Topic: How do you think the auction will affect the price, why? (Read 4454 times)

Gonna happen again!

^ Only thing clearer now is all the mined coins that have been waiting to be dumped for a few weeks will start to DUMP

Its if it happens. It may also hold above 350 in which case it would be foolish to sell.

It will become clearer now that the uncertainty regarding the auction is over.

Say that to the person with all the 10,000BTC wallets... Next week we will be down big time 

The suspense..


..


Is killing me!

i guess all we can do now is wait and see

News :




https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/540865242801405952

Really depend on the final bid of the price and how market perceived the auction.

i hope that there will be somebody trusted who placed a bid and lost, sharing what he has bidden. this way we know a minimum price per coin.

...how it affects the price... hard to say, i dont expect a big move yet... there is still the second auction. biders who lost will wait and bid again.

At the end I don't think the auction will affect the price of bitcoin , but maybe I'm wrong... let see what will happen .

Not plenty of whales, just a couple who own extremely large stashes of bitcoins and/or fiat.

They could accept the low offer they get and since no one knows about the specifics, they could say that the offer they accepted was the highest when in fact it wasn't..

I think it is possible he is dead but highly unlikely. I think he still is around and still involved in the bitcoin ecosphere.

Like I said, they will research who got the bitcoin, unless they are just sitting there on the new address doing nothing.
I never said anything about bid amounts.

What will that research tell you, other than "coin has moved from US Marshals address to other addresses"?  At best, you'll learn if all the coin was sold to a single bidder, or to multiple.  How would blockchain research looking at the blockchain tell you anything meaningful, like bid amounts?

I am pretty sure, there are some bitcoiners out there, who will research, who got the bitcoin, since the bitcoin ledger is public and you can't really hide such large sums.

Let's not forget that we won't receive any information at all concerning the auction:

Probably no reaction this time since the last time was a big disappointment.

Basically buy the rumor and sell the news.

Could you please just leave? Please.

You're missing the point bro... NOBODY in the bitcoin game does their own research or due diligence (hence the wild emotional swings the market has)
This is why nobody here even has any clue how these coins are sold. You fool's hear auction & act like you know what you are talking about.
Look deeper, do you research, check out if bitcoin is sustainable FOR YOURSELF not what mad bitcoins & coin desk says. Be serious guys, This is worse than the housing crisis.
SCAMS, FRAUD! That is all I see here, the government wants nothing to do with this soon to be worthless digital junk.
Something is already coming out to replace bitcoin & it is far from apple pay. Technology always evolves guys that's how we got bitcoin.
Move on. It's over. Wake up now while you still have a chance.
You have been warned.

Do you have reason to believe that Satoshi was/is at a significantly increased risk of death compared to the average person? If not, I don't view it as reasonable possibility - it's incredibly unlikely for the average person to die in a several year timespan.

When Bitcoins are at the moon, you won't call him a retard anymore.
I mean seriously, maybe he just had the confidence, that they will be worth more in the future and didn't care, if he payed too much in today's terms.

This isn't a ebay auction bro it's a sealed envelope auction. You put your bid in and they see who really wanted it bad enough. Last idiot who overpaid JUST to make sure they win ALL the coins was Tim Draper and that retard is down millions!

I'm not buying it, sorry.  I see no reason why the coins will sell at a level that would make arbitrage profitable.  Any bidder who allows another bidder to outbid them at a price where arbitrage is profitable is a fool.

Good time to sell & buy back at least 100$ cheaper... Ride the wave down... However low it goes!

If it goes below 350, it will not stop there and I can see it going below 300. Good time to buy for all those who believe in this.

Probably a small uptick in the price.  There are still plenty of whales who want in without slippage.

Look at the ~25k BTC bought by a big whale last month in the BIT.  Dollar cost averaged in for 2.5 million every week.

the land of the brave and the home of the free.
they can do whatever the heck they like, as is their wont.

Feds cannot control how much bidders offer. They will have sell to the highest bidder. How can they sell them as cheaply as they can?

Why not sell them all in one auction then? I'm wondering if the feds are not auctioning all the coins because they think they might get more for them in the future.

no chance, feds will sell em off as cheaply as they can

I think the auction will be won at above market price. Simply because it is difficult to reliably buy large amounts of bitcoin for large investors. This auction is a great opportunity for them. This doesn't mean potential investors will not dump the bitcoin they now have to lower the market price.

The bear whale briefly pushed the price down, but we had a nice rally straight afterwards and the price has not been pushed down that low since. It's a positive sign if someone can dump that many coins and we get a rally straight afterwards.

Like you said, Satoshi is mortal.

As such, there is a reasonable chance that he is already dead and failed to notify is friends or family about his creation and his private keys.  Therefore, it is quite possible that those bitcoins will never be moved at all.

People were new to the concept back then, though. When the news first broke nobody thought the market could handle 30,000-200,000 bitcoins. The relief when they were sold for somewhere around market price to a hodler caused a foolishly bullish pump, which clearly didn't last long.

These auctions are routine now. Nobody thinks it's the end of the world each time a new auction is announced. Therefore, there will be no relief and a pump when sell near market - the only thing that can happen is they sell lower than people expected, which could potentially cause a price decrease.

This is of course ignoring any possible pre-auction manipulation.

There are so many questions marks. We have 170,000 BTC to go from the US Marshalls - it actually doesn't seem like the market is handling these auctions very well, considering we're at 2/3 of the price when the first auction was announced. Unless the overall trajectory of the market goes from bearish to bullish (face the facts, we've been in a pure bear market since the double top last winter, despite a few bumps here and there), these auctions are just going to continue to significantly push the price down.

Satoshi is mortal. Say what you will, but almost nobody is throwing away that much money. Do people here really expect his coins to never be sold or used for their intended purpose [currency]? Is that realistic or just wishful thinking? Sure, maybe not this year, or next year, but someday it will happen. Until it does, his coins will remain a question mark scarring the decentralization of Bitcoin.

I honestly would feel more bullish about Bitcoin long-term if he dumped just dumped all his coins on the market in one fell swoop. Sure, the price would suffer short-term, but it could recover long-term.

Not bought by a bear who just wants to sell them. 

It depends, last time we didn't know at what price bitcoins were sold, we just knew that some of the bidders made very low offers in respect to the daily price. Even if this time the price will be disclosed I don't think it will affect the price that much if not for a brief period: important thing is that those bitcoins are bought and put to good use.

From what I remember it wasn't much movement ($50 or so) view the graph above. Everyone still got excited though.

I dont remember much movement over past auctions.

Why? People will use the situation to their advantage and make an artificial dump then pump. (this occurs with most big news stories relating to btc, a big market movement is created ''artificially'' by a few people (not the actual market))

I ask you your very own question:

---

As for the rest of you:






Lets take a quick look at what ACTUALLY happened last time, instead of relying on possibly faulty memories...

Last time, the auction started on June 27 and ended on June 30.  Here's the price history from the week before until the week after (June 20 through July 7):

http://i.imgur.com/x8ed6VF.png

last time the market got jittery and did so for little reason.  I doubt this time people will be so jittery. I don't expect it to change much

I think it in a different scenario. The auction will go smoothly and many bitcoin believers are competing in the auction. They will be auctioned off at high price, which will be positive sentiment for the market. Many people will rush to buy more bitcoins in the open market and it will lead to dramatical increase of the price.

Great...another one. I bet just like in July we can see a sudden price drop. But this time it might be different cause we are at the 300 support level so probably after that it will be a quick rebound back to 400-ish. If i knew earlier about the auction i would hold off my btc purchase.

I will miss Bitcoin...


when it goes to da mooon!!!

this. completely agree with those 2 satoshi and couldn't put it more succinctly myself.

OR....

massive dump of all auctioned coins immediately, causing a heavy crash and snowball effect throughout the bitcoin network.

I too think there will be a "Dump and Pump", pretty much a reverse of what's been going on lately.

Some whale will dump coins to manipulate the price for the auction, then the auction will bring out the bull whales buying up the coins instantly causing a massive spike in price.

Just my 2 Satoshis.

http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

which auction?

How do you think the auction will affect the price, why?

I think we will see a fall to sub $350 then a pump to $450.