How many bitcoins will I mine per day ?

deepceleron

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1036

Quote from: deepceleron on June 23, 2011, 04:57:19 PM

Here's the current bitcoin difficulty: http://blockexplorer.com/q/getdifficulty.

I reduced the formula down to: average BTC per Day = (megahashes per second / difficulty) * 1005.82838

Necro-bump. Due to the scheduled halfing of the block reward every four years, the new number is:

Average BTC per Day = (megahashes per second / difficulty) * 502.91419

New realistic examples using today's network stats

Radeon HD 5830:
300 Mhash/s at 3438908.96 difficulty = ( 300 / 3,439,000 ) * 502.91419 = 0.043 BTC per day
or 1.32 BTC/month ≅ $16/month

BFL Single FPGA Miner:
832 Mhash/s at 3438908.96 difficulty = ( 832 / 3,439,000 ) * 502.91419 = 0.12 BTC per day
or 3.65 BTC/month ≅ $45/month

V4Vendettas

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

@ Title12USC§411

Your in the right place and surrounded by alot of other pissed off people. o/\o

Title12USC§411

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

Quote from: BkkCoins on June 24, 2011, 10:21:27 AM

I'll be interested to see if the USD-BTC rates change when the difficulty goes up. I would think in theory there should be some adjustment as people re-interpret the value of BTC.

I am thinking the "value" of BTC ultimately will be in their inherent ease to transfer to others to accomplish transactions.

Because for example I recently needed to convert FRN (so called "USD") from a credit union account to IDR and then transmit same to a foreign bank account. The credit union - which had a so called "wire transfer" office - acted like complete idiots in terms of how may times I needed to contact them to get the job done in addition to having to pay $35 FRN to these currency hackers to transmit about $400 FRN. And I had to do a lot of splainin like who/what/where/why in addition to how much, all of which was none of these currency hackers business!

Fook FRNs, the suicide banksters and the jackals they rode in on.

V4Vendettas

sr. member

Activity: 294

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http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=22691.0

Cory

sr. member

Activity: 288

Merit: 250

I don't think that the value depends on the difficulty. It's the other way around.

BkkCoins

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1009

firstbits:1MinerQ

I'll be interested to see if the USD-BTC rates change when the difficulty goes up. I would think in theory there should be some adjustment as people re-interpret the value of BTC.

frizzl

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

The way I see it is anyone that adopted early (pre 2011) has it made if everything continues to go up. It was easy to obtain hundreds+ of BTC then. Anyone joining in the last few months has made some $ hopefully but nowhere near the earlies. They had a much better opportunity to make BTC than we do now. I haven't invested anything at all beside a new vid card and put out about 300m/h earning a measly 4 BTC in a few weeks. At this rate of mining next diff. I will be lucky to make 1 BTC a week, electricity will likely become a much higher factor I haven't worked out the exact numbers as its pretty much common sense at this point. If the network continues to rise then making BTC out of thin air for people under 500MH isn't going to be as fun. Investing the produced BTC is likely the next option for this group of miners as it simply wont be worth it to stress high end gear to pretty much break even. Breaking even is a stretch when you count in the time/risk it takes to convert BTC into your countries currency. With all the fucking bs hackers around you never know whos watching o.O

Bert

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: ribuck on June 24, 2011, 04:24:31 AM

... snip ...
Firstly, from the "Difficulty" page that you referenced on the wiki, it explicitly says "The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks".

Secondly, we can see from the history that there have seen several difficulty rises of over 50% (and one of the maximum allowed, 400%). It would be mathematically impossible to get this amount of rise if the calculation was measuring all blocks to allow for catch-up. No matter how fast the most recent 2016 blocks are mined they can't increase the total historical mining rate (since the genesis block) by a factor of 50% to 400%.

It also says "If the previous 2016 blocks took more than two weeks to find, the difficulty is reduced. If they took less than two weeks, the difficulty is increased." Which is not the case for the two examples I gave above. They took over 15 days and the difficulty still increased. Any ideas why ? Or is it time to dig through the source code on a bug hunt.

ribuck

donator

Activity: 826

Merit: 1060

Quote from: Bert on June 23, 2011, 10:44:21 AM

Quote from: ribuck on June 23, 2011, 10:37:29 AM

There's no catch-up. Each difficulty adjustment considers only the previous 2016 blocks.

Are you sure ?

Yes I'm sure.

Firstly, from the "Difficulty" page that you referenced on the wiki, it explicitly says "The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks".

Secondly, we can see from the history that there have seen several difficulty rises of over 50% (and one of the maximum allowed, 400%). It would be mathematically impossible to get this amount of rise if the calculation was measuring all blocks to allow for catch-up. No matter how fast the most recent 2016 blocks are mined they can't increase the total historical mining rate (since the genesis block) by a factor of 50% to 400%.

deepceleron

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Bert on June 23, 2011, 10:11:05 AM

In my opinion new dedicated mining rigs will rapidly become a thing of the past, if the 5% increase in hashrate a day continues. The only people who will make anything mining is people looking to buy a new computer or a new graphics card and want to reduce the cost by a bit of mining.

Thought that I would share my thinking and see if anyone can point out obvious flaws.

I suppose you also have to consider if the BTC -> USD exchange rate could also increase 5% a day..

There is more and more money invested in hardware these days fighting over the same 50 BTC prizes. The value of those new 100,800 BTC mined every 10 days or so may settle in close to the cost of all the electricity and hardware wasted to generate them, as long as the early adopters who got 10,000x more BTC per watt don't decide to cash out, at which time it will be mining game over.

Seaco

newbie

Activity: 13

Merit: 0

I talked the other day to a member that has been mining for over a year, and he stated that mining is pretty much as profitable as it was 1 year ago (difficulty and price have shown a correlation, although i wouldnt trust that it will stay that way), so id say that it is still ok to mine. Plus its not that easy to buy coins everywhere, especially in smaller countries. Consider your mining rig as low-risk coin buy, given that you can always resell the hardware, so techinally id say that the "break even" point would be for 40-50% of your hardware cost, not 100% as most people suggest.

unbanned

newbie

Activity: 7

Merit: 0

its going to be very difficult to get any machine bought today to pay itself off.

the next difficulty will be in the range of 1.4 million that should happen in about 20 hours.

deepceleron

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1036

Here's the current bitcoin difficulty: http://blockexplorer.com/q/getdifficulty.

I reduced the formula down to: average BTC per Day = (megahashes per second / difficulty) * 1005.82838

so: 100 megahashes/s at 1379223.4296725 difficulty = ( 100 / 1379223.4296725 ) * 1005.82838 = .07292715 BTC per day

Add ~1% in transaction fee wins (if paid by pool), subtract downtime, connectivity issues, and rejected block overhead, and subtract pool fees.

If you join a large pool that solves several blocks a day your results will be very close to this. If you are solo mining with a GPU, it is more like a lottery - although stats say it would average eight months to win 50 BTC at current difficulty with a good ATI GPU, you might win it tomorrow or you might never win in your lifetime.

Difficulty increases are calculated every 2016 blocks based on the past performance, which are every two weeks if the bitcoin network hashrate is constant. Since the network keeps on increasing it's computing power, the recalculation happens more often than that.

zipxavier

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: SlipperySlope on June 23, 2011, 01:01:45 PM

Take a look at this cool new bitcoin mining calculator that incorporates projected difficulty increases....

http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php

Very useful thank you.

Bert

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Very very nice, but is there a typo on the results page ? "This change is fixed in this model to every 10 days."

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Take a look at this cool new bitcoin mining calculator that incorporates projected difficulty increases....

http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php

Bert

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: ribuck on June 23, 2011, 10:37:29 AM

Your rate of bitcoin generation depends only on the difficulty level.

If a lot of other people join the network, it just means that more blocks will be solved each hour. It doesn't mean that you will solve fewer blocks.

Thanks, that makes perfect sense.

Quote from: ribuck on June 23, 2011, 10:37:29 AM

There's no catch-up. Each difficulty adjustment considers only the previous 2016 blocks.

Are you sure ?

2010-05-04 09:46:16 54432 1c13ec53 12.849183 12.50
2010-05-19 14:13:55 56448 1c159c24 11.846228 15.19
2010-05-29 13:57:28 58464 1c0f675c 16.619078 9.99
...
2011-03-09 15:25:55 112896 1b00dc31 76192.619347 10.23
2011-03-25 02:39:45 114912 1b00f339 68977.784630 15.47
2011-04-05 20:09:57 116928 1b00cbbd 82345.644112 11.73

I thought that there was something strange about the last six digits of the hex Bits value decreasing, so I double checked the difficulty by hand but the numbers are fine. By decreasing the last 6 hexadecimal numbers the difficulty increases.

ribuck

donator

Activity: 826

Merit: 1060

Your rate of bitcoin generation depends only on the difficulty level.

If a lot of other people join the network, it just means that more blocks will be solved each hour. It doesn't mean that you will solve fewer blocks.

Then, when the difficulty adjusts, the target is set back to 6 per hour.

So, when doing profitability calculations, all you need to consider is your hashing rate and the difficulty level.

Quote

So the network will continue to increase the difficulty until these missing 17.19 days have been regained.

There's no catch-up. Each difficulty adjustment considers only the previous 2016 blocks.

Bert

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Should I buy more equipment *ponder* I decided to do some simple back of the envelope calculations.

The current Network Hashrate at the time of writing this is 9486.00 Gigahashs/s

The number of bitcoins generated every day assuming that the mining rate is fixed for 2 weeks (2016 blocks) is 50 bitcoins, or a rate of one new block every 10 minutes. Over a single day this would be 50*6*24 or 7200 BTC in total.

Let's say that my mining rig can hash at 1.6 Gigahash per second.

(1.6 x 7200)/9486.00 is 1.214 BTC mined per day.

But this is assuming that the overall network hash rate is constant. But it is currently increasing at at rate of 5% every day.

So the 1.214 BTC mined today is going to decrease by about 5% every day. Tomorrow I will only have 95% of the income of today.

Tomorrow it would be 0.95 x 1.214 = 1.153 BTC
In a week it would be 0.95^7 x 1.214 = 0.85 BTC
In two weeks it would be 0.95^14 x 1.214 = 0.59 BTC
In a month it would be 0.95^(365.25/12) x 1.214 = 0.25 BTC

But again this is ignoring the increases in difficulty once every 2016 block or once every 2 weeks, if the difficulty is right. But because the sole purpose of the increases (or decreases) of the difficulty is to force the hashrate to be one new block on average every 10 minutes for two weeks this can be safely ignored. It can be ignored because the hashrate increase of the network of 5% is what the difficulty increase is trying to compensating for. To pull it up (or down) to 2016 new blocks every 14 days.

The next difficulty increase in 280 blocks (at time of writing) is estimated to increase from 877227 to 1325179 or a 51% increase.

Code:

Date and time block# 256 Bits Difficulty Days (since last increase)
------------------- ------- -------- -------------- -----
2009-01-03 18:15:05 0 1d00ffff 1.000000 0.00
2009-01-27 13:38:51 2016 1d00ffff 1.000000 23.81
2009-02-12 19:16:30 4032 1d00ffff 1.000000 16.23
2009-03-02 04:01:53 6048 1d00ffff 1.000000 17.36
2009-03-20 00:26:26 8064 1d00ffff 1.000000 17.85
2009-04-06 22:04:23 10080 1d00ffff 1.000000 17.90
2009-04-24 18:51:38 12096 1d00ffff 1.000000 17.87
2009-05-12 03:20:25 14112 1d00ffff 1.000000 17.35
2009-05-31 02:31:25 16128 1d00ffff 1.000000 18.97
2009-06-26 21:32:53 18144 1d00ffff 1.000000 26.79
2009-07-25 00:30:16 20160 1d00ffff 1.000000 28.12
2009-09-04 13:01:38 22176 1d00ffff 1.000000 41.52
2009-10-02 03:27:08 24192 1d00ffff 1.000000 27.60
2009-10-31 15:28:20 26208 1d00ffff 1.000000 29.50
2009-11-27 21:51:07 28224 1d00ffff 1.000000 27.27
2009-12-18 09:56:01 30240 1d00ffff 1.000000 20.50
2009-12-30 06:11:04 32256 1d00d86a 1.182899 11.84
2010-01-11 22:48:37 34272 1d00c428 1.305062 12.69
2010-01-25 13:07:59 36288 1d00be71 1.344224 13.60
2010-02-04 21:43:14 38304 1d008cc3 1.818648 10.36
2010-02-14 23:52:59 40320 1c654657 2.527738 10.09
2010-02-24 08:41:04 42336 1c43b3e5 3.781179 9.37
2010-03-08 01:14:33 44352 1c387f6f 4.531081 11.69
2010-03-21 22:54:24 46368 1c381375 4.565162 13.90
2010-04-01 11:07:22 48384 1c2a1115 6.085476 10.51
2010-04-12 08:39:46 50400 1c20bca7 7.819796 10.90
2010-04-21 21:52:52 52416 1c16546f 11.464315 9.55
2010-05-04 09:46:16 54432 1c13ec53 12.849183 12.50
2010-05-19 14:13:55 56448 1c159c24 11.846228 15.19
2010-05-29 13:57:28 58464 1c0f675c 16.619078 9.99
2010-06-11 23:26:26 60480 1c0eba64 17.381488 13.40
2010-06-24 12:27:26 62496 1c0d3142 19.404796 12.54
2010-07-06 01:57:44 64512 1c0ae493 23.501257 11.56
2010-07-13 08:03:57 66528 1c05a3f4 45.385822 7.25
2010-07-16 16:29:39 68544 1c0168fd 181.543289 3.35
2010-07-27 02:42:38 70560 1c010c5a 244.213223 10.43
2010-08-05 19:46:35 72576 1c00ba18 352.161209 9.71
2010-08-15 11:11:11 74592 1c00800e 511.773534 9.64
2010-08-26 23:13:23 76608 1b692098 623.386959 11.50
2010-09-08 05:04:49 78624 1b5bede6 712.884864 12.24
2010-09-19 02:04:07 80640 1b4766ed 917.830741 10.87
2010-09-28 19:58:28 82656 1b31b2a3 1318.670050 9.75
2010-10-12 05:35:05 84672 1b2f8e9d 1378.028165 13.40
2010-10-21 05:13:15 86688 1b1e7eca 2149.021814 8.98
2010-10-30 22:58:47 88704 1b153263 3091.736890 9.74
2010-11-09 12:29:28 90720 1b0e7256 4536.353723 9.56
2010-11-18 18:44:34 92736 1b098b2a 6866.898648 9.26
2010-11-30 16:37:55 94752 1b081cd2 8078.195257 11.91
2010-12-09 22:20:02 96768 1b055953 12251.999760 9.24
2010-12-21 18:34:03 98784 1b04864c 14484.162361 11.84
2011-01-03 05:10:11 100800 1b0404cb 16307.420938 12.44
2011-01-15 14:26:07 102816 1b038dee 18437.644392 12.39
2011-01-27 08:16:11 104832 1b02fa29 22012.381337 11.74
2011-02-08 04:53:20 106848 1b028552 25997.879928 11.86
2011-02-18 05:15:52 108864 1b01cc26 36459.886925 10.02
2011-02-27 09:59:20 110880 1b012dcd 55589.518126 9.20
2011-03-09 15:25:55 112896 1b00dc31 76192.619347 10.23
2011-03-25 02:39:45 114912 1b00f339 68977.784630 15.47
2011-04-05 20:09:57 116928 1b00cbbd 82345.644112 11.73
2011-04-18 07:49:36 118944 1b00b5ac 92347.590952 12.49
2011-04-30 02:53:00 120960 1b0098fa 109670.133292 11.79
2011-05-09 21:17:24 122976 1a6a93b3 157416.401843 9.77
2011-05-18 22:04:47 124992 1a44b9f2 244112.487774 9.03
2011-05-26 18:41:56 127008 1a269421 434877.045527 7.86
2011-06-06 12:25:05 129024 1a1d932f 567269.530162 10.74
2011-06-15 13:49:34 131040 1a132185 876954.493513 9.06

The average time for each of the previous 66 difficulty rounds of 2016 blocks since Bitcoin started is 13.74 days. Or in other words instead of taking 910 days to hash 133056 blocks (66 x 2016) it took 892.81 days. So the network will continue to increase the difficulty until these missing 17.19 days have been regained.

If the hash rate of the network suddenly dropped by 50% the difficulty would drop after a while. This would also mean that my hash rate of 1.6Ghash/sec would start to generated double the Bitcoin income once the missing days were regained by the system. But such a thing is extremely unlikely to happen at least in the short term.

So what does this mean for me, in the short term if I change nothing my income will drop by 5% per day. Every 15 days (compound) my Bitcoin income will half unless I am adding more graphics cards at a rate of about 25% of my hashrate every 5 days (or 50% every 9 days).

The conclusion for me is that it is becoming less and less cost effective to mine using new hardware. Assuming that the increase in overall network hashing is constant at 5% every day, if I am mining at 1.6Ghash/sec over 31 days I will have made in total 19.88 BTC (excluding power costs). If I bought a new graphics card every 5 days to add 25% mining capacity I would make 32.54 Bitcoins.

In my opinion new dedicated mining rigs will rapidly become a thing of the past, if the 5% increase in hashrate a day continues. The only people who will make anything mining is people looking to buy a new computer or a new graphics card and want to reduce the cost by a bit of mining.

After working out for myself if I should add more motherboards/graphics cards to my existing setup, I have decided against it. Not unless the exchange rate of Bitcoins increases. I could swallow the cost in the hope of it rising, but I have now decided that I will make more buying Bitcoins than buying additional hardware.

Thought that I would share my thinking and see if anyone can point out obvious flaws.

Topic: How many bitcoins will I mine per day ? (Read 17596 times)