How low do you think the chinese volume will go, now that PBOC is auditing them?

mtwelve

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Quote from: BTCLovingDude on January 28, 2017, 07:23:13 AM

Quote from: Denker on January 28, 2017, 06:55:33 AM

Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 10:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

Yes I can see another attempt coming to break the $1000 again.
If we should fail we will probably go down.How much has to be seen then.
In terms of China it's not like they don't exist anymore.It's just that there role is not that much significant as many thought.I see this as a good thing.Especially for a possible future ETF approval. Very good sign for investors imo.

you speak as if it is a sports game where the athlete tries to beat a record and gives up after a while! Cheesy

price moves up based on the demand and the attention it is getting, and that is rising with new investors coming in and buying more bitcoin and also all those whales who sold a while back to create panic are not accumulating again. and price will go up because of these things.

in case market was not ready to break $1000 and by any chance there were some resistance, it will come down to previous levels (at this point it is $920) and start up again.

If you have see the typical patterns Bitcoin has had in the past, or any altcoin for that matter, if a key level is tested multiple times and met with resistance, the price tends to go down. While yes price is influenced by market demand to an extent, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is still highly speculative.

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: mtwelve on January 31, 2017, 10:16:37 AM

Quote from: d5000 on January 29, 2017, 06:14:59 PM

I think we will see the real Chinese trading volume in about two weeks.

While on the first days after the introduction of the fees the volume was still relatively high (I guess some of the traders had forgotten to turn off their bots, or were continuing to try to make profit) after January 27 it has gone even lower because of Chinese New Year. These festivities will continue until next weekend, so it will be in the second week of February where the situation will normalize and we'll see the real volume.

As for the price, I think it's a bit bearish because some part of the "to da moon myth" was based on the Chinese volume (all media saying "Chinese are moving their money into BTC", what was only true for a very small part of the population). As this has been rebutted, a part of the adoption myth is falling down. For now, I expect the price will be determined by the outcome of the blocksize war - if things continue stuck like now, I expect a drop and a retest of 780-800.

Which makes now a good time to cash out. The only thing that leaves me hesitant is the fact we're seeing a nice price increase right now. Thoughts?

The power of china in the bitcoin market was always overrated. They played a lot with the fake margins and whatnot, but the demand for bitcoin has always been real. Bitcoin can go up to 1000$+ again easily with anglosphere money only, we never needed the chinese exchanges, anglo countries can stablish new ATH themselves.

mtwelve

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Quote from: d5000 on January 29, 2017, 06:14:59 PM

I think we will see the real Chinese trading volume in about two weeks.

While on the first days after the introduction of the fees the volume was still relatively high (I guess some of the traders had forgotten to turn off their bots, or were continuing to try to make profit) after January 27 it has gone even lower because of Chinese New Year. These festivities will continue until next weekend, so it will be in the second week of February where the situation will normalize and we'll see the real volume.

As for the price, I think it's a bit bearish because some part of the "to da moon myth" was based on the Chinese volume (all media saying "Chinese are moving their money into BTC", what was only true for a very small part of the population). As this has been rebutted, a part of the adoption myth is falling down. For now, I expect the price will be determined by the outcome of the blocksize war - if things continue stuck like now, I expect a drop and a retest of 780-800.

Which makes now a good time to cash out. The only thing that leaves me hesitant is the fact we're seeing a nice price increase right now. Thoughts?

d5000

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I think we will see the real Chinese trading volume in about two weeks.

While on the first days after the introduction of the fees the volume was still relatively high (I guess some of the traders had forgotten to turn off their bots, or were continuing to try to make profit) after January 27 it has gone even lower because of Chinese New Year. These festivities will continue until next weekend, so it will be in the second week of February where the situation will normalize and we'll see the real volume.

As for the price, I think it's a bit bearish because some part of the "to da moon myth" was based on the Chinese volume (all media saying "Chinese are moving their money into BTC", what was only true for a very small part of the population). As this has been rebutted, a part of the adoption myth is falling down. For now, I expect the price will be determined by the outcome of the blocksize war - if things continue stuck like now, I expect a drop and a retest of 780-800.

BTCLovingDude

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Quote from: Denker on January 28, 2017, 06:55:33 AM

Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 10:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

Yes I can see another attempt coming to break the $1000 again.
If we should fail we will probably go down.How much has to be seen then.
In terms of China it's not like they don't exist anymore.It's just that there role is not that much significant as many thought.I see this as a good thing.Especially for a possible future ETF approval. Very good sign for investors imo.

you speak as if it is a sports game where the athlete tries to beat a record and gives up after a while! Cheesy

price moves up based on the demand and the attention it is getting, and that is rising with new investors coming in and buying more bitcoin and also all those whales who sold a while back to create panic are not accumulating again. and price will go up because of these things.

in case market was not ready to break $1000 and by any chance there were some resistance, it will come down to previous levels (at this point it is $920) and start up again.

BitFinnese

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Quote from: Qunenin on January 25, 2017, 08:31:03 AM

Quote from: BrewMaster on January 22, 2017, 12:51:55 PM

things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

Although fake volumes are fading away, still is it making any negative impact on bitcoin volume and price. No, it is not.
As i have learnt this that now bitcoin is not controlled by fake volumes. People are really interested in this and this will make bitcoin more stronger.

Yes it does not give any negative impact instead, I think it gives the opposite. Since huge fake volume is out of the circulation, I think traders will now have a more accurate prediction of the market. Though I don't think that this will effect Bitcoin Price since nothing had change just the fake volume being gone.

Denker

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Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 10:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

Yes I can see another attempt coming to break the $1000 again.
If we should fail we will probably go down.How much has to be seen then.
In terms of China it's not like they don't exist anymore.It's just that there role is not that much significant as many thought.I see this as a good thing.Especially for a possible future ETF approval. Very good sign for investors imo.

panju1

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Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 10:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

mid-high $900s isn't bad at all. We would steel need a step up from current levels.
As long as the Chinese don't decide to dump bitcoins in the changed scenario, we should be safe.

mtwelve

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Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

sportis

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I could be wrong, but after a short period nothing really will change. Of course, at first, is obvious that trading volumes will be affected until traders find the way to adapt. In the end situation shall return as is nowadays because for Chinese there are no many alternative reliable solutions to transfer abroad their fiat money.

mtwelve

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Quote from: Qunenin on January 25, 2017, 08:31:03 AM

Quote from: BrewMaster on January 22, 2017, 12:51:55 PM

things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

Although fake volumes are fading away, still is it making any negative impact on bitcoin volume and price. No, it is not.
As i have learnt this that now bitcoin is not controlled by fake volumes. People are really interested in this and this will make bitcoin more stronger.

Looks like price is testing $890, which seems to be a key support area. If we get below $890 I wouldn't be surprised if we saw price come down to the low $800's.

Qunenin

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Quote from: BrewMaster on January 22, 2017, 12:51:55 PM

things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

Although fake volumes are fading away, still is it making any negative impact on bitcoin volume and price. No, it is not.
As i have learnt this that now bitcoin is not controlled by fake volumes. People are really interested in this and this will make bitcoin more stronger.

cellard

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Quote from: silverbox on January 24, 2017, 07:03:43 PM

Volume is down around 1 to 2% of what it used to be. I did not think 98% of the chinese volume was fake.. But it sure seems that way..

The Chinese are addicted to gambling and money, it was clear that they were fucking around at ridiculous levels with all that fake volume. It would need to be researched what is considered as fake volume tho... margin trading with bitcoins you dont own is not necessary "fake" as long as both parties reach an agreement.

European Central Bank

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They have bots to reprogram on top of getting a feel for how it's gonna behave from now on.

Give it a few days before deciding what it truly looks like.

silverbox

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Volume is down around 1 to 2% of what it used to be. I did not think 98% of the chinese volume was fake.. But it sure seems that way..

1Referee

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Quote from: alyssa85 on January 22, 2017, 04:40:35 PM

They are definitely checking that no more margin trading is taking place, because the exchanges didn't have a licence to lend money. Volumes are bound to come down if there is no margin trading and fees are applied on every trade.

We should find out by the end of the week what real volume looks like on those exchanges.

Trading volumes will get affected directly, but I think the real impact will be visible after a few months. Major traders there will change their trading methods as flash trading isn't interesting anymore due to the fees that they are subject to. It surprises me that this announcement from the PBOC has lead to such a level of dumps while I think it's fantastic news. The price should have moved in opposite direction. But as always, people let the negativity come first while they don't even know what's going on. It's purely blind panic that takes over their entire mind...

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Quote from: darkangel11 on January 20, 2017, 04:17:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Is the PBOC really auditing them or just saying they are?

I think they are auditing, but it's nothing big. Have you seen the interview with Bobby Lee? He said the government is just making sure the exchanges are willing to comply and are aware of all the rules and regulations. It's just a show of force, they are not trying to shut them down or they would have done it already.

They are definitely checking that no more margin trading is taking place, because the exchanges didn't have a licence to lend money. Volumes are bound to come down if there is no margin trading and fees are applied on every trade.

We should find out by the end of the week what real volume looks like on those exchanges.

BrewMaster

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things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

romero121

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Quote from: darkangel11 on January 20, 2017, 04:17:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Is the PBOC really auditing them or just saying they are?

I think they are auditing, but it's nothing big. Have you seen the interview with Bobby Lee? He said the government is just making sure the exchanges are willing to comply and are aware of all the rules and regulations. It's just a show of force, they are not trying to shut them down or they would have done it already.

As mentioned its just an audit that makes clear about the transaction taken place through the exchange. This helps to have an accurate calculation of the bitcoin each exchange holds. Its not an effort to destroy the exchange or bitcoin functionalities. Its to have a cross check to keep the economy of the country in a stable manner in relation to the economic change caused by the bitcoin exchanges.

darkangel11

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Is the PBOC really auditing them or just saying they are?

I think they are auditing, but it's nothing big. Have you seen the interview with Bobby Lee? He said the government is just making sure the exchanges are willing to comply and are aware of all the rules and regulations. It's just a show of force, they are not trying to shut them down or they would have done it already.

cellard

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Look at the MACD indicators on the Chinese exchanges... the volume has gone down a lot, but this is the good news: The price has gone up since then, this means that the price can keep growing without the massive arbitrage that was probably going on on the markets.

Karpeles

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If all of sudden the chinese volume goes down exactly when PBOC is audicting them will looks too suspicious.

I think they will find a way to keep the volume high, for their own survival sake

European Central Bank

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Quote from: davis196 on January 18, 2017, 01:59:53 AM

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

uh, and how do you obtain 95% of alts? you need that dirty old btc to get it. they're irrevocably tied together for now. and if an alt did take the lead it would have the exact same problems.

BitcoinBarrel

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Quote from: Vaskiy on January 19, 2017, 06:38:08 AM

Quote from: davis196 on January 18, 2017, 01:59:53 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 16, 2017, 04:26:51 PM

In the end, the regulations will only cause price increases due to fees, restrictions, etc. Bitcoin will be harder to get, thus people will pay more.

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

That's true, if it goes much expensive only the large fiat holders will invest and show interest upon buying bitcoin. As quoted the focus surely turns towards altcoins. Because the price is very low comparatively as well few coins were giving good price pump these days.

What difference does the price of Bitcoin make? People want to use it because it is decentralized and practical in this digital age. You can still buy $20 worth of BTC no matter what the price.

Juggy777

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I don't think the price shall be effected as I feel the Bitcoin has already discounted the China effect, it had corrected itself after the gaint leap and it had come down. So for me now all eyes turn to America and brexit, those are the key events we should be waiting for and I feel China effect on Bitcoin temporally is over. Let's wait and see what's the new news that's takes btc up or down.

cellard

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Quote from: rogerwilco on January 19, 2017, 10:19:00 AM

Quote from: davis196 on January 18, 2017, 01:59:53 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 16, 2017, 04:26:51 PM

In the end, the regulations will only cause price increases due to fees, restrictions, etc. Bitcoin will be harder to get, thus people will pay more.

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

That's what they said about each halving too. Just saying.

It's clear that the halvings have been all positive since the beginning, so I wouldn't discuss that.

PBOC... all they do is warn people about the volatility while creating the most volatility. They have realized this so they will keep dropping those bombs to profit from the panic sellers, as long as it keeps working they will keep making those announcements.

Snorek

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Quote from: davis196 on January 18, 2017, 01:59:53 AM

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

People disappointed with bitcoin won't move to another altcoin. In the end every coin aim is to reach total adoption and Bitcoin will be always the closest cryptocurency to reach it.
If other coins will become popular they would have to be to bring in line with other payment systems and regulated in the same way bitcoin is (or will be)!

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Quote from: davis196 on January 18, 2017, 01:59:53 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 16, 2017, 04:26:51 PM

In the end, the regulations will only cause price increases due to fees, restrictions, etc. Bitcoin will be harder to get, thus people will pay more.

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

That's what they said about each halving too. Just saying.

Red-Apple

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on January 18, 2017, 02:56:09 AM

Quote from: alyssa85 on January 16, 2017, 06:10:29 PM

I do wonder where the Chinese miners will sell their coins now. They were using the huge volume of those exchanges as a way to hide their sales. I wonder if they'll go OTC now.

It's 'only' 1800 Bitcoin per day. If that is split up between a few farms, then each probably only needs to sell 500 per day.
That won't crash the market, even if they dump it at market price, which I would hope and expect they don't do!

There must be some OTC trades going on. If I were in charge of a big Bitcoin mine, I would be looking to have contracts set up to guarantee my price over a longer time period.
They could sell at market price -2% or so, or try to lock in a price, though that might be a bit more difficult when the price is so volatile!

it is more than 1800BTC because of the fees, and there are lots of miners because most of the names you see on charts for hashrate are pools and pools divide the reward among all those who are connected to them so everyone gets a small portion.

and even if they dump all they get, it will still take a bigger dump to push price down because of the resistance that grows as you go down.

and not to mention they wouldn't want price to go down.

Mikkiun

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on January 18, 2017, 02:56:09 AM

Quote from: alyssa85 on January 16, 2017, 06:10:29 PM

I do wonder where the Chinese miners will sell their coins now. They were using the huge volume of those exchanges as a way to hide their sales. I wonder if they'll go OTC now.

It's 'only' 1800 Bitcoin per day. If that is split up between a few farms, then each probably only needs to sell 500 per day.
That won't crash the market, even if they dump it at market price, which I would hope and expect they don't do!

There must be some OTC trades going on. If I were in charge of a big Bitcoin mine, I would be looking to have contracts set up to guarantee my price over a longer time period.
They could sell at market price -2% or so, or try to lock in a price, though that might be a bit more difficult when the price is so volatile!

I think there are some big dumps on those exchanges when PBOC has finished auditing and then the price will become normal and it will continue to grow up in this year . I guess it will hit 1,500$ at the end of 2017.

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Quote from: davis196 on January 18, 2017, 01:59:53 AM

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 16, 2017, 04:26:51 PM

In the end, the regulations will only cause price increases due to fees, restrictions, etc. Bitcoin will be harder to get, thus people will pay more.

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

That's true, if it goes much expensive only the large fiat holders will invest and show interest upon buying bitcoin. As quoted the focus surely turns towards altcoins. Because the price is very low comparatively as well few coins were giving good price pump these days.

NUFCrichard

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Quote from: alyssa85 on January 16, 2017, 06:10:29 PM

I do wonder where the Chinese miners will sell their coins now. They were using the huge volume of those exchanges as a way to hide their sales. I wonder if they'll go OTC now.

It's 'only' 1800 Bitcoin per day. If that is split up between a few farms, then each probably only needs to sell 500 per day.
That won't crash the market, even if they dump it at market price, which I would hope and expect they don't do!

There must be some OTC trades going on. If I were in charge of a big Bitcoin mine, I would be looking to have contracts set up to guarantee my price over a longer time period.
They could sell at market price -2% or so, or try to lock in a price, though that might be a bit more difficult when the price is so volatile!

jaberwock

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Without fake volume the chances of another Gox event will be lower, because the exchange will indeed have all the coins they are buying and selling, so they won't go bankruptcy because of this.

And Bitcoin will look more reliable without the suspicious about fake volumes.

Also there is no way to know in what extend the fall in the volume is because of fake volume going away or because people are avoiding the exchange while the routine inspection still is going on

davis196

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Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 16, 2017, 04:26:51 PM

In the end, the regulations will only cause price increases due to fees, restrictions, etc. Bitcoin will be harder to get, thus people will pay more.

I don`t think so.If bitcoin becomes harder to get and more expensive to use,i think that it will be less attractive for the people and more btc users will move to altcoins or leave the crypto community.

wikireseller_to

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Like the others said - I don't expect much influence on price. The only effect will be that 'maybe' the fake volume will go away.

RoommateAgreement

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Quote from: silverbox on January 16, 2017, 02:50:22 PM

And all that fake wash trade volume goes away..

It already appears about 1/5th the volume and still dropping..

Will this cause the price to rise or fall?

i expect a drop down too but not to western exchange volume. it deffinitely is going to be still much higher because they still have 0 fee for trading and also there are lots of people over there trading bitcoin!

and it shouldn't affect price at all, technically speaking. because if we believe it was fake volume, nothing has changed. and margin trading that war removed i doubt have any significant effect on price.

alyssa85

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I do wonder where the Chinese miners will sell their coins now. They were using the huge volume of those exchanges as a way to hide their sales. I wonder if they'll go OTC now.

BitcoinBarrel

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In the end, the regulations will only cause price increases due to fees, restrictions, etc. Bitcoin will be harder to get, thus people will pay more.

silverbox

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And all that fake wash trade volume goes away..

It already appears about 1/5th the volume and still dropping..

Will this cause the price to rise or fall?

Topic: How low do you think the chinese volume will go, now that PBOC is auditing them? (Read 2171 times)