Topic: How far is bitcoin from full adoption (100% mass adoption)? (Read 300 times)

I think 10% is the right answer in terms of mass adoption.

Remember that in order for something to be recognized, it must be categorized as legitimate in a country. If you want to see BTC being mass adopted worldwide, then it has to survive the issue of acceptability and absorption in a country. Though this may seem possible, I highly doubt that 100% mass adoption would happen even in the far future given the nature of BTC providing anonymity and freedom in transactions.

Remember that the government wants and needs control over its finances. They see cryptocurrencies as a threat to their absolute control which would hamper and reduce their effectivity.

If you mean 100% mass adoption by referring to that scenario where everyone would have a percent of BTC then it is not even near 10%. Do you know how many people in the world don't use the internet ever? According to the world Nations its 37% of the total world population. Over 86% of Americans haven't heard about cryptocurrencies at all according to a survey. More than 1 out of 3 crypto investors don't know enough about bitcoin. This data shows cryptocurrencies are still a baby in the present world. So first let us get awareness and education about crypto then we can think about crypto adoption.

What do you mean by 100% mass adoption? You need to be more specific OP on what you're trying to ask us. It could be mass adoption of storing it? Investing it? Making it as a use of payment? But if you mean is mass adoption of using/purchasing it as investing to make profits and knows how the system works as an individual. Well, my answer is not more than 5% of the total population across the globe and even in the USA they're not more than 10% who uses it.

Adoption! What do you mean by it? Do we consider investing as an adoption without knowing the technical things behind it? If yes, the possibly 10% - 15% of the population adopted it.

But if you consider the knowledge adoption, I don't see more than 3% - 4% of the population. Actual numbers can be much lesser than what I mentioned here because it is very difficult to measure it.

Also if you want to see full 100% adoption, that day will never come in reality.

looks like we will have to wait a long time to be able to see bitcoin adopted 100%, maybe it can happen in the generation after us. we see that until now there are still many conflicts from various countries, most of the countries I don't think are ready to use bitcoin with various considerations. Moreover, they have their own fiat currency which is still considered relevant for now

The idea behind the question was to compare Bitcoin and usd. The usd adoption is around 50% in the World.

I agree, this is a strong argument for very small rate (0.01%).

But there are other important indicators as well. For example: the ownership of Bitcoins. More than 100 million people have Bitcoins now - it makes about 1% of the World population. Of cause, owning does not equal full adoption.

First, Bitcoin will never get to 100% adoption, of course. Similar to cash vs cards, not everyone is living in a cashless society, and it will never happen. People will always use cash for different reasons.

Let's try to estimate where it is today.

Current population is about 8 million

There are about 800 thousand active Bitcoin addresses. Of course there are users that are not moving their coins which are not counted here, but also there are probably more than one active address per user, so those might even out.

That's about 0.001%

I reckon the real number is around that level, considering the whole world.

100% adoption? that it looks like it needs 100 years to wait...we don't know.

As for now, there is no timetable for that. Adoption will take longer far different from what we think before. We even think it was too fast and easy but seeing the situation, it moves slowly, at least there is a continuous improvement since some big establishments are into adoption and accepting crypto as a mode of payment. In this way, it helps to encourage others to make adoption as well.

We're at the very beginning days of cryptocurrency adoption. I've voted for 5% based on the calculation that were made few years back. By the time it was mentioned that around 20% of the population is aware of the technology and it's associated product bitcoin. I don't know how far this is true. Compared to those days, now we've got a massive change in the userbase and support from the global market. Based on the factor I believe the adoption will be between 3-5%

Quite far, honestly.

And I don't even think that full adoption is a reasonable goal. Even the internet doesn't have full adoption at this point given that a lot of countries don't even have stable access to electricity yet.

I'd say realistically, maybe 0.5% of the world is on the bitcoin network actively transacting, AT MOST. There is so much room for exponential growth still.

I am not really inclined to say "far from" right now. I agree with you that when we are done we are going to be in millions of dollars range but right now we are already at around 50k and isn't that proof that we are getting closer? I mean we were at few thousand dollars just a year or two ago, now our ATH is nearly 70k, so we could say that things are looking alright if you ask me.

I understand that it is not doing amazing and perfect and there are some stuff that we need to fix before we could be 100% mass adoption, but that doesn't mean that we are at 10% or lower right now, it just means that we are not at 100% yet and that's it. I am hoping to see a lot better results hopefully, it should be around 100k+ in 2022 and I would say we are clearly above 10%+ adoption rate in that case. So yes it is not there yet, but it is also not far from full adoption neither.

Does the 100% adoption is including people in China?

I believe it won't happen anytime soon, and I wonder why must and in what terms that Bitcoin must reach 100% adoption, the term you used is a little bit vague as others suggest. Even Bitcoin has been stand along after all this time, it is still early if looking at the broader perspective of the world. If I look a the bigger picture, there are still a lot of things that have a better urgency that needed to be considered rather than just simply maximizing the rate of adoption.

After reading this thread, I got about the same questions. The question posed is very streamlined and it is impossible to give even a conjectural answer to it. We do not know how the cryptocurrency will develop further and what kind of relationship it will have with the governments of states. Much is still possible now.
Bitcoin is still very poorly used as a means of payment, and there is practically no infrastructure for this at all.

Depends on what you really mean by "adoption".

Do you mean everybody "owning" some bitcoin/satoshi? Or do you mean bitcoin becoming the main currency of the world? Either way it is not happening any time soon. The second option can't even happen because of the limits of the blockchain. Had you said "crypto" instead of bitcoin, I would have said "maybe". But being used as a currency by everybody in the world is pretty much impossible for bitcoin at its current state.

Are you talking world wide ?

Well, to give an idea, the bank access rate in middle to low income countries is less than 50%. We are talking about a population where 1 person out of 2 is not having a payement card and using only cash.
So, for now a full adoption of bitcoin is just utopic.

By 100% adoption, I think you mean everyone is just transacting in bitcoin and no other currency is used in the world or even if it's used it's not at all mainstream, this sort of adoption is going to take decades if not years. Currently if I say it's 2% that too would be too much because most of the people haven't actually adopted it as a currency but mostly as an asset. So a 100% adoption is really not going to happen in many many years.

I cannot vote and choose a number between all these options because I don't know what do you exactly mean by saying 100 percent adoption. But if you compare these years to 10 years ago when none could trust bitcoin as they trust it these years you can understand we had a long road ahead but bitcoin passed many steps during all this time but having full and 100 percent adoption is kinda too much for now because in my own idea when many people people who are still using the credit cards and prefer fiat money for their transaction it's still not fully adopted. Maybe will not see that time like ever.

That's why sometimes it's important to use concrete metrics instead of broad terms like "adoption". For example, we can look at Bitcoin's usage for consumer transactions and compare it to use of Visa, or compare how much people hold Bitcoin and how much people hold gold or other assets that are traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. Also the volumes are also important - so here we can look at Bitcoin's share in investment portfolios, volume of consumer payments, etc.

I wonder why this question requires a vote. It's around 1-2% if you look at estimates of the numbers of crypto users worldwide and compare it with the total population. But, of course, there are other points to consider, such as whether we take the whole population as a reference point or perhaps only adults. We could also set a different number as 100%, assuming that smartphone adoption or Internet adoption count as 100%. Another interesting point that was mentioned in the thread is if merely owning cryptos should count, or people have to actually use them regularly. If it's about the usage, the percentage is likely to be way less than 2%. So while we live here in a crypto adoption bubble, it's important to realize that the vast majority of people don't own any cryptos.

im not sure about 100% adoption, there are many people still reject bitcoin, or hate it. its far to be total adoption, because bitcoin used as investment. when people use bitcoin as an exchange, they will make a real price for crypto, they have caste, level for every new comer and older.

"100% mass adoption" means that all people in the world switch to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is far from adoption. If that the whole world has adopted bitcoin, one bitcoin price would have been running in millions by now. Rather its price is still running in a tenth of thousands. The adoption will happen but it won't be 100% mass adoption rather it will only be a 25% adoption rate if only the whole world seems to adopt bitcoin globally. It will take years for it to get to such an adoption globally. Am less to expect such an adoption rate to happen

I can give no more than 2%. Judging from my country, Bitcoin and crypto is really unpopular. We don't have ATMs for crypto, our banks don't offer crypto services and the majority of people don't know about this technology. Maybe the situation is better in other countries. From news I know that Bitcoin is a national currency in Salvador, also different companies start accepting Bitcoin as a means of payment, but still it is too far from mass adoption.

What is the difference between owning some bitcoin and using it as a currency (regularly or not)? Basically in my understanding if you involve into bitcoin ecosystem and even you do not hold or use bitcoin for your day to day life then I assume you have adopted bitcoin. For example, you are working in crypto related job and you are getting paid in bitcoin but you encash your salary every month still I assume you adopted bitcoin. Or if you work for a bitcoin mining company but they pay you in fiats still I assume you adopted bitcoin.

For 100% adoption, we need to educate the world population first and then provide them electricity and smartphone hence I do not think even 80% adoption against world population will not be possible in next 100 years.

If you were to define adoption to being used by most people as a medium, just like how usd or rather any fiat out there is, then it'd be highly difficult to actually give an accurate answer. After all, that requires you to gather info about it in the WHOLE world, not to mention that adoption isn't as simple as 1 + 1 imo. Though it is pretty much sure that we're still far off from being adopted to the point just like how fiat is, questions that require accuracy though are on a whole different matter imo.

Besides, if we were to consider how Bitcoin is more of a self bank, a lot of people would shy away from it since they much prefer centralization to it.

There is still a huge population in every country that doesn't even know how to how to use the internet but only facebook. Operating crypto wallets will be a big step unless countries give away $30 each for installing thier centralized app.

The adoption is gradual just like the Internet back in 1997, it rapidly grow in 2002. Today I could say, mass adoption of cryptocurrency is almost like how the internet in 2003 where internet cafes are multiplying in towns. 10% likely? Web3 here we go.

I voted between 5%-10%
But unfortunately, the options are not there, so I will vote 10%.
It is still far away from the full adoption of bitcoin as many countries do not accept bitcoin or let their people use it, so it needs more time to see the adoption grow.
But this year, the adoption can grow faster than the previous years as many countries have a better internet connection that lets their people see the crypto or bitcoin ads in many sources.
If that can happen more or grow in the next year and the next trend can get people's attention, I am sure that will help the adoption process will also increase.

I would like to tend to agree, however, it's really hard to gauge as to where we really at. Maybe 20% is a big numbers already and it might takes years to really achieved a good percentage of "mass adoption".

So I guess it will be a case to case basis, some countries might have a higher percentage than others. Personally here in our country, I would say around that ball park number as well. But I can sense that there are still a lot of room to grow here in Asia.

According to what I see in social media and websites and also here in the local community, I think that Bitcoin has so far achieved about 20% of the spread, but the basic idea is that mass adoption is not just about knowledge about Bitcoin, this is not enough, there must be an adoption of the concept The real Bitcoin, I mean the idea of decentralization and maintaining privacy and financial freedom, unless these things are achieved on the ground, we cannot say that we are a fortress on the mass adoption of Bitcoin, based on the extent to which these things are achieved on the ground, I see that the ratio does not exceed 1%.

I voted for 2% and that's even a generous assessment of things observable. The truth of the matter is that despite the news about Bitcoin spreading around social media and other online platforms, when you go out of your house and talk to the people on the streets, in stores, restaurants, whatever shops, and so on, people don't know a thing about Bitcoin.

They may tell you that they might have heard or read or stumbled upon Bitcoin somewhere but they don't know what it is. We're still far from hitting mass adoption.

but comparing those crypto users to the global population, i believe we are still small in number. more than likely, a lot in the countryside or seemingly remote areas, may not have even heard about bitcoin. so going to full adoption, i dont think we will see that in our lifetime. it may increase day by day, but still a lot of these crypto users are still tied up with their fiat banking system.
i think, we just need to accept that crypto market can just co-exist with the traditional fiat system.

one can look at these data presented by chainalysis based on this article , and see for yourself where we are now in terms of global adoption

100% mass adoption? my mind is racing with what to say....

Generally people are lazy, they take what is given to them and will continue
with FIAT as long as its convenient. Generally people are not financially
literate so they dont understand the finer details of inflation so its only
the minority who will buy Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation so there are
some points as to why there will be no 100% adoption.

Another point, at the rate that some wealthy people and other Bitcoiners are buying
Bitcoin there isnt going to be a chance that everyone will be able to own it.

Although I think that no one can get the real percentage of those who has adopted bitcoin around the world now, their are many people who has adopted bitcoin and are very secret about it, and their are those who talks about it but really hasn't adopted it, but if I am tentatively forced to give my percentage of adoption of Bitcoin around the world I would say Less than 30% although this number are rising and fast.

Adoption is a function that changes with time and the speed of change represents the percentage of adoption globally. For example, the percentage of adoption of electric cars may have increased, although sales of regular cars are still higher, but if it continues at the same rate, changes will occur in a short period.

We can compare the adoption of bitcoin as the internet did in 1997 and we'll notice that adoption was faster for reasons like infrastructure, which we'll compare to things like Google, Netflix, Apple, and Tesla.


So based on the charts above, the adoption rate should not be 100% to say that Bitcoin adoption is on the rise.

Note that adoption rates in Africa are still very low.

I think a very high percentage of people have heard about Bitcoin (possibly above 40%) ...but the transition to adoption is not that easy. There are a lot of negative publicity about Bitcoin and a lot of enemies that are spreading FUD about Bitcoin, so people are very wary to adopt it.

The Technophobia also kick in when people are faced with new complex technologies, so I think that also adds to the slower adoption statistics. It will take time, so people should not expect miracles this early in the game. 

To begin with I think we are never going to see 100% of the people around the world using bitcoin for several reasons, the first and most important is that in order to use bitcoin you need access to electricity, the Internet and a computer or smartphone, and while these are requisites very easy to clear for some of us, things are not so simple in poor countries.

However I remember reading articles that speculate that we are close to 2% of the world population holding or using bitcoin, and while this may seem low, if it is true that means there are 140 million people using bitcoin, which is way more people than most fiat currencies around the world.

The adoption is far from happening since everyone is used to credit card and debit cards these days. Even with the new payment wayouts are taking away the cards! The wallets, UPI, Cardless cash and what not, all kinds of and forms of payments available throughout the world so it’s like even the paper money and physical cards are disappearing these days (rhetorical) and I think bitcoin and it’s complex nature of using it in the real world will keep it down the market.

Bitcoin is yet to be understood by many peeps around the world so I don’t think it’s so called adoption is happening at any good pace?! Let’s just pray it does not become another asset to trade and earn money through its long and hard journey. Then we will talk about it’s mass adoption.

I would like to agree on that. Especially that OP even stated full adoption. There have been a huge progress on the acknowledgement and familiarity of people with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, but its full adoption is yet to be determined unless all people in the world are actually engaging with such, and that means that it is also fully integrated in our societal systems as well.

ya.ya.yo!

I'm not even sure what the term adoption means, much less 100%.  Does adoption mean someone is using bitcoin as a substitute for fiat?  Does it mean they're using it as an investment?  Is it that they just own some for whatever reason?

People are generally not using bitcoin to buy things with, though there are certainly a small number of them doing so.  And I don't think bitcoin is ever going to get to a point where it starts to replace fiat currencies unless something seriously goes wrong with every single fiat currency in the world such that they become worthless.  That could happen to a handful of them simultaneously, but it's doubtful it'll happen globally.  So I'm comfortable ruling that out entirely.

If mass adoption means most people own bitcoin and hold it as an investment (or use it to buy things), I'm guessing the number is somewhere between 1-5%, maybe more.  Most people I know IRL are aware of bitcoin but don't own any, so an estimate of 5/100 people owning it sounds about right to me.  It's hard to tell, because bitcoin doesn't come up in conversation a lot (for me), plus people don't tend to advertise the fact that they own it, so it's difficult to estimate.

The bottom line though is that we're still nowhere near mass adoption, no matter how you define that term.

How far is the world from getting rid of poverty?
Of everyone owning a smartphone?
Of everyone having internet access and access to basic needs ?
Of everyone having small technical knowledge to buy/sell/trade cryptocurrencies?
Of the whole population not being limited by the government or something else??
This is how far the bitcoins is from the mass adoption. It's not so easy and therefore at the end of the day I do believe that we should look at the bigger picture and not just look at what bitcoins is for us! Some people might not even know about it yet. It's a complicated matter.

What do you mean by "100% mass adoption"? When all people in the world switch to Bitcoin? Then it would just be "share of global population that uses Bitcoin". Or is it percentage of some theoretical maximum of Bitcoin adoption? And what do you mean by adoption? Does it mean owning any amount of Bitcoin? Or does it only count if you regularly use it as a currency?

I think I can pick 10% rate of adoption so far. For now just few countries have made full move to adoption and also few institutions have allowed for bitcoin in their platform. Until a reasonable amount of countries starts proper adoption, hopefully from next halving.

 Please answer, how do you feel about it...