard people getting unusual credits ? Have you heard people giving unusual credits ? If so, how many ?
I believe you, but you can't just say it's a bubble because the sector is growing fast. Where I live it's the same, but it's mainly because of the chinese coming here to live, and other countries like Brazil and centre of Europe where is becoming more and more insecure.
Here's some boots on the ground research, from a year or two ago but the signs are there + many more example of loan fraud continue to pop up (see the work of LF economics).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roNbsqxemyI
You would have to be mad to buy in Sydney at the moment. The risk / return is awful, yield is paltry (less than bank deposits). While I have no doubt that prices can run a lot further up, I think there is an equally good chance that they don't.
This kind of bubble led in India to restricted building of single homes. That is a builder or civil engineer or even land holder can not build house for single family. They can build either apartments or society or row houses so that more families can reside in single home. This will decrease the demand of house requirements due increase build up area. So such project implementation can help make it healthy to invest into future. Due to this costs of houses are also decreased.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
That bubble is going to burst, one of the things you need to understand is those bubble go for very long time because they are fueled by cheap credit, but at some point there will not be a way to sell all those houses and bad credits will be given to people that will never be able to pay them. More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Thanks for the responses guys, appreciate it.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
It'll be extremely hard to follow.
In my opinion i would honestly just build more houses to build the demand. The government can build outwards into nearby cities and make sure that the infrustructure is actually functional so that people can actually have incentive to live there.
Restricting the amount of property per person or charging a tax never works, and it's proven in china. There will always be legal loopholes no matter what, unless you apply to everyone which is quite unfair. Property can be a good hedge against inflation in some cases as well, and some legit home owners need multiple houses/apartments as well.
If government can subsidize housing in nearby areas, and more importantly, make sure that there are certain attractions such as employment etc. to back up the area then the problem will self resolve.
Not sure if you're talking about Toronto, but depending on the government to provide functional infrastructure (especially transportation) to nearby cities is a joke. Our city's current transportation system is maybe 30 years behind where it needs to be right now, let alone supporting other cities.
Two ways to go though. One is your approach - to have urban sprawl, and the other is to add density and build vertical. Both are happening. If we could just get out of artificially low interest rates, speculative real estate purchases would be greatly reduced.
This is an interesting pic to look at, i would have never thought that Toronto transport would be so bad.
Though i'm talking about Australia here. There aren't that many australians on here so i guess it's hard to relate. Yes, an urban sprawl could help, and so could higher buildings. But the thing is nobody wants to live in far away areas. We need more CBD areas to attract home buyers in the area and better transport....
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
It'll be extremely hard to follow.
In my opinion i would honestly just build more houses to build the demand. The government can build outwards into nearby cities and make sure that the infrustructure is actually functional so that people can actually have incentive to live there.
Restricting the amount of property per person or charging a tax never works, and it's proven in china. There will always be legal loopholes no matter what, unless you apply to everyone which is quite unfair. Property can be a good hedge against inflation in some cases as well, and some legit home owners need multiple houses/apartments as well.
If government can subsidize housing in nearby areas, and more importantly, make sure that there are certain attractions such as employment etc. to back up the area then the problem will self resolve.
Not sure if you're talking about Toronto, but depending on the government to provide functional infrastructure (especially transportation) to nearby cities is a joke. Our city's current transportation system is maybe 30 years behind where it needs to be right now, let alone supporting other cities.
Two ways to go though. One is your approach - to have urban sprawl, and the other is to add density and build vertical. Both are happening. If we could just get out of artificially low interest rates, speculative real estate purchases would be greatly reduced.
This is an interesting pic to look at, i would have never thought that Toronto transport would be so bad.
Though i'm talking about Australia here. There aren't that many australians on here so i guess it's hard to relate. Yes, an urban sprawl could help, and so could higher buildings. But the thing is nobody wants to live in far away areas. We need more CBD areas to attract home buyers in the area and better transport....
Yeah our subway system doesn't reach very far.
Which city do you live in?
Some people don't mind living far from the city, in fact some people don't like the city at all, and they live in the suburbs with a lot more space.
Thanks for the responses guys, appreciate it.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
It'll be extremely hard to follow.
In my opinion i would honestly just build more houses to build the demand. The government can build outwards into nearby cities and make sure that the infrustructure is actually functional so that people can actually have incentive to live there.
Restricting the amount of property per person or charging a tax never works, and it's proven in china. There will always be legal loopholes no matter what, unless you apply to everyone which is quite unfair. Property can be a good hedge against inflation in some cases as well, and some legit home owners need multiple houses/apartments as well.
If government can subsidize housing in nearby areas, and more importantly, make sure that there are certain attractions such as employment etc. to back up the area then the problem will self resolve.
Not sure if you're talking about Toronto, but depending on the government to provide functional infrastructure (especially transportation) to nearby cities is a joke. Our city's current transportation system is maybe 30 years behind where it needs to be right now, let alone supporting other cities.
Two ways to go though. One is your approach - to have urban sprawl, and the other is to add density and build vertical. Both are happening. If we could just get out of artificially low interest rates, speculative real estate purchases would be greatly reduced.
This is an interesting pic to look at, i would have never thought that Toronto transport would be so bad.
Though i'm talking about Australia here. There aren't that many australians on here so i guess it's hard to relate. Yes, an urban sprawl could help, and so could higher buildings. But the thing is nobody wants to live in far away areas. We need more CBD areas to attract home buyers in the area and better transport....
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
It'll be extremely hard to follow.
In my opinion i would honestly just build more houses to build the demand. The government can build outwards into nearby cities and make sure that the infrustructure is actually functional so that people can actually have incentive to live there.
Restricting the amount of property per person or charging a tax never works, and it's proven in china. There will always be legal loopholes no matter what, unless you apply to everyone which is quite unfair. Property can be a good hedge against inflation in some cases as well, and some legit home owners need multiple houses/apartments as well.
If government can subsidize housing in nearby areas, and more importantly, make sure that there are certain attractions such as employment etc. to back up the area then the problem will self resolve.
Not sure if you're talking about Toronto, but depending on the government to provide functional infrastructure (especially transportation) to nearby cities is a joke. Our city's current transportation system is maybe 30 years behind where it needs to be right now, let alone supporting other cities.
Two ways to go though. One is your approach - to have urban sprawl, and the other is to add density and build vertical. Both are happening. If we could just get out of artificially low interest rates, speculative real estate purchases would be greatly reduced.
This is an interesting pic to look at, i would have never thought that Toronto transport would be so bad.
Though i'm talking about Australia here. There aren't that many australians on here so i guess it's hard to relate. Yes, an urban sprawl could help, and so could higher buildings. But the thing is nobody wants to live in far away areas. We need more CBD areas to attract home buyers in the area and better transport....
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
It'll be extremely hard to follow.
In my opinion i would honestly just build more houses to build the demand. The government can build outwards into nearby cities and make sure that the infrustructure is actually functional so that people can actually have incentive to live there.
Restricting the amount of property per person or charging a tax never works, and it's proven in china. There will always be legal loopholes no matter what, unless you apply to everyone which is quite unfair. Property can be a good hedge against inflation in some cases as well, and some legit home owners need multiple houses/apartments as well.
If government can subsidize housing in nearby areas, and more importantly, make sure that there are certain attractions such as employment etc. to back up the area then the problem will self resolve.
Not sure if you're talking about Toronto, but depending on the government to provide functional infrastructure (especially transportation) to nearby cities is a joke. Our city's current transportation system is maybe 30 years behind where it needs to be right now, let alone supporting other cities.
Two ways to go though. One is your approach - to have urban sprawl, and the other is to add density and build vertical. Both are happening. If we could just get out of artificially low interest rates, speculative real estate purchases would be greatly reduced.
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
It'll be extremely hard to follow.
In my opinion i would honestly just build more houses to build the demand. The government can build outwards into nearby cities and make sure that the infrustructure is actually functional so that people can actually have incentive to live there.
Restricting the amount of property per person or charging a tax never works, and it's proven in china. There will always be legal loopholes no matter what, unless you apply to everyone which is quite unfair. Property can be a good hedge against inflation in some cases as well, and some legit home owners need multiple houses/apartments as well.
If government can subsidize housing in nearby areas, and more importantly, make sure that there are certain attractions such as employment etc. to back up the area then the problem will self resolve.
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
Interesting. I wonder what the criteria is to actually enforce that. I don't think the city has any clue as to which properties are vacant and which aren't.
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
ah yes, those were two separate trains of thought, the vacant home tax right now is 1%.
I don't think there's a bubble when it comes realty. The simple demand and supply will be the real reason why investors loves to invest to house and lot. It's a basic need of human being and it's a normal movement of pricing for a house and lot. And well it's everyone's dream to have house so he has the right to buy as many as he can and the government will be on their favor as they will pay tax.
Yes you got the point here and a lot of people think the way you do. But there are more and more houses are now going to build but it still need to go just up. It actually dependent on the thinking of the users. And it is really amazing that it is already happening there in earth far away in a well developed and well balanced country Australia. But I guess in our country's people think that either if you don't have a house to yourself even though it is of economic values for you. 
Hey, another Aussie! 
Well, this has been my mind for a couple of months now since I am still looking to buy my first property, while this housing bubble is going on. It is not doubted that the price of housing and land has grown drastically, especially in the last 5 years and especially in Sydney. There has been talk with the government putting a limit on the houses you can own, especially with people owning heaps of properties and investments and renting them out.
What think is going to happen is that the banks will start raising their interest rates and then people will not be able to afford properties, causing the bubble to burst. The real problem with the housing bubble is the never ending waves of foreigners who come to Australia to invest in properties, I think we need some regulation against that to combat the housing bubble and hopefully make the Aussie dream possible again.
Well, this has been my mind for a couple of months now since I am still looking to buy my first property, while this housing bubble is going on. It is not doubted that the price of housing and land has grown drastically, especially in the last 5 years and especially in Sydney. There has been talk with the government putting a limit on the houses you can own, especially with people owning heaps of properties and investments and renting them out. What think is going to happen is that the banks will start raising their interest rates and then people will not be able to afford properties, causing the bubble to burst. The real problem with the housing bubble is the never ending waves of foreigners who come to Australia to invest in properties, I think we need some regulation against that to combat the housing bubble and hopefully make the Aussie dream possible again.
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
Good example of states continuing to raise taxes in an attempt to tax their way out of debt, rather than reduce spending.
That could represent one key point proving: fiat is a bubble.
Continual tax hikes with no attempt to cut deficit will inevitably lead to a spectacular crash.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
G,day magneto, I live in Sydney and I know what you mean more than anyone. I bought a property in Yr 2000 for $230,000 and sold it in 2008 for $460,000, believe it or not I regret selling. Its impossible to get back into the market. I am waiting for either litecoin to go to $300AUD
or BTC to go to $10,000AUD 
and I'll be able to afford a house outright. Currently I live as far away from the city as possible and have a 2 hour commute to work (each way). sheesh!!Regarding your Question about the housing bubble, I cannot see it bursting in my city or Melbourne due to the fkd up governments not releasing land. There is better news for QLD, WA and ADL as housing becomes more realistic. People have been saying for decades about the bubble bursting and it hasn't and wont happen. It will take a major crisis one of which hasnt been seen in the last 50yrs.
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
I'll have to double check, but I think those were two separate things. Foreign buyer tax is 15%. The vacant-home tax is what you're referring to.
Well something that they are doing in Vancouver, and now Toronto is that they implement a foreign buyers tax, which is essentially a fine that buyers have to pay for every year their houses remain vacated.
In this government can't make strict regulations, because people are building with their own earnings and hoping for a bigger Profiting. What the government can do is just make the taxation heavier with the person having ownership for two or more houses.
The government is in control of how much debt can be accessed, and somewhat tied to the cost of that debt. Those two things on top of personal capital dictates what is "affordable". As the interest rate has been artificially low for awhile, the cost of debt is low, so it's easy to service and affordability artificially increases (given the same net worth, you can spend or invest more money). This increases speculative behaviour because the cost for doing so is low. So here we are, where speculators win and savers lose. Government created this economic state and can change it, but I don't see that happening because the wealthy benefit the most from it.
Australia is very attractive country. Moreover, it is an island country which area is limited. Property prices in Australia can be high for this reason. I would gladly move there to live, but I have no money to afford it.
This could also be one of the reasons. Australia's interior is a desert and so most of the cities are clumped around the coastal areas mostly on the eastern side. Most of the desirable land is there so despite Australia's size, we can say that it's expected that price of land will further increase.
Australia is very attractive country. Moreover, it is an island country which area is limited. Property prices in Australia can be high for this reason. I would gladly move there to live, but I have no money to afford it.
This could also be one of the reasons. Australia's interior is a desert and so most of the cities are clumped around the coastal areas mostly on the eastern side. Most of the desirable land is there so despite Australia's size, we can say that it's expected that price of land will further increase.
Theres nothing the government can do as they are beholden to the bankers. Do you remember what Obama did during the financial crisis of 2008? Instead of leaving it alone and let the depression take its course, he allowed the US treasury and the Federal Reserve to pump more money in the system by bailing the fraudsters out. Why? Because hes up for reelection.
The government just decided to print more money so those who are responsible for the problem can be rewarded with new money and just let the future taxpayers bear the burden of the problem. This kind of mentality can result into more economic woes later...it can possibly solve the whole thing from collapsing but the side-effects can be seen years after the solutions are executed.
When the economic system is based on greed and over-speculation there comes a time when the bubble will really pop as the whole thing can't be stretched any longer. Unfortunately, even the government can sometimes be tied and those in power can just be letting things happen and will only be reactive rather than be pro-active for fear of being not politically correct.
It's not just in Australia, on Discovery Channel I watched about real estates that cost 2 millions, 3 millions. Everyone not involved in tech is still trying to survive in the area, and it’s expensive for them too. When will it pop, who can tell, how high prices can go, who knows, will it ever pop? Anyone who gives this much money for a real estate is crazy, this is too much, I would go to pension with this money, I would take care of everything and I would enjoy until the test of my life.
I don't think there's a bubble when it comes realty. The simple demand and supply will be the real reason why investors loves to invest to house and lot. It's a basic need of human being and it's a normal movement of pricing for a house and lot. And well it's everyone's dream to have house so he has the right to buy as many as he can and the government will be on their favor as they will pay tax.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
I won’t call it a bubble because there is the demand and availability factor. The scenario is not only in Australia but also all across the developing nations and the business has grown significantly big as in the last few years. Many experts are predicting the continuation of this trend for decades. So, it cannot be a bubble and it may not burst in near future too.More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Bubble or not, better prepare for this so you won't get caught of guard. Hopefully it won't go so bad that people would be kicked out of their houses.
If it does fall, maybe you can take advantage of it and snag the cheaper houses. People who rent out houses would not have any problem since people would always need a roof over their head. When one can no longer afford the rent, someone who is looking for a more affordable place can move in. Best to have houses for different budgets.
Now that's troubling. Do Western countries have protectionist policies when it comes to land ownership? In my country you are mostly required to be a naturalized citizen or at least married to a citizen, to be able to buy land.
If it does fall, maybe you can take advantage of it and snag the cheaper houses. People who rent out houses would not have any problem since people would always need a roof over their head. When one can no longer afford the rent, someone who is looking for a more affordable place can move in. Best to have houses for different budgets.
Unless the Australian government bans real estate sales to foreigners, the bubble will never pop. Most of the buyers are Chinese and there is no shortage of Chinese population. They will zergrush your homeland till it becomes another China state. Good luck. 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-01/australia-has-worlds-worst-money-laundering-property-market
China...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-01/australia-has-worlds-worst-money-laundering-property-market
China...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs
Now that's troubling. Do Western countries have protectionist policies when it comes to land ownership? In my country you are mostly required to be a naturalized citizen or at least married to a citizen, to be able to buy land.
People have right to buy many house as much as he/she can.
Investing on bitcoin for buying house may be a wise decision since bitcoin able be more valuable than gold. Buying house with bitcoin also increase bitcoin network world wide !
Investing on bitcoin for buying house may be a wise decision since bitcoin able be more valuable than gold. Buying house with bitcoin also increase bitcoin network world wide !
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Have you done a "big short" kind of research ? Have you visited abandoned neighbourhoods ? Have you heard people getting unusual credits ? Have you heard people giving unusual credits ? If so, how many ?
I believe you, but you can't just say it's a bubble because the sector is growing fast. Where I live it's the same, but it's mainly because of the chinese coming here to live, and other countries like Brazil and centre of Europe where is becoming more and more insecure.
It should also be considered that there are more factors than just housing now; there is a huge, huge amount of student debt present which is held as a government asset, and we're seeing a lot of people not being able to pay said debts and you can see those people losing their shit in the streets, even online they're talking constantly about how they're unable to pay denbts. The government might experience the collapse of the student loan market, and they can only try to bail out themselves.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
I won’t call it a bubble because there is the demand and availability factor. The scenario is not only in Australia but also all across the developing nations and the business has grown significantly big as in the last few years. Many experts are predicting the continuation of this trend for decades. So, it cannot be a bubble and it may not burst in near future too.More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Australia is very attractive country. Moreover, it is an island country which area is limited. Property prices in Australia can be high for this reason. I would gladly move there to live, but I have no money to afford it.
so do I, that place will be a such wonderful one if happen that i'll be able to succeed with my investment thru crypto currency i will surely go to that country and live for a while, hoping for this dream to come.
Australia is very attractive country. Moreover, it is an island country which area is limited. Property prices in Australia can be high for this reason. I would gladly move there to live, but I have no money to afford it.
It will become more and more difficult to see a big market crash after 2008, because if it happens, every government, central banks and financial institutions know they will suffer like never before. I think you know why...
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Have you done a "big short" kind of research ? Have you visited abandoned neighbourhoods ? Have you heard people getting unusual credits ? Have you heard people giving unusual credits ? If so, how many ?
I believe you, but you can't just say it's a bubble because the sector is growing fast. Where I live it's the same, but it's mainly because of the chinese coming here to live, and other countries like Brazil and centre of Europe where is becoming more and more insecure.
i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about.
which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
I think he is talking about Australia,the real estate prices are in a sort of bubble and i hope it will calm down pretty soon as it cannot go up further,congrats on making it big with bitcoin,may i ask how much you have invested in bitcoin for you to be able to purchase a house and when did you invest. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
no we don't all know that!
i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about. for example where i live (which i don't mention it either
) the real estate market has been down for at least 6 months with prices falling even.
it usually is an economical thing and is directly related to how developed or underdeveloped the country is. in developing countries the real estate is usually hot and price are rising. some even consider it a good investment. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
Yes, it varies from region to region and from country to country but in a general perspective if we talk about the real estate business it is the best business in the world with the high profit margin. On the top is the business of ammunition which gives you the top money making margin in the world which is useless I guess, we should stop supporting it.i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about. for example where i live (which i don't mention it either
) the real estate market has been down for at least 6 months with prices falling even. it usually is an economical thing and is directly related to how developed or underdeveloped the country is. in developing countries the real estate is usually hot and price are rising. some even consider it a good investment. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
Anyway coming back to the real issue that this is one of the best revenue generation businesses for the government and the governments always favor this business to support it and it is good for the citizens as well.
In this government can't make strict regulations, because people are building with their own earnings and hoping for a bigger Profiting. What the government can do is just make the taxation heavier with the person having ownership for two or more houses.
Bubbles are caused by cheap credit. See US after dot com implosion - rates were lowered way too much for way too long. The advent of MBS's meant that loan originators didn't have to 'keep' the loans on their books anymore - they sold them on (for fees) to bigger institutions, who packaged them into MBS's (for fees) and sold them off. Not wanting to lose their fees (and bonuses), participants all the way up the line found ways to keep making / packaging / selling more and more loans to more and more borderline customers (who were either greedy, liars or duped).
The common sentiment was that housing could not crash nationwide as it had never done so before, and further, there were only a handful of people who actually understood how the housing bond market worked. Even CEO's of the biggest funds had no idea. They just knew packaging them up and selling them on was very very profitable.
Australia survived the 2008 meltdown, largely due to Chinese stimulus and demand for resources. However it did see an eventual drop in interest rates as global demand slowed in every sector apart from mining. Wage growth has gone nowhere even close to matching house price growth. Low wages hasn't led to less real estate being bought, it has seen people go into more and more debt (check out household debt to gdp stats). Credit is cheap and easy to get. The upswing in housing prices comes from record interest rate lows coupled with a stable job market (now ex perth, Darwin). Wages may not have gone up in years but the cost of servicing a loan has lowered (until recently) - even when you traded off low rates vs price increases.
The problem for Sydney now is that yields are well below inflation, so there is no logical reason to buy as an investor other than chasing capital gains. it is a mania, and has become so unaffordable that a large % of wages now go to mortgage debt. The result is that the retail sector is dying. Rents are high but demand is weak because most of it goes to paying off the banks.
If rates were to rise even 1%, around 20% of households would be screwed, in severe mortgage stress. Australia doesn't control the wholesale rate it pays for credit, that it mostly driven by the wholesale markets. On top of that, Australia's banks are heavily weighted towards residential mortgages, some have over 40% assets in interest only loans and property makes up nearly half of the banks assets. Its an accident waiting to happen.
The common sentiment was that housing could not crash nationwide as it had never done so before, and further, there were only a handful of people who actually understood how the housing bond market worked. Even CEO's of the biggest funds had no idea. They just knew packaging them up and selling them on was very very profitable.
Australia survived the 2008 meltdown, largely due to Chinese stimulus and demand for resources. However it did see an eventual drop in interest rates as global demand slowed in every sector apart from mining. Wage growth has gone nowhere even close to matching house price growth. Low wages hasn't led to less real estate being bought, it has seen people go into more and more debt (check out household debt to gdp stats). Credit is cheap and easy to get. The upswing in housing prices comes from record interest rate lows coupled with a stable job market (now ex perth, Darwin). Wages may not have gone up in years but the cost of servicing a loan has lowered (until recently) - even when you traded off low rates vs price increases.
The problem for Sydney now is that yields are well below inflation, so there is no logical reason to buy as an investor other than chasing capital gains. it is a mania, and has become so unaffordable that a large % of wages now go to mortgage debt. The result is that the retail sector is dying. Rents are high but demand is weak because most of it goes to paying off the banks.
If rates were to rise even 1%, around 20% of households would be screwed, in severe mortgage stress. Australia doesn't control the wholesale rate it pays for credit, that it mostly driven by the wholesale markets. On top of that, Australia's banks are heavily weighted towards residential mortgages, some have over 40% assets in interest only loans and property makes up nearly half of the banks assets. Its an accident waiting to happen.
................
Home loan standards are being reduced worldwide as a form of damage control to compensate for falling wages.
Cheap credit isn't a primary cause, its a symptom of underlying issues involving growing wealth and wage inequality, a higher inefficient tax burden strangling economic growth and prosperity with increasingly restrictive regulations which strangle the livelihood of small businesses we rely upon to create jobs.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Anyone should be able to acquire as much property as one wants.
Also, bubbles are actually a side effect of capitalism and when the bubble pops, it gives room to new investors/people to get into the market.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
This is a genuine problem everywhere nowadays not only in Australia. However this is not something that the government should restrict, like every other commodity or asset the inflation in the prices of houses as well. We cannot say that the only reason for the increase in the price of a house is because people are holding more than one or many at the same time. More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
The real estate is a business where you have to do this all and the investors in the real estate business are doing the right thing for their future. Also if someone is wealthy enough that he can afford more than one house I guess there is nothing wrong in it.
I don’t think the government will play any such role like restricting it to one house per person.
Australia, as you now, is one of the countries that hasn't had any economic/financial crisis since 1991. And such news is very interesting.
World economic crisis 2008 started from housing bubble.
World economic crisis 2008 started from housing bubble.
Unless the Australian government bans real estate sales to foreigners, the bubble will never pop. Most of the buyers are Chinese and there is no shortage of Chinese population. They will zergrush your homeland till it becomes another China state. Good luck.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-01/australia-has-worlds-worst-money-laundering-property-market
China...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-01/australia-has-worlds-worst-money-laundering-property-market
China...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs
It's not just in Australia. Property in general in Asia and even in Europe are always in some kind of bubble. And when that bubble bursts, it seems they fall 15% maximum before going on the next bubble again. I've been waiting for property/housing to drop in my country, but it seems people just keep holding or dropping slightly below listing, before rising again.
Yes, not only in this property or real estate business, we can see that where ever the involvement of the whales is found the bubbles do arises and the pump and dump is part of the business so it is nothing something huge to be worried about. Looking at the property business the pump and the dump are normally not that huge like the Bitcoin. In the bitcoin when there is a dump the prices go down more than 30-35% while in the real estate this ratio is quite less up to 10% or 15%.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Housing bubbles are caused by the average wage of poor to middle class income brackets declining over time.
Lower wages lead to less homes and real estate being bought. This leads to the average value of real estate declining on reduced demand due to less consumers being able to afford them.
It might be fair to say: housing bubbles are symptomatic of wealth inequality/wage inequality. All of the wage increases which were supposed to go to poor to middle income earners instead went to CEO's. This wealth and wage inequality weakens the economy and creates negative effects such as: housing bubbles.
There are a few different perspectives to the housing issue. The media seldom covers any of the relevent ones.
Bubbles are caused by cheap credit. See US after dot com implosion - rates were lowered way too much for way too long. The advent of MBS's meant that loan originators didn't have to 'keep' the loans on their books anymore - they sold them on (for fees) to bigger institutions, who packaged them into MBS's (for fees) and sold them off. Not wanting to lose their fees (and bonuses), participants all the way up the line found ways to keep making / packaging / selling more and more loans to more and more borderline customers (who were either greedy, liars or duped).
The common sentiment was that housing could not crash nationwide as it had never done so before, and further, there were only a handful of people who actually understood how the housing bond market worked. Even CEO's of the biggest funds had no idea. They just knew packaging them up and selling them on was very very profitable.
Australia survived the 2008 meltdown, largely due to Chinese stimulus and demand for resources. However it did see an eventual drop in interest rates as global demand slowed in every sector apart from mining. Wage growth has gone nowhere even close to matching house price growth. Low wages hasn't led to less real estate being bought, it has seen people go into more and more debt (check out household debt to gdp stats). Credit is cheap and easy to get. The upswing in housing prices comes from record interest rate lows coupled with a stable job market (now ex perth, Darwin). Wages may not have gone up in years but the cost of servicing a loan has lowered (until recently) - even when you traded off low rates vs price increases.
The problem for Sydney now is that yields are well below inflation, so there is no logical reason to buy as an investor other than chasing capital gains. it is a mania, and has become so unaffordable that a large % of wages now go to mortgage debt. The result is that the retail sector is dying. Rents are high but demand is weak because most of it goes to paying off the banks.
If rates were to rise even 1%, around 20% of households would be screwed, in severe mortgage stress. Australia doesn't control the wholesale rate it pays for credit, that it mostly driven by the wholesale markets. On top of that, Australia's banks are heavily weighted towards residential mortgages, some have over 40% assets in interest only loans and property makes up nearly half of the banks assets. Its an accident waiting to happen.
Interest rates will slowly climb over the next year or two, and then people will not be able to afford the houses and the bubble will pop. It happened in 2008. It will happen again.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Housing bubbles are caused by the average wage of poor to middle class income brackets declining over time.
Lower wages lead to less homes and real estate being bought. This leads to the average value of real estate declining on reduced demand due to less consumers being able to afford them.
It might be fair to say: housing bubbles are symptomatic of wealth inequality/wage inequality. All of the wage increases which were supposed to go to poor to middle income earners instead went to CEO's. This wealth and wage inequality weakens the economy and creates negative effects such as: housing bubbles.
There are a few different perspectives to the housing issue. The media seldom covers any of the relevent ones.
It's not just in Australia. Property in general in Asia and even in Europe are always in some kind of bubble. And when that bubble bursts, it seems they fall 15% maximum before going on the next bubble again. I've been waiting for property/housing to drop in my country, but it seems people just keep holding or dropping slightly below listing, before rising again.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
It actually depends on the mentality of the people engaging in it and I am surprised that its happening in far away more advanced country Australia. Over here, the believe was that if you dont have a house to yourself even though its of no economic value to you, you are not an a complete being. And I think that is the mentality over there and the fact that is can stand as collateral is another reason that contributes to that.
Sorry I totally missed the part where you said Australia! I don't know anything about the housing market in Australia, I was talking about the US. Maybe it's similar, idk... you can disregard my comment though haha.
no we don't all know that!
i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about. for example where i live (which i don't mention it either) the real estate market has been down for at least 6 months with prices falling even.
it usually is an economical thing and is directly related to how developed or underdeveloped the country is. in developing countries the real estate is usually hot and price are rising. some even consider it a good investment. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about. for example where i live (which i don't mention it either
) the real estate market has been down for at least 6 months with prices falling even. it usually is an economical thing and is directly related to how developed or underdeveloped the country is. in developing countries the real estate is usually hot and price are rising. some even consider it a good investment. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
Ah, i see. Well i'm talking about australia in general, especially sydney.
It's crazy because the median house price is 1.15 million AUD and there are 80 towns where the median house price is 2 million AUD+, which is crazy. Compared to US's $200,000 as the median house price in the US.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Housing is not a bubble. Our current situation is extremely different from 2008. In 2008, banks were giving out loans to people who were clearly incapable of paying them back, and then selling bonds full of those loans at the same price as bonds that were full of good loans that were much more likely to be paid back... basically there was massive fraud going on. Furthermore, stocks were more expensive then ps-ratio-wise.
Housing prices will be going down soon, but not because they are a bubble... because interest rates are rising and the incoming waves of potential buyers are knee-deep in student debt. This does not mean housing will crash, but rather it means that prices will slowly decline.
Interesting. Maybe this is country specific, as things are definitely too hot over here in Sydney.
no we don't all know that!
i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about. for example where i live (which i don't mention it either) the real estate market has been down for at least 6 months with prices falling even.
it usually is an economical thing and is directly related to how developed or underdeveloped the country is. in developing countries the real estate is usually hot and price are rising. some even consider it a good investment. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
i don't know if you realize this but things are very different in different countries. and you forgot to mention which country you are talking about. for example where i live (which i don't mention it either
) the real estate market has been down for at least 6 months with prices falling even. it usually is an economical thing and is directly related to how developed or underdeveloped the country is. in developing countries the real estate is usually hot and price are rising. some even consider it a good investment. which is why i am going to buy my first house real soon - thanks to bitcoin price rise i have enough money to do it now!
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
Housing is not a bubble. Our current situation is extremely different from 2008. In 2008, banks were giving out loans to people who were clearly incapable of paying them back, and then selling bonds full of those loans at the same price as bonds that were full of good loans that were much more likely to be paid back... basically there was massive fraud going on. Furthermore, stocks were more expensive then ps-ratio-wise.
Housing prices will be going down soon, but not because they are a bubble... because interest rates are rising and the incoming waves of potential buyers are knee-deep in student debt. This does not mean housing will crash, but rather it means that prices will slowly decline.
Theres nothing the government can do as they are beholden to the bankers. Do you remember what Obama did during the financial crisis of 2008? Instead of leaving it alone and let the depression take its course, he allowed the US treasury and the Federal Reserve to pump more money in the system by bailing the fraudsters out. Why? Because hes up for reelection.
As we all know it's getting more and more expensive to buy a house, and the rate of growth currently associated with investing in a house is just phenomenal, and obviously too good to not be a bubble. We all know that. However, WHEN will this bubble pop?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
More and more houses are being built but the demand for it just continues to go up. And many houses are bought and just left to sit there, not even rented out, fueling the problem further because investors just want a safe and profitable investment.
What do you think the governments can do to avoid this? Put a limit on houses per person? Your opinions?
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