Topic: How high can BTC go? Fact-based, with the only graph you will ever need (Read 289 times)

So we hear all of this clueless speculation based on fear or greed: BTC is too expensive already! It's too late to buy! It will go to $10,000! It will be worth a million in 10 years! Yada yada yada...

But where are the facts, the numbers? How do you get to these predictions?

Let's start a thread in which we try to see how far it could go based on actual numbers of other assets. Let's ask the question:

How much of which other assets could go into BTC?

Of course, that's speculation too, but it's educated speculation. I will start out with this very interesting graph here. It shows you the market cap of BTC and many other assets, visualized in little cubes, according to their size:

http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

And yes, the graph is a bit behind, as the current market cap of BTC is not 5 billion anymore, but 44 billion at the time of this writing. Check the current BTC market cap here: https://coinmarketcap.com/

For example, the market cap of all physical gold above ground is roughly 7 trillion or 7,000 billion. So taking into consideration BTCs 44 billion market cap, BTC needs to go to about $4,300 in order for it to have 1% of golds market cap (that would be 70 billion). If BTC goes to about $43,000, it will have 10% of golds market cap.

So how much could it draw away from gold? 1%? 5%? 10%? 20%? Even more?

And how much could it draw away from stocks? Bonds? Derivatives? Other assets?

My opinion: If you do the math, you get to quite a staggering number, and you can see the huge upwards potential BTC still has. I could definitely see it taking a bit bite out of gold, let's say 10% at least, which would already let it go to $40,000. And I'm not even speaking of stocks, art, maybe even real estate and bonds here. So I think $100,000 per BTC is definitely possible, IF no terrible thing happens along the way (government restrictions, political wars within BTC, technical catastrophes, etc...). We will see.

Your guestimates, ladies and gentlemen? Which other asset classes do you think BTC could draw from, and why?

I will try to put the most interesting diagrams, observations, etc... into this OP.