Topic: How do you consider the prospects of global economy in 2024? (Read 374 times)

It looks like the global economy will continue to deteriorate this year. Due to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which has been going on for three years now, the countries of the European Union have also felt a real danger from Russia. Trump's pre-election statements that the United States will not provide assistance to NATO countries and that NATO should be disbanded altogether are also causing confusion. Therefore, European countries are sharply increasing spending on the army and defense, the military industry is loaded with orders at full capacity. This, of course, increases the number of jobs, but the economy does not grow from this, because useful GDP is not added due to the increased production of tanks, guns and other deadly weapons.
There is also the possibility of further expansion of the military conflict and more states being directly drawn into it. French President Macron recently announced that he would send his troops into Ukraine to assist it if the front moves towards Odessa or Kyiv.
https://www.ukr.net/ru/news/details/politics/103193522.html

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://rg.ru/2024/03/08/lindpendant-makron-vvedet-vojska-na-ukrainu-pri- ugroze-poteri-kieva-i-odessy.html&ved=2ahUKEwjbkYT_s-WEAxU51wIHHT0oBwMQFnoECBcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3pHjKfjdl3vFN3jNWQRzqF

As reality has shown - the "second army of the world" and "unparalleled armament" of Russia turned out to be a fake This is a fact that Russia and its supporters will have to come to terms with. To consider as a success the capture (or rather the complete destruction of a small town) in almost a year, by "the second army of the world + the strongest economy in the world", which was defeated by "the worthless army of Ukraine, partially armed with bad Western weapons" - it is ridiculous....

But back to the economy - we can assume good chances for the same India - to buy Russian oil for pennies or in exchange for bananas - it can really boost the economy ! The same schemes will be used by other countries, I realize that the prospects of Russia are very gloomy, and it is ready to give resources in exchange for anything ! So for some countries 24/25 years will be very positive in terms of economic performance !

IMO, when the FED starts decreasing the rates, the crisis will become something "mainstream", due to the inflation, I guess that price decrease will not be that noticeable

Even if the Republicans win the US elections, Trump will not necessarily win. Nikki Haley also has some chances from the Republican Party, and they have been growing lately. But even if Trump wins, it is not necessary that he will fulfill his campaign promises. In addition, he will not decide on assistance to Ukraine himself. He may be forced to do so by Congress or other forces.
And it’s not only the United States that provides assistance to Ukraine. Now Europe is increasing the production of military equipment and ammunition and, first of all, the needs of Ukraine will be met. So Russia cannot seize Ukraine. Don't even dream.

The fact that Ukraine has been holding back the onslaught of such a “superpower” as the Russian Federation, which has the “second army of the world” for two years, is its great military achievement. Russia has now sent an army of half a million to Ukraine and is attacking it with all possible types of weapons (except nuclear), but the front is practically standing still. Moreover, stocks of artillery, tanks and armored vehicles, as well as their shells and missiles, are being depleted at a rapid pace. Another year of such intense fighting and Russia will have nothing to fight with. Despite the fact that Russia has transferred its economy to a war footing and maximally increased the production of weapons, almost everything from the assembly line is sent directly to the front. But this turns out to be not enough. Because of this, Russia begged a million shells from North Korea, has been supplying drones from Iran and China for a long time, and is violating its previously signed contracts for the supply of its weapons to other countries.

But a very interesting situation is now happening with the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which Ukraine regularly sinks with its own missiles and drones. The last to be sunk on February 1 was the missile boat "Ivanovets", (56 meters long, 10 meters wide, with a displacement of 493 tons and a crew of 36 people), which was on patrol near the occupied Crimean Peninsula and its supersonic anti-ship missiles "Moskit" P-270 range 130 km. threatened the “grain corridor” from Ukrainian seaports. She was attacked and sunk by several Ukrainian-made surface drones and sunk after forty minutes of battle.

Ukraine, having practically no fleet of its own, is actively defeating the Russian fleet and has already driven it out of the north-west of the Black Sea, thereby resuming pre-war trade volumes on the international market, which Russia had previously blocked with its fleet and aircraft.

From the very beginning of Russia’s attack on it, Ukraine did not ask for military assistance from other countries, while at the same time NATO countries were really afraid of engaging in direct military action with their troops against Russia. But already now, at the level of individual politicians, some situations are being discussed in which NATO will be able to provide assistance with its soldiers on the territory of Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The only NATO nation that is having a proper well prepared military is Turkey. And if there is a confrontation between NATO and Russia, in all probability the Turks are going to stay neutral. In all the other NATO nations, military is in very poor shape. And this is especially true in European nations. In the US, they still have a large pool of recruits coming from impoverished rural areas (mostly racial minorities), but this is not the case with European nations such as Germany and France. Russia on the other hand can still build an army of millions from available reserves.

I would say for one that it might have a little to do with the region or individual countries, because while some leaders may enforce rules and regulations that may affect interest rates as well as exchange rates, others may well want to wait for their trade counterparts or those regions that share a special work-trade relationship to have a steadier market or economic value index before doing or enacting similar steps to affect their own economy.

We are in the times where the BRICS countries are clamouring for acceptance and well, the Russian - Ukraine war, as well as the Covid 19 pandemic, did more than just to enforce new trade rules and patterns thus creating alternatives and diversifying the economic strength of several countries.

This year would be bullish for the better part because last year was where things began to dip further.
I believe it gets worse before it gets better, and as such, the economy of my country could get stronger if new currencies or trade currencies is considered and explored for payments and transactions within and across borders or BRICS currency is simply adopted.

Did they never ask, or did NATO and its allies refuse requests to send troops? Because if they do so they will have to confront Russia directly. This is something even the US does not want, let alone NATO countries that are still completely dependent on the US.

The war is still going on and there is no end, we should wait until the war ends to know who is the winner and who is the loser. Stop spreading fake news about Russia weakening and Ukraine rising...I heard this a year ago and so far, I have not seen any significant achievements from Ukraine and NATO in the war with Russia.

Be careful not to tell him about NATO losing to a prison called Gaza for the past 119 days having sustained thousands of casualties

Not to mention Yemen, the poorest Arab country having shut down the entire Suez Canal, Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab strait, Gulf of Aden and even parts of the Indian ocean on two of the NATO members US and UK and some other tiny contributors; and have already attacked dozens of their ships and warships

I project the same happening in 2023 regarding the global economy in 2024 as well, nothing much will be different since not much hope and improvements are seen in most of the global countries till now. Fine, many countries will get farther out of the woods, especially the US which is planning to start cutting rates this year. If the inflation is not subsiding, they will not be thinking in that regard. The inflation in the country, though not at the best level, but has significantly subsided in issues compared to what we experienced in 2021 and 2022. The situation was able to be handled carefully as I expected, so we can expect a better projection for such a country among others.

However, I fear that developing and third-world countries will not be able to do same, they do not just have the clue aside that they are not advantaged when it comes to resources in most cases. I also predict more humanitarian crises in such countries, more will slip into the poverty level and hunger might be everywhere. This is mainly because the induced inflation can't be bated by them, while there are many other internal problems even as their government mostly are not helping, corruption is the order of the day, and are clues. Many global countries are just not in capable hands, and for this, it will be a mixed economy in the world this year.

Some countries that are better managed will smile and shine, while others that are poorly managed will be worse affected.

NATO does not protect and did not intend to protect the territory of Ukraine. NATO countries only provide assistance to Ukraine financially, materially, including with weapons, so that Ukraine has the opportunity to defend itself against an aggressor that is superior to it in all respects. But Ukraine never asked for help from Europe or NATO countries with troops.

Now the Russians have been attacking Ukraine for four months along the entire front, which exceeds a thousand kilometers, and every day they are losing about a thousand of their soldiers. To date, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russian casualties amount to 387,060 people. According to the Russian Federation, which on January 29 was reported to Patrushev, and not to Putin, who may no longer be alive, Russia has irretrievable losses of 392,614 military personnel and 76,000 Wagner troops, and a total of 468,624 people. Yes, Russians are still going into battle and dying. But humanoid rams will also end someday. Many will then wonder why they should go to another country and die. Ukraine has never represented and does not pose a potential danger to Russia. Moreover, Ukraine voluntarily abandoned the third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world and transferred it to Russia along with numerous aircraft and missiles that are now being used on Ukrainian territory.

These questions are already being asked, especially on the outskirts, which the Kremlin uses as expendable material much more. Then big problems will begin in Russia itself.

In addition, the current war in Ukraine shows the great advantage of high-precision weapons and the presence of a large number of soldiers ready to go into battle offsets this. It seems that in the future it will be precision weapons that will have a significant impact on the outcome of this and future wars. And in Russia there are already problems with this in front of the weapons of NATO countries and in connection with its international isolation, these problems will only deepen.

Another thing to consider would be the demographics of the world. Almost all of the major economies has a decreasing population. Due to that condition, the demand for valuable goods and service would keep on decreasing.
Illegal immigration of unskilled and uneducated people from third world countries to the developed countries would decrease the quality of life for everyone. This would be more visible in European countries.
US might have capacity to take in more illegal immigrants without any issues but it's internal and external politics would bring major disrupt towards its economy.
Even though there's a rise in renewable energy resources, the number of wars being fought would increase the demand of fossil fuel and metals.
IMF have recently forecasted a better growth rate in 2024 compared to 2023 for most economies.

LOL.. NATO has so far failed to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian invasion, and you are saying that they will be able to do that in Russian territory? The biggest advantage with Russia is that they have a pool of several million reserve soldiers who are not afraid to go to the battle. The same can be said about Ukraine as well, but the numbers are in hundreds of thousands and definitely not in millions. None of the NATO nations have this advantage. If the UK or Germany lose a few thousand of their soldiers, then there will be a lot of hue and cry, and the governments will be toppled.

You say that as if NATO is directly at war with Russia. So far, Ukrainians are fighting with the Russians, defending themselves from attack, and NATO is only providing rather weak assistance to Ukraine. There are no NATO military units in Ukraine. At the time of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer, Ukraine did not have air superiority, and was also inferior in the number of artillery, armored vehicles and the number of troops. With such a balance of forces and means, one cannot count on the success of a counteroffensive. And then, out of fear, the Russians mined entire territories on the contact line, placing up to eight anti-tank and anti-personnel mines on every meter. Not a single army in the world would agree to launch an offensive in such a balance of power. But Ukrainians fight not with numbers, but with ingenuity and skill. As a result, almost the entire professional army of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was destroyed.

Now the occupiers have also been carrying out their offensive along the entire front since the beginning of October, that is, for almost four months. As a result, figuratively speaking, they captured several houses and one garbage dump, killing several tens of thousands of soldiers and several hundred armored vehicles.

If NATO enters into a war with Russia, it will end very quickly, and not in Russia’s favor.

One can only hope so because I don't think the global economy can endure the consequences of the US proxy war with China.
However, they've said this before too. With pretty much the same language too "We don't support independence" but then they sent Pelosi to Taiwan and increased weapons sale!

That's true but remember that they weren't bored in Washington one day that they decided to start this proxy war. They were seeking to contain China and significantly damage its economy and expansion. If they don't start that war, China will continue getting bigger. This proxy war is not something US can postpone!

I don't think this is a Republican/Democrat thing, there are certain things that everyone in US regime agrees on. They may only have different approaches and in some details.
The NATO vs Russia thing is the same as NATO vs China thing. They have certain goals they won't stop without achieving some of them at least.

All wars end with a negotiation but for NATO (which is basically US dictating everything of it) to enter negotiation phase they have to have some advantage or have some wins on the battlefield. So far they have none otherwise they've been trying to get there. In fact the largely advertised "counter attack" months ago was supposed to be that "win" they needed. Ukraine was supposed to gain some ground defeating Russia in some fronts then they could start negotiating a truce and hope to stop the invasion by having some advantage over the Russians.

What can they do now though? What advantage does NATO have over Russia? The counter attack failed because Ukrainians listened to US/NATO and postponed it so much that Russia fortified its positions making any counter attack impossible.
And at the same time Russian advances is getting faster these days (some say at 2x the normal speed and it is winter). They can't negotiate anything with Russia at this point since they have nothing to bring to the negotiation table. Russia will demand a lot and the smallest one would be complete withdrawal of NATO from Russian borders. That term alone means they can't end the war with Russia regardless of who is the POTUS!

P.S. Don't be fooled by Trump's advertisement when he says "he will end the war if he wins". He was saying the same exact thing in his previous advertisement and about ending the war in Afghanistan and exiting there too if he won. Years later his own defense secretary colonel Miller said it was all bullshit

And unfortunately they're right. The world wasn't ready. To be more precise, the world believed that it was possible to have partnership relations with all participants of the world community, that all agreements and obligations would be observed, that there could not be global terrorism in the modern world, including economic terrorism. A soft infantile community always loses to cynical criminals - these are the "laws of nature".
It is the global world destabilization that has become the "tool" that has been used with

There will be no war. Uncle Sam already stated they're not going to support Taiwan.


Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-us-does-not-support-taiwan-independence-2024-01-13/

Translation: Sorry guys, we don't have enough money to support you. We gave away too much money and military aid to Ukraine and Israel so you're now on your own. Nothing personal, just business.

Chances are, the Republicans are going to win in the US. Which means the war is going to stop (no chances for Ukraine without US support). 

Another important thing to consider this year is that 2024 is the year of elections. There are a bunch of elections that could change the course of the world this year.

For example the elections in Taiwan that was in January 13. I don't follow that closely but some summaries from reliable source I read say those who won, moved China and Taiwan a big step closer to war. We know that this war would affect the global economy and the size experts suggest is $10 trillion.

Other important elections are US presidential elections in November, Russian presidential election in March both of which could affect the proxy war going on between NATO and Russia and consequently the economy.
And of course a lot of other countries that are seeing significant changes in their political scene (like in Europe) moving towards more "radical parties" that are making more radical decisions for their country which makes things unpredictable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024

At least at this point, I think 2024 is probably better than 2023. The previous year was at the early stage of recovery from the pandemic. There was so much monetary injection earlier. There was the inflation rising way beyond targets. There was the Russian invasion. There was Israel attacking Gaza. Although the conflicts haven't ended yet, oftentimes, beginnings have a stronger impact at least economically. And the conflicts have winded down a bit. Although it seems a fresh round of trouble is brewing in the Middle East, that region isn't new to it.

But what's particularly interesting is that both positive and negative outlooks are valid from certain perspectives. In a way, my parents and grandparents' stories are similar in that both are characterized by economic struggles and challenges. Life back then was hard. This is a very common line among stories of old. And yet they carried on and life probably gets better year after year.

Inflation has slowed down considerably so hopefully the Fed and the ECB will lower rates and the economy will gain some momentum. Uncertainty remains high though... wars in Ukraine and Israel, the Houthis creating problems with shipping lanes, and most importantly the CCP in China, which is dealing with troubled internal situation and might look at Taiwan to regain some popularity with a crazy action.

In summary, things are getting better... but there are still a lot of things that could go bad. Just my 2c

Undoubtedly, world economy is not going to resume growth until the war is over. But I have a gut feeling that war is going to end later this year, probably fall or winter. So there's a fair chance of growth resuming in 2025. Good news is that it will coincide with Bitcoin's four year cycle's top.

When compared with previous years, it seems that the global economy is starting to improve, although it is very difficult to recover completely. Here I do not have the ability to predict the future, and this is only an estimate, regarding the prospects for the global economy in 2024, this can be influenced by various factors so it is difficult to predict accurately. And these factors include political conditions, technological developments and global events that have occurred and will occur, all of which play quite an important role in a global economy. And indeed, with the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the resurgence of conflict in the Middle East, this is a concern in the economic and trade sectors, especially regarding energy and food availability.

However, remember that economic forecasts always involve a level of uncertainty, so that wisdom in making decisions, especially financial decisions, is something that is very important for us to continue to pay attention to.

I think the economy will improve in this year, I did not know the fact that war has put worse bad impact than the pandemic, which is a really shocking fact if it is true because I was not affected by the war in any way but in the Pandemic I and my family was affected financially. So I will not say I don't disagree with that fact but at the moment I doubt that fact.

Besides that, many big companies and other small vendors must have some of there amount as investments in BTC for the long term, and if BTC sets its ATH in this bull run even it's not, still those will be making enough profit that they can cover it their losses from other economical losses they will make in 2024.

Talking about the unemployment rate, I will say, that's not a big jump from 5.1 to 5.2 and even that's just a prediction, I have seen people leaving jobs for online work, more and more people are not joining corporate jobs because they have seen the true power of online work, people with corporate jobs are also somehow managing two job one corporate and other is online. To manage there expenses. So, Overall I will say, economy will improve more in 2024 and in 2025 considering there will be no war, and other types of pandemics.

It feels like the world is in quite a fragile place at the moment and there are vulnerabilities that could cause economic progress to go in reverse or stall. Last year felt a bit like we were in the midst of a recession but no one really acknowledged it, partly because unemployment stayed near record lows in many countries. It feels like inflation has been brought under control, which was a crisis by itself and unbalanced a lot of things, so if it continues to trend down it could be quite a pleasant year. Hopefully if some of the conflicts and wars taking place come to an end, we could start healing again and everyone would start to focus on more productive things than trying to kill each other.

just wait till you read that oil reserves forecasting even from the pre1980's gulf war days of oil crises, knew reserves would be unsustainable in 2050 and so energy companies drum up climate reasonings for why the tax payer has to fund energy companies diversification to keep these companies running without them using their own profits to modify their business model to survive on their own.

just wait till you read how the trickle down economics, hasnt tricked down fully. most new money is hoarded in top echelons of corporations and causing the rich-poor great divide. requiring interest rates to continue to alter to try to tame the tide


just wait till you read about blackrock doing a massive ukraine land grab to redevelop ukraine

Exactly. How inflation has been affecting many countries world-wide now is such a different case, although a lot needs to be done to tackle the issue of inflation that is affecting people living in the countries and even the countries world-wide. This issue includes high costs of living, high costs of fuel, and high costs of food that cause starvation in many countries, which results in the deaths of people, especially infants and pregnant women. It is very painful when you discover that the world-wide economy is falling. Many countries have accumulated high debts that are too expensive to pay, and many problems have been happening since the pandemic of COVID-19 occurred. Many have been suffering up until now.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has already caused a lot of damage to people's lives and even destroyed the economies of some countries, due to COVID-19, many have lost their businesses, and they find it hard to recover. Up till now, many have committed suicide due to the high accumulation of depth, and some countries have entered depth that they are still struggling to pay, so to me, strategies need to be followed in order to minimise and manage the economy worldwide to reduce the effects that inflation is trying to cause.

The world economy is on the verge of great economic problems even without a Covid-19 pandemic. The problems have been accumulating for many decades and this can't continue forever. To this are added various influences due to certain events. It accumulates like a snowball and one day governments and financial institutions will not be able to contain it by endlessly printing money. The global economic bubble must burst to clear the market and begin a new cycle. This will probably happen in the near future.

Production is bound to decrease due to low consumption, which will lead to decreased production, fewer jobs and this will lead to low consumption. The snowball is spinning up.

I think the likelihood that the world economy will be weaker in 2024 is much higher than that it will become stronger. There are no trends that could have a positive impact on a favorable outcome. For the good times to begin, the bad times must first pass. And it hasn't even really begun yet.

Actually, it depends on how well the country is managed. Things are always going to be tough every year, so how strong economies are going to be depends on the government of that country and its policies.
When the right policies and decisions are taken, the economy will thrive.

Despite how things were in 2023 there are countries where their currency did not devalue too much, the unemployment rate reduced, and GDP increased. I don't know if the per capita income and purchasing power of any country increased but I believe if a country did the right things, it will.

After the pandemic, I don't understand why the world seems going to be darker every year. Due to capitalism, poor and low middle class people almost have no chance to become rich, because they either die poor or survive but own nothing as they need to pay off debts.

I think it will going weaker because currently the conflicts of Ukraine vs Russia and Palestine vs Israel still not solved yet.

Well, I don't know, but I couldn't imagine any scenario where 2024 could be worse than 2023 because for me 2023 was extremely difficult. I work in advertising industry and even during and shortly after pandemic (2021-2022) ads industry is still booming, everyone still needs ads, but 2023 it is really bad, even big corporation was reducing (some even put 0) on their advertising and marketing budget. My agency lose many regular client.
But it's starting to get better this early year, not in a big leap, but still an improvement. So, I have quite positive, and good hope for 2024.

My forecast about the global economy-more debt and lower growth.
The global debt will keep growing way above 300 trillion dollars. The debt bubble will burst after several decades.
The European Union will enter recession, because of the oil & gas sanctions against the Russian federation and the high interest rates.
The economic growth of China will slow down in the long term, because the population in China is getting older and the real estate bubble is slowly going down.
The USA will keep pumping their economy with newly printed money and cheap labor from Latin American immigrants. At some point, the US dollar will lose it's global dominance and the money printing will lead to higher inflation and currency devaluation.

Starting of this year has not been so great because in general if you look around there are lay offs everywhere and there are organizations like Google and Amazon which was like a dream job for people now they have started laying off, product based companies are laying off and once an employee loses his job his spending power reduces and this will affect everyone from top to bottom, right from businessmen to an farmer. Just need to brace for an bumpy year ahead.   

Well, one thing is certain... it is going to be a very interesting year.

1. I am curious to see how the dedollarization attempts by the BRICS nations are going to impact the global economy.
2. I also think the Covid epidemic are just the first of many to come. (Some experts believe a possible Disease X could be 20 times deadlier than COVID-19, CBS News reported.)
3. The conflict in the middle east was just the spark, I think this is going to spill over to other countries and political conflicts are just going to increase.

These are just some of the things that will put a downward pressure on the global economy, but it can be significant enough to cause a crisis.

Things don't look good and I think at this point the only question is whether things are going to get worse or remain bad. After all even if for example energy crisis were to be solved and prices came down (eg. oil to $30), it still takes a year or two for economy to go back to normal and we don't see any reason for that crisis to end yet.

This is exactly why they haven't yet brought the interest rates down despite the recession that it has caused. Which is another reason why things aren't going to get any better any time soon, the rates are still too high for things to get better. And recession isn't something that goes away easily while every day rates remain high the recession grows...

And that's just one crisis. There are still a couple more like the fact that we still have the growing armed conflict. The other day I heard something about some European countries preparing their population for war!!! Sweden and Germany if I'm not mistaken are already predicting war in the near future and NATO has already deployed 90k troops to Eastern Europe borders.

Isn't both of them need to work together?

Citizens and workers need to accept minimum payment jobs because they need to feed themselves, the business and banks can make more money from their productivity. What matters in the current society is most people prefer to become unemployed rather than having a job that only enough to feed themselves, not to mention they're using social medias as their standards e.g. a fresh graduate earns $60K per month, a 30 years old guy earns $200K per month etc.

Why they can still live without a jobs? their parents makes more money that enough to survive.

there is one certainty

teaching people about the economy is not about screaming "to the moon" as a teaching of endless growth.. but instead, its the exact same as Mr miyagi teaching the karate kid how to paint a fence "upppp, dowwwn"
name any 30 year period and i can mention a bad time within it

now with that said. with any market cycle there can be winners and losers on both sides
take bank savings accounts vs mortgage accounts
low interest is bad for one and good for the other
product inflation, bad for the buyer, great for the seller

when asking about prospects of economy.. the question.. which side

businesses-banks
_~/^~\_~/^~\_~/^~\_~/^~\
citizens-workers  

The global economy is yet to stand upright after the Covid-19 pandemic. The uncertainty in the economy remains the same in 2024. Covid-19 has affected the global economy but Russia and Ukraine war affect more than the pandemic. A large part of economists think that we will not fully recover from its effects this year either. They believe that due to high interest rate policies and geopolitical difficulties in most countries in the world, an unstable environment has been created in almost every part of the world.

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A survey by the WEF- World Economic Forum revealed that around 56% of economists think the economy will remain weak in 2024 and 3% of economists think the economy will be worse this year than ever before. Overall, a large portion of economists think that the unemployment rate will also increase in the labor market. Moreover, the International Labor Organization (ILO) has expressed an opinion where they think 20 people will enter the target in 2024, unemployment rate may rise to 5.2 percent which was 5.1 percent in the previous year due to the low rate of employment. However, 57 percent of economists though provide negative attitude, while 43 percent of economists gave good news. They expect the economy to be stronger in 2024.

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On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is of the opinion that due to trade barriers in various countries, production will decrease, resulting in lower income economies suffering more.

Do you think the economy will be stronger in 2024 or could it be weaker?