Topic: How do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? (Read 695 times)

That is the biggest peeve I have in the crypto market. There are people who end up with a few good results and they end up thinking that they will get all correct trades all year long, which we all know that won't happen. They keep claiming they are amazing at trades because they had a few good results, and that should not be the case at all.

I feel like the best way to go would be making sure that it is going to end up with a result that will end up with a loss one way or another. I hope that it can get to a better point, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with a result that is good all the time because we just had a few. We should consider that as a low level chance and not a big possibility.

I think the same as well, I understand that every single thing we do is done with the intention of things going our way, but at the same time it is impossible this will always happen, so we must learn to let things go, a single mistaken prediction is not really going to change anything as long as the strategy that we are using is a good one that has been backtested thoroughly, so with that in mind we need to simply accept that we will make mistakes regardless of how good our strategy is and how high is our skill as traders.

Op, the market "Bitcoin" is not controlled by you or any entity but by supply and demand, hence making it unpredictable. all you need do as regards your price prediction in the future is to understand and have this mindset that you are only expecting what the price should do and there is no certainty that the price will always go your direction at the end of the day,  So be more of a reactive trader and follow the trend (pay attention to the current market situations) to never hurt your emotion much.

Maybe some outcome has been predicted but not always since no guarantee at all that the insights we get is accurate so there are times that we are lucky and our predictions got hit but still we must be aware that turn of events came and unexpected scenarios will happen. Although market is unpredictable we should do more research about so that atleast we can understand how the market moves in different direction so that we might get a high chance to gain especially when same scenario upon trading comes.

Maybe there are only a few people who predict correctly but I think this could just happen due to luck alone, very few people make predictions exactly as they say, if there are people who make predictions just want to look cool to other people I think there are It's better if those who see these predictions don't follow them because they don't do it based on what they understand well and this will be detrimental to other people. It's better to focus on what we already understand and continue to learn if there is something we don't really understand well. If we do it with something we already understand, of course this will be more satisfying when we make a profit and when we experience a loss. it will be easier to fix it because of the mistakes we make ourselves.

Predicting is something that we could barely do for ourselves let alone do it for others as well, I understand the need to feel awesome when you help others to make profit as well but the feeling of helping others make profit as well is a lot less than the fear of making others lose money.

This is why it would be smarter if you could avoid that and just focus on yourself, it would make a lot of sense to do something like that and would be a lot more profitable as well. Even if you end up losing, there is nobody that you have to respond to, nobody could say a thing about it because it is your own money and you can do whatever you want with it, all of the responsibility is yours and you face the consequences of your own actions.

It's not practical to do short-term price predictions about the bitcoin market. The bitcoin market heavily reacts to every news event, no matter how positive or negative. A sudden news event can throw your prediction into the dust. If we want to play with the bitcoin market's every move, we need to keep an eye on the top news platform and react to news events ASAP. If you are predicting for a longer time frame, then you can be right about the price direction. We all agree on a bull market following the bitcoin halving, and we all know this is going to be true.

It's not nice for someone to depends on the predictions of bitcoin through other people, what I want us to understand in bitcoin predictions is that whosoever that predicts the price of bitcoin did so because it wants to predict, so of the predictors brings analysis that is not real and they have not make any research of the market, some times its not ideal to follow the predictions of another person and depends on the predictions, even in signal, some people do give out a signal that is inappropriate to the public and after following such predictions they now realize that the signal is made of false and inaccurate

Very normal behavior into those some people who do make out such claims that they are really that good when it comes to market prediction just because they had made out those right calls without even trying to realize that it is really just that something that their choices did make out to get in lined with the market movement and that what makes them really that having that boost up into their emotions and confidence
and trying out to claim something which totally that sounds absurd because on the time that you would really be that making some wrong bets then this is the time you would really be telling into yourself that
everything would really be that random and cant really be guessed. 

On the time that you do make yourself that confident on trying to handle the market movement and when it turns out that it is really wrong. Frustration and disappointment would be surely felt and this is something that would really makes you that realize in the end of the line. Well experience is the best teacher as we do all know. It is really just that there are some people or person who cant really be just make
or see those realizations.

There are right predictions but those predictors are mostly lucky. There is no way they can predict accurately at all times, so the OP shouldn't feel bad. As long as he keeps on predicting and maybe predict a little smarter like include analysis with it, he could also get it correctly. That's right, that we should not take predicting seriously so that it won't gives us a stress. Prediction were in fact invented to entertained us. We can see the volatility of the market by looking at the charts.

Speaking of volatility, it's also the reason on why predicting is so hard. We can't put everything in our hands but we can have a chance if we are like the whales. So right now, the only thing that we can do is to embrace it. It was not a disadvantage anyway but rather an advantage.

There is one thing I learned from people's predictions, although it is not completely accurate, but sometimes it is very correct. That's bitcoin, the market always goes against the crowd's thinking, when people always shout that bitcoin will rise and continue to rise higher, bitcoin always disappoints the crowd and vice versa. So I don't want to be Fomo or follow the crowd, when people are greedy I will be more cautious.

One more thing, the percentage of people making money in the market is very small and the percentage of losses is the majority so I think we should stop following the predictions of the crowd.

These type of things change from person to person, not only the person who was wrong, but the person who is the friend as well. There are people who would convince the friends to invest yet again if they were wrong, they are people who are so subdued by these type of complaints that they would pay out of pocket even if it wasn't their fault, or there are friends who knew the risks and would be fine, and there are friends who go around telling people you stole their money even though market went down.

So all in all, there isn't really an answer anyone can take from this topic, because it all depends on the person and how they would react and all that, which should not be a difficult thing to handle all that much.

Good question, do you know that price analysis is very important in this aspect? This is why being a trader is very good because there are some tools you can use to know when to take profits, if you can't do this you should be prepared to gradually take profits as your coin starts surging.

If you are into Bitcoin, it's better to wait for the next bull market and once Bitcoin reach it's old all time high, at the value of 67k then you can start taking some.percentage off the table, you can start with 10% profits off the table, and see what happens over time.

Most predictions are wrong and they will always be, this is like a way of manipulation to make others believe that the price prediction is possible, and it will turn them into a sitting duck, which will create time for people to use you as exit liquidity.

Always believe that a prediction is a prediction, do not believe in everything people say about price online.

I have seen a lot of research that has made predictions that turn out to be completely wrong and backfired. When we entered the new year it was predicted that the value of Bitcoin would reach a good point, but that did not happen. The $30k/$40k position was supposed to be the level the Bitcoin market was at in early 2023, but it turned out to be completely different. Although the Bitcoin market touched $30k in half a year, it has since dropped back to $25,000, which has changed the market a lot. However, many studies have been done on the Bitcoin market, but most of the studies have failed and gone wrong. But in the future, the Bitcoin market will become a Sir's market again, and it is certain that the Bitcoin market will be $100,000 in the year 2024-25 as predicted by various experts.

When I do something but it continuously doesn't bring me satisfaction, what I do is stop doing it. That's why I rarely make market predictions and for me those predictions are just for entertainment and I never expect anything because I know my prediction never happened.

Furthermore, I guess you are a stubborn person because you yourself know that bitcoin is unpredictable but you still feel annoyed when your prediction is not accurate. You should get rid of that because stubbornness has never benefited your investments or your life.

In trading we are faced with many choices of people who make predictions, but of the many people who make predictions, they don't even use the predictions they make because market conditions are rapidly changing, so it would be better to trade if we had the ability. yourself to trade and continue to learn from those who already have experience in this matter.

You are making one of the most basic mistakes a trader can make, which is to stick with your prediction to the point you feel bad when you fail to predict the market accurately, remember, what matters at the end is not how many predictions you got right or how close you were to predict the price perfectly, what matters is how much money you can make, and if you are making money out of this market then you should not care about a few mistaken predictions.

correct! Traders who trust on everyone will be at high risk without any doubt therefore self confidence should be created to check the data of a person who is providing signals.

Because some people don't have similar thoughts as that of experts have so they cannot provide us an accurate and original signals. There is an app that will provide you accurate signals so without any charges you can download the signals offering applications.

I think one can also learn from experts providing signals through YouTube and Telegram for making an easy planning for trading or investment.

As long as you are doing what you think is right, there is nothing that others could tell you that should change your worth. Let them judge you for your mistakes and not appraise you for your success. If those are the type of people they are, we should not want to be around them anyway and they do not worth our time or even our thoughts. Only look for the people that have your best interest, otherwise it doesn't really worth it, doesn't even make sense to me at all.

I believe that we are going to end up with something much bigger, and should be an important part of it which would lead to us becoming bigger ourselves as well and could result with us doing much better on the long term. That's the type of people we should hang out with, who helps us grow.

There is nothing wrong with choosing to believe someone's predictions, but before we choose someone's predictions we need to know how much knowledge they have about this. If they only make predictions that have no basis then we cannot make a decision to invest in that person's predictions. Yes, you are right, I think no one can predict market conditions accurately, so it is better for us to invest according to our abilities and not force ourselves if we are not able to do so.

Do not make predictions for the purpose of influencing other people's investment decisions, it may end badly for them if in reality market conditions will not be the same as you predicted. If they are forced to believe in your predictions, then ask them to consider the risks including only investing with a budget they can afford to lose.

No prediction will be 100% accurate, but it is certainly possible to make a prediction that is as close as possible. Your ability to analyze the market both fundamentally and technically can be a good reason to make predictions, but the point is, don't influence other people's investment decisions with your predictions. If you don't have good skills for it, then don't do it because the market and the future price of bitcoin are very difficult to predict.

There are many different factors that we should also consider because there are times when the volatility often depends on the happening news about Bitcoin or related to cryptocurrency. That's why Bitcoin is called a volatile asset.

But from another angle, this volatility of Bitcoin helps other holders in their actual trade as well, especially if they are scalpers. Although it is difficult to do, it is actually quite complicated. But that's it; of course traders hold their prediction analysis, although we all know that no one knows what will happen tomorrow or in the future.

Still, always know how to take the risk, when we do trade in the actual exchange site platform here.

Hey you don't control the market so why then should you predict the future,  I think is more profiting to align your thoughts and approach towards having a balance ground regardless of the the outcome of the price of Bitcoin tomorrow or the next year,  thos os so important for your well being because to most of us bitcoin os taken as a long term investment and that could mean lot of things along the way up or down depending on your projection.


But never the less,  bitcoin have thrive so hard to be where it is,  and we have to commend that as for the overall liquidity health of the bitcoin market and thos is also very important since we can't possibly predict the price of bitcoin at any certain time,  so for that we may see Bitcoin achieving the $35k round in before the end of this quarter.

Bitcoin is so volatile that we cannot make sudden decision in an hour or a day as the price regularly fluctuates in an hour so if we make a wrong decision then this will be our bad luck. By knowing everything that how market goes down and ups if we make wrong step then it's our fault and not a fault of market Fluctuations.

Make sure that you can buy bitcoin at a price which is lower and then whenever you get the reward then there will be always two option first is to wait more and second is to take the profit and then again try to wait for next dip to buy once again.

That's quite natural, no one can predict market prices accurately all the time, let alone the very fast movement of the Crypto market, so don't make it a problem and forget about what has happened because if it continues to be in your mind it will become a new problem. appear in your psychology that will harm you in the future.

So continue to deepen your knowledge and learn several new things to be able to change what has been wrong because in predicting prices we only need to learn more to be accurate about right or wrong, that is quite normal, I hope you really understand that there are errors in predictions is quite commonplace.

You have 2 options. Either don't take it seriously, or don't do it at all.

What I mean when I said don't take it seriously is that, if you are making a prediction, don't be too serious about it, and just take it as a non-bearing thing. I've made some predictions in the past, but that's just my wild guesses. All of them are wrong, but I don't care because it's just a prediction, and I always think that even those so-called experts are getting wrong with their predictions as well. If you make a prediction, just take it like a wild guess where there's a high chance that you will be wrong into it. Don't do it at all meaning... just don't do it at all. If you can't handle yourself, and you're always serious about making a prediction to the point that you make a thread like this, just don't do it at all.

In the end, don't stress yourself about with regards to predicting the price of Bitcoin or any other altcoins out there. We know how unpredictable the price of Bitcoin is, so most of the time, you might be wrong with your predictions. How do I handle my wrong predictions? I just move on with it. After all, I'm not saying to anybody else aside from this forum, and if I'm wrong, I just simply say "Crypto market is very volatile, and it's hard to predict the price of every coin even though you use Technical Analysis in your prediction".

Don't take things very seriously. I just hope that you're ok, and don't stress yourself out.

A prediction is a prediction and that's it. There is no guarantee that an expert can predict the price without fail if in fact the price of bitcoin does not match expectations. The market can move in any direction and the market can even go against the existing trend, so predictions do not guarantee actual expectations.

We must realize that predictions made by other users are not the basis for why they should invest. Investors or traders must make their own analysis rather than relying too much on other people's predictions, but the analysis carried out will not guarantee that prices match expectations.

Purchasing or investment strategies may vary depending on your budget availability. If you have a weekly income, then you can invest weekly. Meanwhile, on the other hand, many people may consider monthly investment with the same strategy, namely DCA.

All traders must have experienced this, predicting prices will go down or up but what happens is not according to predictions and that is not a problem at all in my opinion because no matter how skilled traders are, they will definitely experience mistakes, if you have already bought then wait for the price to reach the predicted point is better because I would never do a stop loss in spot trading on Bitcoin except for altcoins, if I still have funds buying at that price is also good because it means the price of Bitcoin has not yet increased and just wait for the time it will start to rise.
If anyone asks why the price is not touching what was predicted, say that this is normal because many factors can make predictions not go as predicted.

What incorrect price of predictions can help you do is that what you expected that will be the price of bitcoin will not be the price of bitcoin again, so whatever you are doing in bitcoin investment you are not supposed to be depending on the price of bitcoin  given by someone analysis, so when someone gives analysis or signal in cryptocurrency and it fails you will think that the price or the analysis given to you by a signal person is real, its when the price of bitcoin shift from what the signal officer gives to you, its when you will realise that depending in some one signal will make you to lose without making your own research

You have given up and it seems that you are not strong enough to continue making predictions even if the predictions you say are wrong. I even often experience things like that where we often predict the price every month but it's still far from our predictions but it's just fun for us.

We will see a Bitcoin Halving next year so I remain optimistic that the price of bitcoin will experience a stronger increase next year. So one thing I really agree with you is that gradual buying is a pretty good action for accumulating BTC. This month it might be difficult for us to see the Btc price reach $30k, but that doesn't really matter because we can buy at a cheap price during this downturn.

Do you think you're the only one that had this kind of experience with failed attempts in the market precision, i think we just have to understand the fact that that's how the bitcoin market is with being volatile, we can't predict what may comed in next even if we are sure of what we have researched about it, i think those into trading should tell more of what it takes to make predictions on plain the market to see something else turns out to be the outcome after the prediction.


We cannot be always right in what we do, this is why we are taking the risk to invest, trade or speculate on the market, yet all our presumptions may not be accurate.

Of course, you will fail because you are predicting long and we know that the market is unpredictable. Nobody has come up with that long market prediction, we all fail to point to the right price and that is the reality so don't make it a reason to be disappointed.

If I were you, stop doing long-term predictions and rather make it a shorter time frame. Maybe that will work but as the other members said, we don't assume that our predictions will be right but doing it in a short time frame will be possibly close to the actual price. Or, you need to enhance the level of your TA and market understanding.

We are all speculators on here on which there's no one on this world would be able to predict on what would gonna happen on next years to come specially in speaking about value or potential income which we know that it isnt something that we could really be able to tell on the time that we do set our foot into this market. Lots of speculations around that floats and its true that each one of us does have that kind of prediction on which neither be wrong or right, there's no way on telling it. If you are that someone who do easily get discourage or getting that annoyed or getting angry on the time that you had made out the wrong ones then this market isnt for you or something that you cant really do something but to go along with the waves.

One of the main realizations that you should really be doing is that you should really be that adaptive when it comes to market price volatility.Its always been that unpredictable in the first place
and guessing on where it would be going will be the most common thing that should be done around. It is really just that there are ones who cant handle out their emotions on the time it do fail to reach out
on a certain point and there are ones who could really just easily move on and predict another one and goes on and on.

The price of bitcoin is actually difficult to predict, even experts will never have an accurate percentage when predicting it. You can still make predictions whenever you want, but don't let someone else believe in your predictions completely without knowing what the risks are. It may be good to predict anonymously like you did on the bitcointalk forum, but you still have to convince people that your predictions are not financial advice.

If you have to make predictions, then don't be responsible whatever the outcome. Let them know that bitcoin has volatility that is difficult to predict, even if your predictions are correct.

It is best to do it consistently, no matter what the price is if your goal is long term you should continue to buy every two months.

DCA will provide good accumulation when the Bitcoin price starts to rise and enter a bull market.
You certainly won't miss the bullish party that is likely to happen in the coming year.

There is no need to be afraid of panic as you start accumulating little by little.
There is nothing to doubt about Bitcoin investment.
No more wrong predictions, you just need to hold on and set your top target.

Wow, so many encouraging responses more than I expected. I have sieved through them and learnt a great deal. In the meantime, no more expert opinions to friends. If I have to do this then it should be anonymous but no more predictions. I'll just go back to my bitcoin goal and keep investing a specific every other month

That's correct, holding is the only safe way of investing in Bitcoin and not through trading because trading is very risky. Many individuals think they can only make profits when they trade and that's the reason behind many individual getting interested to trade. They don't have the patience to wait for few years for Bitcoin to rise and give them profits. They want to make the profits as quickly as possible by trading but they reject the decision after losing.

Having few incorrect predictions isn't a problem because the market moves so fast that at times your prediction would have been correct but due to other reasons the market moves in an opposite direction but if you noticed you aren't getting correct prediction you have to quit.

All of us here in the crypto space are entitled to give predictions; whatever our prediction is, there is nothing wrong. Why? Of course, these are our assumptions based on our understanding of the analysis we read in the chart graph. Then there is one more thing: do you have an idea or do you know that it is difficult to predict the price movement in the market? You should expect it, and at any moment you can be frustrated; we should not be surprised by that.

Your prediction could actually happen; it just didn't go in favor of what you wanted to happen, so you got frustrated. That's why the predictions of each of us traders are just different, and we argue about our understanding and use of tools to determine what is right in our eyes.

People should realize that one thing which its true that there's no system or analysis that would really be that perfect on which means that outcomes would really be entirely be that random basing up on the market sentiments around which anything could really happen and there's no way on stopping it completely which it would really be resulting neither positive or negative with your trading positions
and this is why its neither a profitable or a losing kind of trade on which it is really that something that you should anticipate so that you would really be able to make yourself that prepared and dont get that kind of extreme frustration which might lead into that impulsive decisions into your trading decisions and this what makes you boggled up on what things that you must do.

On the time that you are in the verge of huge disappointment and frustration then it would really be just that better that you should really be assessing on what things makes wrong and move on
simply because market is never been that too kind and would really be having those opposite take of directions which would really be resulting into those negatives or losses.
Call it a day and move on the other so that you wont really be keeping yourself going back and blaming yourself on what you have done which it isnt really that recommendable.

If your price prediction fails and you feel bad, then risk management was never in place and fully incorporated in your strategy. As a matter of fact, one of the best winning strategy is being able to manage your losses because they will always come... no system or strategy is perfect and like it is always said, nothing is guaranteed in this market.

What we are doing is a game of probabilities so you just have to development a system that give you edge over the market with risk management in place so that your winner is far higher than the losses... that is how to survive. The last time I checked, we are little fries in the market because our capital cannot move the market much... so don't ever think you can predict the market accurately all the time because you won't.

If you ask me, I will suggest you refine your strategy to integrate risk management and also go for trading psychology course that will further help you manage your emotions and give you the balance you need to remain happy and stable irrespective of the outcome of your prediction.

1 btc = 1 btc

do not think of its $ value

just think of how many can you acquire in the next 5 years.

I mean, it's called a "prediction", a forecast. It's not set in stone, it's simply an idea that pertains to what you "think" what would happen. And while it is frustrating, the bad thing here is you're frustrated because of shame. Yes, you failed yourself, but I doubt you'd feel that bad if it was only you, buy you shared it to others, which isn't wrong, but as I said, predictions are what you "think", others blindly trusting it and it failing shouldn't be your fault or problem.

I've had my fair share of incorrect predictions when I first started (and it was also the reason why I stuck to DCA, though it didn't stop me from making random guesses about prices every now and then). It was really difficult, and rather nerve-wracking as well since I did it in the dailies, like every minor movement. I guess my solution was just to run away since I went to DCA lmao.

This is the reason why most TA have this if and else statement.  Since we don't have the grasp of what is happening in the future, if we predict Bitcoin prices we should present it in both ways. One way is when Bitcoin market  sentiment become bullish and the other one is when Bitcoin market's bearish sentiment become worse. Also, we should always state the price in ranges since it is more likely to hit the mark than just stating an exact number.

In case my prediction is way off, I will look for the possible reason why Bitcoin price move away from my price prediction then if I happen to declare it to someone, I will admit that I was wrong and will try to explain using the found reason why Bitcoin is in different price.

I liked what Benjamin Graham said in his book “The Intelligent Investor” about the pendulum. I will replace the word “market” with the word “bitcoin”. Bitcoin is a pendulum that swings from excessive optimism to underestimation of pessimistic sentiments. Nobody knows where this pendulum will swing. Failing to predict the price of Bitcoin is quite common. We must learn to tolerate failure in prediction as part of our development process. If we don't learn to take this lightly, sooner or later it will drive us crazy and we will lose our portfolio completely.

Speculate all  you want because this is a speculative market afterall, there are really just that people who are really that too emotional when it comes to their actions and tends out to be that minding that much on which
coming into a point that whenever they do make out such bad decision or guesses then they do really get disappointed or having that kind of action which is something will really be not that goes easily.
If you do find yourself that impulsive then try to avoid out such situation on trying out to distract yourself whenever you do have that kind of impulsive reaction but if you are really not able to avoid and make out
that kind of emotional approach then just simply let it burst. For sure sooner or later you would really be getting used to it on the time that you would really be able to realize on how this market behaves.

Market is volatile and you should really get used to it so that you wont really be that highly reactive whenever it do really be able to hit up a specific level which is totally opposing on what you are predicting.
This is why its really that important on having that emotional control since you are dealing on a market which is really that unpredictable.

If you knew all that, why then do you feel frustrated about your predictions not hitting the bull's eye? Except you're one who makes a boast of your predictions under certainty to your friends that they must come to pass but they don't happen that way. Everybody in this industry knows how unpredictable it's. So, I don't see why anyone should be flummoxed if it happens otherwise.

If you're better at monthly prediction, stick to it. By the way, price prediction should serve you a purpose of knowing what to expect so you can better prepare your trades or hodlings. It should be for your growth and betterment, not necessarily for applause.

Do nothing! Don't get depressed over it.

Get to work, learn TA and then keep an eye on fundamentals. This industry is influenced mostly by news (fundamentals) than TA. However, when there's no news coming, TA takes over. That's why the knowledge of both should be a necessity for anyone in cryptos.

Don't let your wrong predictions bother you because it is not easy to predict what will happen tomorrow since you are not a seer. Bitcoin volatile price makes it unpredictable,which you know this. It is better you stop your predictions if you dont want to make more riddicule of yourself until you have known the right tools that you can use to predict the price. If I were i will only concentrate on hodling for long and not claiming one bitcoin price movement speculator because it isn't working out for you. This will make your friends not believe on bitcoin much due to your incorrect bitcoin price prediction,if they haven't made up their mind to invest yet.

Most of the time we think that we can predict the price right neglecting how the volatility of the market affects the price and possibly changes the trend. Indeed, the best thing to do is to buy at a cheaper price and hold, the wait for the price to rise before selling. But what we usually do after buying Bitcoin, we already think about making a profit right away but if we fail, we then also think it is a scam and worthless investment. In many cases this happens to us, some people have already learned from it while some have not.

Yes but not because of the high risk and also the difficulty of predicting then you avoid or think that trading is a waste of time or money, because there are also many of them who eventually achieve success as a result of learning and hard work, I say people who want to succeed in trading are only those who dare to take risks and process consistently. But yes there may be some who are interested and some who are not interested in trading at all, it goes back to them.

Oh yes, for the problem of trading signals themselves, to be honest, I also don't believe in them, they look like they really convince us and tell us to join their signal group with the lure of consistent wins, at first I was quite interested in it but when I tried it it turned out to be useless, they only made me often hit MC, it was useless. I think okay maybe there are some of them that are real but mostly now there are more fake signal providers like that, believe me they just want a few percent of your losses, there is no other purpose other than they want to make profits from all members. What you say is very true friend and I also start from now on it is better to start trading on my own with the knowledge I have from learning, remember in trading do not depend on others because it will make it difficult for you to develop,
I also just realized this.

^ Nothing, just accept the fact that BTC price is unpredictable and don't expect profit in a short period of time.
Dont focus on the price prediction but instead, hold it and have your own goal of making a profit. If you bought 1 BTC at the $30k mark price it must you will sell higher than that amount. No one can predict BTC prices correctly.

What you said is quite simple and easy to understand because you stated that price prediction is something that is very different from trading. I really agree with this because as we know that trading is only part of the way to make a profit through the market, while predicting prices is everyone's way of seeing the potential profits they can get when the price is at a certain level. And this is of course very different from trading in a matter of days because price predictions are usually aimed at several months, not just one day. So it's quite clear what you are saying.

The goal is not be correct in the market place, The goal is to make money. Remember that. Specualating price prediction is very far different from trading. As you know basic trading, there most of the time quarterly shifts, but it doesn't mean it will go to that direction. Not because price is going higher, it will go higher directly! so that oether than price prediction also predict the WHEN it will be trading.

You already know the truth about market movement so why worry yourself about it when it doesn't go your way. However prediction is not a guarantee so you have to trade with what you see and don't run into the opposite direction of the market and expecting price to meet you there, that is why you will always be disappointed.


Hope you don't force your friends to follow your prediction. You should know that this time around close to halving, the price usually don't go up.


Why? Did you take a bet on that or did you take a vow that you will be called a bastard if the prediction didn't happen. Volatility doesn't know what you have predicted on it .


No type of prediction is perfect. Do what is right, follow what the market is doing.


It is handled by licking your wound. Try again next time and don't worry too much.

We all go through this embarrassment especially when we suggest our peer or family & friends to invest in a certain coin and predict market and it miserably fails. I have learnt it hard way that we should keep our predictions and recommendations to ourselves because market is going through a tough phase wherein when we think anything is going in the right direction but all of a sudden it will change it's course. I personally feel that if we predict something and a person is losing his investment though it's his/her responsibility to do due diligence still we should be blamed for recommending something which is not accurate, I would suggest you to stop predicting long terms and rather predict as per market sentiment.  

That's the reason I avoid predictions; if I mess up, I'd rather do it myself than listen to a self-proclaimed analyst, experienced or not. Signal groups have been popping up quite a lot in the past few years, and it's frustrating that they're quite popular. Has anyone had any positive experience with them? I'm quite suspicious of them. Certainly, you can come up with some kind of prediction through their charts and statistical data, but I personally wouldn't take their word for it. Generally, I find trading stressful, and no kind of prediction can make it easier. Personally, I believe that you need to find the correct balance between risk and reward without taking into account what others claim.

Look its difficult to trade and be profitable in the long run. Generally the way the market works is that whatever the general consensus is you should do the complete opposite.

Remember after FTX how bitcoin bottomed at $15K and had a relief bounce and everybody was calling it a dead cat and to get out at $15K because its going to $10K. And guess what happened, it had a double bottom and it rallied after that.

I was around during that week and even the seasoned traders out there were calling bitcoin weak and to get out, and they were all incorrect. Its difficult to predict the market.

Just simply move on and just deal up on what are the current prices because if you do keep yourself that pushing over on what the price should be then you would really be definitely be finding yourself that getting

disappointed knowing that this market is really that something that cant be predicted then even if you do have those kind of insights or views about potential price movement or level on that particular date or year or month then it wont really be an assured thing. Tons of speculation could really be ended up on being wrong and this is where adjustments will be made. If you do find yourself that being that too impulsive
about price approach then this market isnt for you or something that you would be needing to reassess and make yourself that realize on what you are dealing with.

It do takes some more experience and time engagement with this market so that you do able to at least handle out yourself in times of volatility. There's no one on this world or in this market
will really be able to handle volatility specially if its movement is really that totally random and cant be predicted.

Well probably everyone already knows about this and even those who are new to the market must also know that no one can predict the market accurately, if anyone says they can then obviously it's just nonsense. I admit that predicting is very difficult, but if you have very high flying hours or you are a professional then maybe you will be superior to other traders in terms of predicting because you already understand almost all the habits of the market every time and that knowledge will be very helpful in finding real profits. But still in my opinion and maybe some others a professional trader also never forget their trading plan especially the limits of self-control that they have made from the beginning, you can make big profits there, but you also have to know that big risks will always follow you.

So there is the importance of self-control with a very good plan such as applying firmness in take profit and also stop los and also your mental and psychological calmness so that you stay awake or avoid the name of excessive emotion, and also with it will make it easier for you to make the right decisions. In my opinion, that's the only thing that can help us from a lot of losses or even avoid MC.

I have repeatedly had inaccurate predictions, but it doesn't cause me much stress. Reading your next reasons, I know what makes you so...
Let me guess, are your friends teasing you about your predictions? An important rule when discussing speculation with anyone is to always include some sort of disclaimer of accuracy instead of convincing them more strongly.

This is indeed a very common thing, no one can predict market prices accurately, but handling emotions when they happen is very important and we also have to learn several things in protecting assets or minimizing the risk when the direction or price prediction set is wrong.
In my opinion, patience is needed here and to put aside negative thoughts so that we can calculate more precisely or closer to future prices so that we can take the right steps.

You're not a fortune teller, you couldn't have known any better and the majority of us aren't experienced in such analysis. Predictions are hardly accurate and even if there was a way to achieve a higher accuracy, the market is extremely unpredictable and a crash or a pump may occur at any moment for a variety of reasons. It's not worth getting frustrated over a wrong expectation, some so-called analysts were even claiming that Bitcoin would have already surpassed $100,000 but it didn't and we're still discussing when and if that will ultimately happen.

Approximately a week ago I sold some Cyber that I had farmed, right at its current ATH. Did I know that it'd crash right after? No, I just felt like it was a good time sell and went with my gut instinct after observing the market for a while.

I mean for sure it is impossible to predict the market accurately because there are just too many factors that are affecting the market price that we might know, For sure it is really frustrating seeing the market drop and your predictions are not correct, but I mean its kinda normal since you can't really predict the market at all, but it just feels great if your predictions are right then you nailed it making some small profit.

For sure that is the way but you if cant bear the wrong prediction, I mean just dont make a prediction at all, I mean expectation is really the thing that is going to destroy your investment in the end if you not going to expect anything on the market then you dont have to worry about anything, Also just dont make cryptocurrency your main source of income or just dont expect anything as a return of your investment on Bitcoin, if your going to do that you could probably HODL your cryptocurrency for years, Personally in my experience its kinda work, unlike my past investment where I actually looking forward for that profit that I'm gonna make and think of the things that I can buy already expecting to earn a good profit. But in the end, you're just gonna end up selling your investment at the wrong timing if you're always expecting something.

If your ego requires the nice feels when you get it right, then ya got to put your big boy pants on when you get it wrong

You don't have to feel bad or frustrated, it is called prediction and not accurate data. Predictions fail and sometimes it is correct. Even as for me I have not predicted any bitcoin market price correctly. Op you did a mistake by telling your friends about the next move of bitcoin. Your friends will put their hope on that price and when the price you told them did not appear on the particular day which you have told them they would feel disappointed.

Anything bitcoin, deal with sensitive and not over exaggerating because it might land you for problem. Lolz. Bitcoin will not even reach $40k before this year will end but it might climbed up to 30k and even at that it is just a prediction. Don't put bitcoin price in your mind.

In early January everyone seemed very optimistic that bitcoin could easily reach $40k in the first 6 months of 2023 - but the fact is that bitcoin is still struggling today. Your prediction failed - and so did everyone else, but should you be held responsible for those wrong predictions?

I don't know what you're held accountable for that prediction - unless you actually bail someone out and get a return for it. So far I wouldn't dare make a prediction that would allow someone to incur a loss - that is intended because the price of bitcoin is difficult to predict and the market can basically move in any direction.

There's no special way to handle this kind of act of giving a wrong prediction of bitcoin price to your friends, other than making less prediction of bitcoin price to anyone, Keep an eye on the bitcoin price by not placing too much hope in it, don't get overly excited when the price rises because this will cause you to assume unwarranted profits for yourself, talk less about bitcoin with your friends, and focus on the bull run as well as how to amass more bitcoin for yourself when the price is down. 

If you keep doing this, as I have stated above. You will eventually learn how to avoid making inaccurate predictions because it is impossible for someone to correctly speculate the price of bitcoin on a monthly or quarterly basis. 

Nobody's perfect and this is what you should really be having in mind or would really be telling into yourself so that you will at least be easing the pain and frustration that you are feeling inside. Once you do have that kind of acceptance when it comes to errors and mistakes then you wont really be that be ending up to be impulsive on the time that you would be experience this. Come into your mind that the market is volatile. No one could
be able to hit up the right prediction when it comes to prices and this is why its called prediction in the first place on which this pertains about guess about on prices which it would potentially hit.
It could be ending up to be right or not which it does only really have that two possible paths to take on which it would really be just that normal that price could hit neither up or down based up on those numbers
that you had been predicting. The key on here on which you should really be able to control your emotion on the time that it would be coming because not all predictions do end up right and there are really moments
which it would really be making you sad and a little bit mix of enrage on why the price didnt move that way.

It is true that sometimes you could be incorrect and you shouldn't really worry about that, because nobody is 100% correct at all times, there will eventually be an incorrect prediction one way or another, it happens all the time.

I believe that if you could explain how common incorrect predictions are, then you could make it work and I believe that people will be fine about it if they understand it. I get that it is not going to be that easy to handle it because it is tough to do it, but it can be done one way or another. I believe that one of the hardest things is the fact that we are talking about a situation that is a lot worse and shouldn't really be seen as unlikely, it is very common and normal thing to happen.

Just accept it and analyze again, maybe you just use the wrong indicator and also better to have your predictions more realistic.
There's no perfect analysis especially on a very volatile market so better to always have your back-up plan so if the market didn't turn the way you wanted it, you still have other option to choose from. There are times that I predicted the price incorrectly, and my trade turns into a loss, I think this is normal already and trading can also be consider as gambling, there's no guaranteed profit here.

We are dealing on a speculative market on which it would really be just that normal that you would;

1. Made a wrong prediction
2. Optimistic approach
3. Pessimistic approach
4. Getting in line with other prices prediction and sentiments

Dont feel or make yourself that having that kind of disappointments because it is really just that normal that mistakes on price predictions and speculations is really that common. No man on this world would really be able to know on whats the price that we do have in future days or months or years ahead on which it would really be just not totally that devastating if you do have made out some optimistic approach.
This is why it would really be that important that emotion handling is really that relevant when it comes to this market. Everything is unsure and cant be known.

One of the main risks that you should really be preparing is on how you would really be able to adapt and go with the flow accordingly basing up on what are the movements this market could give.
Adapt and trying to get in when you do see the opportunity and sell out if you do hit up the target you are aiming for. Rinse and repeat.

One can speculate about the price of Bitcoin, but while predicting the price of Bitcoin, even if you are talking to someone about it, you should not just predict the price with all assurance that the price will definitely spike to what you have predicted. It can be very shameful when you specifically tell someone that Bitcoin will be $40k in one week's time but it fails to attain such a price or even get close. But if you say it in a way that shows that you are not sure of the price but are only being speculative, then you would not have to be shy when the price did not hit your predicted price. When talking to people about Bitcoin, I don't tell them to invest at that moment because the price will skyrocket in the next few months. I usually tell them that the price only spikes during bull runs, and no one can tell how far the price can go. I know that even experienced Bitcoiners cannot decide or be very accurate in their predictions, and it doesn't give me concern if my predictions are wrong too.

There will not to have to handle if you stop making predictions in the first place especially to your friends. The more you make predictions that turn out incorrect to your friends, they will start to trust you less, and have more reasons not to take your words seriously especially when they do not know that nobody is actually able to give correct predictions about price movement of bitcoins because of how unforeseen events can affect it.

If you cannot stop doing it, always add a disclaimer at the end of your predictions. A simple statement like, "it is not a financial advice" can go a long way.

Price predictions are never accurate and just because your predictions don't work out doesn't make you a failure. Therefore, you should not blame yourself. Crypto markets are complex and price prediction requires technical and fundamental analysis, as well as close news monitoring. Even if you do all this without interruption, the market is likely to move differently than predicted. News affects the market a lot and can invalidate predictions. For this reason, when making a price forecast, you should always consider the positive and negative situations and make your forecast accordingly. You should not be angry with yourself for your predictions.

If your friend believes that your predictions are accurate or correct in a large percentage, then he probably does not know trading and it is better for him to learn more. No one says that his trading is accurate or closer to the truth, but based on the available data, the possibility that the price will rise is high, but everything remains subject to the science of probabilities Not facts. Always learn to say that it is not investment advice and that it may cause you to lose your money.

Anyone can make predictions, but they themselves can never be 100% sure whether the predictions are correct. It is difficult to make predictions correctly because the price of bitcoin is always fluctuating, even if they are experts. There are a number of factors that make one's prediction worth considering, but that is only if there is good support in bitcoin fundamentals.

For example: If a bitcoin spot ETF is approved, then bitcoin will rise high possibly breaking $40k in 1 to 2 months or maybe less. But if they make predictions randomly without being supported by strong fundamentals, then it is difficult to consider.

Wrong in terms of price predictions for Bitcoin is actually a very common thing because it is also concerned with the future which is difficult for everyone to know. Especially when it comes to the price of Bitcoin, which basically fluctuates every year and every month, so you don't need to hide your head from your friends at this point just because you are wrong in predicting the price of Bitcoin on the market.

For me, this is a very common thing that happens to everyone and so far I think not only you are wrong in predicting the price of Bitcoin, but perhaps there are many experts who are also wrong in predicting the price of Bitcoin in the market at the moment. So there's no need to feel frustrated like that just because of the usual mistakes you make, but try to give them a better understanding of the conditions that can influence the market so that they can understand that price predictions are not always as accurate as we say.

It’s called predictions as its not always correct. It’s okay to predict wrong sometimes. As you will learn from your mistakes only. I am sure all of us when we were newbie, used to make wrong decisions or predictions. But we learnt gradually with trading and with experience. There is no fixed way to make good predictions. All you can do is just analyse the market and with time your predictions will improve. There is no alternative to this.

Because you predict what the price will do in the future doesn't mean it will go in your direction, The market generally is reactive and not predictive, meaning you take decission based on current market conditions. The market is full of uncertainty and constantly changing base on various events, like the economic factors, politics, wars and great swan like that of the coronavirus pandemic, thereby putting pressure on investors and traders to make a sudden change in decision with their portfolios and positions in the market.

Do not try to predict the price within a narrow range, but rather a broader one. Sayif such happens, the price will be about 22,000 . else, we may be between 32,000 and 41,000. Bitcoin can break a support level or two, but it is difficult to break several levels. that is the reason why price will be below a certain level for some time and therefore it will take some time and attempts to break that level, just as is happening now with the $30,000 level, which is more likely to be broken than in the past and easier in Q4 of this year.

we can say that in Q4 we will be below 40,000 and in Q1 we will be between 40,000 and 50,000.

First, you will understand that there are no right predictions that are ever made. In fact, you've found it by yourself now but don't become frustrated because that was the reality. As I made my predictions, I simply didn't think I was right as well but I have faith in crypto which makes me think that even if I was wrong, it doesn't mean that I fail. It is just to know that the market is so volatile, any time of the day or an hour it will change its course which makes us not see it. As we are here in the crypto space, better embrace the way it works rather that thinking about putting everything in our hands.

There is no need to hide your face in shame because of failed prediction. The Bitcoin price prediction is called speculation because no one knows exactly about the price movement. We just speculate and based on our speculation we make some kind of investment.

It is only when you have predicted the price and make some affirmative statement that it must be so that you will begin to hide in shame. But after your price prediction, if you make it a known fact that this is an ordinary prediction for no one knows the actual price of bitcoin at every point, it will be a kind of disclaimer to vindicate you even when other people use it as investment advice
There is no big deal continue with your prediction, but do not give people assurance that it must happen.

The only way to handle such situations is never to take the predictions you imminent way too far (like not to put your hope in it), our predictions are not meant to be trusted but we have to predict the price, investments is a high class gambling that's why as an investor you must hold onto your coins for over a long period of time before selling so you can make good profits from your asset, since gambling can't be predicted accurately so investments can't be predicted accurate, besides, if price can be precise no investor will hold for long, they will just wait for the particular time they predicted and invest that's all.
One of the reasons why we have to hold our investment for a long period of time is because Bitcoin prices are unpredictable and if we don't hold or accumulate, we won't profit big from the investment.

I want to know if you are a long-term investor or a short-term speculator? If you are a short-term speculator, you should continue to increase your knowledge and improve your analytical skills to improve making bitcoin predictions. And if you are a long-term investor who only sells bitcoin during the bull season, then why waste time making short- and medium-term price predictions? Because even if bitcoins go up in price as you predict, and you don't sell them, isn't that prediction meaningless?

Nobody can claim to be certain of their prediction, not even in the news, hence there is no such thing as an accurate prediction. The person who made the prediction will acknowledge that it was accurate if the prediction is realized. But for the time being, all forecasts regarding anyone will remain conjecture.

We therefore still can't confirm your estimate from the third quarter that Bitcoin may hit $40k per unit this month. Even if something unexpected occurs, your prediction may still come true. You are aware of how unstable and expensive the market is for Bitcoin. If you continue to believe your prognosis from January, there is nothing wrong with it.

Well your January prediction wasn’t too far off. You basically were correct that we wouldn’t make a new low and almost touched $35k.

Your prediction is actually more accurate than most of these financial advisors which have crazy predictions which are never correct.

Trading is difficult. It’s not supposed to be easy.

You must continue learning to analyze market conditions and not give up just because you have failed. A baby will not be able to walk straight away but must go through crawling, learning to stand, and learning to walk first before he can walk smoothly. And during that process, he fell many times but he got up again and didn't give up.

You have to keep trying like the baby you are. Every failure will be a success for you and you just have to keep trying. Calm yourself first and try to analyze again later.

We are all still learning to analyze and it's okay if we still analyze wrongly because that's normal.

If you depends on the prediction price of Bitcoin it will make to lose hope in cryptocurrency because i have read someone in the forum suggesting what is good about Bitcoin and i believe that bitcoin investment have to do things in it's way, so if you depends on prediction it will make you to lose attention in bitcoin when the price failed, for this kind of thing what you will do is to study about bitcoin properly and know the price before you invest it will be helpful than depending for the speculation price, but a good crypto person do not depends on suggestions of other people before it invest for cryptocurrency

That's going to be totally up to you. Not sure why you're too personally affected knowing that predicting prices is very difficult especially in shorter timespans.


Like an adult? Take a look on why you're wrong and why the strategy/indicator you used is wrong; and how you can improve it for future "predictions".

Everyone here doesn't come from the future, meaning they never know what will happen the next day let alone in the next few months. If you make predictions and analysis, then it should be good to support your investment plan. But if you are doing it for someone else, then tell them that your analysis and predictions are not financial advice.

After all, bitcoin is traded freely and it also has high volatility. Good news about adoption developments and others will make the fundamentals good, but conversely bad things will have an impact on price corrections. Currently the market is struggling to recover, but we need to be patient and it will take longer than expected.

Knowing fully well that bitcoin price is unpredictable, makes it easier for you to be able to pick up when you failed to give accurate or near accurate predictions of the future market,  and for those that we're involved in the discussion with you when you speculated the bitcoin price to reach 35k-40k already understand the fact that it was just speculation just like you can predict the result of a future football match it may happen and it may not just like in this situation.

So the best form of antidote for such feelings is by making up your mind to look away from reality regardless of whether you win or lose in your speculations since we already know that it is impossible to predict the future price due to high volatility.

Why should you even try to handle wrong predictions? It doesn't really matter if you get this right or wrong, unless you have open positions on exchanges waiting to be filled.
It's impossible to predict bitcoin's price accurately time after time. Some people manage to do it once, then fail, then get it right again and so on. You make a single prediction, fail and see it as a problem, which it is not.

Operate on facts and the facts are:
-fiat money is losing value all the time, so it's bound to be worth less in time than bitcoin, which slowly gains value due to growing cost of mining and limited supply.
-bitcoin is eventually going to surpass its ATH. Don't try to guess when, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be by the end of 2024.

If you want to “handle” your incorrect price predictions I would suggest the first step to be documenting them. Have a thread with a list of dates and amounts of your predictions. Link to posts so people can see it’s legit and track which ones are correct versus which are wrong. Hold yourself accountable. Only way I can see to do it.

Never said this to a friend about a bitcoin prediction in the middle of the year it will be $ 50K but he understands that it's a prediction if it's not right then the prediction misses and I don't promise or bet anything with this prediction even if it doesn't reach the price I said it won't be a problem.

Then what makes you feel embarrassed to meet your friends again to hide yourself? Does that prediction make your friend buy bitcoin because he believes in your prediction? If the prediction is wrong, we will ignore it. Here we are all speculating on predictions, for example at the end of the year Bitcoin will be $50K, it could be right or wrong.

It's simple: don't make them.

I've been doing this for 6 years, and, well, I make some predictions, especially in these speculation threads, but I wouldn't bet too much on them. Nor would I bet much on any others. The thing is that analysis houses that have many more tools than you to analyse also fail in their predictions. So stop making them or don't give them much reliability.

Where are you getting you data? How are you compiling it? Have you looked back 5 years and linked the news to these data points?

Please tell me you are not getting your predictions form here, youtube or reddit and the like and passing them off as data.

Maybe try to avoid sharing prediction with others or give a disclaimer so that you will not be obligated to provide accurate predictions that bind you to a commitment.

Simply you don’t get from your friend when you share prediction so let them inform that your prediction is just a speculation and not accurate since no one can give a consistent correct prediction because the price movement is influenced by a lot of factor that no one knows when it will hit the market.

I know how you feel right now and you do not have to bury your head in shame, all you just need is to learn more. Perhaps the trading strategy you are using is not accurate enough, or you might want to add strategies to complement each other. And at times, you might not be reading your strategies well or not listening to their dynamism as the price of the market changes.

Bitcoin is one of the easiest markets to predict for long and medium-term trading, and you might also want to focus more on support and resistance strategies, they are important for accurate predictions if used well.

You and only you can know the capability of your trading strategy in line with the way you use it, and as you didn't disclose the strategy, it's difficult to advise you further on it.

However, limiting the forecast to monthly prediction might make you manage your position more effectively. As for the wrong predictions, we should all prepare for contingencies when we trade, a simple exit level should have been predefined before opening a position.

For you to get the price or precisely as the price may comes you need to be good with technical analysis and also how fair are you with your candle stick reading I think all this counts as well, there are some people who may predicted prices after reading their candles to know how it could closed and open and then they could as well refer to the history of last year, last two or more then before giving out their final judgement towards the price action and movement (speculation to be precisely), that is to say it may be closer to what you predicted but won't give you the exact value of what you wanted but will not against as you wished.

think of yourself as a taxi driver. The financial loss associated with misprediction is normal, a cost of obtaining income, just like gas cost for a taxi driver. Without fuel, the taxi driver will not earn, without occiasional losses, trader wont profit. Losing is normal. you just have to know how to cut losses, cherish profits, and make sure that at the end of the day, you come out on top.


you should stop making predictions placed in any time perspective. Just bet on long/short. the market tends to be undervalued for years, overvalued for years. Good investor just bets on undervalued things and wait patiently -
and here I will quote Warren Buffett that in the market, money passes from the impatient to the patient. Predicting that the price will reach certain levels by day xx contradicts this statement. And in particular, you should stop telling your colleagues about your predictions. It doesn't matter if they turn out to be good or bad, they still hurt them. I recommend Nicolas Taleb's antifragility - this will help you understand that any "expert opinion" is harmful.

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails. I know that it is difficult to predict the market movement due to its uncertainty and also that it is not possible to consistently predict the future accurately but it still hurts when I tell it to my friends and it doesn't turn out so. In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25. Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?