Topic: How low could the next bear market move bitcoin? (Read 657 times)

Actually crypto market is unpredictable and anything is possible in this virtual market but I don't think that bitcoin will down below $10k again. If price falls in huge amount, it may down to $30k but possibility is so low. Within this year, bitcoin can reach the milestone of $100k.

Yes, you are right, although I think there are many things to see, the market has been moved by new institutional investment, but I do not think that the whales that participated in the 2017 market have entered into action, if these whales decide to make a radical move in "short", will it be possible to bring down the positions of Elon Musk, Paypal, Microestrategy? That doubt has haunted me for a long time, I believe that the current investment of those institutions will create a very high wall of prices to defend their positions, in this case, I imagine that they will not want it to fall below $50k.

As we know everything is possible on the markets but the resistance to get to that point is going to be massive, the bears are having trouble pushing the price down the 50k level so I can only imagine how many problems they will have trying to push the price down so much and this is even more true now as institutional investors will defend the price of bitcoin as they do not want their investment to put them in the red and force them to sell for a loss.

Do not try to estimate what could be the time for it to happen, and how low it could get, because you can't. If you asked people in 2017 at the start when it was 700 dollars, would bitcoin be 20k this year, almost all of them would say no, at the end of 2017 if you told people if it would be 3k again, they would say no, if you said to people last year if it would be 64k+ they would say no, when you tell people could it be under 20k they will say no as well, that's risky.

There is really nothing we can do to calculate how low it could get, it could get super low, it could stay super high, there is no price that would be guaranteed, any low price could happen and any high price could happen. Obviously we all know it won't be like 60 dollars or something, that is really surreal, there needs to be a global shutdown or something, this is why I am feeling not worried.

It wont likely happen all at once, the path to a much lower price is multiple tests and confirmation downwards.   So right now price is recovery, failing in that recovery leads further down and so on.  It snowballs as it becomes something of a trend and people add in some weight to that sell until it breaks in some way and likely overshoots downwards otherwise we are just wandering back and forth.


just quoting my past estimate because half my reason to post is to revise and decide my take on forthcoming moves, I dont think we are fully bearish by this measure:

There’s really no way that the market will go too deep since the adoption is really doing fine especially at the times like these institutional companies as well many personalities tweeting and responding in the hype, the price may go down a bit but will rise again for sure as many were still hoping to buy when the price fall atleast even a bit.

$20k, $10k, I don't know, I mean we're not sure how much it dumps if there is a bearish season again.
I was not thinking that thing this time, I was focused on the surge, the bullish season that we enjoyed for almost a year. I only think about market corrections but not seeing a huge drop to happens just like we experience in the past years(2018-2019).

If the market sustains this demand streak that we have now, bearish seems going to be impossible, I mean that only be a few chances.

Good thing that you have a plan like saving up some cash in case Bitcoin enters the bear market cause' that way you will maximize your profit. Regarding the price when we enter bear, I don't think Bitcoin will go down as $10k as well perhaps it would play between $20k-$30k something unless big hodlers sell off the majority of their stash that would really hit hard the price. Reaching $300k to a million is possible however not on this year though it would take several years and halving for it to happen, the highest price I can only think that is possible to happen this year is $100k or less. There's no indication yet that the market is going on a bear, as a matter of fact, everyone expects that this bull will run much longer so take all the Bitcoin as you can especially now that we're in a little bit of correction.

What I find slightly interesting here is the list of bearish thread titles is pretty minimal, so nobody reacting to the fall does that make it a storm in a tea cup or some indication the fallout has not yet hit especially.    Froth at the tops is when people wont shut up about 1 mil a coin and other fantastical pipe dreams and the lows might be a constant drudge of negative threads its over etc.
  We got people not caring about the fall for now anyhow which is some indicator to me, its a technical blip and reverses quick before weekly bar close perhaps or we continue in some trend down till people cry about it etc.

Seeing the current performance of Bitcoin, there is no need to worry about the price of Bitcoin going down in the near future. Because there is
no sign of a bear market yet, so we are still optimistic that currently Bitcoin can still go up much higher. Probably based on my prediction,
if the price hits the $ 100k price tag there will be a bear market. Because many Bitcoin holders have $ 100k target price for profit taking,
It is possible that if many people sell Bitcoin the price will likely fall and that may be the beginning of a bear market. Even if there is a bear market,
it is impossible for the price to drop below $ 50k, because now Bitcoin is indeed stronger in fundamentals. So the price is unlikely to fall too far.

It is very difficult for Bitcoin to get back to $ 20k, but it is very possible, some bears are waiting for the best opportunity to push it down, but I think that the bulls now will have a more expensive turn to make the movements, from the point of Institutional investment view I think that the bulls have more strength, and I do not think that institutional investment can agree to "Short" the Bitcoin market, I think it will not go down to that figure for now. It is necessary to emphasize that the more adoption there is, the more likely that bitcoin is boosted more, at the moment there is a correction in the market and it coincides with the correction of Coinbase with Coin in WALL STREET, now Wall Street is giving another face to Bitcoin.  I see that Bitcoin's downtrend is still a long way off, eventually we don't know when and how long the next accumulation stage will come, but everything is possible in Crypto.

If there's going to be a top in the near future before we experience any bear then I don't think it'll be below $100k as that price is the milestone everyone or most traders (speculators) are in look out for. The predictions and speculations has always revolves around that price.

It's going to be a major decisions maker to determine how far the bullrun will last or will the market be experiencing some bearish turnout depending on how the market gets the rejected. There's no doubt alot of investor and traders would be taking profit at that milestone and this is definitely going to cause some unbalanced in the market.

In regards to how low the market can go if the bear market was to begin, I think without any unnecessary fud like the previous pandemic, the market will be seating comfortably above$20k although that can be certain since nobody knows what tomorrow holds.

I only see few people who are really giving this kind of figure, most of us now are just like into FOMO who are predicting a higher price, but it's good to see this as after all we have some people who really understands how bitcoin move and they give more realistic predicting when things turn bearish.

A price below 20k will violate every single thing that we know about the growth of the price of bitcoin, it is a known fact that a crash of the current bull run never goes below the all time high from the previous bull run and I do not see why this tendency is not going to continue now especially when the price increase that we're going to see during the next months is going to be so high that I do not think even an 80% crash is going to be enough for us to see that price ever again

Yeah I agree, we no more see again $20k for sure. At the same time, we are going to see $100 to $400 in coming months and by next year only we are going to see heavy sell off. A crash may happen which may lead to prices to fall down up to 50% from ATH. So, we never need to worry about how lower bitcoin markets may go right now. We are into stronger bull run now and which may last until end of this year. Just enjoy the bull run which is rare and available only once in four years.

We know that technically everything is possible so the scenario that you bring will without a doubt make the price of bitcoin to crash almost overnight because people are going to panic about so many coins coming to the market and not enough money being there to absorb all of those coins, however we need to question ourselves how likely is that scenario? And I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

it's about to go up they say. if there will really be a bear market that will come soon, it's likely below $20k but not less $10k. i would however be on the lookout of a signal whether the market will do another downturn which it hasn't shown yet.

so far many are speculating that the price could really break out to more than $100K while everything seems to fall apart from a health crisis, real estate to supply chain to which the supercycle they are expecting could happen.

Last I looked my worst case scenario was around 30k to 20k and it was reasonable to be buying in small parts around there no matter how grim it seemed it could easily bounce at that point.  Right now it should dip to 58k to meet closing main market prices.
   Theres no proper hint of a bear market move, its not properly broken anything yet.  Move past 55k and stay there for daily and weekly bars and we can speak further on this with some seriousness.   Dollar index is quite slowly moving up, a sharp move up would cause more upset.  DXY basing around 92 as a low makes me think it possible but I dont trade Forex.

At current prices, the redemption of the entire annual issue will cost about $ 20 billion. This is a fairly significant amount, given that its redemption will only leave the price in place - in order for the price to rise, demand must exceed supply, but there are many sellers (owners of old coins) on the market. Therefore, it seems to me that there will not be such an easy movement as many people expect.

I do not think that Jeff Bezos will be buying 2 billion dollars worth of bitcoin every year . But we are already buying that up and that is not a problem, haven't been for a long time. We have reached to this point of 900 bitcoins per day last year on may, and it has been one full year and we have managed to go from 10k to 60k during that same period (it was even lower before that) so that means we are doing quite extremely well even without Bezos buying. Even the fact that tesla bought 1.5 billion dollars was nothing compared to how much is purchased every day but other people.

This is why crypto is awesome, it belongs to people, super rich people could come in and do nothing financially. Sure they could matter in news, Elon tweets and doge goes up, that matters, that is still a thing, but him actually buying doesn't change much at all.

I am not expecting the price of bitcoin to reach $200k but reaching hundred thousand is not impossible either but i doubt we will easily cross those valuation and we might see a correction trying to breach the $100k valuation. I have no idea what the bottom would be we can just speculate what it might be considering the past performance and one thing is certain it wont stay at the bottom valuation for long after a major correction and my guess is that the old all time high valuation would be a good bottom  .

This is the first time i am hearing about a golden asteroid and if that is true then the price of gold will go down considerably.

well let’s do the following math experiment.

we mine 144 x 6.25 coins a day on average. or 900 coins a day.

How many coins can A guy like Jeff Bezos buy daily.

At 60k a coin. x 100 it is 6 million a day in coin.

So in 1 year he would need to spend 365 x 6 = 2.16 billion.

So for as long as Bezos wants to buy BTC he can do so. So he is clearing around 10 billion every year.

Btw  many billionaires can do this.

Also gold = about 11 trillion
btc = about 1.1 trillion

One of the big time billionaires Musk is looking to partner with NASA

to check out a golden astroid in 2022. So gold could become as common as copper.

Means all the gold people have to consider leaving gold for a safer value item. BTC

It will be way easier to say when we see ATH of this cycle. Retraction will be for sure 70%. So if ATH will be $100k, then bottom will be $30k. If ATH will be $200k then bottom will be $60k.   Also dont forget that bottom happens for short time. Price fast correct higher.  Last cycle bottom was $3200, but you were able to buy Bitcoin at below $6000 for only less than half year time.

Always dependable from how you assess the market, if there's a trace of good bounce then buying

from that position is very likely good to go. It's tough though as there are no accuracy just pure

speculations and more on how the investors and traders reacts from each run and how your strong

will guides you up buying or selling your assets.

No one will know how low the bitcoin price will go down in the next bearish trend but bitcoin can go low below $50k or even $40k.
That can go down for more because we already see what happen to bitcoin before in the last years.
The last drop of bitcoin price was at $3k, so maybe the lowest bitcoin price can be at $30k-$50k.
But bitcoin is not yet reaching the highest peak price and bitcoin price is still going up and maybe the price can reach $100k this year.
I think the bitcoin price can still increase in the next year, but we will see more bitcoin volatility that will happen many times, so you need to prepare your heartbeat.

I am not saying that price will not be this or will not be that, but I can tell you easily that in 2017 intuitional investors weren’t nowhere near this level. We are talking about one of the biggest companies in the world going in 1.5 billion dollars into crypto all at once, we had nothing like that at all, we were basically 10% of the current situation at the very best. They do have the capability of stopping a big fall right now with the money they have, that is way too much money to let it be, not saying they will do that, all I am saying is that they have the power this time, in 2017 they didn't had that chance.

Plus in 2018 we had two things, one of that was mt.gox trustee selling 35k+ bitcoin and at the time that was a lot of problem because we didn't had this many people in crypto, and late 2018 we had Craight Wright fighting BCH team for ownership and that caused a lot of drop as well.

I think of something unexpected for the next coming weeks and even months, because right now the situation became so unpredictable for btc market. Though there's a significant continuous rise of price, but I feared bear market might exist so bloody. FUD was so intense and anytime it possible to pull down the entire cryptocurrency market again, just like before.
When that happens, don't let every chance to own bitcoin at cheaper value and never miss longer term holding.

Dont tend to connect out the pandemic with crypto market.Try to look on what happened way back on why bitcoin did make out some dips? Some said because of pandemic but its not actually
the main reason because the market had recovered already even though the pandemic situation becomes even more worst which does signify that it isnt the reason on why we head down there.
Same goes into that 2017 bubble burst where the market had crashed down wayback to 3k which everybody had never been anticipated for it to happen.
Anything could really happen into this market unexpectedly,even you do thought that it is impossible but it can truly happen on least expected.

Anything is possible. Back in 2017 there was institutional investors also. Especially with the launch of the BTC futures. People were thinking an BTC ETF was going to appear shortly after and look what happened.

I don't think we will see 4 digit BTC either, however anything can happen. Right now everybody is greedy. However imagine Tesla sells, Saylor sells and MtGox coins are unlocked and we can see panic very fast and who knows, maybe 4 digit BTC.

Just like what happened back in Nov 2018, everybody was assuming $6K was the bottom and look what happened.

It depends on the situation I never thought last year that Bitcoin will hit below $5k but it happens because of the circumstances, the next bear market will depend on the situation that the market will bring to the market if there is no pandemic coming again the lower the price could go down is $15k, this is my speculation, it's not a guaranty.

I think in a way similar to this, even if what we were seeing now was just a repetition of the 2017 bull market that we saw back then even a price below 10k will be basically impossible, but this time around things are completely different, institutional investors have changed the way we think of this market forever, they are not going to let go of their bitcoin as easily as the weak hands that had those bitcoins before and when we take into account the low price they entered the market they are very likely to remain in profits even if the market crashed 50% or less so they will not have too much of a reason to sell in the future.

Do you think that Bitcoin still does not start due to the indecision of some investors in gold? The market has remained at almost $ 60k with a capitalization of 1 billion dollars, while gold has a capitalization of 11 billion dollars, plus the fact that there are 18.6 million BTC currently circulating represents 11.2% more that in 2017, of course these data are extracted from an interesting article by cointelegraph, where they conclude the following:


Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-s-bitcoin-stuck-under-60-000-the-gold-market-cap-may-hold-the-answer

What I like about the article is that it corresponds to the prediction that bitcoin can reach $ 400k, it corresponds to the model established by PlanB, this is really very interesting because that scenario is more likely to occur than a bearish one.

Yeah what I said, that I don't think it will happen (price go back down below previous ATH after making new one). But if it does, it will create a big reaction among many people. Weak hands are always something of a bad effect on markets but if the strong hands turn into weak hands, then we'll see a bloodbath never seen before.

I have a prediction that bitcoin won't meet a huge correction, the pricr will just move sideaway when its price reach new all time high. Like this time, the $62.000 is an all time high and take a look for its price movement, just moving sideaway for at least two months and we haven't sesn a huge correction.

It will be like that when bitcoin price reach new all time high, yeah there are so many people who make a prediction that bitcoin price will going up again for the second time. And the target price is $100.000 and if the price is reached then most possibility for the price correction and move sideaway in the $80.000-95.000 area.

I also have a formula like this. Maybe 1/5 or 1/6th depend on ATH. So we must focus on ATH first, the peak price of Bitcoin after that we can use it as a reference, but I doubt it will be the same because today Crypto is stronger more than 4 years ago. So maybe 1/4th from ATH, I will start to buyback if reach this one

I believe Bitcoin will still be bullish for the next few months, because the Bitcoin price could go up even higher. Especially seeing the price of
Bitcoin very stable in March with never correcting below the price of $ 50k, this proves that many holders are indeed investing in Bitcoin for
the long term. So I also have no intention of selling my Bitcoin in the near future. Moreover, a lot of good news about Bitcoin has sprung up
this month, making me optimistic that Bitcoin will return to the ATH price of $ 61k in the near future.

If one day $10k below will again commence, that would be another opportunity for those who didn't give chance to bitcoin in times of uncertainties. Many of them had think that btc won't soar greatly, just like what's happening today that it reached $60k ATH. After that momentous price, many people had regrets specially those who bashed cryptocurrency as pyramiding scheme. Several negative speculations came out, but that doesn't stop the holders to pursue their plans and been earning their profit as reward of their sacrifices.

I believe that will definitely happen. I mean not happen in a sense. We reached above 20k already and I believe we are not going to see under 20k ever again like the previous ones. Whenever we end up doing will be result of that price point.

So, if we have a crash, even at a 50%+ crash we are talking about 30k right now, and that means if we drop even more we should be going under 20k but that seems like a challenge if you ask me. This is why I believe we are going to see some drop eventually, maybe in a month, maybe in a year, I don't know when but we will see a drop and in order for it to go under 20k that has to be a HUUUUUGE drop. I can't really guarantee anything because I do not want to confuse anyone, but the reality is that we are talking about something that would be very difficult to happen. This is why making decisions based on that fact makes things easier for me.

Me too. It also probably has never happened that Bitcoin makes a new ATH and then drops below the previous ATH (Like in the last rally, it went to 20k and never went below 2014's 1400). If this were to happen to Bitcoin now it would be a new experience and might cause worry to a lot of people, even long-term holders.

And it would be a huge crisis only that could cause it I think.

In any case we are in a situation where bitcoin is definitely moving to opposite direction of what people believe but that's by design. Manipulation is something that can be done here without any problem from regulators, so whales do check the charts and see where it "should" go and then wait for people to share that info and when everyone thinks it will do that those rich people actually end up doing exactly the opposite so that they would make the most money.

Personally I am expecting bitcoin markets to test $100k to $200k by end of this year and then as per 4 year long cycle of bitcoin markets, we can see bears to come in action which may lead to 50 to 70% from the ATH.

10k or 20k below will never come even How  Bearish the market shows sooner, Because this 5 digits value is the stable price and going below this is not tolerable.

Imagine the 1 trillion Market capitalization will come back to 200 billion again ? that is far from reality lol.

remember that now investors are here with true intention and not just to hype and dump like what Whales doing for the past years.

I really highly doubt that we're going to see 4 digit BTC again.

People now fully appreciate that BTC indeed operate in 4 year cycles - whereby the peaks at halvings almost always outdoes the last halving, and there is a period of relative calm in between the bull markets.

With the market a lot more mature and institutional bagholders rolling in, I wouldn't be surprised if this "bear market" turns out to be just extremely small blip in the bigger long term picture. Keep DCA'ing now, don't try to wait for the bearish sentiment as it may never come.

Hard to tell exactly the zone if we do not know where the peak is. Currently, bitcoin is around $55000-$60000 and this is good evidence that it will gonna knock the current peak to move toward another ATH. There is no sign of bearish yet thus, a detailed explanation is impossible. Even right now, you can not tell exactly what the next peak of bitcoin will be. Some said that bitcoin will hit $80000 before June while others believe bitcoin will soon surpass $100000. Personally, I always have the feeling that bitcoin is going to break every forecast and reach even an unbelievable price.

From my stance, you should buy bitcoin while it is at this low. Or you can wait to see whether bitcoin will be sold to $50000 or not. The current state of the price is in the midst of Q1 and Q2 of 2021 and it does not surprise me that companies and individuals are dumping bitcoin for a partial profit

Well I really hope I'm right and they're all wrong the charts but yes, I think we all have to be prepared in any case that this is really it for now. I think the "problem" is too much is going into defi and when that things falls apart then we will either see BTC strengthen and regular alts the same or everything comes down again like post ICO times. Who knows? We wait. And hopium.

The chances of a price below 10k are as close as zero as it can be, even a price below 20k seems impossible because it is going to break the pattern that bitcoin has established of never going below the ATH established during the previous run and I think that is going to maintain itself during this run as well, however I agree with you that a 80k to 100k price during this year could be the theoretical limit for bitcoin and as such this is not the best moment to invest since it could be wise to keep some money in hand when it goes lower than the current levels and buy bitcoin at those levels.

I agree with you. Considering the current price of Bitcoin, even the price still has a chance to go up higher, so the lowest price of Bitcoin in the next bearish season should be above $20K. Moreover, nowadays, there is much positive news in Bitcoin, big companies and popular people in the world are joining Bitcoin investment. This must improve the value of Bitcoin in the long run, I am very optimistic about this.

Why did you think that Bitcoin is at it's peak.. soon?
Lemme give you some of the news that will somehow gives enough reason that Btc is far from being on it's peak. (These are just my views and opinion anyway.)

MicroStrategy bought $15m worth of Btc at $59,000 a piece.
NBA Sacramento Kings offers Bitcoin as Salary for the players and staff.
here's another reasons why Bitcoin will continue to soar.

Bitcoin stabilizing at this current range doesn't show any signs of being bearish. So, we still can't talk about how low Bitcoin will be during the bearish season, because we simply didn't reach the peak of this bullish run yet.

As much as we want to assume safely, this is still bitcoin which is a very volatile crypto asset. But always the two sides that we're not sure of, wrong or right.
We'll never know but that's a better thing if that happens that it won't drop that much anymore.

What I learnt how to spot or buy the absolute bottom with Bitcoin is when you pretty much think "its finally dead". I lived thru this 3 times.

First time was in 2015 when it was holding the $200 support, then all of a sudden it broke support on Bitfinex and people were calling for 2 digit bitcoin. 24-48 hours later it went back over $200 and never returned. However in those 24-48 hours, people were saying bitcoin is dead.

Second time was when it broke the $6000 support back in Nov 2018. People assumed $6K would hold and it didn't. Then people assumed $5.5K would hold, then $5K, then $4K, and then when it hit $3.5K. People were calling for $2K or 3 digit bitcoin. It never happened and that was the bottom.

Last time was during the Covid19 Bitmex futures crash. There was $1 Billion worth of long liquidations and maybe $10 Million worth of bids. People were calling for bitcoin to go to $0. And if it wasn't for the exchange going down. We might of went even lower. In those hours people said that "bitcoin was finished" and it was the perfect time to buy.

So the time to buy will be when you think "bitcoin is definately finished this time".

For now, being positive helps you to encourage yourself to keep buying each time you have the capabilities, Bitcoin may drop and with your barrier it's possible as it happened before but likewise, we seen a lots of huge pumped and there are many new investors from the business side, showing the strength upon, Bitcoin more or less will pumped more and reach new ATH.


Yes, A lots of speculations, there are believers who see Bitcoin to reach $100K this year, that's really interesting if you start investing your spare money from now.

It seems that at this point everyone is clueless on the future movement of Bitcoin. Having reached it's current price it will be difficult to see it dropping very far without big investors stepping in to buy up more. Unlike most other assets there is a ceiling on the amount of Bitcoin available and there are lots of billionaires out there with nothing better to spend their money on. The fact that controlling bitcoin allows them to move money overseas more freely and with minimal oversight is almost unprecedented - it is a money launderers dream. Outside of some sort of fierce government intervention from the US, it is hard to see anything causing a substantial downside. However there is the possibility of it losing half it's current value if we were to look at the historical waves and the fact that it spiked heavily from 15k to 60k.

I wouldn't say that the chances for 10k is close to zero, it is definitely a lot lower but this is bitcoin, remember you should expect the unexpected here. I would say us reaching 100k+ and us reaching 10k is equal chances and this is coming from someone who expects bitcoin to reach 100k. In fact I can even see bitcoin reaching 100k first then reaching 10k and then it could be even something more than 100k after that, all could happen.

Now I know that sounds silly, that sounds like too much things that is "not probable" happening all back to back, but the reality is that bitcoin is a place where not probably things happen back to back all the time and that is why it is such a weird place to make money. Nobody can tell me that when price went from 9k to under 4k overnight last march people were expecting the price to reach to 60k+ levels in a year, nobody expected it, but it happened anyway.

For a bull market to start we need a sharp rejection from the top. We haven't seen it this cycle.

If a price can stabilize for a week at a level right below the top it's not a sign of a coming bear. It's a sign that we're still in the same bull market we were a month ago.

We could go back to 20 thousand but I think pretty much like OP, that we'll have to see a new high first at maybe 80 or 100 thousand.

It has a lower chance to catch up with the amount that you originally sold your BTC, as most thinks that reaching the last high since 2017 is already wild.

Unknowingly that there are lots of movements that  will happened along the way, you have to think out of the box and try what are the possibilities
that will going inside this market.

Just work with your own understanding and keep enhancing your knowledge.

And to everyone talking about the institutional money is in, so this time its different. Seems like that last part sounds familiar.

I do think there is a good chance bitcoin follows something totally wildly different this time. This time not only are there institutions, but more widespread knowledge among retail folk. AND mass money printing on top of world wide adoption of it. I hear people in India and China are getting into bitcoin which isn't something I was aware much of last time. Maybe they were there too but it seems like there is more interest from asia than last time.

I'd love for this to be the case as well, I'm still trying to accumulate more bitcoin. But lots of charts and graphs are saying we're near, if not already mid way through the top this time. But I pray you're correct. I'd actually love it to be a gradual ride up and maybe sit there without too much downside but..... I think that's just hopium.

When it comes to cryptocurrencies, there is no assurance it will stay at the same number except for stablecoins.
Your prediction could be right or not.

IMO, you are not alone with this kind of standpoint. A lot of small investors might have sold their Bitcoin at a lower price before it even went to this high amount.
Where are they? In the shadows lurking around waiting for the right time to buy it back.
It may happen but unlike before, it has lower chances.

If you think we are nearing the peak of this bull run take the number you think will be the absolute ATH for this year and reduce it by 90%, that would be some absolute bottom you can count on if you take past events as a relevant reference. Although missing the last 3+ years this table shows us what has happened in the past. Take into account that in the end the correction in 2018 was over 80%.


The question of all questions is has anything changed now? We all know that this time it's not just retail money, but a lot of institutional money that bets on BTC - but whether they can and will keep the price stable is a complete unknown.

I think it is safe to assume that it wouldn't go below $30K from now on,
I think the next bear market could drop the BTC to as low as $40K or more but it wouldn't go down below $30K anymore.

If I look at it from my point of view, this year it is possible that bitcoin could hit $ 100K (I'm guessing in December). If it had reached a high and then had to fall into a bear market, the low would not be below $ 20K, as long as the companies that adopt bitcoin (tesla, etc.) were keep holding their bitcoin.

I'm really hoping the market doesn't rally at the top right now, I really really want this to be slower and reach the top in earliest 5 or 6 months. I am kind of enjoying this as I didn't really enjoy 2017 and would just want a few more months of this. Right guys? October is the earliest I'd want the top to come. But I hope 2022 is when it happens. Too hopeful?

A quick glance at the chart, the long term supports that I see are near $39,000 and $32,000 but in a bear market supports are often useless so nobody knows where it will get down to.

$10,000 USD per Bitcoin is still possible but chances of it to happen are close to zero. I don't think that it will go down to that price especially that many companies and establishments are integrating it to their business. A bear market will happen and that is inevitable but the level where it will bounce? I don't know but it will not go below $10,000. On the other hand, Bitcoin to $300,000 or even a Million is possible base on the S2F model but it will take a long time (at least) before it will happen and definitely not this year. Just save your cash just in case the bear market will happen this year so you can buy some near the bottom.

I'm still positive that this bull market is a bigger cycle that we could reach up to $100K. For now, there is still consolidation of BTC and altcoins but once it time changes right now price could burst once again to $70K.

It's either you have moved to stablecoin already and wanting to buy when the price dips but you must consider the time has changed already and Bitcoin had reached an adoption where a regular joe can plan on investing in BTC. $10K is way too low this time.

Traditionally it will sink to 1/6th of the ATH.
Take 200k ATH and the bear will end just below 35k.

This. I don't expect a real bear market soon, unlike what the OP thinks. The normal scenario is that we continue to go up, with some drawbacks, of course, that we clearly pass $100k, maybe we will get to quite a bit more and then, maybe we can enter a bear market.

Some predictions such as the supercycle theory doubt that we will even have a bear market this cycle.

I think the absolute lowest can be where most of the retail started to buy bitcoin. Most people I knew back in 2017 actually invested in BTC at $3.5K. They never took profits at $20K and when it hit $3.5K again they just sold for break-even.

So ask yourself this. This bull market when did the majority of retail people enter. I don't think many entered at $10K and neither $15K. I do however remember many people buying at $19.5K because they all assumed it would break ATH and head to like $400K. So those people are currently sitting on lots of profit. So what will they do if it revisits $19.5K? Most likely sell at break-even and go back up again.

Possibly all the way down to 5 digits.

OP, I wouldn't worry about getting beyond $80k. Bitcoin has been building a base at $50k unlike anything we saw during the 2017 bull run. What I'm saying is that market participants are getting very used to $50,000s and $80k or even $100k really isn't that much higher at all, so the idea that hitting those prices would result in a crash is not something you need to worry about. Crashes happen when the price shoots up so high so quickly it gets completely unsustainable. It only needs to go up about 70% from this level to hit $100k, that's about the size of a solid 1 month move that would get a few weeks of correction following it, nothing close to a giant crash and bear market. If price went from $60k to like $150k in the next couple months now sure that would probably make a blow off top and crash, but I think it'll take much longer to get to that sort of price, which seems pretty clear if you look at the price action the past two months.

Seeing how the market is maturing and stabilizing leads me to think we won't have another crypto winter like we're used to. If we don't see under $50k this month or next month then I wouldn't be surprised if we never see under $50k again. Market isn't FOMOing in, the market is just gradually growing. Not even the retail market is FOMOing. The game has changed. The market is starting to mature. Look for $80k this spring, $100k+ this summer, but that's just gradual progression, nothing "peaky" about that. We could see $150k by end of year, but consider bitcoin hit $58k in February, $150k by end of year doesn't require some huge peak to happen. Maybe we'll get a moderate downturn at some point and see price drop 50% over a few months before it turns green again, but even that probably wouldn't even drop it to current price levels (assuming this downturn happens towards the end of this year or next year). Worrying about $10k or $20k or $30k just isn't realistic. The market is no longer 100% retail investors FOMOing in to something they just heard about in order to get rich quick. Market is much more "hey this is a store of value let's gradually get some exposure to it", which is not the sort of atmosphere that results in a 80% crash.

Not really sure that we are reaching the peak already, maybe we are just in the middle of it.

Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow, some modelling flow like S2F points that we will touch 6 digits in this bull run.

$10k? Yes, I highly doubt it as well, maybe we won't see $40k here because of the current hype and FOMO from institutions and big companies. Someone suggested to used DCA, maybe this thread will help you out: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/benefits-of-following-dca-dollar-cost-averaging-5168667

Below 30k, 20k, 10k, who knows.
But what's the point of being bothered about it? No matter how low it may go, we all knows it will go up during a bull market with a price twice and even thrice than the previous. It past  phase can say more.

Also, what if it never go that low? Over the years a lot of people have been expecting it to burst that low yet it keeps on booming. I feel we are sometimes worrying and creating tension when there isn't.

We don't know how far this pump ends but just think about good things as the whales are still there hyping bitcoin and adopting it for good used also the target to reach at 6 digits is not yet happening so maybe its good to believe that we can see more rather than worrying about the bear market crash.

First, try to visit the Speculation board there are tons of predictions there that may enlighten you about the movement in the market.

IMO, the $50K mark is something that we had to consider, in my own observation, the bear market doesn’t get less than 30% of the highest price achieved.  Meaning to say that it is possible for Bitcoin to go as low as $15K but never in less than that amount.

As I remember, when Bitcoin reached the $20K mark, it never went down to $5K ever again. 
Same when Bitcoin has barely started.  But again, for disclaimers, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to go down that level because it’s Bitcoin.  A very much volatile market we chose to be involved in and another factor is that the price is unpredictable.

$8K is still very possible and is a level that I personally consider as a strong support. Next to 3K. Bitcoin pretty much loitered around 8K for a very long time before  spiking to 60K recently, and I believe if the bear market sets in we can easily go back to those ranges. Just look at how easily bitcoin has broken through different resistances in the past few months. I think the same will happen when it breaks through support levels during a bear Market.

Well, bitcoin's extreme volatility means you have to think long term, not months, let alone weeks. So, although I remain confident bitcoin will still trade higher in the longer term, I think the coming weeks could be difficult for it.

You know, it's hard to know exactly. But I think there is a target for the next major low, and it's probably below $35,000, maybe down to $25,000. But it's very hard to know exactly. But we'll see.

I'd say there is a possibility that we can get back to 30k or slightly lower. The fact that the land of cryptocurrency is evolving and there are better solutions now. If BTC doesnt evolve along with the new or up and coming projects. There is a chance that it becomes obsolete in the next 5-10 years as more and more people get educated about cryptocurrencies and find the pros and cons of each of them(I hope not).

I don't think the price will go below 20k. If that price is what you eyeing to buy bitcoin, I don't think that will happen. Just my opinion. The 50k price level has very strong support, and if bitcoin will go down, I think, it will just go down to 40k no less. Just keep up with the market and see where it is heading to. There are so many things happening in crypto market right now. Institutions and big companies are trying to get a hold of their own bitcoin stash.

i think you should forget about timing the market and simply buy 50 usd worth a week for the next 50 weeks.

if that is too much buy 50 usd every other week for the next 50 weeks.
if that is too little buy 100 usd a week for the next 50 weeks.


note the key is to DCA for 50 weeks.


once you do that.  reassess your next move.

I've learned not to doubt those high prices and speculations that were given because I've seen it come to $60k which was also doubtful before. We're in crypto and things can happen as much as it can and $10k and below can still happen but I say that if there's a chance that would only be the lowest that I can think of, maybe 1%. I agree that $20k would be the possible lowest or a range up to $30k but we don't know until the peak has been really reached which seems $60k isn't the only peak.

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.


What do you guys think?