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Topic: How $10.5tn in deficit spending will pump Bitcoin to $1m, Arthur Hayes says (Read 192 times)

legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
~snip~
Bitcoin surged to $67,000 on the $4 trillion stimulus package spent during Covid. It was $3,800 at the start of the pandemic ― nearly an 18-fold increase.
Hayes anticipates a similar parabolic surge for Bitcoin if Trump injects $10.5 trillion in stimulus spending to bring the country’s debt back to 2008 levels.
“This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million,” Hayes wrote.


What nonsense this man can write, it's really incredible - because to claim that the stimulus checks that people mostly spent to survive from month to month are in any way responsible for the fact that the price of BTC increased after that has nothing to do with any logic.

So what caused the BTC price to rise from mid-2016 to the end of 2017 - from $400 to $20 000? Maybe Donald was performing some magic tricks in his oval office or there is some other inexplicable phenomenon Roll Eyes

The fascination with numbers is apparently so great that people are willing to write all sorts of nonsense just to get a little attention. Even if the US decides to include BTC in its strategic reserves, it won't happen overnight, nor should it be expected that it will involve millions of BTC - rather, their strategy will be to use the BTC already seized and seize more.

Agreed. Arthur can sometimes write very long dear diaries on his blog hehehe. However, he is more knowledgeable than much of the people in the cryptospace. We cannot make ourselves reckon that much of us small minnows are smarter. His theory on the stimulus checks can be true because did this not cause an inflation and this also helped pump their economy and their markets?

In any case, there is a news update on Arthur Hayes and he predicts that the Donald will devalue the American dollar and this will cause a pump on bitcoin to $250,000.



The overarching theme for 2025 is an acceleration of money printing due to nationalistic economic policies, the chief investment officer for Maelstrom fund told DL News.

“Every nation will put their citizens first, and print money in an attempt to smooth out volatility,” he said.

This will set off a chain reaction of currency devaluation, which Hayes reckons will push investors to seek refuge in alternative assets such as gold, and cryptocurrencies.

“Bitcoin reaches $250,000 by the end of the year,” he told DL News.

Trump will be more aggressive in his monetary policy than other country leaders, Hayes said.

“Trump will massively devalue the dollar versus gold,”


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/arthur-hayes-says-trump-to-devalue-usd-as-bitcoin-to-250k/
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 5637
Blackjack.fun-Free Raffle-Join&Win $50🎲
~snip~
Bitcoin surged to $67,000 on the $4 trillion stimulus package spent during Covid. It was $3,800 at the start of the pandemic ― nearly an 18-fold increase.
Hayes anticipates a similar parabolic surge for Bitcoin if Trump injects $10.5 trillion in stimulus spending to bring the country’s debt back to 2008 levels.
“This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million,” Hayes wrote.


What nonsense this man can write, it's really incredible - because to claim that the stimulus checks that people mostly spent to survive from month to month are in any way responsible for the fact that the price of BTC increased after that has nothing to do with any logic.

So what caused the BTC price to rise from mid-2016 to the end of 2017 - from $400 to $20 000? Maybe Donald was performing some magic tricks in his oval office or there is some other inexplicable phenomenon Roll Eyes

The fascination with numbers is apparently so great that people are willing to write all sorts of nonsense just to get a little attention. Even if the US decides to include BTC in its strategic reserves, it won't happen overnight, nor should it be expected that it will involve millions of BTC - rather, their strategy will be to use the BTC already seized and seize more.
?
Activity: -
Merit: -
I was before very much skeptical against these larpers in the forum who are always declaring that bitcoin will be on $1 million. However, it appears that they might be correct. They might not be larping on this bitcoin to $1 million prediction heheh.

I am still skeptical but I am more open to this $1 million occurrence, not very much similar to before where I reckon this was quite impossible.


Analysts forecast the four largest banks in the world will start offering crypto custody in 2025.

According to Galaxy Research, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) will create a pathway leading to the world’s top four custody banks to offer digital asset services.

These are BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, and Citi. Collectively, they hold more than $12 trillion in assets under management.

It would signal a near-complete acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry as a legitimate asset for traditional finance. Even if 1% of capital from these four banks were to flow into crypto, it would translate to a market capitalisation magnitudes higher than what it is today.


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/worlds-largest-banks-to-custody-crypto-in-2025-say-analysts/

Me too, but I highly doubt it will reach $1M, let alone soon, simply because of USA spending. The creation of the strategic reserve and the point you mentioned I see as more important, and I see it is a combination of all of them that will drive the price to $1M.

When? We don't know but along the way I created a thread to comment.

The BTC to $1M thread (10% reached)

It will happen eventually.
A decade, 1,5 decade, two - but Bitcoin, if the adoption continues (and it probably will), will outperform anybody and everybody out there.
The question is the only time at stake for the target we've put ourselves.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
I was before very much skeptical against these larpers in the forum who are always declaring that bitcoin will be on $1 million. However, it appears that they might be correct. They might not be larping on this bitcoin to $1 million prediction heheh.

I am still skeptical but I am more open to this $1 million occurrence, not very much similar to before where I reckon this was quite impossible.


Analysts forecast the four largest banks in the world will start offering crypto custody in 2025.

According to Galaxy Research, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) will create a pathway leading to the world’s top four custody banks to offer digital asset services.

These are BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, and Citi. Collectively, they hold more than $12 trillion in assets under management.

It would signal a near-complete acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry as a legitimate asset for traditional finance. Even if 1% of capital from these four banks were to flow into crypto, it would translate to a market capitalisation magnitudes higher than what it is today.


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/worlds-largest-banks-to-custody-crypto-in-2025-say-analysts/

Me too, but I highly doubt it will reach $1M, let alone soon, simply because of USA spending. The creation of the strategic reserve and the point you mentioned I see as more important, and I see it is a combination of all of them that will drive the price to $1M.

When? We don't know but along the way I created a thread to comment.

The BTC to $1M thread (10% reached)

legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
If the Swiss central bank buy bitcoin and hold this very much similar to how they are holding gold and other different assets, we can be quite certain that this will very much be another reason on how bitcoin will pump to $1 million.

Their statement is true, however, the reason being given by this bitcoin advocacy group is very headshaking. It appears that they want to the Swiss central bank to listen to them but they are not giving a good reason why except that bitcoin will pump. They want the Swiss central bank to behave like them and gamble? Heheheeheh I would like to witness this heheheheeh.



A group of ten Swiss Bitcoin enthusiasts just kicked off an audacious, years-long campaign to force its central bank buy Bitcoin.

The initiative seeks to amend an article in Switzerland’s constitution to include the $1.8 trillion asset alongside gold as the bank’s currency reserve.

The reason?

High returns, of course.

“All we’re saying is that gold is in the constitution, and Bitcoin is the best-performing asset of the last decade,” Yves Bennaïm, a Swiss scholar behind the initiative and founding member of the non-profit group called 2B4CH, told DL News.

“So why not diversify?”


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/swiss-bitcoin-launch-initiative-to-make-central-bank-buy-bitcoin/
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
I was before very much skeptical against these larpers in the forum who are always declaring that bitcoin will be on $1 million. However, it appears that they might be correct. They might not be larping on this bitcoin to $1 million prediction heheh.

I am still skeptical but I am more open to this $1 million occurrence, not very much similar to before where I reckon this was quite impossible.

-snip-

It's not a larp, it's the truth.
 Cool

Agreed. I am very much slow to accept this information heheheh. However, the skeptical me and the contrarian in me might begin telling myself that if everyone in the forum is in agreement that bitcoin will pump to $1 million, this might not happen or it might take quite a longer time than expected to become a real market occurrence heheheheh.

However yes, I very much like to witness this $1 million because it will certainly make everyone in the forum rich and retire from their jobs.
copper member
Activity: 196
Merit: 6
I was before very much skeptical against these larpers in the forum who are always declaring that bitcoin will be on $1 million. However, it appears that they might be correct. They might not be larping on this bitcoin to $1 million prediction heheh.

I am still skeptical but I am more open to this $1 million occurrence, not very much similar to before where I reckon this was quite impossible.

-snip-

It's not a larp, it's the truth.
 Cool
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
I was before very much skeptical against these larpers in the forum who are always declaring that bitcoin will be on $1 million. However, it appears that they might be correct. They might not be larping on this bitcoin to $1 million prediction heheh.

I am still skeptical but I am more open to this $1 million occurrence, not very much similar to before where I reckon this was quite impossible.



Analysts forecast the four largest banks in the world will start offering crypto custody in 2025.

According to Galaxy Research, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) will create a pathway leading to the world’s top four custody banks to offer digital asset services.

These are BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, and Citi. Collectively, they hold more than $12 trillion in assets under management.

It would signal a near-complete acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry as a legitimate asset for traditional finance. Even if 1% of capital from these four banks were to flow into crypto, it would translate to a market capitalisation magnitudes higher than what it is today.


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/worlds-largest-banks-to-custody-crypto-in-2025-say-analysts/
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
Interesting idea but I dont see how Bitcoin could be a tempting choice compared to the simplicity of producing yet more dollars.   They own the dollars and repay the debt with their own dollars.

  Its alot harder holding to a reserve system based off a currency you dont solely control or have the power to produce more of.  Greece found this out, they were in debt with Euro but largely external to control of new Euro so when weakness caught their economy it spiralled out of control with ever higher demands for rates of that debt.

   Reserves are fine if you have the excess to accumulate, in a small way perhaps this plan works but we all know the gigantic amount of Federal debt that exists already.   It is a towering mountain that can easily overwhelm imo, people have grown used to the friendly mountain of debt in the background but it can erupt and its risks understated from the over familiarity.

 The standing debt is serviceable mostly as its a demand in dollars, on a basic level the supply is in control.   I cant see them ever handing over control of the reserves to what will seem like a 3rd party to national interests.   Of course USA has alot of technology but Im not seeing this plan being feasible from a political perspective personally
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
@JeffBrad12. Agreed! In any case, after the Donald Trump has hired Elon Musk as his head of the department of government efficiency or DOGE, I reckon that he should also hire Michael Saylor as head or as a senior adviser for the Trump administration's plan on their bitcoin reserve.

It also appears that Michael Saylor might have created a roadmap already if the Donald wants to accept this.



After spending the past four years adding Bitcoin to MicroStrategy’s reserves and profiting over $15 billion, Michael Saylor is calling on the United States to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic national asset.

He claims this could bolster the dollar, tackle national debt, and unlock trillions in economic value.

“A strategic digital asset policy can empower millions of businesses, drive growth, and create trillions in value,” Saylor said.


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/michael-saylor-pitches-81-trillion-usd-bitcoin-reserve-plan/
hero member
Activity: 3010
Merit: 538
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
“As the freely traded supply of Bitcoin dwindles, the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven from not just Americans but Chinese, Japanese, and Western Europe,” Hayes wrote on his blog on Tuesday.

Bitcoin surged to $67,000 on the $4 trillion stimulus package spent during Covid. It was $3,800 at the start of the pandemic ― nearly an 18-fold increase.

Hayes anticipates a similar parabolic surge for Bitcoin if Trump injects $10.5 trillion in stimulus spending to bring the country’s debt back to 2008 levels.

“This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million,” Hayes wrote.[/i]

this will happen once the US create strategic bitcoin reserve, the other countries like to follow the path of the US and this will create massive buying pressure in the market.

been shouting about this since $58k and I still stick to my belief that the day will come when every country will have their own bitcoin strategic reserve, like how they hoarded gold. but bitcoin is better, deflationary and capped supply. basically the better version of gold and the money will chase bitcoin from around the world like arthur hayes said.

bitcoin priced at $1m is not hyperbolic when the circulating supply that's in the market decreases over the course of the year, every institutional investors literally hoarding BTC right now.
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
This Arthur Hayes is a comedy person. It was only on November where he mentioned that the Donald Trump's policies will pump bitcoin to $1 million dollars. However, on December he is predicting a big dump on out faces with our mouths open because he speculates that the Donald Trump cannot now change the present policies? Why did not speculate on this on November?
Opinions of such people change according to their interests. If he wants to sell, he will give very optimistic opinions to encourage the upward trend of the currency, and vice versa when he wants to buy. I believe that whoever bought has already bought and the selling phase will start with pumping very positive news about $500,000 to $1 million before we see the big correction.

I speculate that what has occurred before he declares or writes something on social media is he will buy or sell bitcoin or another cryptocoin beforehand then after he has filled his wallet, he will share his predictions.

On November he bought bitcoin. On December he dumped bitcoin. This is becoming much clear that on January he will begin to buy bitcoin before Trump's inauguration hehehe. This is the man who joked to everyone on 2017 to liquidate the traders in Bitmex, where he was CEO, because he needs a new Ferrari heheheheh.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 435
If Bitcoin could be a zero value ($0) from it peak as at 2009 and has been able to gain gradual values to $100K to date, of course there are every possiblities for Bitcoin to price to catch up $1M.

Besides... highily institutions, governments and individuals are facilitating on holding their values and investing on Bitcoin which muchly will give the market the hedge to such appreciating value of $1M.
What I am only skeptical about there is if this $1M can be achieved within the Donald Trumps era of governance.

So my proposed prediction here is that Bitcoin could hit $1M in the future based on the economy structures of Trumps government on the industry.
This means the facilities Trump has built on Bitcoin would have the pace to get this done as time goes but may not be possible to happen in just 4 years of Trumps active regime.
I believe that bitcoin has the potential of getting to $1M in the future too, but not just in the next 4 years. Even though it won't take the number of years it took bitcoin to get to $100k, before it will get to $1M. Expecting bitcoin to get to $1M in the next 4 years of Donald Trump administration is just too much of an expectation. People shouldn't put much pressure on themselves by setting their expectations too high. But anyone saying that bitcoin won't get to $1M in the future is wasting his time. This $1M might be sounding so big right now and looking unrealistic, but let's remember that there was once a time when $100k was looking like that. People should not time bitcoin, but expect everything from bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 265
If Bitcoin could be a zero value ($0) from it peak as at 2009 and has been able to gain gradual values to $100K to date, of course there are every possiblities for Bitcoin to price to catch up $1M.

Besides... highily institutions, governments and individuals are facilitating on holding their values and investing on Bitcoin which muchly will give the market the hedge to such appreciating value of $1M.
What I am only skeptical about there is if this $1M can be achieved within the Donald Trumps era of governance.

So my proposed prediction here is that Bitcoin could hit $1M in the future based on the economy structures of Trumps government on the industry.
This means the facilities Trump has built on Bitcoin would have the pace to get this done as time goes but may not be possible to happen in just 4 years of Trumps active regime.
hero member
Activity: 1568
Merit: 564
Well that could be the next step though, for now it's US and Trump seeing Bitcoin as a strategic national reserved. But maybe in the future, and it might not be that Trump is sitting as the US President, but the next one that might inject that kind of money in the economy and those wise investor going to invest that to Bitcoin to pushes it to at least in the 7 digit.

But it's not going to happen this bull run though, let's just be at least realistic that it won't reach $1 million. But in the future or maybe in the next 2 halvings, could be some billionaires investing or if there are governments around the world that will inject that kind of money in the market that time.
legendary
Activity: 2758
Merit: 4074
This Arthur Hayes is a comedy person. It was only on November where he mentioned that the Donald Trump's policies will pump bitcoin to $1 million dollars. However, on December he is predicting a big dump on out faces with our mouths open because he speculates that the Donald Trump cannot now change the present policies? Why did not speculate on this on November?
Opinions of such people change according to their interests. If he wants to sell, he will give very optimistic opinions to encourage the upward trend of the currency, and vice versa when he wants to buy. I believe that whoever bought has already bought and the selling phase will start with pumping very positive news about $500,000 to $1 million before we see the big correction.
?
Activity: -
Merit: -
BTC will continue to pump due to the rally and sentiment on the market and because there is nothing to stop that currently.
Sure there are dips here and there, but the trend can be seen and felt now - the correction wasn't there as well because we didn't reach the highest point yet (in my opinion).
About Arthur - as you said, he says one thing today and another - tomorrow.
After all, news is here for us to twist and interpret in different ways.
We need more time to see Trump's term in the perspective.
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
This Arthur Hayes is a comedy person. It was only on November where he mentioned that the Donald Trump's policies will pump bitcoin to $1 million dollars. However, on December he is predicting a big dump on our faces with our mouths open because he speculates that the Donald Trump cannot now change the present policies? Why did not speculate on this on November?

Also, this is my prediction. Bitcoin will continue to pump because the waiting of these changes in policies will be more bullish than the changes hehehehehe. Similar to buying the rumor and selling the news.



The gap between the crypto market’s high expectations of the upcoming Trump administration and reality will cause a major crypto sell-off upon Trump’s inauguration, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said in his latest essay.

Hayes, who now manages a family office named Maelstrom, wrote that there are no politically acceptable solutions for Trump to quickly make policy changes widely expected by crypto investors. “The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has at best one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th,” Hayes said. “This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto and other Trump 2.0 equity trades.”


Read in full https://www.theblock.co/post/331348/arthur-hayes-harrowing-dump-trump-crypto
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
This $1 million prediction on the price of bitcoin is very much headshaking from Arthur Hayes, however, I will very much welcome this if bitcoin is on $900k and the community is on the countdown for this occurrence hehehehe.

In any case, what are everyone's arguments on Arthur's prediction? This appears to be very impossible under Trump's administration.



Bitcoin will soar as high as $1 million as US President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies will create the “most fiat money in history.”

That’s according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who says Bitcoin is poised to outperform other asset classes amid the inevitability of the US spending trillions of dollars to service its debt.

“As the freely traded supply of Bitcoin dwindles, the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven from not just Americans but Chinese, Japanese, and Western Europe,” Hayes wrote on his blog on Tuesday.

Bitcoin surged to $67,000 on the $4 trillion stimulus package spent during Covid. It was $3,800 at the start of the pandemic ― nearly an 18-fold increase.

Hayes anticipates a similar parabolic surge for Bitcoin if Trump injects $10.5 trillion in stimulus spending to bring the country’s debt back to 2008 levels.

“This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million,” Hayes wrote.


Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-to-1m-us-stimulus-injection/
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