Topic: How can buying 1Th/s machines now be profitable?!? (Read 5930 times)

Quote from: superresistant on March 24, 2014, 03:52:06 PM

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.
From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.
I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case. Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment. If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up. I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. Wink

Yeah great advice.
Mining is profitable everyone ! Keep buying hardware. Give money to ASIC manufacturers.
They sell you hardware to make you rich of course.

when you invent a quality product, i expect you to sell it to me at cost. Why would i want you to make a profit off me?

its called capilaism. people buy machines at the posted price. some of the prices are low enough that a miner can get a tidy profit. other prices, particularly pre-orders, are overpriced and a bad investment.

I don't understand why everyone who says mining isnt profitable assumes it is a blanket statement as though an antminer is equally bad investment to a BFL product

ionux

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You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.
From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.
I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case. Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment. If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up. I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. Wink

Yeah great advice.
Mining is profitable everyone ! Keep buying hardware. Give money to ASIC manufacturers.
They sell you hardware to make you rich of course.

I'm happily giving money to Bitmain and happily making more in return. It's called "investing".

But, I believe you are referring to all the pre-order crap so many asic companies are doing these days and I agree with that point. Pre-orders are interest-free loans for the hardware makers.

superresistant

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You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.
From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.
I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case. Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment. If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up. I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. Wink

Yeah great advice.
Mining is profitable everyone ! Keep buying hardware. Give money to ASIC manufacturers.
They sell you hardware to make you rich of course.

Syke

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I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case. Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment. If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up. I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. Wink

Huge farms are built on wholesale/at-cost prices. Yes, those are nicely profitable. But retails prices for most miners are much more expensive, and unlikely to turn a profit in a reasonable amount of time.

mrdeposit

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You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.

From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.

I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case. Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment. If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up. I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. Wink

This^^^

ionux

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Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 24, 2014, 12:16:28 PM

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.

From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.

I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case. Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment. If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up. I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. Wink

Trongersoll

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I just read the OP and it occurred to me that the poster doesn't know the meaning of the word "profit". Tongue

klondike_bar

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Quote from: ChuckBuck on March 24, 2014, 11:50:19 AM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 24, 2014, 11:38:22 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk. For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts. I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it. All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out. Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner. And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out. you compare the risk of a pre-order to the price of a product that is actually delivered (which IME creates a profit)

For example, Activemining. Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear. You invested in that right? I did - but i sold all my shares when btct was closing down

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route. Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

What's the warranty on Ants? I see anecdotes here that make me think failure rates are running over 20%. If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses. Absolutely not. failure rates are far lower than 1/10 if not less than 1/40.

Then you have the labor involved in keep acceptable uptime. How many times do you want to drive to your hosting location at 3 am? Do you like the idea of never leaving town on vacation? Or how well do you sleep with the noise and heat and fire risk in your own home? ive set up my farm to run problem-free for days at a time, and with a remotre terminal for when i need to do something simple. Im working on making it weeks between visits, but i just like visiting it anyways

Ants have had a good run. It's probably over now. Mining hardware buys tend to run in cycles. Early on, it's a good move. Then it rapidly swings into losses. If you are naive about what is entailed in running a profitable operation you can easily be losing money without realizing it. antminer pricing is well paced to the bitcoin difficulty. still a good buy at current price, especially if you have coupons

Don't get me wrong, I've been mining at scales >0.5 % of the network for years now. If you made the wrong decisions in 2013, bitcoin appreciation still made you huge profits. Expecting to get bailed out that way again is naive.

ChuckBuck

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Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 24, 2014, 12:16:28 PM

Quote from: ChuckBuck on March 24, 2014, 11:50:19 AM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 24, 2014, 11:38:22 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk. For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts. I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it. All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out. Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner. And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining. Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear. You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route. Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

What's the warranty on Ants? I see anecdotes here that make me think failure rates are running over 20%. If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

Then you have the labor involved in keep acceptable uptime. How many times do you want to drive to your hosting location at 3 am? Do you like the idea of never leaving town on vacation? Or how well do you sleep with the noise and heat and fire risk in your own home?

Ants have had a good run. It's probably over now. Mining hardware buys tend to run in cycles. Early on, it's a good move. Then it rapidly swings into losses. If you are naive about what is entailed in running a profitable operation you can easily be losing money without realizing it.

Don't get me wrong, I've been mining at scales >0.5 % of the network for years now. If you made the wrong decisions in 2013, bitcoin appreciation still made you huge profits. Expecting to get bailed out that way again is naive.

Ants have a 90 Day warranty if you don't overclock them.

Personally I don't have a heat or fire risk in my situation, and always slap an extra fan besides the default Ants come with.

Once they're mining, I don't mess with them. Only time I change anything is to maybe change pools once a week if that.

Did you factor cheap or no electricity costs after you posted?

Entropy-uc

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Quote from: ChuckBuck on March 24, 2014, 11:50:19 AM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 24, 2014, 11:38:22 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk. For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts. I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it. All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out. Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner. And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining. Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear. You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route. Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

What's the warranty on Ants? I see anecdotes here that make me think failure rates are running over 20%. If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

Then you have the labor involved in keep acceptable uptime. How many times do you want to drive to your hosting location at 3 am? Do you like the idea of never leaving town on vacation? Or how well do you sleep with the noise and heat and fire risk in your own home?

Ants have had a good run. It's probably over now. Mining hardware buys tend to run in cycles. Early on, it's a good move. Then it rapidly swings into losses. If you are naive about what is entailed in running a profitable operation you can easily be losing money without realizing it.

Don't get me wrong, I've been mining at scales >0.5 % of the network for years now. If you made the wrong decisions in 2013, bitcoin appreciation still made you huge profits. Expecting to get bailed out that way again is naive.

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 24, 2014, 11:38:22 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk. For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts. I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it. All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out. Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner. And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining. Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear. You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route. Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

Entropy-uc

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Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk. For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts. I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it. All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out. Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner. And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining. Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear. You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: romang on March 24, 2014, 10:01:20 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 09:59:26 AM

ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver

This is true u can buy silver from silvertown and then sell it back on ebay for a profit but the fees eat up most of the profits and ebay only gets richer.

That's the one thing I dread selling anything on eBay is the fees.

Selling anything of value, that 10% plus listing plus reserve really kill any profits you think may be getting.

I hate eBay/Paypal for this among a multitude of reasons.

romang

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Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 09:59:26 AM

ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver

This is true u can buy silver from silvertown and then sell it back on ebay for a profit but the fees eat up most of the profits and ebay only gets richer.

klondike_bar

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ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: superresistant on March 24, 2014, 09:09:46 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

Quote from: superresistant on March 24, 2014, 08:06:23 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 08:55:24 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 06:53:43 PM

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

Yes they are. I've been selling many USB miners at a price that make it impossible to get any return even at current difficulty.
Everyday miners are sold on ebay the same way.

The hardware OP is talking about cannot be profitable.

Most people have no idea how to calculate a return on investment, yet they buy Bitcoin miners.

Not if you buy the right miners, at the right price, from the right sellers/resellers, and in hand only.

Bitmain has disproved the whole preorder notion with their S1s. Their S2's, though 2 week preorder, sold out within hours and should ROI if it's delivered on time beginning of April.

Of course EBay buyers won't ROI, they didn't do their homework! Tongue

superresistant

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Quote from: klondike_bar on March 24, 2014, 08:52:22 AM

Quote from: superresistant on March 24, 2014, 08:06:23 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 08:55:24 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 06:53:43 PM

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

Yes they are. I've been selling many USB miners at a price that make it impossible to get any return even at current difficulty.
Everyday miners are sold on ebay the same way.

The hardware OP is talking about cannot be profitable.

Most people have no idea how to calculate a return on investment, yet they buy Bitcoin miners.

klondike_bar

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Quote from: superresistant on March 24, 2014, 08:06:23 AM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 08:55:24 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 06:53:43 PM

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*
yup - sure are Roll Eyes

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

superresistant

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Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 08:55:24 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 06:53:43 PM

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

klondike_bar

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Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 06:53:43 PM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 03:53:40 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 02:22:59 PM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 02:11:33 PM

Quote from: spazzdla on March 21, 2014, 06:42:40 AM

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

ChuckBuck

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Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 06:53:43 PM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 03:53:40 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 02:22:59 PM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 02:11:33 PM

Quote from: spazzdla on March 21, 2014, 06:42:40 AM

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

But where's the fun in that? Grin

I don't know what it is about mining, but owning even a little hash makes you feel like you're part of something big. The upkeep, the maintenance, the monitoring of hardware makes you feel like you're in charge of your mining datacenter(in alot of cases, yes). The block rewards and chance to ROI are the cherry on the top.

Entropy-uc

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Activity: 756

Merit: 501

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 03:53:40 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 02:22:59 PM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 02:11:33 PM

Quote from: spazzdla on March 21, 2014, 06:42:40 AM

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass. Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

klondike_bar

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1005

ASIC Wannabe

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 23, 2014, 02:22:59 PM

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 02:11:33 PM

Quote from: spazzdla on March 21, 2014, 06:42:40 AM

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

serje

legendary

Activity: 1232

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If I would have 1TH I would go all in in a medium-big sized p2pool!

You will get a block every now and then but you will be 140% sure you will get your coins!

I'm not saying someone will hack btcguild or ghash but maybe they will hack in your account so why bother paying fees and having a risk when you can do it risk free?

Entropy-uc

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 501

Quote from: klondike_bar on March 23, 2014, 02:11:33 PM

Quote from: spazzdla on March 21, 2014, 06:42:40 AM

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

klondike_bar

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1005

ASIC Wannabe