Topic: How deep will we fall before rising again? (Read 1280 times)

I just locked voting. We didn't reach my guess ($70) yet and I hope those who said $80 will be the winners but of course this game might not be over in half a year.
Let me know if you think I should open voting again. The vote count is low but it's also kind of stupid to let people vote against others that had one or two months less data.

Edit: Unlocked voting again. Voting ends 9th of August as before.

All we have to do is buy into the dumps for the dumpers to run out of ammo

Those big drops are likely to make money for the dumper. He might even buy some of his own coins back during the dump to give the impression of larger trades without risking anything more than a .5% fee(.25 both ways).
Then, during the panic, he will buy back at a lower rate and be left with more btc and more fiat for next dump. Some of the extra BTC is offc sold off in small increments after price have bounced back a bit.

Well, IDK, it really depends on how many coins the rich fucker who threw out the initial dumps has. When he runs out, or gets bored, he'll stop throwing millions of dollars of our buy orders to the coyotes. Bid pressure is weak right now so he has opportunity. When there's opportunity, well... Problem is, you shoot the price too low, and you can't expect it to recover. Hoarders naturally provide liquidity per Fekete (Everyone has a price) but they're usually too addicted to profit to accept their current gains so they won't short something to death.
And this is not somebody who's "given up on Bitcoin and cashed out" or else they wouldn't have picked possibly the least profitable method in existence to cash out. The behavior suggests it is, yes, someone trying to make money via moving price. Surprised? You shouldn't be.  This interpretation also suggests that this is about as much as we'll see in terms of downward movement ---- but, while it is easy to interpret the behavior, it is not easy to interpret the quality of judgement behind the behavior, so I wouldn't put much weight on any predictions regarding WHEN that behavior will temporarily cease. Just because the behavior suggest a trader or trader(s) who aren't interested in shorting to mid-term death, doesn't mean they will actually have the judgement in regards to "how much is too much for a speedy recovery." People don't short things 95% to wait 6 months for a gain when they can short it 25% and wait 2 weeks. Sorry, folks, $20 is NOT likely unless the person/people behind those huge initial dumps of millions of $USD are completely off their rocker and have absolutely no idea what they're doing.

Where do you think we'd be if we hadn't seen those massive initial dumps? Probably still languishing at $120 give or take. Pointless question, I know, but concentrated positions behaving in this fashion isn't exactly "fundamentals changing." The presence of concentrated positions that can initiate massive dumps via a huge market order (i.e. the LEAST profitable way to sell coins) is in itself a fundamental that must be taken into effect. We buy bitcoins knowing that there are people with ridiculous amounts that can crash the price $20 in one fell swoop. That they decide to do so on any given day is not a game-changer, it's just part of the game.

Well, the $90 I already added and for you I will add the $100. Sorry. I'm too pessimistic maybe.

Edit: Sorry, I had to reset the counts to not get a total mess of 10, 20, 90, 80, maybe, 40, ...

Yeah i'm also thinking 20-30 range, you can tell all the newbs because they still think its going to go up.  But there are obvious trends of high selling pressure pulling the market down.

I think crossing 30 is mandatory to the capitulation phase. There has been no real capitulation yet.

I'll say $70. in the next 2 weeks.

Say that again in a week or so. You might be right, but the trend says downwards atm.

Either way - exiting times ahead. :-)

The prices are already recovering, I think the lowest is $88, but that's over and the prices are climbing up again.

I'm thinking the same, although it's hard to predict when it actually will bottom out.

We have been in a downwards trend for the last two weeks, I think it will continue for some time. We are likely to see 100-110 and possibly even 120 again. But only in the short run (A weeks time).
I think this downtrend may last for somewhere in the 1-3 month range, possibly up to 1/2 year.
The bubble was mainly hype, and I am surprised that prices have stayed up and stable for as long as they have been. Unfortunately I think we need to go down to find the base before going up again.

Edit: Almost forgot. Longer term I think BTC will rise back and beyond 100 again.

Do not listen! This man holds US dollars and no Bitcoins! HE WANTS YOUR BITCOINS!

We will cross 30 and the capitulation will begin.

Somewhat bias poll. Where is the 90, 100 or No longer falling?

Can you tell i'm bull yet? 

My bitcoinity shows me a round $100.00 today June 9th 20:38 GMT -4.

How deep will we fall before we get back to $130?

I will pick $70. The speculators are out of powder and those with bitcoins need to turn their store of value into medium to pay the bills, so the $130 is just not yet sustainable, but how do you see this? How deep will we fall? What is sustainable?